Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Batteries, Chargers, and Battery Management Systems.

Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Sun May 13, 2012 12:52 am

Attention Battery Experts (and others knowledgeable) including Luke, Doctorbass, BigMoose, Fechter, Justin, EDIT: And ANYONE that can search out info on the net, patents, research "think tanks", university thesis' or academic published works, science mags, solid news, whatever:

This thread is for posting your informed predictions (not WAG) or research or news about when will battery energy density double capacity AND be sold for the similar weight, size, price we have available now? :?:

As I see it, doubling energy density/capacity will extend range enough to double & triple EV sales and well beyond.

Battery manufacturers are The Gatekeepers that will either allow this EV "small transport" industry to succeed wildly or fail in too slow a growth curve & flat-line.

What have you read or learned that can give us a feel for when this might happen? :?:

Is this a reasonable or unreasonable expectation? :idea:

If you think this is unreasonable to expect this within 8 years from 2012, then what about increasing energy density by 50% more capacity? Is that going to happen within 8 years or 5 years from now? When :?:

Thanks! :D

P.S. Edit: Guys, the next Microsoft/Google will someday soon be a battery company. Want to be a millionaire? :?: Find that company & invest.

Edit: Good article on why this is important. Follow Link Below:

Why Battery Capacity Must Double Soon! IMO.

Range Anxiety
There are electric motorcycles that claim to get over 100 miles of range, but if you read the motorcycle forums, you might be shocked to hear just how exaggerated those claims are. Consumers are already suspicious of electric vehicle range claims. This situation is made much worse for the electric motorcycle industry by the Motorcycle Industry Council's (MIC) adoption of range tests that do not reflect real world electric motorcycle riding.
Last edited by deVries on Tue May 22, 2012 10:29 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Sun May 13, 2012 1:10 am

Luke, Doctorbass, BigMoose please offer your opinions too! 8)

Here's something SpinningMagnets found:

Unfortunately, no word on when this could happen:
In 2008, Cui founded a company, Amprius, which licensed rights to Stanford’s patents for his silicon nanowire anode technology. Its near-term goal is to produce a battery with double the energy density of today’s lithium-ion batteries.


spinningmagnets wrote:http://phys.org/news/2012-05-nanostructure-batteries.html

...Up to four lithium ions bind to each of the atoms in a silicon anode – compared to just one for every six carbon atoms in today’s graphite anode – which allows it to store much more charge...


...Over the past five years, Cui’s group has progressively improved the durability of silicon anodes by making them out of nanowires and then hollow silicon nanoparticles. His latest design consists of a double-walled silicon nanotube coated with a thin layer of silicon oxide, a very tough ceramic material...This strong outer layer keeps the outside wall of the nanotube from expanding, so it stays intact. Instead, the silicon swells harmlessly into the hollow interior, which is also too small for electrolyte molecules to enter. After the first charging cycle, it operates for more than 6,000 cycles with 85 percent capacity remaining...
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby Dauntless » Sun May 13, 2012 7:02 pm

deVries wrote:[b]Luke, Doctorbass, BigMoose. . . .


Image

Doggone, I think you're confusing expert in working with existing batteries with expert in what's going on behind closed doors.

NOBODY KNOWS when the battery capacity will improve.
NOBODY KNOWS if the improved capacity will also be small and light enough for use in the projects of the people in this community.
NOBODY KNOWS if the materials needed for our superbattery have even made it to the laboratory yet.

NOBODY KNOWS if our faith in the scientists is misplaced. But we want to believe. . . .

Image
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Sun May 13, 2012 7:49 pm

Dauntless wrote:
deVries wrote:Luke, Doctorbass, BigMoose. . . .


Doggone, I think you're confusing expert in working with existing batteries with expert in what's going on behind closed doors.

NOBODY KNOWS when the battery capacity will improve.
NOBODY KNOWS if the improved capacity will also be small and light enough for use in the projects of the people in this community.
NOBODY KNOWS if the materials needed for our superbattery have even made it to the laboratory yet.

NOBODY KNOWS if our faith in the scientists is misplaced. But we want to believe. . . .


I don't think I've implied that anyone "knows" the answers? :?: :wink:

This is why I posted & wrote:
This thread is for posting your informed predictions (not WAG) or research or news about when will battery energy density double capacity AND be sold for the similar weight, size, price we have available now? :?:

What have you read or learned that can give us a feel for when this might happen?


