Significant cut in gasoline use is decades away

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Significant cut in gasoline use is decades away: automakers

by Mira Oberman
Sun Feb 11, 6:51 PM ET

CHICAGO (AFP) - It will be decades before the world will see a significant cut in global automotive gasoline consumption, automakers and analysts said.

While there have been major improvements in fuel economy and reduced emissions through the development of technologies such as hybrids and clean diesel, consumers are not adopting them quickly enough to make a serious dent.

Gasoline electric hybrids -- which can improve fuel economy by anywhere from 20 percent to 60 percent -- currently make up less than one percent of global sales.

Hybrid demand is primarily in the US market and is not expected to expand significantly as consumers shy away from the high price tag coupled with fuel economy improvements that only apply to stop and go city driving, said Eric Fedewa, an analyst at CSM Worldwide.

Biofuels such as ethanol -- which were touted by President George W. Bush in his state of the union speech last month -- actually reduce fuel efficiency and there are questions as to when they will become widely available.

Zero-emission hydrogen and electric-powered vehicle are still five to ten years away from becoming marketable and a hydrogen fuel delivery system still has to be developed.

Aerodynamic and engine efficiency improvements to traditional vehicles can barely keep pace with an expected two-percent annual increase in driving as a result of economic expansion.

But the biggest delay will come from the length of time it will take consumers to adopt new technologies and for automakers to shift the production systems away from traditional vehicles, said Larry Burns, GM's vice president for research and development.

"There are 850 million internal combustion vehicles in the world today. No matter what you come up with you're going to have to let that global car park play out and that's going to consume petroleum for some time going forward," Burns told AFP.

About 66 to 70 million new vehicles are sold every year and it will take 12 to 15 years to replace the global fleet, Burns said.

"It's going to take time to totally fix it and we don't have a 70 million unit a year solution sitting here that we can implement immediately nor will we take it in a step that big because that's not how technology is developed."

One major source of improvement in petroleum consumption has come from a preference shift among consumers towards smaller more fuel-efficient vehicles amid rising and unpredictable gasoline prices.

"That pressure on economy is going to continue going forward," Mike Manley, vice president for sales and market at the Chrysler Group told AFP.

"Many consumers now are looking at the total cost of ownership which obviously includes alternative fuels."

Manley said Chrysler expects demand for gasoline-electric hybrids and clean diesel vehicles -- which also improve fuel economy by 30 to 35 percent -- to grow to five to fifteen percent of the US market over the next five years.

But he warned that a dramatic shift away from trucks and large sports utility vehicles is unlikely, especially given that sales in those segments have already started to bounce back.

"A large percentage of the consumer market does care about (the environment) but for a lot of segments, their purchase decisions are not as discretionary as we think," he said.

"You get down to a level where people need a truck for the work they do and they need the utility," he said, adding that consumer preferences for riding high in an SUV also play a large part in purchasing decisions.

Ford has also shifted its production plans with the expectation that consumers will continue to focus on fuel economy and alternative vehicles, said Cisco Codina, vice president for North American sales and marketing.

The automaker is fighting perceptions that it has not focused on alternative fuels -- despite the fact that it was the first domestic automaker to bring a hybrid vehicle to the US market -- and plans to offer E-85 flexible fuel engines in half its nameplates, Codina told reporters recently.

"We are committed to being more fuel efficient and bringing more fuel efficient vehicles to the marketplace," he said.

"I think the consumer is really going to look at whether they want a V6 a 4-cylinder or a hybrid and that's just going to be another powertrain in the market place."

The question is how many consumers will choose the hybrid -- and how much more damage will be done to the environment in the meantime.



http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070211/bs_afp/usclimatewarming_070211234607

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The article says that it will be decades before we cut our gasoline use. I don't agree. It should say it will be decades before we cut our gasoline use (and still drive the same amount or more) with advancements in technology. I'm still betting on peak oil and energy crisis curbing our gasoline use in the next few years.

