Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

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MitchJi
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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by MitchJi » Jun 07, 2015 9:12 am

Hi,

This forum has a lot of excellent information about investing in general and investing in Tesla:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/forumdis ... iscussions
Best Wishes!

Mitch


The best quality batteries and lowest priced batteries for DIY EV's are tier 1 OEM Quality Cells from salvaged (wrecked) EV packs. Two examples are Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf packs.

Nissan Leaf Module specs are here
Chevy Volt Pack Info - Salvage 16kwh Packs Under $2k here
The cells are rated conservatively by GM at 7.8C, Yabert's tests of Volt packs on the DiyEv car forum suggest a higher C rate, 15+ C!.

$1,400 plus $360 freight. Still over $1k less than new lead!

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by Joseph C. » Jun 09, 2015 6:42 pm

Tesla are proposing to use liquid-cooled cables to reduce the thickness and prevent heat problems.

That would be very useful for buses, lorries and eventually planes that will each need gigawatt-hours of charge.

Edit: $4,000 for the total price of the upgraded (5KW instead of 2KW with peak of 7KW) Powerwall plus installation costs. :D
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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by MitchJi » Jun 10, 2015 9:49 am

Joseph C. wrote:Tesla are proposing to use liquid-cooled cables to reduce the thickness and prevent heat problems.

Edit: $4,000 for the total price of the upgraded (5KW instead of 2KW with peak of 7KW) Powerwall plus installation costs. :D
EM said that the cables will allow for higher power charging in the future.

The only change to the powerwall is the power output. He explained that the total installed cost will be about $4k, for most solar systems, using their DC-AC Convertor.
Best Wishes!

Mitch


The best quality batteries and lowest priced batteries for DIY EV's are tier 1 OEM Quality Cells from salvaged (wrecked) EV packs. Two examples are Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf packs.

Nissan Leaf Module specs are here
Chevy Volt Pack Info - Salvage 16kwh Packs Under $2k here
The cells are rated conservatively by GM at 7.8C, Yabert's tests of Volt packs on the DiyEv car forum suggest a higher C rate, 15+ C!.

$1,400 plus $360 freight. Still over $1k less than new lead!

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by Joseph C. » Jun 10, 2015 6:12 pm

MitchJi wrote: He explained that the total installed cost will be about $4k...

Eh - that's what I said.
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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by Hillhater » Jun 10, 2015 6:47 pm

Yes but, that is the manufacturer/salesman speak figure...
Other independent sources (Grattan institute) have put it at $7000 installed.!
Time and actual experience will tell which is closest.

Interesting they found a power output improvement so soon after launch ?
What happened to the life cycle concerns at higher outputs ?
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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by flathill » Jun 10, 2015 7:15 pm

Joseph C. wrote:Tesla are proposing to use liquid-cooled cables to reduce the thickness and prevent heat problems.

That would be very useful for buses, lorries and eventually planes that will each need gigawatt-hours of charge.

Edit: $4,000 for the total price of the upgraded (5KW instead of 2KW with peak of 7KW) Powerwall plus installation costs. :D
They are already in use at the new mountain view supercharger. this should allow them to bump the power to beyond 135kw. they will still need to taper of course (with current packs)

they are about to rollout fastchargers which are dual 60kw dc chargers. like a supercharger mini that can be installed in more places (still needs 3 phase power though). good for fleet use and high end hotels and restaurants and stores

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by Hillhater » Jun 10, 2015 8:13 pm

Why are you talking about the PowerWall in the same post as a 135 kW supercharger station ?
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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by flathill » Jun 11, 2015 2:47 am

The liquid cooled cables are already in use

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by voicecoils » Jun 11, 2015 4:22 am

flathill wrote:
Joseph C. wrote:Tesla are proposing to use liquid-cooled cables to reduce the thickness and prevent heat problems.
They are already in use at the new mountain view supercharger. this should allow them to bump the power to beyond 135kw. they will still need to taper of course (with current packs)
A liquid cooled cable seems an odd thing to do...

Undersize the cable to reduce weight and make it easy to handle will reduce the efficiency of power transmission and create unwanted heat. Then expend more energy to cool the cable?

What happened to the idea of using sweet robot arms to carry a properly sized conductor?