Then I posted an example myself by providing a news story that SpinningMagnets found too. :D

Nothing wrong with asking experts using current technology for informed opinions or for their inside knowledge that often "outsiders" can never know or have access to. Also, interested persons in the subject often read trade/science magazines, university research, patents, or online info that we don't have access to or know where to find. Also, there are probably some research folks that read/post on ES that could offer some insight too. One never knows... AND, finally, this IS important, any one of us on ES can find some of this info if they're willing to search for it. You don't have to be a battery expert to find most of this information; just be a good searcher researcher. :idea: Plenty of people on ES do that all the time. 8)
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby flathill » Sun May 13, 2012 9:37 pm

It has already doubled from what you can buy but there is a gentlemens agreement to launch the next gen every 5 years so people can make what they invested back.

The next gen 5v cells are just rolling out so figure double in another 5 years unless China or homemade comes out of left field
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Sun May 13, 2012 10:05 pm

flathill wrote:It has already doubled from what you can buy but there is a gentlemens agreement to launch the next gen every 5 years so people can make what they invested back.

The next gen 5v cells are just rolling out so figure double in another 5 years unless China or homemade comes out of left field


Do you have some more specifics you can offer us about this? News story, published research, press release, etc.

Point us to the next gen 5v cells, etc.
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby StudEbiker » Sun May 13, 2012 11:15 pm

I saw this recently. It certainly looks interesting if it ever gets into production. The idea of filling a battery like you fill a gas tank would obviously move electric transport ahead by leaps and bounds.

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/flow ... -0606.html

The new design should make it possible to reduce the size and the cost of a complete battery system, including all of its structural support and connectors, to about half the current levels. That dramatic reduction could be the key to making electric vehicles fully competitive with conventional gas- or diesel-powered vehicles, the researchers say.
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby flathill » Sun May 13, 2012 11:50 pm

deVries wrote:
flathill wrote:It has already doubled from what you can buy but there is a gentlemens agreement to launch the next gen every 5 years so people can make what they invested back.

The next gen 5v cells are just rolling out so figure double in another 5 years unless China or homemade comes out of left field


Do you have some more specifics you can offer us about this? News story, published research, press release, etc.

Point us to the next gen 5v cells, etc.


The race for 5v cells has been on for a long time
Hardest part is finding a stable electrolyte
wildcat uses dna tech which is no tech at all
Just try everything

This press release is over a hear old
Wildcat Discovery Technologies Discloses Fundamental Advances in Rechargeable Battery Materials Technology

Newly developed 5-volt electrolyte, cathode material boost battery performance 25-65 percent in cars, electronics, other applications

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fundamental advances in rechargeable battery technology disclosed today by Wildcat Discovery Technologies could result in battery performance improvements of 25 to 65 percent or more in electric cars, portable electronics, military, medical devices, and other demanding applications.

“This is a breakthrough discovery by our development team, which can lead to batteries capable of storing much more energy than current materials allow”
Wildcat has developed a pair of new materials that set new standards for the rechargeable battery industry, by providing unprecedented energy density of more than 675 Wh/kg while operating in full cells at 5 volts – levels beyond today’s industry standards.

Wildcat’s EM1, a novel 5V electrolyte formulation, and CM1, a new high voltage cathode material, have been shown to deliver a 25 percent improvement in gravimetric energy density, and a 61 percent improvement in volumetric energy density in the electrode, compared with existing state-of-the-art battery materials with comparable attributes. Thus far, batteries made with EM1 and CM1 have expected power and safety performance comparable to lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4), while also handling more than 100 charge/discharge cycles in full-cell testing.

“This is a breakthrough discovery by our development team, which can lead to batteries capable of storing much more energy than current materials allow,” said Wildcat CEO Mark Gresser. “When batteries hold more energy, it creates new options for design engineers - electric cars can go farther, tablets, laptops and smartphones can be smaller with no loss of runtime, soldier packs can be lighter, and implanted medical devices can last longer before the need for replacement surgery. And while our initial tests have shown a 61 percent improvement in energy density, this is just the beginning – because the EM1 electrolyte is stable at 5-volt operation, it opens the door to development of a new world of cathode materials that should bring even greater advances.”

Gresser added that the new materials are fully compatible with industry-standard anode materials.

The EM1 electrolyte’s high-voltage capability is of special interest for the automotive sector, where cell development has been restricted by the inability of existing electrolyte formulas to cycle at high voltages. Current EV systems based on low voltage cells require complex and expensive pack designs and battery management systems. EM1 enables high voltage systems which are expected to reduce required cell quantities 30-40% vs. competing materials like LFP and NMC. Fewer cells and simpler pack designs translate into substantially lower costs for auto makers.

