The 2017 EV's

General Discussion about electric vehicles.
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The 2017 EV's

Post by arkmundi » Jun 30, 2015 7:58 am

Anyone thinking of buying a new car of the EV variety would be advised to hold off on their decision until the 2017 model year line-up is available for purchase. It will be a banner year for EV's. In the running See the Time, 29-June-15 article: The Case for Buying an Electric Car Is About to Get a Whole Lot Better, a brief overview of the emerging 2017 year line-up. These models are all aiming for for a roughly $35K price range that also relieves range anxiety, the primary reasons why there has yet to be wide adoption of the new transportation paradigm. So, makes aiming for the 'holy grail' of EVs: long-range, but affordable. We're definitely not there yet, but 2017 appears to be the year leading contenders will all emerge.

In an interesting note, German luxury car giant BMW is looking to go all-electric over the next 10 years due to the upcoming stricter carbon emission laws. Virtually every BMW model would be converted to electric drivetrains, including range-extending engines and plug-in hybrids. I'm curious now whether other major manufacturers will follow the lead.

In light of the fact that G7 leaders agree to phase out fossil fuel use by end of century, we should be sure that CEO's have likely started to plan for that eventuality.

Rules for the Race to the Mass Market EV
  • Must be in production for the 2017 model year
  • Be an EV, meaning its electric, not a hybrid
  • Made for the global market, so available everywhere, including North America
  • Have a retail price less than than $39,900
  • Have a useful range... its the price/range ratio that will lead to a winner
  • Can be serviced, and importantly, the battery
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by Joseph C. » Jun 30, 2015 8:09 am

It's basically going to be either the LEAF or the Model 3.

Nissan are rumoured to be releasing a 30KW/hr LEAF next year and a 300km plus car in 2017. And we all know what Tesla is planning.

That BMW i3 is basically over-priced junk - it's a concept car that for whatever reason has been made publicly available. It's not a finished product.

Edit: I should have also mentioned that all BMWs are junk - its not as if the i3 is a special exception and they want the project to bomb.
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by arkmundi » Jun 30, 2015 8:12 am

I would not as yet so lightly dismiss BMW from the running. Its too early to see which car maker will emerge as the leader. Just saying that the race is on and the race to watch is the 2017 model year. But yea, the bet's on. I'm not ready to place my money yet.

Technology wise, I'd also think Tesla. But the speculation is that they'll be late to the race, not able to get their Model 3 into production by then. Chevy will have an entry in the Bolt, as well as the new Nissan Leaf. Ford has lost money on its EV's so far, but they also keep plugging away (pun intended).

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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by Joseph C. » Jun 30, 2015 8:23 am

arkmundi wrote:I would not as yet so lightly dismiss BMW from the running. Its too early to see which car maker will emerge as the leader. Just saying that the race is on and the race to watch is the 2017 model year. But yea, the bet's on. I'm not ready to place my money yet.
I would - their cars are terrible. All of them. They even decided to remove dipsticks so drivers will never know the proper oil levels. :? There is a car that is designed to fail.

Like other German cars they are consistently at the top of the list of the least reliable cars. Here is the latest data:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32332210

In 2012 BMW had the worst car on the list.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars ... -cars.html
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by arkmundi » Jun 30, 2015 8:29 am

For every negative there is often a positive. But OK. It should always be buyer beware, a challenge to do the research, and all offers of data should be on the table. I'm more interested in adding in potential contenders at this point, than dismissing them. Who's in the game? They have to have a real entry and likely of emerging as the leader of the field.

We should not dismiss Google or Apple either, who are looking for not just affordable w/range, but also self-driving. I doubt that they will go into production themselves (though still a possibility), but as with all things electronic, out-source to China. And in that regards, we should perhaps include the new Fisker. The Wanxiang Group not only bought A123 out of bankruptcy, but also the Fisker. Already a major car maker in China and the far-East, Wanxiang is looking at the global market too.

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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by Joseph C. » Jun 30, 2015 10:26 am

Nissan and Tesla will be the dominant worldwide players. Mitsubishi also make a solid electric car that is ripe for a range upgrade and they have potential to join that duo.

A Mahindra e2o with a larger battery might be an outsider bet as well as SCP in Ireland.

