US Electric Bicycle Sales Estimate

Electric Junk said:
The ebike will take off when bike shops start putting $800 ebikes on the sales floor

Which is going to be a while until/unless the Gigafactory (or some major technological breakthrough) drives battery prices down enough that you can go 20 miles or so unassisted on a $200 LiPo pack. Namely, an MP-26R Magic Pie kit from Golden Motor will run you about $300, including everything but the battery and the charger. If you can get a 48V/10Ah lithium battery with charger for about $200-250, then you still have about $250-300 to get a decent frame and still stay in the $800-or-less price range; otherwise the cheap ebikes are going to wind up carrying pig-heavy low-capacity SLAs (which make the bike annoying enough to pedal unassisted that most won't want to) because of cost.
 
I think a good marketing campaign is all that is needed to boost US ebike sales. I also think the less expensive conversion kits are a better solution for most rather than a production ebike as long as there are enough reputable shops willing to install them. That would be the business model I would get started with.
I've been doing some soft marketing on my local craigslist, but not getting a ton of interest. But whenever anyone test rides one of my bikes they ALWAYS get the EV Grin. - Just have to get more people to try an ebike for a day, and eventually the word will spread.
 
According to one theory, getting around in towns and cities faster and waaaay cheaper than the 20th-century gasoline/diseasal-powered (sp?) horseless carriage may be of interest to some. (Just a theory of course.) Also, not as smelly as the Stinko-Mobile.
 
If anyone seriously feels that the only thing that will sell is an $800 E-bike, I fear it will look like a 24V lithium Ezip.
http://www.electricbike.com/2014-ezip-trailz-lithium/

ezip-trailz-electric-bike.jpg


If I had an E-bike shop, I'd concentrate on a handful of models that cover what has worked. Of course, to survive, I would have to evolve, depending on what customers were actually buying. I would host week-end meets, to allow potential customers to test-ride the different bikes.

BBS02 36V / 48V
MAC 10T, 48V
ebikekit DD hub with silent sine-wave controller
LightningRods kit on an upscale off-roader.
Twin-motor fatbike with BPM's

Just recently noticed that WalMart (I just threw up in my mouth a little) is improving and adding more variety, here's a 29-inch full sus with an elevated chainstay, $200:

0001675132902_500X500.jpg


Mongoose Ledge 2.2, Kona Stinky clone? $180

0003867547308_AV1_500X500.jpg
 
Lithium Ion Batteries for Consumer Electric Vehicles Will Surpass $24 Billion in Annual Revenue by 2023: http://www.navigantresearch.com/newsroom/lithium-ion-batteries-for-consumer-electric-vehicles-will-surpass-24-billion-in-annual-revenue-by-2023

(It's all about the Bettery Cells.)
 
lester12483 said:
I just came across this article. Do you guys think its accurate on the number of sales in the US?
http://www.businessinsider.com/this-electric-bicycle-could-be-the-future-of-transportation-2014-7
Good question and the answer is "Who knows?" While the Electric Bikes World Report has been a going concern since 1995 and over the course of that 20 years, they may have developed some expertise, it all comes down to the data. I'd question what is included in their statistical assessment. Is it fully equiped eBikes, or does that include conversion kits installed by the likes of us? Someone would have to call them and ask.
 
I came across an article a short while ago that said the top three sales in North America (in 2013) were Currie, Pedego, and Prodeco tech, but...no figures.
 
It's all about demand, sadly the american market doesn't have the volume. Everything else is in order on the supply side, just need the numbers to hit a good price point.
 
And cost of options?
http://chartsbin.com/view/1115
 
New York Times "E-Bike Sales Are Surging in Europe":
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/19/business/e-bike-sales-are-surging-in-europe.html
 
LockH said:
New York Times "E-Bike Sales Are Surging in Europe":
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/19/business/e-bike-sales-are-surging-in-europe.html
Nice article.
So far, the appeal seems largely limited to countries with a strong bike culture. In China, consumers often use cheap e-bikes with lead-acid batteries, a bane of environmentalists, instead of scooters, and they have also made headlines for leading to more accidents in a country known for its dangerous roads. In Europe, e-bikes are more expensive and evolving out of the traditional bike market.

In other areas, it still represents a niche. The United States has yet to significantly embrace e-bikes, and in New York State, they are still regulated like motorcycles, presenting challenges to mass adoption.
Question, with the surge in other parts of the world, is the USA on the verge of the same :?: I would say we are a strong bike culture and more and more so.
 
"strong bike culture" Worse, NA a strong CAR "culture". (But "downsizing" travel budgets a strong "inducement" maybe.)
 
Israel and Czech republic are expanding. SE.A is starting with Chinese domestic e-trikes (hands down the best form of e transport)
 
t3sla said:
Israel and Czech republic are expanding. SE.A is starting with Chinese domestic e-trikes (hands down the best form of e transport)
Israel already has crazy high ebike adoption rates. I did an informal survey last year and watching bikes go by at the beach for an hour, found that about 25% were electric.
 
spinningmagnets said:
I came across an article a short while ago that said the top three sales in North America (in 2013) were Currie, Pedego, and Prodeco tech, but...no figures.

They are, but the most interesting thing is a Acell group bought up Currie, that's the biggest move the American ebike this decade.

For those that don't know bikes have three big names; Shimano MFG, Giant and Acell group.

From what I can see it's only amounted to a distribution channel for delimited Bosch bikes. Only time will tell if they invest and develope for the American market. First point of order should be frames.
 
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