Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

General Discussion about electric vehicles.
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Feb 14, 2018 11:30 pm

Punx0r wrote:
Feb 14, 2018 7:33 am
If one 211MW reciprocating peaker plant makes a 1600MW coal plant redundant then that is a massive gain in efficiency
Why on earth would you criticise the capacity factor of a peaker plant? "This piece of equipment that is designed to run briefly every now and again doesn't run 100% of the time!"
1)... Its NOT a peaker plant.
2)... It will NOT replace the older GAS fired thermal plants, because the state is constantly having to import 500-600 MW of power from neibouring states, so they cannot cut any other generating capacity .
3)... This plant is designed to operate as a fast starting back up plant for when the wind farms fall short on wind, (which happens almost daily in SA ). and means the plant will be running for periods of 12-48 hours continuously at times.
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Feb 14, 2018 11:48 pm

billvon wrote:
Feb 14, 2018 3:05 pm
Hillhater wrote:
Feb 13, 2018 10:32 pm
even that limited capacity diesel plant can provide 5+ GWh per day if needed.
If they needed that sort of energy they should have installed a fast startup combined cycle gas plant....
.....yes..and of much greater capacity. That was my point !
How expensive would a similar capacity BESS be ?
billvon wrote:
Feb 14, 2018 3:05 pm
...Very expensive - because that's not what you use BESS for....
..So why did you suggest it ?
..and what would you use to charge it ?
billvon wrote:
Feb 14, 2018 3:05 pm
Solar, wind, spare conventional generation, the usual......
But the state is already hundres of MW short on generating capacity, so there is no surplus available ,..let alone for a 5GWh charge !
But it would not be needed at all if the output from the wind farms was more consistent.
billvon wrote:
Feb 14, 2018 3:05 pm
Or if they got themselves a BESS.
Duhh ?... I think that gets us back to the original point of this facility...to back up the wind farms irratic supply !
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Punx0r » Feb 15, 2018 5:46 am

If this thing is intended to often run for 2 days straight then that makes it baseload? Just not a regular one? It's definitely not a peaker and not a load follower as they ramp down at night (less than 24hr usage pattern).

Regardless, I struggle to understand why someone would select reciprocating engines for that (and diesel rather than natural gas fuelled, really?!). Maybe they were cheaper based solely on initial purchase.

Like I said before, something is screwed up with your power supply, but I think it is management/politics, not the RE technology per se

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by billvon » Feb 15, 2018 11:50 am

Hillhater wrote:
Feb 14, 2018 11:48 pm
.....yes..and of much greater capacity. That was my point !
No, you missed the point.
If they need ENERGY, then solar or wind or a CCS gas turbine is a great way to go.
If they need POWER to stabilize the grid, then BESS makes more sense.

Do you understand the difference between energy and power?
..So why did you suggest it ?
See above.
But the state is already hundres of MW short on generating capacity, so there is no surplus available ,..let alone for a 5GWh charge !
So add solar or wind or natural gas.
Duhh ?... I think that gets us back to the original point of this facility...to back up the wind farms irratic supply !
Exactly. It enables cheap energy for consumers.
--bill von

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by billvon » Feb 15, 2018 11:54 am

Punx0r wrote:
Feb 15, 2018 5:46 am
If this thing is intended to often run for 2 days straight then that makes it baseload? Just not a regular one? It's definitely not a peaker and not a load follower as they ramp down at night (less than 24hr usage pattern).
Here in the US, there has been an attempt to define baseload as "plants that can store 90 days of fuel on site." (Note that this means that natural gas plants and large hydro plants are not covered.) If this doesn't make much sense, it's because it was a political effort to save coal fired power plants.
Regardless, I struggle to understand why someone would select reciprocating engines for that (and diesel rather than natural gas fuelled, really?!). Maybe they were cheaper based solely on initial purchase.
Cheaper and faster starting. And if they are needed for very short periods of time the fuel costs aren't huge.

