EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDrops

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EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDrops

Post by MitchJi » Feb 23 2014 9:50pm

Hi,

http://evobsession.com/experience-many- ... -industry/
The Experience So Many Will Go Through… That Will Disrupt The Auto Industry

From an excellent GMO Quarterly Letter written by Jeremy Grantham regarding the Tesla Model S.
http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/GMO_Q ... 4Q2013.pdf

I recently took a drive in a GMO colleague’s Tesla from New York to Boston. Now, I am about as far from a car freak as you will easily find. I just turned in a 12-year-old Volvo that unfortunately had been sideswiped, for otherwise it was good for years more. But I have to say that my recent Tesla journey was my #1 car experience ever. Three years ago I test drove a Tesla in Boston and it was a tinny, rattly, super-expensive toy. Its battery alone cost $50,000! Last month, its chief engineers suggested its cost today is $22,000. In three years they and other experts are confident that the battery will be less than $15,000 and probably its weight will have fallen also. The Tesla feels like the $75,000 vehicle it is and not simply adjusting for the fact that it is electric, but on its own merit. Many of you will know that this vehicle has a range of 150 to 270 miles depending on battery size and that it received two prestigious car of the year awards, along with being given the highest crash ratings of any vehicle ever! Consumer Reports gave it the co-equal highest ratings in the magazine’s 77 years! Even more importantly for me, there was this series of what I can only describe as my first iPad moment: “Wow, that’s cool!” And cool it was as the extreme acceleration pushed me back into the passenger seat for the first time in my life, aided, it must be said, by an exuberant new owner at the wheel. We had enough charge to reach Boston easily, but out of curiosity and in need of a coffee break, we stopped to charge the battery at the one and only charging station halfway home. Twenty-five minutes later, we were back on the road, fully charged up. And for free! (Full disclosure: I regrettably have owned no shares in Tesla.)

Okay, “Enough!” you say. But at $10,000 to $15,000 per battery in three years plus some economies of scale, there will probably be a $40,000 vehicle that even die-hard cheapskates like me will have to buy. (Our stop-gap Jetta diesel, which gets an honest 41 miles to the gallon, was $24,000.) One can easily see that in 10 years there could be a new world order in cars…. The idea of “peak oil demand” as opposed to peak oil supply has gone, in my opinion, from being a joke to an idea worth beginning to think about in a single year. Some changes seem to be always around the corner and then at long last they move faster than you expected and you are caught flat-footed.

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Tesla is in a league of its own. As Grantham notes, the Model S in 2012 and 2013 got a Consumer Reports score of 99/100, the best rating the magazine has ever given. That was a full 4 points above 2013′s runner-up. The car is not cheap, but it is the best car on the market. Furthermore, it’s only the second model Tesla has developed, and the first that it has fully designed to take advantage of its electric power source. Tesla is moving down the ladder from super expensive to affordable. It’s not going to make big compromises on quality as it moves down—the downward steps are essentially based on the falling prices of batteries… as well as improvements in Tesla’s manufacturing skills and economies of scale.

However, in many respects, Tesla’s secret sauce is available to all the other auto companies out there. An electric car is simply a much better drive, a much more efficient drive, and also a more convenient car... as Tesla and electric cars as a whole make it into other market segments, more and more customers will have their “iPad moment” and jump into the electric car era. Furthermore, other auto companies can also create excellent electric cars, if they really try to. GM put a fair amount of effort into the Chevy Volt and also had amazing results in terms of customer satisfaction and product reviews. Nissan aimed for a lower segment of the market right off the bat, sacrificing range for a lower price in order to capture those early adopters who are ready for the electric thrill but don’t have the money for a Model S. The Nissan Leaf is the best-selling electric car in the world and recently passed 100,000 sales—much faster than the highly popular Toyota Prius passed that marker when it was getting started (and with good right, because not only is the Leaf super efficient—much more efficient than the Prius—it’s also a ton of fun to drive). As batteries improve and come down in price, more segments of the market will open up, the Leaf will come with greater range, Tesla will have a more affordable product on the market, and more and more people will come to think, “How did I ever put up with driving a gasmobile?” It’s not Tesla vs everyone, but Tesla + everyone. It’s just a matter of time.

