Demonetization effect on E-Vehicles business in India

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jonescg
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Re: Demonetization effect on E-Vehicles business in India

Post by jonescg » Nov 29, 2016 8:03 am

At first I thought you might have been a publicist for business-standard.com but you do raise some interesting points ;)

Demonetisation - the ongoing success of a venture with simultaneous lack of profitability. The ICE business model is failing, and dealerships are going broke. Most of their bread and butter comes from fixing engines that fail if not maintained, but EVs don't fail that often. EV sales are steadily increasing, but the margins are smaller and the initial costs are higher. So there's a shift towards getting more out of the product through things like sharing and renting.

I don't know about demonetisation, but less money per person will be spent for sure.

Hillhater
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Re: Demonetization effect on E-Vehicles business in India

Post by Hillhater » Nov 29, 2016 5:30 pm

Jonescg, how do you conclude the ICE business model is failing ?
It may be changing...manufacturing centers relocating, etc,.... but new , bigger, more expensive , dealership centers keep opening every year and total volume and $$$s sales keep increasing year on year.
EV sales may be increasing , but from a very small base and at nowhere near the most conservative of predicted rates.
The reality is, that pure EV sales (as opposed to Hybrid or PHEV) will not start to really increase until an affordable, high capacity, battery system is developed...
...and i dont see much progress on that front lately !
.Most EVs are still relying on 20yr old battery tech !
Sorry, but i am just a frustrated EV enthusiast !
This forum owes its existence to Justin of ebikes.ca

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jonescg
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Re: Demonetization effect on E-Vehicles business in India

Post by jonescg » Nov 30, 2016 12:26 am

Sorry, I probably should have said 'failing to adapt', which will eventually lead to failure if they don't get on board with new ways of embracing EVs.
Knowing that nearly half of a dealer's income is from service schedules, EVs present a massive shortfall in income. Also, while EVs are more expensive than an equivalent sized ICE, the margins are thinner so sales will offer less return per unit too.

New car sales are down prettymuch Australia-wide, reflecting the economic conditions I guess (low wage growth, higher unemployment), plus I think we've hit 'peak car' or at least, peak new car. Perhaps the new dealerships are just consolidations of smaller ones who folded?

As for batteries, the biggest gains have been made not in chemistry, but in manufacturing. Machines are assembling cells better than ever before, and this is leading to incremental improvements in energy density and cost per Wh. In the early 2000s LiFePO4 was as good as it got for the most part - packing a measly 95 Wh/kg. By 2010 we're up around 120 Wh/kg, and today over 200 Wh/kg. A doubling every 15 years. Not bad given the cost per Wh is steadily coming down too.

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