(However I agree that a natural gas fueled recip, or even a boosted diesel recip, would be cheaper still.)
--bill von

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Feb 15, 2018 9:30 pm

Punx0r wrote:
Feb 15, 2018 5:46 am
......
Like I said before, something is screwed up with your power supply, but I think it is management/politics, not the RE technology per se
Yes, it is politics...."Green" politics to be precise, which have dictated poor energy strategy decisions to eliminate all existing coal power, and commit to RE for "base load".
This now means they have to find a way to cope with the huge and unpredictable variations in generation output.
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Feb 15, 2018 10:01 pm

billvon wrote:
Feb 15, 2018 11:50 am
Hillhater wrote:
Feb 14, 2018 11:48 pm
.....yes..and of much greater capacity. That was my point !
No, you missed the point.
If they need ENERGY, then solar or wind or a CCS gas turbine is a great way to go.
If they need POWER to stabilize the grid, then BESS makes more sense.
Do you understand the difference between energy and power?...
No , i did not miss the point.
But I admit you have me confused,..... but obviously not as confused as you are...
The SA grid needs more POWER (600+MW). for long periods of time ..12+ hrs at a time, often much longer.
Which means they need a lot of ENERGY, (7-10 GWh)
This new 210MW plant could at least supply 5 GWh per day, not enough but much much more than any concievable BESS .
So again bill, ...why suggest a BESS for that situation ? when you have already said its not practical ?
Hillhater wrote:
Feb 14, 2018 11:48 pm
But the state is already hundres of MW short on generating capacity, so there is no surplus available ,..let alone for a 5GWh charge !
.
billvon wrote:
Feb 15, 2018 11:50 am
...So add solar or wind or natural gas.
I seriously hope you do not mean for recharging the BESS ! :shock:
And if you mean to make up the generating capacity shortage, then think again about solar or wind , and why they have the shortfall currently !
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by billvon » Feb 15, 2018 10:28 pm

Hillhater wrote:
Feb 15, 2018 10:01 pm
[The SA grid needs more POWER (600+MW). for long periods of time ..12+ hrs at a time, often much longer.
Which means they need a lot of ENERGY, (7-10 GWh)
I very much doubt they need it for "12+ hours at a time." Look at the demand curve; it peaks once, and it's not anywhere near flat.
This new 210MW plant could at least supply 5 GWh per day, not enough but much much more than any concievable BESS .
Why do you think that?
I seriously hope you do not mean for recharging the BESS !
Yes, I did. Most thermal plants are most efficient when run at or near full power. And at 2am, demand is very low. Recharging a BESS during those times both improves the overall efficiency of your generation stations and provides peak power for daytime peak loads.
--bill von

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by TheBeastie » Feb 16, 2018 12:41 am

Hillhater wrote:
Feb 15, 2018 10:01 pm
billvon wrote:
Feb 15, 2018 11:50 am
Hillhater wrote:
Feb 14, 2018 11:48 pm
.....yes..and of much greater capacity. That was my point !
No, you missed the point.
If they need ENERGY, then solar or wind or a CCS gas turbine is a great way to go.
If they need POWER to stabilize the grid, then BESS makes more sense.
Do you understand the difference between energy and power?...
No , i did not miss the point.
But I admit you have me confused,..... but obviously not as confused as you are...
The SA grid needs more POWER (600+MW). for long periods of time ..12+ hrs at a time, often much longer.
Which means they need a lot of ENERGY, (7-10 GWh)
This new 210MW plant could at least supply 5 GWh per day, not enough but much much more than any concievable BESS .
So again bill, ...why suggest a BESS for that situation ? when you have already said its not practical ?
Hillhater wrote:
Feb 14, 2018 11:48 pm
But the state is already hundres of MW short on generating capacity, so there is no surplus available ,..let alone for a 5GWh charge !
.
billvon wrote:
Feb 15, 2018 11:50 am
...So add solar or wind or natural gas.
I seriously hope you do not mean for recharging the BESS ! :shock:
And if you mean to make up the generating capacity shortage, then think again about solar or wind , and why they have the shortfall currently !
Yeah a lot of things these companies do now, especially AGL seem to be about limiting supply, just like how AGL are going to shutdown Liddel power-station and are refusing to sell it to anyone, they are going to shut it down and demolish it to ensure no one else can use it.
South Australia's imports as much as 30% of its electricity via the Victorian interstate grid, which is an extraordinary amount to rely on from another state, all depends on the weather how much they will import from Victoria.
2018-02-07 (15).png
2018-02-07 (15).png (75.51 KiB) Viewed 441 times
Came across these articles in Denmark (the home of windturbines) where the locals are fighting to stop them being built as they are noisy, alienate the locals and cause stress.
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/kv17/ ... de-stoejer
While I have seen such articles all over the world, there is a guy in Australia who just released a book on the subject Simon Chapman who claims windfarms causing health issues is a bunch of baloney and he even says he traveled to Denmark and everyone told them they have never ever heard of anyone having any issues living next to wind turbines.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/pro ... an/9396452
http://www.afr.com/lifestyle/health/men ... 127-gztyaw
Speed Kills Range, 10mph = 46 miles range, 20mph = 20 miles, 30mph = 8 miles range http://goo.gl/1JNL53
Over Charging Kills ur battery bit.ly/1hzWKl4
Beware of dodgy 18650 cells! youtu.be/eOshOXcSkDA
Consider PAS as your only throttle http://goo.gl/m17J9j
CO2 is core to Photosynthesis https://youtu.be/t5mvDONB6FI
Check out the Bill Gates nuclear reactor https://goo.gl/Rtky9q
10 Square Miles of solar panels = 0.12GW average power! https://goo.gl/Ub1S39