“Disruptive technologies” get that name for a reason. When a superior product hits a certain price-point, more consumers start buying it. That leads to greater awareness, lower costs, and greater growth. Once that cycle starts, there’s no stopping it. The key here, though, is that the product be superior. And one of the key reasons disruptive technologies are so disruptive is that certain industry insiders and experts don’t realize the technology is so superior or coming down in cost so fast until it’s too late. Electric cars are far superior to gasmobiles. Many people experience that simply from driving one, or even driving in one! Owning one brings the awareness of superiority to an even greater degree. I don’t doubt that customers are finding electric cars as far superior products—I’ve driven my fair share of both types of cars and have experience the difference, and I’ve also followed the consumer response to electric cars very closely for the past few years. The economically disruptive cycle has begun. But many still don’t realize it. Consider this: only about 31% of Americans are aware of the Nissan Leaf, and only about 22% are aware of the Tesla Model S. For most of those who are aware, their awareness is likely very low, and most of them certainly haven’t driven one. But the number who own these vehicles is growing fast, which means that the number of people who are exposed to them is also growing fast, as well as the number who will be able to drive their friend’s or family member’s electric car...
http://green.autoblog.com/2014/02/21/su ... es-nevada/
Next week is Tesla Gigafactory week. The California automaker has a major announcement planned, and it's all about its intention to build a battery factory so large, the company is pulling out the giga prefix. At some point in the next seven days, we expect to hear where Tesla will build the plant, who it will partner with, how it will pay for it and lots of other details.

The Gigafactory will take in the raw materials for lithium batteries and put out finished packs, not only for the electric vehicles made by Tesla and its automotive customers, but also for massive amounts of renewable energy storage – that's a niche the company plans to begin to occupy sometime early next year with residential-sized products. The production volume is expected to be at least 30 gigawatt-hours-worth per year. That's more storage than all the lithium battery factories in the world combined produce now. Color us impressed.

Now, you might be thinking, "Is it really necessary to go that big at this point in time?" In a word: yes. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said its upcoming, more-affordable vehicle – widely expected to be called the Model E – will wear a $35,000 price tag and boast a battery big enough to take it 200 miles on a charge. To achieve this, the cost of the cells needs to come down dramatically, and so it's no coincidence that the time frame for the new facility will parallel that of this car. According to Musk, the benefits from the economies of scale will see a cost drop between 30 and 40 percent.
Best Wishes!

Mitch


The best quality batteries and lowest priced batteries for DIY EV's are tier 1 OEM Quality Cells from salvaged (wrecked) EV packs. Three examples are Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3 packs.

Nissan Leaf Module specs are here
Chevy Volt Pack Info - Salvage 16kwh Packs Under $2k here

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by Hillhater » Feb 24 2014 12:12am

Tesla's "Giga factory" for batteries...
I would not want to be the decision maker for this.
Musk has to commit to a battery supply in order to ensure he can support his business plan for car sales,.. but battery / cell technology is changing fast. Even Musk admits it will be dramatically different in a few years.
Also, investing 100's of millions of dollars (billion + ?) to a production plant could only be justified on the basis of established and proven technology .
( large production process plants are custom built and need to operate efficiently for many years to achieve ROI , they dont have time for a long R&D or development program)
Now, i am no battery expert, but i know a little about large scale, fast production processes, and i suspect that any significant change to cell chemistry ( non lithium ?), or cell format ( larger can, or pouch ?) would be a huge issue for a "giga" plant to deal with.
Even assuming it would be technically possible to effect future any changes, the financial cost and impact on output would be a nightmare ( it is exactly the sort of technology shift that destroys a business)
So Musk has to put his money into a cell format and chemistry that he believes will still be economical in 5 + years...
....presumably the Lithium 18650 that their current designs are based on .
That is a big call, considering the predicted potential changes in cells, and the direction most other EV players are going with cell development.
I wish him luck ..i think he will need it !
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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by doctorGONZO » Feb 24 2014 12:25am

GONZO has no connection with, or communication with, Musk.

GONZO knows how the Musk crazy guess could turn out OK.

Is Musk doing a Hail Mary or is he reading my mind?

