Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

[deVries]

My fav...
Prieto Battery... 1000x more powerful, 10x longer, cheaper (December, 2009)
http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=14975

Go Doctor Amy Go!

This one is total hype & BS. She's just a young Assistant Professor in 2012 starting out in her field. Media hyperventilating three years ago, and they've got nothing to show for it today on her bio. The only research groups that are likely to make the real breakthroughs will have been researching this with big money for decades already. To think the Assistant Professor is going solve our battery needs is a joke. No real funding or enough brain power to make a dent, IMO.

The other sad truth about Wall Street is it's geared for places like MIT, Harvard, Stanford, etc. That's where the real seed money goes and continues to get funding long-term to the point of going public as an IPO. That's the way the system works. It's rigged that way. Not fair, but that's the way it is.

[pdf]

This one is total hype & BS. She's just a young Assistant Professor in 2012 starting out in her field. Media hyperventilating three years ago, and they've got nothing to show for it today on her bio. The only research groups that are likely to make the real breakthroughs will have been researching this with big money for decades already. To think the Assistant Professor is going solve our battery needs is a joke. No real funding or enough brain power to make a dent, IMO.

True, dat.

[migueralliart]

If only we could get the goblins(inventors) of A123 to build us another masterpiece but this time with more power density but keeping the same discharge rate. That would be awesome.

[smudger1956]

My take..With conspiracy head on...I think we will be drip fed battery tech advancements till the announcement of low worldwide oil reserves.
Buy shares in rare earth mining........

[flathill]

Thus far, batteries made with EM1 and CM1 have expected power and safety performance comparable to lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4), while also handling more than 100 charge/discharge cycles in full-cell testing.

Obviously, this is no breakthrough at a 100 cycles until we get to cycles in the 2,500+ range. Maybe they've gone beyond that, but it would seem a good idea to publish that too.

Obviously you lack critical reading skills and simply skim read to find the negative
http://www.wildcatdiscovery.com/images/wildcat em1 data sheet - feb 2012.pdf

[deVries]

Seems to me that the real problem is more related to cost per wh x cycle life than just energy density. Nobody wants to pay 10 thou for a battery for a car. Get a bike battery down to $200 retail and it will be a game changer for all classes of EV's. I keep hoping golf carts will finally adopt lifepo4, and drive the cost down with production numbers. Lotta freaking golf carts in the usa.

Yes, this is what I'm suggesting too in my OP. When will energy density "double" for no more than what we pay now, which is another way of saying when will the price be cut in half by what it is today. But, that is only half the problem to get anywhere, literally. We must have the doubling of energy density for the same weight/volume we have today too.

Range is far too limited *and* expensive. The EV industry will crash and burn with today's technology. It's nowhere near where it needs to be in order to succeed long-term. As Luke suggests, we now have big players starting to get into the game, so there is far more R&D funding being made available. But, there is a danger with this strategy too. A123 is a kind of "incubator business" that has gotten a lot of funding from "fossil fuel" based automotive companies such as GM, etc. Notice how expensive and exclusive these batteries are for our EV projects IF we can even get the batteries. A lot of exclusive "battery capture" is going on to keep the technology exclusively to themselves too. This is not necessarily good for the consumer ultimately as far as driving prices down rapidly or getting to end users outside exclusive supply "clamps".

If the Tesla EV car maker fails, then this new technology may not pressure our Big 3 automakers to innovate enough. It could kill EV tech all over again. EV battery companies need to be totally independent, not dependent upon, car maker investments and exclusive market capture.

[deVries]

Thus far, batteries made with EM1 and CM1 have expected power and safety performance comparable to lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4), while also handling more than 100 charge/discharge cycles in full-cell testing.

Obviously, this is no breakthrough at a 100 cycles until we get to cycles in the 2,500+ range. Maybe they've gone beyond that, but it would seem a good idea to publish that too.