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by Joseph C. » Jun 11, 2015 4:46 pm

voicecoils wrote: A liquid cooled cable seems an odd thing to do...

Undersize the cable to reduce weight and make it easy to handle will reduce the efficiency of power transmission and create unwanted heat. Then expend more energy to cool the cable?

What happened to the idea of using sweet robot arms to carry a properly sized conductor?
Perhaps at current application sizes it is inefficient and unneeded but if they scale it up to 200 or more kilowatts it starts to become important. I'd imagine there is all sorts of trade-offs involved vis-a-vis robotics versus liquid-cooling cables.

Robotic arms could have great costs for 2,500 plus superchargers, their duty cycle would be far more extreme than a home owner who plugs in once a day (a supercharger would be plugged in ten times or more per day). The weight of a very large cable might require powerful motors depending upon the design. All that adds complexity and reliability issues.

I think the more important thing is that large vehicles and planes would benefit enormously from liquid-cooled cables. It makes the handling of megawatt plus cables much less cumbersome. And large commercial planes will need gigawatt-sized cables to charge their batteries. Now that Siemens have got electric propulsion working on planes producing 5KW per KG continuously, the next hurdle after battery energy density will be how to charge them. Robotics will probably be required for planes but having the cables much smaller still makes everything much easier.
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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by voicecoils » Jun 11, 2015 8:03 pm

Joseph C. wrote:
voicecoils wrote: A liquid cooled cable seems an odd thing to do...
Perhaps at current application sizes it is inefficient and unneeded but if they scale it up to 200 or more kilowatts it starts to become important. I'd imagine there is all sorts of trade-offs involved vis-a-vis robotics versus liquid-cooling cables.
Ok, I can begin to see some validity at the extreme end of the power scale. If there is literally no other way of handling the cable weight then a tradeoff of efficiency vs usability starts to make sense.

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by MitchJi » Jun 16, 2015 5:18 pm

Joseph C. wrote:Tesla are proposing to use liquid-cooled cables to reduce the thickness and prevent heat problems.

That would be very useful for buses, lorries and eventually planes that will each need gigawatt-hours of charge.

Edit
When they announced it they said it would support higher charge rates in the future.
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/51 ... e-minutes/
“It’s not going to happen in a year from now. It’s going to be hard. But I think we can get down to five to 10 minutes,” Straubel said in an interview with MIT Technology Review. He noted that the current superchargers, which deliver 120 kilowatts of electricity, “seemed pretty crazy even 10 years ago.” Conventional public charging stations deliver well under 10 kilowatts.

Straubel says Tesla has been able to rapidly improve charging because it designs and builds all of the key components itself, including the chargers, the electronics for monitoring the battery pack, and a cooling system for the battery. They’re all optimized to work together in a way that’s not easy for systems built to accommodate many different models of electric vehicles...

Achieving five-minute charges will require not only further improving the charging system, but also improving the interface with the electrical grid. As it is, only some places on the grid can handle 120-kilowatt charging. Drawing large amounts of power from the grid also incurs demand charges from the utility, increasing the cost of the system.

Storing solar power in batteries in the charging station could also be helpful to operators of the power grid (see “Wind Turbines, Battery Included, Can Keep Power Supplies Stable”). They could provide utilities a way to moderate fluctuations on the grid, something that’s becoming more important as more intermittent sources of power, such as solar and wind, are added. Tesla plans to test such a system soon in California. It could charge utilities for this service, which, Straubel says, could help offset the cost of the stations.
Last edited by MitchJi on Aug 15, 2015 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Best Wishes!

Mitch


The best quality batteries and lowest priced batteries for DIY EV's are tier 1 OEM Quality Cells from salvaged (wrecked) EV packs. Two examples are Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf packs.

Nissan Leaf Module specs are here
Chevy Volt Pack Info - Salvage 16kwh Packs Under $2k here
The cells are rated conservatively by GM at 7.8C, Yabert's tests of Volt packs on the DiyEv car forum suggest a higher C rate, 15+ C!.

$1,400 plus $360 freight. Still over $1k less than new lead!

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by Hillhater » Aug 11, 2015 6:31 pm

.....Straubel says Tesla has been able to rapidly improve charging because it designs and builds all of the key components itself, including the chargers, the electronics for monitoring the battery pack, and a cooling system for the battery. They’re all optimized to work together in a way that’s not easy for systems built to accommodate many different models of electric vehicles...
He is ignoring the fact that they don't make the cells themselves yet either !
A 10 min charge on a 3Ahr cell implies a 6+C charge rate ?
I will be impressed if the cells can take that frequently and survive the warranty period.