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by bronz » Feb 24 2014 2:02am

Hillhater wrote:Tesla's "Giga factory" for batteries...
I would not want to be the decision maker for this.
Musk has to commit to a battery supply in order to ensure he can support his business plan for car sales,.. but battery / cell technology is changing fast. Even Musk admits it will be dramatically different in a few years.
Also, investing 100's of millions of dollars (billion + ?) to a production plant could only be justified on the basis of established and proven technology .
( large production process plants are custom built and need to operate efficiently for many years to achieve ROI , they dont have time for a long R&D or development program)
Now, i am no battery expert, but i know a little about large scale, fast production processes, and i suspect that any significant change to cell chemistry ( non lithium ?), or cell format ( larger can, or pouch ?) would be a huge issue for a "giga" plant to deal with.
Even assuming it would be technically possible to effect future any changes, the financial cost and impact on output would be a nightmare ( it is exactly the sort of technology shift that destroys a business)
So Musk has to put his money into a cell format and chemistry that he believes will still be economical in 5 + years...
....presumably the Lithium 18650 that their current designs are based on .
That is a big call, considering the predicted potential changes in cells, and the direction most other EV players are going with cell development.
I wish him luck ..i think he will need it !
I would like to see Lukes input here.

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by MitchJi » Feb 24 2014 3:14am

Hi,
Hillhater wrote:Tesla's "Giga factory" for batteries...
I would not want to be the decision maker for this.

Now, i am no battery expert, but i know a little about large scale, fast production processes, and i suspect that any significant change to cell chemistry ( non lithium ?), or cell format ( larger can, or pouch ?) would be a huge issue for a "giga" plant to deal with.

So Musk has to put his money into a cell format and chemistry that he believes will still be economical in 5 + years...

....presumably the Lithium 18650 that their current designs are based on.

I wish him luck ..i think he will need it!
It's a pretty safe bet. I see absolutely no indication of the 18650 format being a problem in the near future, and if something comes along that is incompatible and so superior that they need to switch, they won't need to make the transition overnight
Best Wishes!

Mitch


The best quality batteries and lowest priced batteries for DIY EV's are tier 1 OEM Quality Cells from salvaged (wrecked) EV packs. Three examples are Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3 packs.

Nissan Leaf Module specs are here
Chevy Volt Pack Info - Salvage 16kwh Packs Under $2k here

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by dogman dan » Feb 24 2014 6:40am

Hoping Musk had fallen in love with NM. Albuquerque is holding it's breath waiting.

God, I'd love to have that factories dumpster nearby.

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by bronz » Feb 24 2014 5:19pm

dogman wrote:Hoping Musk had fallen in love with NM. Albuquerque is holding it's breath waiting.

God, I'd love to have that factories dumpster nearby.
lol

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by liveforphysics » Feb 24 2014 8:31pm

Batteries aren't going to get more expensive.

Batteries aren't going to get worse performance.

Electric drive-train performance already destroys ICE.

EV's are of course going to replace all infernal combustion contraptions. I actually pity any ICE vehicle manufactures right now, because they are already doomed, and at best will get another few years of selling ICE contraptions to suckers before they go extinct.

However, while it's very awesome Tesla managed to make 18650 based packs work so well in an automotive application, I think it's silly to invest in 18650 manufacturing for large volume EV use, because no matter how cleverly you package a zillion tiny cans, it obviously will not be the mature path for EV batteries.

Put the same money the giga-factory costs into a mature purpose-built EV cell design and you will be making a better investment IMHO.
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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by wineboyrider » Feb 24 2014 8:43pm

Hey LFP I think the point hillhater was trying to make is that once Tesla has a certain amount of investment made into a ???? chemistry than makes them stuck into that factory model? :P
ES IS SAVED! THANK YOU JUSTIN.

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by Willow » Feb 24 2014 8:46pm

^^ totally agree.

...timing is the unkown.

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by 100volts+ » Feb 24 2014 8:59pm

If you guys knew what I know....okay I'll tell you. Elon Musk is a time traveler from the future. He already knows the path to take but he has to do things in a prescribed mannor or risk a time quake that could wipeout the people in his own time.
http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewto ... =1&t=57440

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by Willow » Feb 24 2014 9:04pm

100volts+ wrote:If you guys knew what I know....okay I'll tell you. Elon Musk is a time traveler from the future. He already knows the path to take but he has to do things in a prescribed mannor or risk a time quake that could wipeout the people in his own time.