Obviously you lack critical reading skills and simply skim read to find the negative
http://www.wildcatdiscovery.com/images/wildcat em1 data sheet - feb 2012.pdf

This is disingenuous to suggest later that I lack critical reading skills by then providing new information afterwards a (non-working) link to a data sheet that was *not* in your previous post that I quoted from. I could only comment on what you posted & provided before, which I quoted from authentically with reasoned critique. Your characterization that I "lack critical reading skills and simply skim read to find the negative" is simply false & misleading.

[dogman]

I still think density itself is not really such a big problem. We can design a car to fit a large battery if we choose to, as Tesla did. But the problems remain of how to afford a 100 mile range at 75 mph.

What we really need is to get out of the small A123 factory and into the really huge one. Not that I think lifepo4 is the final answer. We just need much cheaper stuff at a true 5c rate, that lasts 5000 cycles at a 90% dod. Give me that cheap, and I'll find the room for it even if it takes a trailer. You'd have a battery that you wanted in a trailer, because it would oulast 5-6 EV's.

[deVries]

Here is a good link that works from "flathill"... Wildcat

I looked at that datasheet, and I'm certainly *not* impressed with the data provided. Why?

Their four listed starting baselines for Cycle Life are 20 cycles, 50 cycles, 160 cycles, and 200 cycles. Are these four baselines reasonable to start with?

I say, hell no!

Let's have starting baselines with 1,000, 2,000, and 3,000 cycles. AND, then, let's see what their additive chemicals do to extend those baseline cycles! Yeah, now, THAT would be some real useful data that maybe could be taken to the bank.

You bet I'm skeptical of Wildcat Discovery. WTF. Show me the data!

[deVries]

I still think density itself is not really such a big problem. We can design a car to fit a large battery if we choose to, as Tesla did. But the problems remain of how to afford a 100 mile range at 75 mph.

I beg to completely disagree with your opinion. Besides, this thread topic is "When Will Battery Capacity Double".

But, seriously, a 9kWh battery will only get a 350-lb motorcycle down the road @ 75mph in perfectly flat no headwind conditions, i.e. *not* real world, for about 55 minutes, because it will have 5 minutes more to exit for a recharge "gas station" before running out of electrons. Sorry, this is a perfect reason WHY energy density needs to double, triple, and quadruple, while the price remains the same. That is a 50% price drop with a double in energy density, btw.

If you think the EV industry is going to grow leaps & bounds with current tech at half the price, then I think you're dreaming & sadly mistaken too. That means only slow growth AND a flat-line no growth, because range is nowhere near good enough for the weight as it is now.

Maybe you will joke and say you'll drive a trailer full of half-price batteries, but 99% of everyone else will *not* do that kind of joking around. I do love that image of you doing that though.

Give me that cheap, and I'll find the room for it even if it takes a trailer. You'd have a battery that you wanted in a trailer, because it would oulast 5-6 EV's.

We just need much cheaper stuff at a true 5c rate, that lasts 5000 cycles at a 90% dod. Give me that cheap...

That is not the current spec for A123, so you've already upped the ante beyond your half-price battery too. You are asking for higher energy density now, aren't you.

[flathill]

"DeVries":

Dude once again you missing the point

Did you see the Temperature column?

even the best EIG NMC (what Zero uses) cells are "only" rated for 1000 cycles at 25 Centigrade with a FOUR year calendar life. Try running NMC cells in Iraq without active cooling and you'll see why the military is funding Wildcat

Wildcat is baselining NMC at 50 Centigrade because NMC cells do not last long at high temp.

The fact they have a 5V (4.9V) cell that does 1000 cyles at 30 Centigrade is huge (1C discharge)

The point of all this is now we are in a 5V land now that there are a couple 5V stable electrolytes out there in the wild

"this is just the beginning – because the EM1 electrolyte is stable at 5-volt operation, it opens the door to development of a new world of cathode materials that should bring even greater advances.”