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/car-ma ... 7-Jun2015/

The thing with BMW is that the public will be less tolerant of shoddy engineering when it comes to driving new technologies. Most people don't like the risk of the unknown and will be harsher critics than they would with familiar technology. That's one of the reasons I don't see that company becoming a big player. BMW have a great public perception but I don't think that will extend to electric cars.

Then again I could be gravely wrong - and people not only still buy their cars in large quantities but they proselytise about how great they are too. :mrgreen:
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by Hillhater » Jun 30, 2015 5:39 pm

I tend to think the most successful EV will be the one that cracks the range / price balance most effectively.
Doing that will require several things to achieved..
1). Battery technology improvement
2). Production efficiency and volume
Tesla may have the technology ( or maybe not !..they could be leapfrogged in technology ?), but they have yet to show they can efficiently produce vehicles in volume or meet launch dates .
Established auto producers have the ability and resources to put new tech and vehicles into mass production much quicker and should have that advantage ...all they need is the battery technology.
So, it's all down to who can commercialise the best battery tech ?
I also suspect Toyota ( who have more electric drive experience than any of the others), may be hiding their cards in this game !
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by neptronix » Jun 30, 2015 5:52 pm

arkmundi wrote:In light of the fact that G7 leaders agree to phase out fossil fuel use by end of century, we should be sure that CEO's have likely started to plan for that eventuality.
That's hilarious to even mention. Like we're going to have a drop of fossil fuels left by 2100, anyway? :lol: wow, what a bold statement of action there :lol:. There have been a lot of 'feel good' announcements by authorities like this lately - where they plan to 'phase something out' right at the time that technology, resource limitations, or the market would have phased it out.

You're totally right about waiting until 2017 though.
Basically, 2017 CAFE standards, state standards, ZEV credits etc. are coming really into play in the next 2 years, so basically we're getting 'compliance cars' that are actually decent.

The question will then be - which automaker is gonna make one of these cars that isn't designed to last no longer than the warranty period? my two best guesses would have to be Nissan, GM, and Toyota because of their former experience.
Ford never really got many EVs out there. BMW has been pulling planned obsolescence BS for decades. Everyone else has even less experience as a company with building electric vehicles and will desperately klodge something together just to make the mandates.
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by arkmundi » Jun 30, 2015 6:10 pm

neptronix wrote:
arkmundi wrote:In light of the fact that G7 leaders agree to phase out fossil fuel use by end of century, we should be sure that CEO's have likely started to plan for that eventuality.
That's hilarious to even mention. Like we're going to have a drop of fossil fuels left by 2100, anyway? :lol: wow, what a bold statement of action there :lol:. There have been a lot of 'feel good' announcements by authorities like this lately - where they plan to 'phase something out' right at the time that technology, resource limitations, or the market would have phased it out.
I happy you had a hilarious moment at my experience. I'll give that to you gratis. See, no rebuttal about it being a bold statement. I woulda' called it audacious, though. Sometimes governments do or say things last, only when obvious and/or necessary. Its not the last half of the oil left in the ground past peak-oil, if that's what you mean, that I'm worried about. Nor President Obama, on down, or on up to the G7. Its not the running out thing that's a problem. Its the burning it now thing in the context of global climate catastrophe and weather weirding. But go ahead, take another moment of hilarity if you want.
Hillhater wrote: Tesla may have the technology ( or maybe not !..they could be leapfrogged in technology ?), but they have yet to show they can efficiently produce vehicles in volume or meet launch dates .
... or make a profit, at anything, excepting PayPal that is. I hear Elon Musk just had the worst birthday, ever. After his recent SpaceX launch burst into flames after launch.

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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by neptronix » Jun 30, 2015 6:51 pm

I don't mean that it's hilarious that we're going to continue to pollute until all the pollution juice is gone.

I mean that it's hilarious that these people get together and circlejerk like this and somehow, the public doesn't see it for what it is. This happens all the time. We banned whale hunting for whale oil right after we figured out how to refine oil from petroleum, but not because it was moral, but because this new oil was superior. We banned slavery as soon as we designed machines to automate slave's work, and produce more work for a lesser cost - not because it was the moral thing to do. But the people who do the banning get credit, while we forget the folks who continued such evil and destructive practices. And the real folks who deserve the credit are those who designed the technology that made it possible. Those are the real people we should be parading down the streets and remembering fondly in history books. Same goes for EVs..

