converting from gas to electric economy

[whatever]

Just some thoughts I've had recently.
Seems the goal now is conversion from gas ( petrol ) based transport to electric, and it looks like this might actually occur, maybe in
the next 20 to 30 years.
Quite remarkable really that we are living in the beginnings of a transition period.
There are some issues to think about though:
the solution looks like it will be replacement of petrol cars/trucks with new electric models. There doesn't seem to be any alternative
option such as conversion of existing vehicles.
If that is the case then most likely the majority of cars/trucks will be scraped and recycled. That in itself does seem like quite a waste.
The amount of time, energy and human effort to create all those vehicles is in a way wasted, not too mention all the energy that went into producing them.
Of course there is hydrogen and possibly water based alternatives, but they dont really have a chance against electric/batteries.
I'm all for conversion to electric economy, but there will be a cost, namely scraping 100 years of ice based economy and everything
that went into building that.

[efMX Trials Electric Freeride]

Chevy will start selling EV retrofit kits in 2021 :
https://www.engadget.com/chevy-ecrate-2 ... 02305.html

[www.recumbents.com]

Any car (other than Tesla Model S aluminum bodied car) that is driven in the rust belt will be undriveable due to rust in 20 years. I have a 1998 Maxima. Great car, runs and drives well but is losing the battle to rust. I have replaced the front fenders and the radiator mount frame parts and have fixed the rocker panel and rear fender rust 3 times now. Soon too much of the subframe will be eaten away and it will be time for the scrapyard. I'd love to add some sort of serpentine belt driven electric motor, or a rear hub motor but it it worth it? It's sad but probably not.

The civilized world went through the same thing 100 years ago when horse drawn vehicles lost out to ICE.

[Hillhater]

.......
Seems the goal now is conversion from gas ( petrol ) based transport to electric, and it looks like this might actually occur, maybe in
the next 20 to 30 years.
..........
There are some issues to think about though:

Another minor issue could be where/how to supply the power to charge this new EV revolution ?
Even just considering California, with its 15+ million cars, ..
If they are all EVs and need a daily “top up” of say 20 kWh on average, that is a daily demand of 300 GWh , or +50%,..above anything currently catered for .
And just hope that not too many of them plug in at the same time !
Many will be recharging overnight when solar wont be available, so unless those EV owners also invest in a large home battery, any extra grid load will be from ???? Wind ?, Gas ?, Hydro ? ?? TBA ??
At the same time..presumeably, neighbouring states will be going through a similar change, such that all the surplus power currently imported by Ca , may not be as available as it currently is !
AND, much of the current fleet of solar, wind, Nuclear, etc generation plants will have passed their economic working life, so a massive power generation replacement and “build out” expansion program will be needed to keep up with these changes.

[Hillhater]

Double post ??

[JackFlorey]

Another minor issue could be where/how to supply the power to charge this new EV revolution ?

Simple. Solar.

Many will be recharging overnight when solar wont be available. . . .

. . . at which time the CA grid has 12 extra gigawatts available without straining. Lower demand at night. Which means you can support 8.5 million cars all charging at night at an average of 1.4 kilowatts (level 1 charger.) That means we could charge more than half the cars in California overnight even if every single person switched to an EV.

But as time goes on more and more people will charge during the day, because power will be cheaper then, especially in the AM when power demand is low and solar production is high.

AND, much of the current fleet of solar, wind, Nuclear, etc generation plants will have passed their economic working life, so a massive power generation replacement and “build out” expansion program will be needed to keep up with these changes.

They can if they want. But solar degradation rates are around .5% a year - so in 50 years you'll still be putting out 75% of their rated power. If the utility has extra money and they want to upgrade, great. If not, also no worries. Just add a new plant and keep the old one still producing at 75%.

[LeftieBiker]

"Scrapping" folks, not "scraping", which is what you do to a frosted windshield. This site has the highest number of repeat typos I've ever seen. (Although to be fair, I don't do Facebook or Twitter.) Don't you folks have spell check?

The biggest problem with conversions, assuming that kits become available, is that ICE cars are not designed with large battery storage areas. Until a 200 mile battery pack will fit into the same space formerly occupied by a gas tank, this will be a problem

[Hillhater]

Another minor issue could be where/how to supply the power to charge this new EV revolution ?