[deVries]

"DeVries":

Dude once again you missing the point

Did you see the Temperature column?

even the best EIG NMC (what Zero uses) cells are "only" rated for 1000 cycles at 25 Centigrade with a FOUR year calendar life. Try running NMC cells in Iraq without active cooling and you'll see why the military is funding Wildcat

Wildcat is baselining NMC at 50 Centigrade because NMC cells do not last long at high temp.

The fact they have a 5V (4.9V) cell that does 1000 cyles at 30 Centigrade is huge (1C discharge)

The point of all this is now we are in a 5V land now that there are a couple 5V stable electrolytes out there in the wild

"this is just the beginning – because the EM1 electrolyte is stable at 5-volt operation, it opens the door to development of a new world of cathode materials that should bring even greater advances.”

I'm not suggesting these aren't positive developments. These are plus factors for "hot" operating environments. So, yeah, the military or desert people might see that as a real advantage.

1,000 cycles is *not* good enough for normal operating environments. Current tech has already standardized on way more cycles.

This company makes chemical additives to extend battery life, not a retail 5v battery, so I want to know how many cycles it will extend in current A123 batteries that do thousands of cycles now. I want to know what it will extend in the next-gen 5v battery with a baseline starting at 1,000, 2,000, and 3,000 cycles.

I don't give a damn about military use or the hot desert and low cycle life of 440 to 1,000 cycles even it it's a 5v battery in overheated environments. That is not what a non-military typical buyer wants for his EV vehicle.

That data you referenced seems promising, maybe, but I'm highly skeptical of what it shows me now! Whoopy for the military.

[flathill]

Once you get to 1000 cycles (at 100% DOD) the calendar life becomes the limiting factor (since at normal use DOD the cycle life will be more than the calendar life in most EV applications)

"The Arrhenius equation defines the relationship between temperature and the rate at which a chemical action proceeds. It shows that the rate increases exponentially as temperature rises. As a rule of thumb, for every 10 °C increase in temperature the reaction rate doubles. Thus, an hour at 35 °C is equivalent in battery life to two hours at 25 °C. Heat is the enemy of the battery and as Arrhenius shows, even small increases in temperature will have a major influence on battery performance affecting both the desired and undesired chemical reactions."

Now look at the electrochemical stability plot in the wildcat pdf and you'll see why this development is crucial for all cells

But yes the LiFe A123 is an excellent cell with both long cycle and calendar life, the wildcat CM1 is LiFe with a 70%! increase in volumetric density, and HV operation=less cells=less connections=less total pack weight

[deVries]

Once you get to 1000 cycles the calendar life becomes the limiting factor

"The Arrhenius equation defines the relationship between temperature and the rate at which a chemical action proceeds. It shows that the rate increases exponentially as temperature rises. As a rule of thumb, for every 10 °C increase in temperature the reaction rate doubles. Thus, an hour at 35 °C is equivalent in battery life to two hours at 25 °C. Heat is the enemy of the battery and as Arrhenius shows, even small increases in temperature will have a major influence on battery performance affecting both the desired and undesired chemical reactions."

Now look at the electrochemical stability plot in the wildcat pdf and you'll see why this development is crucial for all cells

But yes the LiFe A123 is an excellent cell with both long cycle and calendar life, the wildcat CM1 is LiFe with a 70%! increase in volumetric density

This makes sense, but until Wildcat can show me the data for 1,000, 2,000, and 3,000 cycle life "extensions", whether it's calendar based and/or cycles based, I'm skeptical. Don't really care about the heat equations without the Real World data that I want well beyond 1,000 cycles of CM1 at normal operating temperatures. Show me the Real World data...

For example, does CM1 extend A123 battery cycle life another 1,000, 2,000, 5,000 cycles or not? Tell me. Well, you can't, because they've got nothing Real World showing any battery life extension for current battery maker's batteries that are selling on the open market now.

They're going for the military gold, because there's no competition there with big money contract awards sticking it to the taxpayer. Let's see the cheap consumer side of these products?

