by ezoo » Feb 06 2021 5:29pm I hear about this everywhere I go to shop for bicycle parts:

ezoo

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I hear about this everywhere I go to shop for bicycle parts:

"All the production in CHINA is on hold now all the bikes are out of stock everywhere...because they are protesting not working."

I noticed that a lot of bike parts sold out until further notice or has to be prepaid and reserved for future shipment day. What's REALLY going on?
 
A few large ebike companies are having a real hard time getting rims and other parts right now. Delivery expectations are getting pushed out 6-12 months.

My LBS hasn't been building up bikes because they can't get them to sell them.

I'm wondering what the hell is going on in Asia as a whole.
 
My buddy runs a large non profit bike charity and was seeing an absolute explosion in demand for bikes right when the lockdowns started. It was spring and people were stuck entertaining their families so they all bought bikes. Over the last year this has turned into a massive parts shortage and inflation of prices in the used market do to increased demand.

Based on this view from inside the industry I could totally believe its all being driven by an increase in demand coupled with one of the most unstable production and distribution environments in a lifetime. Is a global industry and countries and regions are all at different stages of the pandemic response so nothing is certain anywhere.

It stands to reason that in about a year when all these new bike owners realize they still don't bike I think we are going to see an abundance of barely used parts flooding the used market. So that's kinda cool.
 
ezoo said:
I hear about this everywhere I go to shop for bicycle parts:

"All the production in CHINA is on hold now all the bikes are out of stock everywhere...because they are protesting not working."

I noticed that a lot of bike parts sold out until further notice or has to be prepaid and reserved for future shipment day. What's REALLY going on?

The supply chain has been busted for a year. By the time we had lockdowns and a huge spike in the demand for bikes, China had been dealing with factory closures and shipping delays for months.

On this end, some folks couldn't go to the gym anymore, so they went looking for a bike. Others didn't want to share public transportation anymore, so they went looking for a bike. Many were just bored from sitting around at home. So demand outstripped even a normal supply, but the supply wasn't normal.

In this case, I think widespread shortages probably led to manufacturers prioritizing items that were most profitable rather than most needed. If everybody is asking for everything, it makes sense to focus on the things that work out best for your own business.

Protests in Hong Kong may have caused delays in shipping bikes and parts through nearby ports, but HK is not a bike manufacturing hub. I don't know of widespread protests elsewhere in China.
On the other hand, I'm sure that Chinese quarantines, stay at home orders, and social distancing have negatively affected production capacity in bicycle factories, just like they have affected manufacturers here in the USA.
 
I've been told by many LBSes in my week long quest to get a rear rockshox suspension piece that there's lots of issues with shipping, not so much with production. This seems to be happening on an international level too.

The business that navigates these disruptions best are the ones that will survive this huge disruption. Winners and losers are being made in the market right now. It's crazy af.
 
...an update :

World Wide Shortage of Bikes & Cycling Gear

In case you haven’t heard, there is a massive world wide shortage of bikes, parts and gear. An already strained supply chain from big tariff increases is now stretched beyond its capabilities. “Bikes are the new toilet paper”. Global demand has grown to unheard-of levels and everyone from manufacturers to retailers are scrambling to keep pace.

SHIPS STUCK WAITING TO ENTER PORT

Container ships wait to enter port, delaying deliveries.
What happened? Covid caused factories to close which stopped the production of bikes. Leaving only the bikes in everyone’s inventory to supply the growing demand. It didn’t take long for product to run out with this skyrocketing demand as people began venturing outside again. Everyone needed exercise and relief from the stress of being cooped up by the pandemic. Families started riding bikes together and a whole new slice of the population got exposed to the joy of cycling.

Now most all of the factories are back up and cranking out bikes but many challenges remain:

Lead times for manufacturing a bike is 6-9 months due to all of the different vendors involved in making a single bike
The manufacturing capacity of the world’s factories was barely keeping pace with demand before Covid.
Large tariff increases remain
Demand during Covid has more than tripled
Some factories continue to open and close multiple times due to recurring outbreaks
There is a similar shortage in many other industries that add extra hurdles to making and delivering bikes
Global shortage of skilled workers (many people are still away from work due to covid restrictions)
Global shortage of raw materials and large price increases (aluminum, carbon and steel)
Global shortage of shipping containers
Global shortage of ships to carry over product from overseas factories
Shortage of port space for ships to unload (many ships are anchored off the coast waiting for their turn to dock and unload)
Shortage of dock workers to unload containers
Local shortage of trucks to deliver containers to the warehouse
Spikes in shipping and air freight charges (up to $350 per bike, Ouch!)
Local restrictions on how many workers can be the the offices and warehouse at any one time

What’s next? These insanely challenging conditions will not go away in the short term. They are likely to grow based on the ever increasing demand. We anticipate these conditions to last throughout most of 2021. Prices will increase for the manufacturer, distributor, retailer and consumer. The overall USA market will continue to thrive with sport and recreation cycling at all-time highs.

Alex Oleata
 
I wonder how many companies are thinking about how big of a mistake outsourcing everything to China was..
 
Another factor ; international shipments were added to the cargo bays of international passenger flights on an as available basis. Those flights drastically diminished.
 
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Due to the lack of parts and “manual” bikes generally,.. My lbs believes the big name manufacturers have diverted available resources To the production of high value Ebike brands ,...which are seeing a massive increase in sales and are more readily available......if you have $8-12k spare !
 
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