Simple. Solar.

Many will be recharging overnight when solar wont be available. . . .

. . . at which time the CA grid has 12 extra gigawatts available without straining. Lower demand at night. ......
.......

But Jack , that 12 GW “surplus” , is ALL GAS ! ...( infact 40+GW of it !)....Which you greenies keep saying you will be out of by next week !.. let alone in 20-30 years time.
And currently, gas is Ca’s biggest generating supply @ 46% with Nuclear adding another 9%
..whilst Solar and wind only provide <20% of power generated
..( infact Ca imports more power each year (70+ MILLION GWh) ,..than it generates from Solar and wind !
So when they shut down the Gas and Nuke plants, and the other states start doing similar,... what will you be using in Ca ??
Like i said.......there will have to be a BIG build out (and replacement !), plan
Oh yes, and i guess you know how reliable Hydro is ? Especially in a “Dryy” year ...so not much help there either.

[ZeroEm]

by whatever » Nov 02 2020 10:04am

Just some thoughts I've had recently.
Seems the goal now is conversion from gas ( petrol ) based transport to electric, and it looks like this might actually occur, maybe in
the next 20 to 30 years.

It has been going on from the 70's here in the US. Started with the gasoline lines. Then they started building EV's and the big oil put their foot down in the 90's and started crushing them. Then started the disinformation about Hydrogen, which is a EV's with a power source. So it's been closer to 50 yrs.

Quite remarkable really that we are living in the beginnings of a transition period.
There are some issues to think about though:
the solution looks like it will be replacement of petrol cars/trucks with new electric models. There doesn't seem to be any alternative
option such as conversion of existing vehicles.
If that is the case then most likely the majority of cars/trucks will be scraped and recycled. That in itself does seem like quite a waste.

Here in the USA cars are made to last 10 yrs then the warranty runs out and they quit making factory parts. When a car is 20 yrs old you can register it as an Antique. The value of a 20 yr old ICE is not much and most need a major restore. It's not as much a waste as you think. 10 yr sales cut over, then at 20 yrs restriction on old ICE then at 30 yr only whatever laws that enable the limited ICE machines that will keep running. The recycle part is already in place and will stay to deal with the EV's. Hybrids will play a important part just need to cut down the emissions in a big way.

The amount of time, energy and human effort to create all those vehicles is in a way wasted, not too mention all the energy that went into producing them.
Of course there is hydrogen and possibly water based alternatives, but they dont really have a chance against electric/batteries.
I'm all for conversion to electric economy, but there will be a cost, namely scraping 100 years of ice based economy and everything
that went into building that.

Cut back on the Hydrocarbons and get rid of the suppression on the alternative energy. Might surprise you!

[markz]

I'd buy a vehicle with awesome mpg then an electric. Planning a trip around charging stations, limiting travel is not good.

[ZeroEm]

Don't limit travel never get you one of them E-bikes they can travel far with out polluting.

[JackFlorey]

But Jack , that 12 GW “surplus” , is ALL GAS ! ...( infact 40+GW of it !)....Which you greenies keep saying you will be out of by next week !

You are so full of it! Post one time anyone has said we will be out of gas next week. Or even next month. Just one.

what will you be using in Ca ??

Solar, like I explained. EV's aren't like home A/C's or ovens. They don't only take power when people get home at 5pm and turn them on. EV's take power whenever you tell them to. Sunny day, power is cheap? Charge them by plugging them in when you get to work. Cloudy and windy at night? Then you plug them in when you get home. A day where it's cloudy and still? Well, you could still plug them in and pay more $$, of course, but most people will be smart enough to wait a day or so until it's sunny (or windy) again and charge then. People like saving $$.

[ZeroEm]

Yes, from Solar any more questions?

[ZeroEm]

we have the opportunity to build a more resilient, sustainable economy – one that will put the United States on an irreversible path to achieve net-zero emissions, economy-wide, by no later than 2050. Joe Biden will seize that opportunity and, in the process, create millions of good-paying jobs that provide workers with the choice to join a union and bargain collectively with their employers.

[Hillhater]

But Jack , that 12 GW “surplus” , is ALL GAS ! ...( infact 40+GW of it !)....Which you greenies keep saying you will be out of by next week !