Again, seems promising, but we/I need data of the kind I'm asking for too. That data sheet does not have what I'm asking for, and what I'm asking for is reasonable. IMO.

[flathill]

Dude your still not getting it
It is a 5V stable electrolyte good for 1000cycles
the fact it improves lower voltage cell stability is just gravy on top

[deVries]

It is a 5V stable electrolyte good for 1000cycles

Well, it is an additive; not a finished product. 1,000 cycles is not good enough, IMO. Price is unknown.

the fact it improves lower voltage cell stability is just gravy on top

Really, where is the Real World data for that in cycles beyond 1,000 vs other commercial products already being sold? In other words, see my previous post just above your post above I quoted here.

I'm just waiting for different and new data before I could become a believer in their products.

[flathill]

It is a 5V stable electrolyte good for 1000cycles

Well, it is an additive; not a finished product. 1,000 cycles is not good enough, IMO. Price is unknown.

the fact it improves lower voltage cell stability is just gravy on top

Really, where is the Real World data for that in cycles beyond 1,000 vs other commercial products already being sold? In other words, see my previous post just above your post above I quoted here.

I'm just waiting for different and new data before I could become a believer in their products.

You are never going to know which batteries use Wildcat's electrolyte.

I guess you won't be buying a Zero as it's 1000cycle (100%DOD to 80%) battery is only rated for 300,000 miles in the real world, or a Telsa Roadster (700 cycle battery, many 100,000+ miles cars on the road)
I'm sure you plan on going more than that on your ebike

[deVries]

You are never going to know which batteries use Wildcat's electrolyte.

Well then, it will be very hard to know just how good their products really are IF they can't show me some kind of Real World comparison between Battery A and Battery W-ildcat additive inside. I don't need to see the Brand Names. I do need to see the data that shows their product beats the competition with specific performance data for 1,000, 2,000, 3,000 cycles. Why not? A123 has that kind of data available. Wildcat can too!

I guess you won't be buying a Zero as it's 1000cycle (100%DOD to 80%) battery is only rated for 300,000 miles in the real world, or a Telsa Roadster (700 cycle battery, many 100,000+ miles cars on the road)
I'm sure you plan on going more than that on your ebike

I've never brought-up the subject that this has anything to do with an eBike. It has plenty to do with 250-lb+ Motorcycles & Scooters & larger vehicles, of course.

As a minimum requirement, I want a 75mph 350-lb Motorcycle that can run 120 minutes continuous hwy at that speed for the same price of the 9kWh ZERO battery, which can now run for barely 60 minutes hwy in optimal conditions @ 75mph. I want Real World at double what that ZERO can do today.

This thread is When Will Battery Capacity Double? I pick the ZERO as my target example of what I want. No need to roll your eyes about that, imo.

BOTH EDITS: I would, especially, also want to know how much voltage sag there is under load between 800-1,500 cycles vs new. I agree going beyond 2,000 cycles is not nearly as big a deal as capacity & performance under load is from 800-1,500 cycles. Calendar life would be more important after 1,500 cycles. IMO.

It seems Wildcat may have some additives that may get us closer to the answer of "when". Show me that data, so I can believe in a "Wildcat" too.

[flathill]

Dude you're clueless.

[spinningmagnets]

IMHO...the technology is in the lab right now...there are other issues. If some company R&D department finds a cheap and available way to double capacity, it will be patented. It will be an upscale upgrade for the first few years. There will be a struggle with foreign (Chinese?) reverse engineering, which will bring competing products to the market.

There will soon be competing technologies. Nobody wants to make a long-term commitment to a new patented type, just to find out a few months later that they bought into Betamax, instead of VHS, or HD-DVD instead of Blueray...although...sooner or later you have to make a choice. Also, nobody wants to make a long-term commitment to a new patented battery technology just to find out they invested in Tidalforce (great product, went bankrupt).

As much as I don't like Chinese industrial espionage and patent-piracy...they move new tech quickly into the market and allow the big players to see what a large group of actual buyers are willing to pay real dollars for.