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Feb 16, 2018 1:13 am

billvon wrote:
Feb 15, 2018 10:28 pm
Hillhater wrote:
Feb 15, 2018 10:01 pm
[The SA grid needs more POWER (600+MW). for long periods of time ..12+ hrs at a time, often much longer.
Which means they need a lot of ENERGY, (7-10 GWh)
I very much doubt they need it for "12+ hours at a time." Look at the demand curve; it peaks once, and it's not anywhere near flat.
This new 210MW plant could at least supply 5 GWh per day, not enough but much much more than any concievable BESS .
Why do you think that?
I seriously hope you do not mean for recharging the BESS !
Yes, I did. Most thermal plants are most efficient when run at or near full power. And at 2am, demand is very low. Recharging a BESS during those times both improves the overall efficiency of your generation stations and provides peak power for daytime peak loads.
Jeez bill, get real and just look at the facts..
This is SA power gen and demand today. Typical except they probably had more wind than normal !
Image

Notice how much power they are importing..(purple)
Notice their max gas thermal capacity (red)= 1 GW .
At 2 am they are still importing power .
I will let you work out how much surplus energy they produced and how much they had to import.
Now tell me again , what capacity and what cost that BESS is going to be
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Chalo » Feb 16, 2018 3:08 am

Looks like they need more PV solar.
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Feb 16, 2018 3:51 am

You must not be aware of the Thermal Solar plan for SA.
Another $650m or so, for a 150 MW solar tower with 8 hrs of storage.
If you do the maths, that averages out at <60 MWh equivalent continuous..if the sun shines 100%
..except in winter when there is not enough sun to run the plant at all !!
Truely a "World Class" dumb idea !
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by sendler2112 » Feb 16, 2018 6:31 am

Solar pv with a Westerly set would help 14:00 to 18:00. The other two peaks at 07:00 and Midnight are a problem. I assume peak demand would be much less in the Winter. The big issue in the whole discussion of SA is that they are shutting down carbon generation without first having replaced it. And no availablity for economic growth. It also appears that the major populations in Victoria are quite a ways from the good sun in the interior.
.
http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/performance#4/-28.77/134.91
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Punx0r » Feb 16, 2018 8:13 am

sendler2112 wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 6:31 am
The big issue in the whole discussion of SA is that they are shutting down carbon generation without first having replaced it.
I think that's a fair assessment. Like I say, it's a local political issue but Hillhater uses it to assume RE cannot work anywhere on the planet.