The shine seems to have come off Tesla a little.
Heading back towards $200 again ?
This forum owes its existence to Justin of ebikes.ca

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by dmwahl » Aug 12, 2015 9:47 am

Hillhater wrote: He is ignoring the fact that they don't make the cells themselves yet either !
They may not yet make their own cells, but it's not like they're buying them off-the-shelf either. At the quantities they use, you can bet that they have a lot of say into how they're made.

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by MitchJi » Aug 15, 2015 4:07 pm

Hi,
JB Straubel wrote:It’s not going to happen in a year from now. It’s going to be hard. But I think we can get down to five to 10 minutes,”
Hillhater wrote: He is ignoring the fact that they don't make the cells themselves yet either !
He is clearly talking about a future goal.

And Panasonic builds the cells to Tesla's specifications.
Best Wishes!

Mitch


The best quality batteries and lowest priced batteries for DIY EV's are tier 1 OEM Quality Cells from salvaged (wrecked) EV packs. Two examples are Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf packs.

Nissan Leaf Module specs are here
Chevy Volt Pack Info - Salvage 16kwh Packs Under $2k here
The cells are rated conservatively by GM at 7.8C, Yabert's tests of Volt packs on the DiyEv car forum suggest a higher C rate, 15+ C!.

$1,400 plus $360 freight. Still over $1k less than new lead!

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by TheBeastie » Aug 16, 2015 2:34 am

Came across this newly published article on Tesla and its cash issues.
I notice sometimes when people respond to my posts they respond with an article dated from like 2 years ago? I just want to remind people that when they start reading any webpage on the internet first check the date which will always be listed on ANY web page that's worth reading that can be considered proper news...
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/tesla ... sis-2015-8

I don't mean to sound negative in any way about Tesla but remember Benjamin Graham famous quote...

The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, explained this concept by saying that in the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company. The message is clear: What matters in the long run is a company's actual underlying business performance and not the investing public's fickle opinion about its prospects in the short run.
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Beware of dodgy 18650 cells! youtu.be/eOshOXcSkDA
Consider PAS as your only throttle http://goo.gl/m17J9j
CO2 is core to Photosynthesis https://youtu.be/t5mvDONB6FI
Check out the Bill Gates nuclear reactor https://goo.gl/Rtky9q
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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by MitchJi » Aug 16, 2015 2:04 pm

Hi,

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-tesla- ... ale-2015-8

I don't mean to sound negative in any way about Tesla but remember Benjamin Graham famous quote...
If you think that quote is relevant to Tesla I suggest that you either need to think about this more thoroughly or start paying less attention to incompetent analysts.
Charger prototype finding its way to Model S

Best Wishes!

Mitch


The best quality batteries and lowest priced batteries for DIY EV's are tier 1 OEM Quality Cells from salvaged (wrecked) EV packs. Two examples are Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf packs.

Nissan Leaf Module specs are here
Chevy Volt Pack Info - Salvage 16kwh Packs Under $2k here
The cells are rated conservatively by GM at 7.8C, Yabert's tests of Volt packs on the DiyEv car forum suggest a higher C rate, 15+ C!.

$1,400 plus $360 freight. Still over $1k less than new lead!

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by e-beach » Aug 17, 2015 9:36 am

Morgan Stanley Massively Hikes Price Target on Tesla, Says Stock Could Almost Double

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ost-double
Forget about a mere 15 percent increase in stock value -- how about a 90 percent one? That's how bullish Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is on Tesla.

In a note this morning, Jonas has increased the price target for Tesla to $465 from $280 (the stock is currently at about $243). The key reason behind this is what he calls "Tesla Mobility, an app-based, on-demand mobility service." The race for autonomous driving is nothing new, with tech giants such as Apple and Google also making a push in this realm, but the report says Tesla is well positioned to get large market share. Jonas is telling clients that "Tesla is uniquely positioned, in our view, to solve the biggest flaw in the auto industry, <4% utilization, via an app-based, on-demand mobility service.".......snip
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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by dnmun » Aug 17, 2015 10:59 am

6.5% move on the news. got up to $256.59.

