a storm is brewing on the mountain

General Discussion about electric bicycles.
Apex
10 W
10 W
Posts: 69
Joined: Aug 30, 2016 8:03 am
Location: Indianapolis

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by Apex » Jan 01, 2018 11:05 am

All my builds (gas and electric)have had a foundation of a old Craigslist bike, and a couple department store bikes.
The simple fact is that none of them are ready for a 3000 watt mid-drive powertrain. Why does this suprise anybody? The same can be said of most any bicycle under $1k.
I often sense a bit of elitism when it comes to this subject. Yes, the sonndor bikes have not really pushed the industry forward as far as technology goes, but they have exposed casual bikers to a technology that was otherwise marketed to them poorly.

Imo, the argument is moot.
None of this matters, bikes don't matter, motors don't matter. A manufacturer can try to cut corners all they want, or, use decent value components for a little more cost, but as far as costs go, it doesn't matter.
Until we see an increase in battery performance and a reduction in battery price, which, in my case is usually 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the vehicle cost, then we are simply dacing around the margins.
Until battery pack prices come down, every thing else will take a back seat to there overshadowing cost. IMO, that is the true force behind many ebikes being woefully inadequate.

User avatar
wturber
1 kW
1 kW
Posts: 385
Joined: Aug 23, 2017 8:52 pm
Location: Fountain Hills,AZ
Contact:

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by wturber » Jan 01, 2018 12:08 pm

Apex wrote:
Jan 01, 2018 11:05 am

Until battery pack prices come down, every thing else will take a back seat to there overshadowing cost. IMO, that is the true force behind many ebikes being woefully inadequate.
OTOH, the batteries are much better today than in the past. But yes, they are still a major impediment. Even my good fortune in finding good capacity at about half the going price still leaves me facing about three years before I break even on ebike cost vs. gas cost saved with ebike commutes 2-3 times a week. It would be much faster (but still pretty long at regular battery prices) with full vehicle replacement, but other factors make full vehicle replacement impractical.
"Commuter - DC Booster"
Iron Horse 3.0 hardtail - 48V / 1000W / 470rpm generic Chinese DD Hub motor (ebay)
7 x 36v 4.3ah 10s 2P battery packs - Wangdd22 1500W 30A DC Boost Converter delivers 54v and about 1175 watts peak
53T/42T Sakae Road cranks - 30mph+ on flats
https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewt ... =2&t=90369

User avatar
Chalo
100 GW
100 GW
Posts: 6329
Joined: Apr 29, 2009 11:29 pm
Location: Austin, Texas

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by Chalo » Jan 01, 2018 1:13 pm

Apex wrote:
Jan 01, 2018 11:05 am
Until we see an increase in battery performance and a reduction in battery price, which, in my case is usually 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the vehicle cost, then we are simply dacing around the margins.
Until battery pack prices come down, every thing else will take a back seat to there overshadowing cost. IMO, that is the true force behind many ebikes being woefully inadequate.
I've said almost the same thing here before. But I don't think it's true anymore. For instance, my current e-bike uses a 48V, 13.5Ah battery that cost me $350 including case, mounting rail, and charger (and meaningful vendor support). That's roughly $0.50 per watt-hour including all those things, or about a third of the cost of the bike even though I built my frame from scratch. I could have paid even less for more capacity in a turn-key battery, or built my own pack for less yet.

I think battery cost has turned the corner, which is one of the reasons that all sorts of people in my neighborhood are getting e-bikes or asking me about them, who wouldn't have been into them before.

Battery cost will always be a big chunk of the price of an e-bike, because the properties of the battery more than anything dictate the performance potential of the bike. We'll continue to base our expectations on what's available from good batteries at any given time, not just the cheapest batteries we can get.
This is to express my gratitude to Justin of Grin Technologies for his extraordinary measures to save this forum for the benefit of all.

User avatar
tomjasz
1.21 GW
1.21 GW
Posts: 3700
Joined: Mar 29, 2014 1:45 pm
Location: Out riding, MN USA
Contact:

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by tomjasz » Jan 01, 2018 5:20 pm

Chalo wrote:
Jan 01, 2018 1:13 pm


Battery cost will always be a big chunk of the price of an e-bike, because the properties of the battery more than anything dictate the performance potential of the bike. We'll continue to base our expectations on what's available from good batteries at any given time, not just the cheapest batteries we can get.
Eggs Ackley!
Thanks Justin_le we're here thanks to you. All the best to the mods for their tireless work keeping it on an even keel.

markz
10 GW
10 GW
Posts: 4970
Joined: Jan 09, 2014 11:38 pm
Location: Alberta Canada

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by markz » Jan 01, 2018 5:41 pm

Chalo wrote:
Dec 31, 2017 2:23 am
but hard packed snow and icy surfaces make them slide around. They work best on lightly packed snow trails, like those established by snowmobiles.
Condition A - Well after a snow fall and vehicles have packed the snow, and you still get that condition where the vehilces drive the snow aint entirely flattened by tires, but you get to choose which groove you want to ride in. The compact snow then crumbles and a reg 2.1 mtb tire slides around.