What's the probable cause of the demand spike at midnight? Seems a bit strange. Maybe these are timed loads to take advantage of what would otherwise be the start of the low demand period?
Hillhater wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 3:51 am
Another $650m or so, for a 150 MW solar tower with 8 hrs of storage.
If you do the maths, that averages out at <60 MWh equivalent continuous..if the sun shines 100%
..except in winter when there is not enough sun to run the plant at all !!
$650M AUS for 150MW is $4300/kW = $3443 USD/kW. Compare with coal at ~$3500/kW

The storage would allow the thing to continue supporting the peak evening demand and possible even the early morning one. It obviously wouldn't need to run all night when there's little demand. Similarly it wouldn't need to run during the winter when there's little demand for air-conditioning (which seems to the problematic demand in S. Aus.).

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Feb 16, 2018 4:51 pm

Punx0r wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 8:13 am

What's the probable cause of the demand spike at midnight? Seems a bit strange. Maybe these are timed loads to take advantage of what would otherwise be the start of the low demand period?..
....yes , its the old 11pm, "Off Peak" timer meter for water heaters etc.
Hillhater wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 3:51 am
Another $650m or so, for a 150 MW solar tower with 8 hrs of storage.
If you do the maths, that averages out at <60 MWh equivalent continuous..if the sun shines 100%
..except in winter when there is not enough sun to run the plant at all !!
Punx0r wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 8:13 am
$650M AUS for 150MW is $4300/kW = $3443 USD/kW. Compare with coal at ~$3500/kW

The storage would allow the thing to continue supporting the peak evening demand and possible even the early morning one. It obviously wouldn't need to run all night when there's little demand. Similarly it wouldn't need to run during the winter when there's little demand for air-conditioning (which seems to the problematic demand in S. Aus.).
ITS NOT a PEAK demand problem !......Its a generation shortage that is the issue.
Remember its solar, so it can only supply or store 8 or so hours of energy ...
Say 8x150MW = 1200 MWh per day at best....which would be 440 GWh per year absolute max.
A similar priced (Your fugures) 150 MW coal plant could supply 24/7, or 1300 GWh per year if needed.
So which is better value .
PS... In winter the commercial demand remains and the domestic switches to heating.
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by billvon » Feb 16, 2018 5:08 pm

Hillhater wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 4:51 pm
ITS NOT a PEAK demand problem !......Its a generation shortage that is the issue.
Cool. Then if all you need is generation, then install a lot of cheap solar.

However, I think you will find that peak demand still matters.
--bill von

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Feb 16, 2018 6:40 pm

:roll: :roll: :roll:
And do what for the 18 hrs the sun is not shining ?
I guess you dont bother looking at data graphs posted ?
...if you had , you may have noticed the continual power import during the night.

Solar and wind advocates refuse to accept the concept of "Base load" ...the simple fact that most utility grids experience a demand minimum that is never exceeded, with normal operational demand always higher than that base level. Its a generation capacity that must be available 24/7.
Of course , that reality does not work well with sources that are either totally intermittent (solar) , or highly variable (wind). And throw in the unpredictability factor for both, then you see why a continuous Base load is a concept they would rather argue against than accept.
BESS, Solar Thermal, Pumped Hydro, etc etc , have all been proposed as substitutes to "time shift" stored power and even out the supply variations, but its becoming increasingly obvious that none of them are viable solutions on a national (or State) scale utility grid.
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by wineboyrider » Feb 16, 2018 7:33 pm

Most Australians heat their homes with electricity? Here it's propane or natural gas. Natural gas is super cheap nowadays.[url][https://www.nmgco.com/Current_Natural_G ... s.aspx/url]
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by jonescg » Feb 16, 2018 8:22 pm

wineboyrider wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 7:33 pm
Most Australians heat their homes with electricity? Here it's propane or natural gas. Natural gas is super cheap nowadays.[url][https://www.nmgco.com/Current_Natural_G ... s.aspx/url]
Gas was cheap here until the export marked exploded - now it's getting rather pricey. Natural gas producers would rather export it for better margins. As a result, domestic gas has gotten rather expensive - at least as expensive as heating your home with electricity. In Victoria it's cheaper to heat your home and cook with electricity than gas.

The proposed solar thermal station planned for South Australia is claimed to have a capacity factor of about 30%, which is rather good considering its challenges. I do agree with Hillhater though, that it's a hell of a lot of money to spend on a 150 MW peak generator, but at the same time I am excited to see how it pans out. It might have been better to build a PV+Battery system for the same or a bit less money, and have the benefit of being able to accept power from all forms (wind, PV, arbitrage).