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by Hillhater » Aug 24, 2015 7:34 pm

nerves of steel required at the moment. :shock:
Did any real believers buy back in as they went under $200 ??
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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by MitchJi » Aug 28, 2015 5:13 pm

Hillhater wrote:nerves of steel required at the moment. :shock:
Did any real believers buy back in as they went under $200 ??
Yes. Someone posted screenshot of his purchase at $195. I went all in on call options with a Jan 2016 expiration when it hit $235. Would have been better if I had waited a day, but they are up 12.87% already and my plan is to capture the upside from the Model X launch, which still hasn't happened. So I'm feeling pretty good right now.
Best Wishes!

Mitch


The best quality batteries and lowest priced batteries for DIY EV's are tier 1 OEM Quality Cells from salvaged (wrecked) EV packs. Two examples are Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf packs.

Nissan Leaf Module specs are here
Chevy Volt Pack Info - Salvage 16kwh Packs Under $2k here
The cells are rated conservatively by GM at 7.8C, Yabert's tests of Volt packs on the DiyEv car forum suggest a higher C rate, 15+ C!.

$1,400 plus $360 freight. Still over $1k less than new lead!

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by MitchJi » Dec 29, 2015 3:40 am

Hi,

Despite my best intentions I've neglected this thread.

I've been spending quite a bit of time here (highly recommended):
TMC (teslamotorsclub.com) TSLA Investor Discussions

The reason I'm posting now is that IMO now is an excellent time to make long term (1-3 years) investment. The simplest and least risky way to do that is to buy shares.

If you feel comfortable with more risk (be careful!), I think that now is also an excellent (relatively safe) time to buy Jan 2018 Call Options (called LEAPS). A pretty safe strike price would be from about $200 to about $230 (lower is considered less risky).
Best Wishes!

Mitch


The best quality batteries and lowest priced batteries for DIY EV's are tier 1 OEM Quality Cells from salvaged (wrecked) EV packs. Two examples are Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf packs.

Nissan Leaf Module specs are here
Chevy Volt Pack Info - Salvage 16kwh Packs Under $2k here
The cells are rated conservatively by GM at 7.8C, Yabert's tests of Volt packs on the DiyEv car forum suggest a higher C rate, 15+ C!.

$1,400 plus $360 freight. Still over $1k less than new lead!

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by Hillhater » Jan 29, 2017 10:16 pm

Quite a Rodeo ride going on here currently .....Tesla now over $250, that 40% increase since Dec 1st :shock:
Can anyone identify the factors that kicked this rally off ?.....Trump ? :roll:
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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by TheBeastie » Feb 01, 2017 7:27 am

Hillhater wrote:Quite a Rodeo ride going on here currently .....Tesla now over $250, that 40% increase since Dec 1st :shock:
Can anyone identify the factors that kicked this rally off ?.....Trump ? :roll:
Yes its Trump, don't under estimate how important cheap electricity is to an electric car company.

Its the same reason VW announced its new all-electric car manufacturing plant be built in the USA a few weeks after Trump won the election, Germany has retail electricity prices almost double USAs and its increasing every year.. its going to be a lot harder making and selling the electric cars in Germany now may as well just concentrate on the USA market where electricity is sure to stay cheaper for a longer period of time.
https://techcrunch.com/2016/11/22/volks ... a-in-2021/
Speed Kills Range, 10mph = 46 miles range, 20mph = 20 miles, 30mph = 8 miles range http://goo.gl/1JNL53
Over Charging Kills ur battery bit.ly/1hzWKl4
Beware of dodgy 18650 cells! youtu.be/eOshOXcSkDA
Consider PAS as your only throttle http://goo.gl/m17J9j
CO2 is core to Photosynthesis https://youtu.be/t5mvDONB6FI
Check out the Bill Gates nuclear reactor https://goo.gl/Rtky9q
10 Square Miles of solar panels = 0.12GW average power! https://goo.gl/Ub1S39

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Re: Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

Post by Hillhater » Feb 01, 2017 4:37 pm

I dont doubt the Trump factor is part of the reason, but its unlikely to be the main factor.
Trump is also a supporter of Fossil fuels, which should weigh against Tesla and boost other energy stocks to a similar extent...but it has not.
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