I just bought a variety of unique Chinese flashlights to test, nothing like them in the US market, and they were cheap. A tiny 1000-lumen light using a 14500 3.6V cell with a T6 emitter. Once I find what I like, I'm more than happy to support US products, but...how long should I wait?

[deVries]

Dude you're clueless.

Usually, companies that develop products for the military are 10x-100x more expensive than consumer products. It's the gold-road for R&D at extreme profits. Clueless? Let's see them make it in the consumer market to just give you *one* clue of mine I already hinted at too.

Here's Luke's post on that same thread you posted in on May 11, 2011:

There are 5v and 6v lithium chemistries.

The problem is cycle life. If you're a primary cell, or just used for a mission, cycle life doesn't matter.

So, Luke sees the problem as cycle life too. Hmm. Now there's a clue too. Mainly, though, see the bold text below. Wildcat is only publishing 25%-65% better battery performance in cars that use a 5v battery. Is that double capacity than what is available now? Just to offer a clue: Shouldn't that read instead a 100% performance boost in order to double capacity from what we have now?

Your very first post on ES was on May 11, 2011 & has to do with Wildcat:

The tech is real and not just for primary batts. The tech was "invented" the same way humans usually "invent", by trying everything and discovering universal principles, but now we can try faster 675 Wh/kg!!!

March 14, 2011 09:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time
Wildcat Discovery Technologies Discloses Fundamental Advances in Rechargeable Battery Materials Technology

Newly developed 5-volt electrolyte, cathode material boost battery performance 25-65 percent in cars, electronics, other applications

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fundamental advances in rechargeable battery technology disclosed today by Wildcat Discovery Technologies could result in battery performance improvements of 25 to 65 percent or more in electric cars, portable electronics, military, medical devices, and other demanding applications.

“This is a breakthrough discovery by our development team, which can lead to batteries capable of storing much more energy than current materials allow”

Wildcat has developed a pair of new materials that set new standards for the rechargeable battery industry, by providing unprecedented energy density of more than 675 Wh/kg while operating in full cells at 5 volts – levels beyond today’s industry standards.

Wildcat’s EM1, a novel 5V electrolyte formulation, and CM1, a new high voltage cathode material, have been shown to deliver a 25 percent improvement in gravimetric energy density, and a 61 percent improvement in volumetric energy density in the electrode, compared with existing state-of-the-art battery materials with comparable attributes. Thus far, batteries made with EM1 and CM1 have expected power and safety performance comparable to lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4), while also handling more than 100 charge/discharge cycles in full-cell testing.

“This is a breakthrough discovery by our development team, which can lead to batteries capable of storing much more energy than current materials allow,” said Wildcat CEO Mark Gresser. “When batteries hold more energy, it creates new options for design engineers - electric cars can go farther, tablets, laptops and smartphones can be smaller with no loss of runtime, soldier packs can be lighter, and implanted medical devices can last longer before the need for replacement surgery. And while our initial tests have shown a 61 percent improvement in energy density, this is just the beginning – because the EM1 electrolyte is stable at 5-volt operation, it opens the door to development of a new world of cathode materials that should bring even greater advances.”

Gresser added that the new materials are fully compatible with industry-standard anode materials.

The EM1 electrolyte’s high-voltage capability is of special interest for the automotive sector, where cell development has been restricted by the inability of existing electrolyte formulas to cycle at high voltages. Current EV systems based on low voltage cells require complex and expensive pack designs and battery management systems. EM1 enables high voltage systems which are expected to reduce required cell quantities 30-40% vs. competing materials like LFP and NMC. Fewer cells and simpler pack designs translate into substantially lower costs for auto makers.

The materials were developed using Wildcat’s proprietary high-throughput synthesis and screening platforms, which enable rapid discovery and development of advanced materials. For the CM1 cathode material alone, Wildcat’s R&D team synthesized and evaluated more than 3000 materials in just eight months; this research may have taken years using conventional methods.