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by wineboyrider » Feb 16, 2018 8:28 pm

jonescg wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 8:22 pm
wineboyrider wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 7:33 pm
Most Australians heat their homes with electricity? Here it's propane or natural gas. Natural gas is super cheap nowadays.[url][https://www.nmgco.com/Current_Natural_G ... s.aspx/url]
Gas was cheap here until the export marked exploded - now it's getting rather pricey. Natural gas producers would rather export it for better margins. As a result, domestic gas has gotten rather expensive - at least as expensive as heating your home with electricity. In Victoria it's cheaper to heat your home and cook with electricity than gas.

The proposed solar thermal station planned for South Australia is claimed to have a capacity factor of about 30%, which is rather good considering its challenges. I do agree with Hillhater though, that it's a hell of a lot of money to spend on a 150 MW peak generator, but at the same time I am excited to see how it pans out. It might have been better to build a PV+Battery system for the same or a bit less money, and have the benefit of being able to accept power from all forms (wind, PV, arbitrage).
Amazing the climate similarities though between the southwest and most of Australia, but a stark difference in energy mix. Only places I can think of electricity as a cheap heating source is where Hydro is plentiful.
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by sjd.aliyan » Feb 17, 2018 12:17 am

both renewable and fossil fuels/nuclears have benefits.what we can do?

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Feb 17, 2018 12:37 am

wineboyrider wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 7:33 pm
Most Australians heat their homes with electricity? Here it's propane or natural gas. Natural gas is super cheap nowadays.[url][https://www.nmgco.com/Current_Natural_G ... s.aspx/url]
There has been a huge uptake of A/C systems througout Australia, such that Reverse Cycle A/C is rapidly becoming the prefered cold weather heating method , replacing gas and even solid fuel fires...(together with those trendy log burner stoves !)
Also there is less daylight hours for any rooftop solar to harvest power, and a longer period for lighting requirements.
So whilst these is still reduced electricity demand in winter months, its not a defined as it used to be.
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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by sendler2112 » Feb 17, 2018 8:24 am

California had a sunny day again yesterday. It's interesting how flat the peak from solar is shown. Flat accross from Noon to 18:00. And how much they can vary the hydro. Very poor wind again though.

NY cruises along 16 GW at 200gm/ kWh with 50% hydro and nuclear.

Germany had good sun and wind yesterday making it down toward 300 gm/ kWh. Today, not so good. And the data just now dropped out! I hope it comes back.

Looks like all of the solar and wind build out in India is in the North West Gujarat area.

South Australia had a good day with 20% of 1.5GW from solar at noon and now the wind is finally whipping with 500MW out of 1.5GW installed.
.
https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=ma ... wind=false
.

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by billvon » Feb 17, 2018 11:24 am

Hillhater wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 6:40 pm
And do what for the 18 hrs the sun is not shining ?
I think you're starting to lose track of your own arguments.
Solar and wind advocates refuse to accept the concept of "Base load" ...the simple fact that most utility grids experience a demand minimum that is never exceeded, with normal operational demand always higher than that base level. Its a generation capacity that must be available 24/7.
Right. And for now that will be met with conventional generation. That will slowly change with time, as storage and conventional renewables expand.
BESS, Solar Thermal, Pumped Hydro, etc etc , have all been proposed as substitutes to "time shift" stored power and even out the supply variations, but its becoming increasingly obvious that none of them are viable solutions on a national (or State) scale utility grid.
In 20 years, a significant amount of our power will come from time-shifted intermittent renewables.
--bill von

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Feb 17, 2018 5:32 pm

billvon wrote:
Feb 17, 2018 11:24 am
Hillhater wrote:
Feb 16, 2018 6:40 pm
And do what for the 18 hrs the sun is not shining ?
I think you're starting to lose track of your own arguments.
What makes you think that ?

..In 20 years, a significant amount of our power will come from time-shifted intermittent renewables.
Utility scale ?... Using exactly which forms of storage do you believe ?
Before that "dream" materialises, i suspect we will have much better options for base load generation.
Until then, we better make the most of our fossil resources.
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