At $3.00 per gallon the break even point is about 10 years (one image and a brief excerpt below):
http://gas2.org/2009/03/27/is-the-tesla-model-s-really-for-the-rest-of-us-gallery/#more-2071
You can see for yourself that at $2/gallon gas it would take 15 years before the Model S made up for its initial cost. However, at $3/gallon it’s 8-9 years, at $4/gallon it’s 6-7 years, and at $5/gallon the costs are nearly identical for the first 5 years. It’s worth noting that in all cases, after you make up for the initial cost of the Model S, the savings really start to pile on

My $0.02:
Gas will probably go up to more than $3 per gallon over the next 10 years.
Good luck on getting a replacement battery pack for $4k.
I'd never purchase a car made by a company run by the founder of Paypal (don't need pals like that).