You are so full of it! Post one time anyone has said we will be out of gas next week. Or even next month. Just one.

. .. Aww ! Cum’on Jack,.. where is all your Green commitment ?
If you are going to do it,.. you better get going !.... you dont have too long !
Most “Alarmists” are saying its too late !
And you do have a deadline ....

Chapter 312 of 2018 (SB 100, de León) establishes a state policy of 100 percent zero carbon electricity by 2045....

..... EV's take power whenever you tell them to. Sunny day, power is cheap? Charge them by plugging them in when you get to work. Cloudy and windy at night? Then you plug them in when you get home. A day where it's cloudy and still? Well, you could still plug them in .....

It doesnt matter when, where, or how , you plug them in, you still have to generate the electricity to do it..
A few facts,..for those that do not comprehend the scale of the problem and how silly the “ use Solar” comment is..
Ca currently uses approx 300,000 GWh each year.
Of that total, Utility Solar contributes 27,000 GWh..(<10%)
Wind,..14,000 GWh ..(<5%)
Hydro ..22,000 GWh ... (<8%)
RT, domestic Solar...13,500 GWh ..(4.5%)
The rest is a mix of Fossil (Gas,40+%), Nuclear (9%) , and imported power....70,000+ GWh...( +_ 25%)
Now, assuming the total consumption doesnt change dramatically... (increase more likely ?), and those other states also get stretched to convert to reducing emissions and hence wont have surplus power to prop up california,..
Then Ca will have to replace 75% (220,000 GWh), of your generation capacity with “Clean” sources , in the coming 25 years..
...and that is without the additional 100,000+ GWh for those EVs to charge !
So, in total , about 320,000 GWH of NEW clean, capacity, needed ..or say 12,500 GWh added every year for the forseeable future !
.. that is “Generated” power,..not “installed” power !...so even with a CF of 30%.. means approx 5 GW of Wind /Solar/?? installed every year !
Aaaannnndd... that still does not give a reliable continuous supply..totally weather dependent !
Aaaaaannnndd...unless you can eliminate those 50+GW evening peaks, you will need a LOT of wind Turbines (and wind !) ...or an impossibly large battery !

[JackFlorey]

. .. Aww ! Cum’on Jack,.. where is all your Green commitment ?
If you are going to do it,.. you better get going !.... you dont have too long !
Most “Alarmists” are saying its too late !

Ah, so all you have is a strawman. I figured it was something like that.

It doesnt matter when, where, or how , you plug them in, you still have to generate the electricity to do it..

Yes, you do. And in California that's straightforward; we have enough sun to reliably charge EV's year round.

...and that is without the additional 100,000+ GWh for those EVs to charge !

Let's see:
To replace every single car in CA with an EV would add 150GWhr load per day. So for a statewide average of 5 sun hours a day, that's 30GW of solar. That's 60 Topaz plants, or 1800 large parking lots covered with solar.

For comparison there are 16,700 parking lots - in Southern California alone.

Aaaannnndd... that still does not give a reliable continuous supply..totally weather dependent !

Doesn't matter. With EV's you charge them when power's available.

Aaaaaannnndd...unless you can eliminate those 50+GW evening peaks, you will need a LOT of wind Turbines (and wind !) ...or an impossibly large battery !

Not impossible at all. If you replace every car in CA with an EV you have a 900 GIGAWATT-HOUR rolling battery.

[Hillhater]

Ah, so all you have is a strawman. I figured it was something like that...

Strawman ? No Jack, i dont have anything......but Ca has that Chapter 312, which says you have got to be at zero emissions in 25 years time.
In major infrastructure terms,...that IS tomorrow !

....in California that's straightforward; we have enough sun to reliably charge EV's year round.....
Let's see:
To replace every single car in CA with an EV would add 150GWhr load per day. So for a statewide average of 5 sun hours a day, that's 30GW of solar. That's 60 Topaz plants, or 1800 large parking lots covered with solar.
For comparison there are 16,700 parking lots - in Southern California alone....