I think that condition is the only condition in which a fat bike would work well in. A studded FRONT fat tire that is.

I find the rear wheel with the dd motor in a 1.9-2.3 tire, is fine in all conditions in the winter. Plowing through snow banks and powdered trailed, 6"+.

As simple as a fork switch.

LewTwo
100 kW
100 kW
Posts: 1036
Joined: Apr 08, 2014 4:46 pm
Location: Houston, Texas
Contact:

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by LewTwo » Jan 01, 2018 11:45 pm

I think that there are three distinct market segments:
1) Recreational use
2) Ocasional Transportation
3) Primary Transportation

As long as users and dealers regard e-bikes as being in group 1 or 2 they will never be a large market. If and when they come to be regarded as "primary transportation" then the market will increase greatly as well as serviceability and other factors. It is must like the difference between a necessary utility such as electricity and a recreation service like cable TV.
The more I learn the more obvious the immensity of my ignorance becomes.
Weight Wennie E-Bike https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewt ... 3#p1173723
Shaft Drive Grocery Getter https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewt ... =6&t=90718
...and thanks to Justin!

Apex
10 W
10 W
Posts: 69
Joined: Aug 30, 2016 8:03 am
Location: Indianapolis

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by Apex » Jan 02, 2018 9:07 am

Chalo wrote:
Jan 01, 2018 1:13 pm
Apex wrote:
Jan 01, 2018 11:05 am
Until we see an increase in battery performance and a reduction in battery price, which, in my case is usually 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the vehicle cost, then we are simply dacing around the margins.
Until battery pack prices come down, every thing else will take a back seat to there overshadowing cost. IMO, that is the true force behind many ebikes being woefully inadequate.
I've said almost the same thing here before. But I don't think it's true anymore. For instance, my current e-bike uses a 48V, 13.5Ah battery that cost me $350 including case, mounting rail, and charger (and meaningful vendor support). That's roughly $0.50 per watt-hour....
That's a damn good price.
Care to share source?
I bought a 52v 11.5 pack made with 18650s for about twice that price about 18 months ago.

DRMousseau
100 W
100 W
Posts: 153
Joined: May 01, 2016 5:10 am
Location: Panama City, FL (Jan-June) Traverse City, MI (June-Dec)

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by DRMousseau » Jan 02, 2018 9:57 am

LewTwo wrote:
Jan 01, 2018 11:45 pm
I think that there are three distinct market segments:
1) Recreational use
2) Ocasional Transportation
3) Primary Transportation

As long as users and dealers regard e-bikes as being in group 1 or 2 they will never be a large market. If and when they come to be regarded as "primary transportation" then the market will increase greatly as well as serviceability and other factors. It is must like the difference between a necessary utility such as electricity and a recreation service like cable TV.
In all cases noted, 1, 2, AND 3,... the greater market is determined by "users" and met by "dealers" and manufactures utilizing available technology. "Today's user" and prevalent market, primarily desires low initial cost, little to no additional costs over "reasonable"(?) expected lifetime of use, with little to no maintenance or serviceability needs, and is more concerned with expected "replacement" costs rather than reparability. Such market attitude is greatly apparent in todays automobile, regardless of gas, electric, or hybrid power. No one wants to be bothered with checking oil, tire pressure or changing filters and sparkplugs on a regular or daily basis as was common in early days of automobiles. Todays technology continues more and more to allow manufactures to meet those market desires.

As noted by Chalo and others, "Batteries will always be a big chunk of the price of an e-bike", and like old Civic hybrids, no one wants to suffer the significant expense of battery replacement in an old, neglected and well used vehicle OR e-bike that has pretty much met it's "expected" lifetime of usability. This again reinforces "...our expectations on what's available from good batteries at any given time, not just the cheapest batteries we can get." And a major factor in considering $1000 e-bikes and $10,000 EVs which will likely become more commonly available,... jus like cheaply built BSOs at your local big box.

User avatar
MadRhino
10 GW
10 GW
Posts: 4889
Joined: Sep 03, 2010 5:28 pm
Location: Montreal QC Canada

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by MadRhino » Jan 02, 2018 1:33 pm

For transportation to become a major factor in the ebike market expansion, some radical changes must happen in the western economy, social organization, and legislation.