The materials were developed using Wildcat’s proprietary high-throughput synthesis and screening platforms, which enable rapid discovery and development of advanced materials. For the CM1 cathode material alone, Wildcat’s R&D team synthesized and evaluated more than 3000 materials in just eight months; this research may have taken years using conventional methods.

Wildcat is actively seeking licensees and partners for further development and commercialization of EM1 and CM1 and successor materials. Sample quantities of up to 1 kilogram will be available as of April, 2011.

About Wildcat Discovery Technologies

Wildcat Discovery Technologies is engaged in the discovery and development of specialty materials for clean tech energy applications; including materials for batteries, gas separation, catalysis and advanced structural materials. Wildcat has developed proprietary high throughput synthesis and testing workflows for the rapid exploration of new inorganic materials. This technology enables Wildcat scientists to synthesize and evaluate thousands of materials in the time it takes most labs to evaluate only a handful.

Also army video
http://www.dvidshub.net/video/134777/ar ... 7CRCZV5mK0
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Mon May 14, 2012 1:12 am

flathill wrote:Thus far, batteries made with EM1 and CM1 have expected power and safety performance comparable to lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4), while also handling more than 100 charge/discharge cycles in full-cell testing.


Obviously, this is no breakthrough at a 100 cycles until we get to cycles in the 2,500+ range. Maybe they've gone beyond that, but it would seem a good idea to publish that too.
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby liveforphysics » Mon May 14, 2012 2:30 am

Lots of folks have been working on this for the last 10 years. And they have doubled energy density and cut cost by huge amounts since 2000. I think at the current rate of improvement and cost reduction, we will see another doubling of energy density and cost cut by half before 2020.

We have a big advantage right now, for the first time, real money is being dumped into battery technology. Nissan, Toyota, Honda, etc are funding battery development programs.

Many chemistries, including Mg++ chemistries, sulfur or silicon anodes, higher voltage chemistry (it's possible to have 5.5v nominal potential) are being played with in labs around the world. Most all of them are missing some single critical piece of the puzzle that keeps them from working (often the electrolyte, or getting a stable structure that enables scalable manufacturing.) If somebody solves the missing puzzle piece, battery tech could double almost overnight.

As far as which one or when, I've got no clue. :-)
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Mon May 14, 2012 4:11 am

Yes, good find StudEbiker. :D Looks like 7-10 year off tech to me, but it looks very promising too. Already has Venture Capital in it. MIT connections. Perfect for Wall Street greed. :lol:

StudEbiker wrote:I saw this recently. It certainly looks interesting if it ever gets into production. The idea of filling a battery like you fill a gas tank would obviously move electric transport ahead by leaps and bounds.

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/flow ... -0606.html


The new semi-solid flow batteries pioneered by Chiang and colleagues overcome this limitation, providing a 10-fold improvement in energy density over present liquid flow-batteries, and lower-cost manufacturing than conventional lithium-ion batteries. Because the material has such a high energy density, it does not need to be pumped rapidly to deliver its power. “It kind of oozes,” Chiang says. Because the suspensions look and flow like black goo and could end up used in place of petroleum for transportation, Carter says, “We call it ‘Cambridge crude.’”

The key insight by Chiang’s team was that it would be possible to combine the basic structure of aqueous-flow batteries with the proven chemistry of lithium-ion batteries by reducing the batteries’ solid materials to tiny particles that could be carried in a liquid suspension — similar to the way quicksand can flow like a liquid even though it consists mostly of solid particles. “We’re using two proven technologies, and putting them together,” Carter says
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Mon May 14, 2012 4:28 am

liveforphysics wrote:I think at the current rate of improvement and cost reduction, we will see another doubling of energy density and cost cut by half before 2020.


This makes me feel much more confident that we're getting somewhere with EV tech. Only about 8 more years for doubling energy density & cutting costs by half. That's very good news, imo. :twisted:

Now, I believe companies like ZERO have a great shot as long as they can hold-on for 8 more years to get there. I was really worried about slow growth & then flat-lining, but, now, I think it's slow to maybe moderate growth for the next 5 years, and then it could really start to accelerate upwards just as soon as batteries can cross that price point & threshold of much higher energy density. Whoot. :mrgreen:

Guys, the next Microsoft/Google will someday soon be a battery company. Want to be a millionaire? :?: Find that company & invest. :idea:
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby dogman » Mon May 14, 2012 5:47 am

Seems to me that the real problem is more related to cost per wh x cycle life than just energy density. Nobody wants to pay 10 thou for a battery for a car. Get a bike battery down to $200 retail and it will be a game changer for all classes of EV's. I keep hoping golf carts will finally adopt lifepo4, and drive the cost down with production numbers. Lotta freaking golf carts in the usa.
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby Lock » Mon May 14, 2012 7:01 am

...search out info on the net...