Sure, you have enough sun, but you do not have the solar plants yet.
Even using your low ball 150GWh/day, 60 Topaz plants,..etc,.. it still means you have to build 2-3 Topaz sized plants every year...just to power the EVs !
But You seem to be ignoring the replacement that 600+ GWh/day from Gas, Nuclear, and imported power that you wont have access to in 25 yrs time

Aaaannnndd... that still does not give a reliable continuous supply..totally weather dependent !

Doesn't matter. With EV's you charge them when power's available.

[/quote]
The comment was directed at Ca’s total power supply generally,..not just EVs !
Or are you willing to only use the A/C, lights, TV etc etc..”when power is available” ?
Some drivers may want to charge when they NEED to.
And how does it work when you are half way down the freeway on a still night and need a recharge ??

[ZeroEm]

I still want to keep my Natural Gas for heating my home!

[JackFlorey]

Ah, so all you have is a strawman. I figured it was something like that...

Strawman ? No Jack, i dont have anything......

Exactly! Thank you.

Sure, you have enough sun, but you do not have the solar plants yet.

Nor do we have 100% EV's yet. So we don't need them yet.

All we have to do is build at the rate we are getting new EV's.

The comment was directed at Ca’s total power supply generally,..not just EVs !

Ah - moving the goalposts again! I'll wait a few posts until you are done moving them, then see what your new claims are.

And how does it work when you are half way down the freeway on a still night and need a recharge ??

How does it work when you are halfway down the freeway and need gas, but you don't have enough gas to get to the nearest gas station?

[ZeroEm]

Alert, Alert when you pump gas it takes electricity. Why not just skip the gas pumping and put the Electricity in the car? So if we close down all the Gas Stations how much electricity will we save?

[Hillhater]

Ah, so all you have is a strawman. I figured it was something like that...

Strawman ? No Jack, i dont have anything......

Exactly! Thank you...

But, Jack,.. I dont NEED anything whilst you have Chapter 312,....
..... And the GND which may speed things up !

..All we have to do is build at the rate we are getting new EV's...

Still Ignoring the Elephant in the room ... the shutting down of Utility Gas + Nuclear etc !
..and the fact that Ca is already short of “Clean” generation capacity

The comment was directed at Ca’s total power supply generally,..not just EVs !

Ah - moving the goalposts again! I'll wait a few posts until you are done moving them, then see what your new claims are.

No jack, look at the thread title,..and as i said in ALL my previous posts, EV’s are only a small part of the issue,..

[JackFlorey]

But, Jack,.. I dont NEED anything . . . .

And you've got absolutely nothing - so that works for you.

Still Ignoring the Elephant in the room ... the shutting down of Utility Gas + Nuclear etc !

I am not planning on "shutting down gas and nuclear." That's your straw elephant.

No jack, look at the thread title,..and as i said in ALL my previous posts, EV’s are only a small part of the issue,..

Yep. But then you have to read more than the headline. Here's what the thread is about:

"goal now is conversion from gas ( petrol ) based transport to electric"

Not "shutting down gas and nuclear." Not the GND. Not AOC. Not anything else you dream up, either. Those are your obsessions, not mine.

[Hillhater]

I am not planning on "shutting down gas and nuclear." That's your straw elephant.

You may not be planning it, but the State Legislature is !.. its not straw, but it certainly is an Elephant about to drop its load on you.

Not "shutting down gas and nuclear." Not the GND. Not AOC. Not anything else you dream up, either. Those are your obsessions, not mine.

You dont seem to get it ... the gas/EV change is only a part of the plan to go “Zero” emisssions.
You can keep avoiding the issue jack, but that Elephant is marching your way faster than those EV’s

[JackFlorey]

You may not be planning it, but the State Legislature is !

Sure they are. Just like the ZEV mandate that said we had to have 10% EV's by 1996.

its not straw, but it certainly is an Elephant about to drop its load on you.

Oh, I can see how in your imagination that's true.

You dont seem to get it ... the gas/EV change is only a part of the plan to go “Zero” emisssions.

Your hatred of renewable energy tends to blind you to what threads are about; you see evil GNDs behind every sentence. Sad!

[Hillhater]

Your hatred of renewable energy tends to blind you to what threads are about; you see evil GNDs behind every sentence. Sad!

Or,.. maybe I see the reality of what is planned. Vs what is possible .?