Recently, I heard a bunch of my liberal friends recently bowing down to our president's altar for working against coal's pollutants 'as a way to decrease co2 emissions'. They were so deep in worship that when i told them this means that this is simply a shift to more fracking ( which is exactly what has happened under Obama and Bush ), and that more fracking = more methane release, which is 8 times more potent as a 'greenhouse gas', they were so deep in worship that they never heard my words.. previously, they worshipped our president for increasing domestic oil drilling so much, now they're mad about all the oil spills and exploding oil trains that are happening in their backyard. Oops.

These silly faux-environmentalist and faux-justice type statements deserve to never be echoed. They're basically empty statements. That is all.

Here's to a sweet EV future, brought to you by the real people behind it; not politicians, but inventors and tinkerers like ourselves.
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by arkmundi » Jun 30, 2015 7:15 pm

neptronix wrote:... a shift to more fracking ( which is exactly what has happened under Obama and Bush ), and that more fracking = more methane release, which is 8 times more potent as a 'greenhouse gas', they were so deep in worship that they never heard my words.. previously, they worshipped our president for increasing domestic oil drilling so much, now they're mad about all the oil spills and exploding oil trains that are happening in their backyard. Oops.
Only methane is upwards to 100 times more potent in raditative forcing units, in the short term, before atmospheric degradation. But the amount released through fracking for natural gas is not the problem. Its the amount released naturally as the Arctic heats, as its doing, and now being measured - the single greatest feedback loop in the cycle. Still convinced of NTHE in the 2050-2100 time-frame, mostly because of the methane being released.

Other threads for that dialogue - just briefly mentioned to reinforce the trend to EV.

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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by arkmundi » Jun 30, 2015 8:27 pm

General Motors Company Joins Tesla Motors Inc Mission For Mass EV Adoption
It looks like rest of the automakers other than Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) are joining Elon Musk’s goal for a mass market electric vehicle (EV) adoption. During an interview with LinkedIn Corp’s (NYSE:LNKD) executive editor Daniel Roth, as reported by Business Insider, GM Chief Executive Mary Barra shared her company’s views to provide the auto electrification technology to “everyone, …Not just the elite...

... Tesla Motor’s Model 3 is priced at $35,000 before federal tax credit, while GM‘s Chevy Bolt will come with a price tag of $30,000 after federal tax rebates.... But GM is likely going to win the Chevy Bolt vs. Model 3 race as GM has already started production of its EV at Orion Assembly Plant.”

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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by neptronix » Jun 30, 2015 8:31 pm

All depends on whether customers want a retarded looking small hatchback or a nice car. :lol:
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by Arlo1 » Jun 30, 2015 9:51 pm

You will want to add the soul EV to that list. They won't sell any unless the have competitive range to the rest of the cars on the market.
We are looking at a new car in 1-2 years so fingers crossed.
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by arkmundi » Jul 01, 2015 7:28 am

The Kia Soul EV
KiaSoulEV.png
KiaSoulEV.png (143.82 KiB) Viewed 4069 times
Note that I have amended the list, per request.

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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by arkmundi » Jul 01, 2015 8:45 am

Elux Karma
Its a long shot at the odds, but I added the Elux Karma to the running. Formerly Fisker, maker of the Karma, in production 2011-2012 before they went bankrupt. They were bought up by the Wanxiang Group at the same time they picked up battery maker A123. So just like Tesla, they are aiming to make batteries and cars. That puts them in a unique position for achieving the holy grail of affordable price plus extended range. Note that A123 holds the patents for nano-phosphate, a uniquely superior chemistry for batteries with long cycle life, high C-rates and safety. And its going to be the battery that makes or breaks the seekers of the grail in their quest.

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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by Hillhater » Jul 01, 2015 5:08 pm

I don't think there will be a Toyota RAV4 EV in 2017 ?
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by Arlo1 » Jul 02, 2015 12:54 am

Hillhater wrote:I don't think there will be a Toyota RAV4 EV in 2017 ?
Yeah I think Toyota pulled the plug on it already and they are saying they don't believe in electrics and H2 is the future. :roll:
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by neptronix » Jul 02, 2015 1:30 am

Haha Toyota.
In Japan, they are producing a meager 90 units of the Mirai per month, and have 2,000 pre-orders.
That's with something like $15,000 of subsidies paid for by Japan's taxpayers on top.