Why bother, when ya can just search ES? :)

Try "university +battery"

Ya get stuff like:
University spinoff to develop lithium ion batteries (from 2008)
http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=6646

New 10x Lithium-ion battery (Nov, 2011)
http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=33834

My fav...
Prieto Battery... 1000x more powerful, 10x longer, cheaper (December, 2009)
http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=14975

Go Doctor Amy Go!

As noted previously any of these tech insights will probably take a decade to hit the streets...

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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby texaspyro » Mon May 14, 2012 8:46 am

I have it on very good authority (the voices in my head) that the LGM's are going to release their new thorium plasma battery on 1 Apr 2013 :roll:
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Mon May 14, 2012 9:23 am

Lock wrote:
My fav...
Prieto Battery... 1000x more powerful, 10x longer, cheaper (December, 2009)
http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=14975

Go Doctor Amy Go!


This one is total hype & BS. She's just a young Assistant Professor in 2012 starting out in her field. Media hyperventilating three years ago, and they've got nothing to show for it today on her bio. The only research groups that are likely to make the real breakthroughs will have been researching this with big money for decades already. To think the Assistant Professor is going solve our battery needs is a joke. No real funding or enough brain power to make a dent, IMO.

The other sad truth about Wall Street is it's geared for places like MIT, Harvard, Stanford, etc. That's where the real seed money goes and continues to get funding long-term to the point of going public as an IPO. That's the way the system works. It's rigged that way. Not fair, but that's the way it is.
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby pdf » Mon May 14, 2012 9:34 am

deVries wrote:
This one is total hype & BS. She's just a young Assistant Professor in 2012 starting out in her field. Media hyperventilating three years ago, and they've got nothing to show for it today on her bio. The only research groups that are likely to make the real breakthroughs will have been researching this with big money for decades already. To think the Assistant Professor is going solve our battery needs is a joke. No real funding or enough brain power to make a dent, IMO.


True, dat.
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby migueralliart » Mon May 14, 2012 9:59 am

If only we could get the goblins(inventors) of A123 to build us another masterpiece but this time with more power density but keeping the same discharge rate. That would be awesome.
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby smudger1956 » Mon May 14, 2012 10:01 am

My take..With conspiracy head on...I think we will be drip fed battery tech advancements till the announcement of low worldwide oil reserves.
Buy shares in rare earth mining........ :lol:
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby flathill » Mon May 14, 2012 10:29 am

deVries wrote:
flathill wrote:Thus far, batteries made with EM1 and CM1 have expected power and safety performance comparable to lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4), while also handling more than 100 charge/discharge cycles in full-cell testing.


Obviously, this is no breakthrough at a 100 cycles until we get to cycles in the 2,500+ range. Maybe they've gone beyond that, but it would seem a good idea to publish that too.


Obviously you lack critical reading skills and simply skim read to find the negative
http://www.wildcatdiscovery.com/images/wildcat em1 data sheet - feb 2012.pdf
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Mon May 14, 2012 3:16 pm

dogman wrote:Seems to me that the real problem is more related to cost per wh x cycle life than just energy density. Nobody wants to pay 10 thou for a battery for a car. Get a bike battery down to $200 retail and it will be a game changer for all classes of EV's. I keep hoping golf carts will finally adopt lifepo4, and drive the cost down with production numbers. Lotta freaking golf carts in the usa.


Yes, this is what I'm suggesting too in my OP. When will energy density "double" for no more than what we pay now, which is another way of saying when will the price be cut in half by what it is today. But, that is only half the problem to get anywhere, literally. :P We must have the doubling of energy density for the same weight/volume we have today too.

Range is far too limited *and* expensive. The EV industry will crash and burn with today's technology. It's nowhere near where it needs to be in order to succeed long-term. As Luke suggests, we now have big players starting to get into the game, so there is far more R&D funding being made available. But, there is a danger with this strategy too. A123 is a kind of "incubator business" that has gotten a lot of funding from "fossil fuel" based automotive companies such as GM, etc. Notice how expensive and exclusive these batteries are for our EV projects IF we can even get the batteries. A lot of exclusive "battery capture" is going on to keep the technology exclusively to themselves too. This is not necessarily good for the consumer ultimately as far as driving prices down rapidly or getting to end users outside exclusive supply "clamps".