People in the western world, are covering way too large distances to consider the ebike a useful mean of transportation. They are too rich to force themselves into the inconveniences to commute on a bike. Only those who enjoy riding already, can be convinced to ride an ebike. That is why the sport and leisure market is now the best perspective growth. While it is not very difficult to convince more bicycle users every year, the motorcycle crowd is much harder to touch. Some legislation changes are badly needed, for the ebikes to become an alternative to gassers.

Battery technology is improving. There will be cheaper, better batteries to come. Yet, they will not make ebikes so much more popular in the western world.
Make it fool-proof, and I will make a better fool.
Current bikes
Street: https://s20.postimg.org/ewrvugywt/Session_04_2015.jpg
Dirt: https://s20.postimg.org/lbqwr55ml/IMG_0157.jpg

User avatar
Chalo
100 GW
100 GW
Posts: 6329
Joined: Apr 29, 2009 11:29 pm
Location: Austin, Texas

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by Chalo » Jan 02, 2018 2:15 pm

Apex wrote:
Jan 02, 2018 9:07 am
Chalo wrote:
Jan 01, 2018 1:13 pm
...my current e-bike uses a 48V, 13.5Ah battery that cost me $350 including case, mounting rail, and charger (and meaningful vendor support). That's roughly $0.50 per watt-hour....
That's a damn good price.
Care to share source?
I bought a 52v 11.5 pack made with 18650s for about twice that price about 18 months ago.
It was the Shark pack I got with my BBS02 during Luna Cycles's preorder sale last year. Panasonic GA cells. Their current full price is $460. BMS Battery has a lower price on a comparable pack. (No meaningful after sale support, though.)
This is to express my gratitude to Justin of Grin Technologies for his extraordinary measures to save this forum for the benefit of all.

LewTwo
100 kW
100 kW
Posts: 1036
Joined: Apr 08, 2014 4:46 pm
Location: Houston, Texas
Contact:

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by LewTwo » Jan 02, 2018 6:42 pm

MadRhino wrote:
Jan 02, 2018 1:33 pm
For transportation to become a major factor in the ebike market expansion, some radical changes must happen in the western economy, social organization, and legislation.
My personal 'radical change' came when the company I worked for over 30 years had their operations moved off-shore. I no longer need to rush to work every morning (regardless of the weather) and just the cost of insurance on a cage for one year pays for a battery pack. I will admit that my 'range' has greatly decreased but I can find most things I need within that range.
The more I learn the more obvious the immensity of my ignorance becomes.
Weight Wennie E-Bike https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewt ... 3#p1173723
Shaft Drive Grocery Getter https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewt ... =6&t=90718
...and thanks to Justin!

User avatar
tomjasz
1.21 GW
1.21 GW
Posts: 3700
Joined: Mar 29, 2014 1:45 pm
Location: Out riding, MN USA
Contact:

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by tomjasz » Jan 02, 2018 7:06 pm

52V 12.8Ah LG MH1 3.7V 3200mAh 10A 3C Cells Unit Pack Power Aliexpress. $364 delivered. USA support.
Thanks Justin_le we're here thanks to you. All the best to the mods for their tireless work keeping it on an even keel.

User avatar
tomjasz
1.21 GW
1.21 GW
Posts: 3700
Joined: Mar 29, 2014 1:45 pm
Location: Out riding, MN USA
Contact:

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by tomjasz » Jan 02, 2018 7:08 pm

Chalo wrote:
Jan 02, 2018 2:15 pm
(No meaningful after sale support, though.)
Your pack was out of warranty after 30-90 days. UPP 1 year.
Thanks Justin_le we're here thanks to you. All the best to the mods for their tireless work keeping it on an even keel.

User avatar
Chalo
100 GW
100 GW
Posts: 6329
Joined: Apr 29, 2009 11:29 pm
Location: Austin, Texas

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by Chalo » Jan 02, 2018 7:29 pm

tomjasz wrote:
Jan 02, 2018 7:08 pm
Chalo wrote:
Jan 02, 2018 2:15 pm
(No meaningful after sale support, though.)
Your pack was out of warranty after 30-90 days. UPP 1 year.
I got the help I needed when I needed it, so it worked out.

I recently transplanted the charger cord plug and battery charge port myself, and retrofitted another charger to match. It's starting to feel like a project.
This is to express my gratitude to Justin of Grin Technologies for his extraordinary measures to save this forum for the benefit of all.

Raisedeyebrows
10 W
10 W
Posts: 77
Joined: May 13, 2017 1:39 pm

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by Raisedeyebrows » Jan 03, 2018 2:23 am

MadRhino wrote:
Jan 02, 2018 1:33 pm
For transportation to become a major factor in the ebike market expansion, some radical changes must happen in the western economy, social organization, and legislation.