Hyundai is also sitting there wondering why their car isn't taking off and has sold/leased less than 400 units in a year.

What a joke.
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by arkmundi » Jul 02, 2015 2:16 am

OK, someone mentioned Toyota and they've done extensive R&D on EV's. Not a joke at all, though sales of EV's everywhere have been disappointing. Let's call the Mirai Toyota's entry. It is still electric, with Hydrogen as battery.
Hillhater wrote:I also suspect Toyota ( who have more electric drive experience than any of the others), may be hiding their cards in this game !
Digital Trends, 1-July-2015: The Toyota Mirai has the longest driving range of any zero emission vehicle, by far
The hydrogen-fueled Toyota Mirai may not beat Tesla’s P85D to 60 mph, but if the race is longer than 300 miles, it’ll likely cross the finish line first. Why? The Mirai boasts an estimated driving range of 312 miles according to the EPA, giving it the longest official range of any zero emission vehicle on the market...
... There is good news though, because for the first three years, Mirai customers will be able to fill up for free. After that, customers will enjoy an EPA-estimated 67 miles-per-gallon equivalent, hopefully making fuel stops few and far between.
But it breaks the price rule for now... will leave it speculating Toyota will have to bring the price down to stay a contender for the grail. Thread: Toyota Mirai - the fuel cell vehicle goes into production
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by The fingers » Jul 02, 2015 2:30 am

Not a Chevrolet Corvolt in the bunch. :(
Or, how about a Ford Greenstang or Lightningbird. :mrgreen:
Maybe an E Dodge Charger with a charger. :lol:
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by arkmundi » Jul 02, 2015 2:41 am

Had to look that one up...Next-Generation 2016 Chevy Volt To Resemble Corvette. Perhaps re-positioning the Volt as a sexy pricey high-end model? The game is sales figures going into the 2017 model year and its the price point set by Tesla for the Model 3, in the range of $35K that will make that happen.

OK, haha.

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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by Joseph C. » Jul 04, 2015 3:11 pm

New one to add to the list, ark. The Bluecar is now being manufactured by Renault. Actually you should probably add Renault as a separate entity from the Renault Nissan partnership. They have a whole series of electric cars(vehicles), the Twizy, Zoe ZE, Kango ZE and Fluence ZE.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bollor%C3%A9_Bluecar

Pretty impressive battery for a small car - 30KW/hr pack but I'm not sure about the chemistry - the Wiki description seems to be generic to every polymer chemistry. Range is apparently 250km which is very impressive - probably about 180 to 200km at 90kph. And it costs just €19,000 which is €9,000 if you're French. :shock:

Edit: Bollore own the battery which costs €79 a month. And the incentive is €6,300 unless you are trading in a diesel which gives you the full €10,000.

I see that Bluestar are expanding their vehicle share scheme to London and cities in the US between now and next year. €120 euro yearly subscription and 18 cent per minute of use gets you the use of car whenever you want without the burdens of car ownership.
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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by arkmundi » Jul 07, 2015 2:49 pm

As Global Nissan LEAF Odometer Passes 1 Billion Miles, Nissan Celebrates Sale of 10,000th LEAF in UK
According to official figures collected by the UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturing and Traders (SMMT), sales of the all-electric hatchback have exploded in the first half of 2015, totalling 2,964 LEAF sales. That’s a 68.4 percent increase on last year, where just 1,760 LEAFs were sold to UK buyers in the first half of 2014.

Market share for the Nissan LEAF in the UK is up too, with the five-seat plug-in accounting for 63.3 percent of all new all-electric models during the first half of 2015, beating the Tesla Model S, BMW i3, Renault ZOE and Volkswagen Golf to name a few.

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Re: The 2017 EV's

Post by LockH » Jul 07, 2015 3:06 pm

(Sorry, lost the link offhand.) A recent test proved conclusively it is definitely more "Eco-Friendly" to be hit/run over by an electric "car"!
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