If the Tesla EV car maker fails, then this new technology may not pressure our Big 3 automakers to innovate enough. It could kill EV tech all over again. EV battery companies need to be totally independent, not dependent upon, car maker investments and exclusive market capture.
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Mon May 14, 2012 3:32 pm

flathill wrote:
deVries wrote:
flathill wrote:Thus far, batteries made with EM1 and CM1 have expected power and safety performance comparable to lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4), while also handling more than 100 charge/discharge cycles in full-cell testing.


Obviously, this is no breakthrough at a 100 cycles until we get to cycles in the 2,500+ range. Maybe they've gone beyond that, but it would seem a good idea to publish that too.


Obviously you lack critical reading skills and simply skim read to find the negative
http://www.wildcatdiscovery.com/images/wildcat em1 data sheet - feb 2012.pdf


This is disingenuous to suggest later that I lack critical reading skills by then providing new information afterwards a (non-working) link to a data sheet that was *not* in your previous post that I quoted from. I could only comment on what you posted & provided before, which I quoted from authentically with reasoned critique. Your characterization that I "lack critical reading skills and simply skim read to find the negative" is simply false & misleading. :idea:
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby dogman » Mon May 14, 2012 4:36 pm

I still think density itself is not really such a big problem. We can design a car to fit a large battery if we choose to, as Tesla did. But the problems remain of how to afford a 100 mile range at 75 mph.

What we really need is to get out of the small A123 factory and into the really huge one. Not that I think lifepo4 is the final answer. We just need much cheaper stuff at a true 5c rate, that lasts 5000 cycles at a 90% dod. Give me that cheap, and I'll find the room for it even if it takes a trailer. You'd have a battery that you wanted in a trailer, because it would oulast 5-6 EV's. :mrgreen:
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Mon May 14, 2012 4:45 pm

Here is a good link that works from "flathill"... Wildcat

I looked at that datasheet, and I'm certainly *not* impressed with the data provided. Why? :?:

Their four listed starting baselines for Cycle Life are 20 cycles, 50 cycles, 160 cycles, and 200 cycles. Are these four baselines reasonable to start with? :?:

I say, hell no! :P :lol:

Let's have starting baselines with 1,000, 2,000, and 3,000 cycles. AND, then, let's see what their additive chemicals do to extend those baseline cycles! Yeah, now, THAT would be some real useful data that maybe could be taken to the bank.

You bet I'm skeptical of Wildcat Discovery. WTF. Show me the data! :shock: :idea:
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Re: Attn Experts: When Will Battery Capacity Double ?

Postby deVries » Mon May 14, 2012 5:06 pm

dogman wrote:I still think density itself is not really such a big problem. We can design a car to fit a large battery if we choose to, as Tesla did. But the problems remain of how to afford a 100 mile range at 75 mph.


I beg to completely disagree with your opinion. Besides, this thread topic is "When Will Battery Capacity Double". :P

But, seriously, a 9kWh battery will only get a 350-lb motorcycle down the road @ 75mph in perfectly flat no headwind conditions, i.e. *not* real world, for about 55 minutes, because it will have 5 minutes more to exit for a recharge "gas station" before running out of electrons. Sorry, this is a perfect reason WHY energy density needs to double, triple, and quadruple, while the price remains the same. That is a 50% price drop with a double in energy density, btw. :D

If you think the EV industry is going to grow leaps & bounds with current tech at half the price, then I think you're dreaming & sadly mistaken too. That means only slow growth AND a flat-line no growth, because range is nowhere near good enough for the weight as it is now. :? :oops:

Maybe you will joke and say you'll drive a trailer full of half-price batteries, but 99% of everyone else will *not* do that kind of joking around. I do love that image of you doing that though. :lol:

dogman wrote:Give me that cheap, and I'll find the room for it even if it takes a trailer. You'd have a battery that you wanted in a trailer, because it would oulast 5-6 EV's.


We just need much cheaper stuff at a true 5c rate, that lasts 5000 cycles at a 90% dod. Give me that cheap...

That is not the current spec for A123, so you've already upped the ante beyond your half-price battery too. You are asking for higher energy density now, aren't you. :idea: :twisted:
Last edited by deVries on Mon May 14, 2012 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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