Wildcat is actively seeking licensees and partners for further development and commercialization of EM1 and CM1 and successor materials. Sample quantities of up to 1 kilogram will be available as of April, 2011.

About Wildcat Discovery Technologies

Wildcat Discovery Technologies is engaged in the discovery and development of specialty materials for clean tech energy applications; including materials for batteries, gas separation, catalysis and advanced structural materials. Wildcat has developed proprietary high throughput synthesis and testing workflows for the rapid exploration of new inorganic materials. This technology enables Wildcat scientists to synthesize and evaluate thousands of materials in the time it takes most labs to evaluate only a handful.

http://www.wildcatdiscovery.com/news.html

We'll never know if EEStor is real...but keep an eye out for EM guns that don't use homopolar generators

[flathill]

Nice selective quoting

Here is the thread

Marines use 5v lipo

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=27877

We now have 1000cycle 5v secondary lithium cells

Get a clue moron

[999zip999]

The price came down from 70usd. to 19usd on A123'S. There some energy density in my wallet.

[deVries]

Nice selective quoting

Here is the thread

Marines use 5v lipo

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=27877

We now have 1000cycle 5v secondary lithium cells

Get a clue moron

This sort of name calling only serves to point out your intolerance for good discussion & learning. You started this kind of intolerant behavior stating falsely that I did not read one of your previous posts correctly...

"Obviously you lack critical reading skills and simply skim read to find the negative"

My point to you is this company is *not* proposing a doubling of battery capacity at this time. Furthermore, it is only a "battery additive" company that improves aspects of certain battery chemistry types. Unfortunately, it is UNPROVEN in any product, nor do we know if it is even being used in any commercial product.

The company has NO new PR Press Release Announcements since March 2011. Which is the press release you 1st posted, & I have copied from too.

Please stay off this thread if you intend to name call one more time, period, because you resort to making personal attacks that are completely irrational. Being respectful or not rude is the proper etiquette & form for posting on ES at least in technical areas. Go to the Biker Bar.

This proves this company can not double battery capacity by its own statement, at this time, which is the main topic of this thread...

Wildcat’s EM1, a novel 5V electrolyte formulation, and CM1, a new high voltage cathode material, have been shown to deliver a 25 percent improvement in gravimetric energy density, and a 61 percent improvement in volumetric energy density in the electrode, compared with existing state-of-the-art battery materials with comparable attributes. Thus far, batteries made with EM1 and CM1 have expected power and safety performance comparable to lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4), while also handling more than 100 charge/discharge cycles in full-cell testing.

“This is a breakthrough discovery by our development team, which can lead to batteries capable of storing much more energy than current materials allow,” said Wildcat CEO Mark Gresser. “When batteries hold more energy, it creates new options for design engineers - electric cars can go farther, tablets, laptops and smartphones can be smaller with no loss of runtime, soldier packs can be lighter, and implanted medical devices can last longer before the need for replacement surgery. And while our initial tests have shown a 61 percent improvement in energy density, this is just the beginning – because the EM1 electrolyte is stable at 5-volt operation, it opens the door to development of a new world of cathode materials that should bring even greater advances.”

[deVries]

I've reconsidered and changed my mind about battery life-cycles beyond 1,500 cycles:

Once you get to 1000 cycles (at 100% DOD) the calendar life becomes the limiting factor (since at normal use DOD the cycle life will be more than the calendar life in most EV applications)

Once energy density doubles from today's A123/EIG current best cells, then I am in complete agreement with your statement above. Though, I would always hope for more too.

I would then suggest these specs become much more important:

I would, especially, also want to know how much voltage sag there is under load between 800-1,500 cycles vs new. I agree going beyond 1,500 or even 1,000 cycles is not nearly as big a deal as capacity & performance under load is from 800-1,500 cycles vs new. Calendar life would be much more important after 1,000 to 1,500 cycles too. IMO.