People in the western world, are covering way too large distances to consider the ebike a useful mean of transportation. They are too rich to force themselves into the inconveniences to commute on a bike. Only those who enjoy riding already, can be convinced to ride an ebike. That is why the sport and leisure market is now the best perspective growth. While it is not very difficult to convince more bicycle users every year, the motorcycle crowd is much harder to touch. Some legislation changes are badly needed, for the ebikes to become an alternative to gassers.

Battery technology is improving. There will be cheaper, better batteries to come. Yet, they will not make ebikes so much more popular in the western world.
Indeed it seems the way a lot of people structure their lives around commuting fairly long distances makes ebikes extremely difficult if not impossible for them to utilize. I feel fortunate that my kids school is a half mile up the hill, I work from home and my kids athletic practice is 3.7 miles away, school and practice both easy distances for us to make it there on the cargo bike. Commutes to practice actually take half the time via side streets and bike path due to avoiding a dozen stop lights on the way. Great grocery stores (3) are a half mile downhill, again an easy trip by bike.

I'm very thankful to be able to use a bike instead of endless car trips constantly, some of the other parents at athletic practice drive 30-45 minutes each way to get their kids there.


We all likely know people who seem to take for granted that they can spend hours and hours daily behind the wheel of ICE vehicles, what a way to live........no thanks!

craneplaneguy
10 kW
10 kW
Posts: 615
Joined: Nov 27, 2015 9:15 am
Location: S.E. Idaho USA

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by craneplaneguy » Jan 03, 2018 8:54 am

What you just said is the biggest drawback to living in a very rural area like I do. It's kind of weird that "living in the country" denotes warm fuzzy feelings about being somehow "greener" then someone living in a suburban or city area, but the opposite is true! Though I'm sure I have a much better view out my windows, I'm looking at a minimum of a 26 to 40 mile drive when I go into town and back. Since discovering e bikes a couple years ago, it has occurred to me that if I lived in town I could do 95% of my running around via bike. So I compromise, once I drive (a PriusPlugIn) into town, a lot of my running around is done by bike. Still, living in a high rise apartment building in town would be greener then living out in the boonies, counter intuitive a bit but we folks living in the boonies are BIG users of lots of gasoline. The sad thing I see is some guy driving an old pickup, getting 16 MPG, into town to his min wage job, that has to really suck. The people that need super cheap transportation are the very same ones that can't afford it. When I see a new family, with little kids, move up the mountain I'm on, it means MANY more trips (usually in an SUV) running the rug rats back and forth to school etc., I don't think they quite realize how much driving is entailed, they will!

User avatar
MadRhino
10 GW
10 GW
Posts: 4889
Joined: Sep 03, 2010 5:28 pm
Location: Montreal QC Canada

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by MadRhino » Jan 03, 2018 8:58 am

Raisedeyebrows wrote:
Jan 03, 2018 2:23 am

We all likely know people who seem to take for granted that they can spend hours and hours daily behind the wheel of ICE vehicles, what a way to live........no thanks!
Ebikes are popular in Asia because of population density, low average income, and legislation tolerance.

In the western world, few are living in a dense population area where their transportation needs can be met within a reasonable distance. Even those who are, often have a countryside place where they travel often.

We are used to have cars and trucks, more than one by family, and travel with them even when they are not necessary. We are used to spend a lot of money on things that are not necessary, for pleasure, lazyness or comfort.

I ride ebikes because I like to ride first, and because it is possible within my commuting needs. When I leave the city, ebikes are not suitable anymore. My country place is 150 miles from the city, 30 miles from the nearest village. Most of ski centers are hundreds of miles away...

It is the same for most of the western world population. Very few can commute with an ebike, but many would buy one for fun if power and speed were legal.

That is why the market growth potential for ebikes is in leisure and sport.
Make it fool-proof, and I will make a better fool.
Current bikes
Street: https://s20.postimg.org/ewrvugywt/Session_04_2015.jpg
Dirt: https://s20.postimg.org/lbqwr55ml/IMG_0157.jpg

2old
10 kW
10 kW
Posts: 744
Joined: Jul 19, 2014 3:20 pm
Location: Socal

Re: a storm is brewing on the mountain

Post by 2old » Jan 03, 2018 12:05 pm

No question that ICE predominates in Orange County, CA, both because distances preclude bicycle travel and/or the area has been established to be car-centric. My 22 mile commute requires 25-30 minutes by car, but would be 90 minutes by e-bike because the number of traffic lights and convoluted route would increase travel time. Some individuals ride their bikes from home to a train or bus, but the numbers are small. Very effective for errands though.

Post Reply