The giant oil field in Mexico, Cantarell, is declining much faster than previously predicted. The north sea is crashing. Russia is struggling to keep up with demand and Saudi Arabia is "voluntarily" cutting back production. We aren't exactly on the best of terms with Venezuela. Of course production in the US has be declining since the early 70's. Drop by drop, America is becoming more and more dependent on a increasingly unstable middle east. Who knows when the situation in Iran is going to blow up in our face?

I'm personally looking forward to the time when my eBikes and scooters are more important mode of transportation than my car. Actually, i already ride my ebike to school almost every chance I get. The wife and I hardly ever use the car on weekends.

It would be weird if all this talk about brushless motors, 40 amp controllers and Lithium batteries were to become common place. I think it can happen.
 
If the average person wants economy on 2 wheels, a 50cc scooter is the ticket. Fuel costs are probably less than wear and tear on a lithium pack, and even if gas doubled in price a Yamaha BWS would still cost peanuts to operate.
 
If gas was $6 per gallon, a scooter getting 80 miles per gallon would cost $0.075 per mile just for gas.

The latest Lithium batteries are said to last 2000 charges. If you charge once per day and the pack cost $600, that's $0.30 for the pack and $0.12 for the charge (1 kw for 1 hr is much more than most battery packs can hold but i've rounded up for convience sake).

Based on this math, you've broken even with the gas scooter at 0.42/0.075 = 5.6 miles!

You can play with the numbers a little but from a cost to operate perspective, electric is pretty attractive-- even with lithium batteries.
 
jondoh said:
It would be weird if all this talk about brushless motors, 40 amp controllers and Lithium batteries were to become common place. I think it can happen.

We seem to be moving that direction. But, it might be centered more on 4-wheelers: people in this country are addicted to their little steel coccoons.

If battery technology continues to develop at the current pace, we may see plug-in hybrids common in four years.

The best thing might be if a prestige brand produced an expensive PiH. A Lexus PiH could do more for the trend than a Ford Escape Pih, even though the Escape is more likely to arrive sooner. Giving the well-to-do a way to have their elite car and save the planet could be a marketing angle for manufacturers to exploit, and others to imitate.

A $55K BMW SUV PiH, or Lexus, or Mercedes could let the doctors, lawyers and wannabe tycoons cruise their egos around town in style, and feel good about "being Green".

I saw a billboard yesterday headlining "20MPG!!....Hummer!" Sheesh.


:?
 
It's pretty sad (but true) that over the long run, the battery replacement cost is higher than the cost of the energy used.
I guess I shouldn't complain or they'll raise the price of electricity.
 
It's pretty sad (but true) that over the long run, the battery replacement cost is higher than the cost of the energy used.

This is true of a car battery which can cost thousands of dollars for the latest lithiums providing enough energy for an electric car.

Having the latest technology has never been cheap but we definately need to make progress.

It's actually exciting to think that we can afford to employ the latest technologies on our small scale scooters and bikes.
 
jondoh said:
If gas was $6 per gallon, a scooter getting 80 miles per gallon would cost $0.075 per mile just for gas.

The latest Lithium batteries are said to last 2000 charges. If you charge once per day and the pack cost $600, that's $0.30 for the pack and $0.12 for the charge (1 kw for 1 hr is much more than most battery packs can hold but i've rounded up for convience sake).

Based on this math, you've broken even with the gas scooter at 0.42/0.075 = 5.6 miles!

You can play with the numbers a little but from a cost to operate perspective, electric is pretty attractive-- even with lithium batteries.

$600? Even the economy ebike lithium pack I'd want costs $1200+, and I'd like to see those '2000 charges' verified by real world users. I suspect the real number would be less than half of that.
 
$1200 and 1000 charges once per day = $1.2 for the batteries.

for a 2kwh battery, charge costs = $0.24

Energy cost for electric = $1.42

If gas = $6 per gallon and a 50cc scooter gets 80 mpg, cost per mile just for gas = $0.075

$1.42 / $0.075 = 19.2 miles to break even.
 
To be fair, a BWS puts down around 3kW at the rear wheel, so figure at least 3.5kW out of the battery. It also has a range of 100+ miles per tank, so an equivalent electric will cost $$. A few thousand minimum for the battery pack...
 
so you want to build an electric motorcycle? How fast? What range?

How big is this battery you're looking at?
 
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