...makes perfect sense.

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by liveforphysics » Feb 24 2014 10:14pm

Tesla isn't stuck with any design.

They have a massive flat package they can put any cell topology in that makes the most sense, and no possible change to alternative cell formats from thousands of tiny cans is going to be harder or more expensive to package than what they are already doing.

When you are starting out from a massively elaborate liquid cooled pack with many thousands of tiny cans, things can only get easier to build. :-)

The thing people sometimes miss, is that it only gets radically better for EVs. Infernal contraption vehicles have a century of maturing, EVs not only have drastically higher inherent performance potential, but the Model S driving experience already slaughtered the best ICE in just a few years if development.
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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by Hillhater » Feb 24 2014 11:50pm

Luke, ..its not the car pack production that i see as the issue, that could be easily altered for any future model production and even for the Model S... ( but at a significant cost).
no, It the battery (Cell) "Giga" factory that is about to be announced, where they have to commit to a cell chemistry and configuration in order to get the plant layout, equipment, services, and all other manufacturing facilities dedicated to that technology, underway .
Remember this is to be no ordinary cell production line or two, but a "Giga" plant, processing raw materials through to (i assume) fully assembled packs.
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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by Dauntless » Feb 25 2014 2:18am

Elon has done the only thing that would ever get people interested in electric cars. Make one exotic.

So how to create the interest in the new batteries. . . .

Image
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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by liveforphysics » Feb 25 2014 2:30am

Lets hope the giga plant makes some awesome EVs cells then if you think Elon is going to use the giga-plant to depart from the tiny cans.

I know how little modern EV cell production pollutes and consumes energy. I know Elon is the type who will spell out explicitly just how few tanks of gasoline it requires before the EV battery's complete manufacturer and materials harvesting is balanced once he is making them.

That will be nice for all of us. :-)
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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by bronz » Feb 25 2014 11:56am

This giga factory will change the tide in the EV ICE battle, regardless of the kind of cell that it will produce. I personally believe that this factory will be remembered for a long time.

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by friendly1uk » Feb 25 2014 1:37pm

This is a good move. Such a large factory will be hard to compete against. His own cars will benefit, but it is the volume of sales elsewhere that matters. Tesla could fold and this factory carry on. Just as long as they stick with 18650 and don't move to car sized cells. Anyone can use 18650. Nothing is going to replace that size packaging until energy density increases a lot.

Who wouldn't want an 18650 with 5Ah, or maybe 10Ah, Or even 15Ah. At what point does the 18560 form become undesirable? My only problem with them is connectivity when wanting high C rates, but that is not a problem for oem's. I expect to see a gradual move from 18650 to 14500 as power density increases allowing packaging to shrink. Watching this move will give a good indication of what the market needs. It will be ages though from what I'm seeing.

Now I realise that everyone's main use of batteries will probably be in vehicles, but making big cells not only limits your market, but also vehicle design. Some ev cells destined for cars are like paving slabs which are highly inflexible. Batteries should fit in cars, not cars around batteries. I don't like the form factor myself, but 18650 is here to stay. 14500 sales will eventually take over for small appliances, but i see no driving force to make bigger cells. Whatever larger size you imagine, It is not as flexible. It won't sell in huge volumes.

The other problem with slabs is cooling. Yes you can pack them in, but then you can't use them. We actually want gaps for heating and cooling them.

Their is always the chance of new chemistry arriving. We can't keep waiting though, somebody has to make what we have. Sticking to a known form factor future proofs a lot of your facility though. Plus nobody knows what is next, so nobody gains an advantage by doing nothing.

He seems to know what he is doing. He has a bigger house than me at least. I think when he builds his factory I would like to own a sandwich van outside lol
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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by Hillhater » Feb 26 2014 8:49pm

friendly1uk wrote: Just as long as they stick with 18650 and don't move to car sized cells. Anyone can use 18650. Nothing is going to replace that size packaging until energy density increases a lot.
I have seen nothing in any of the press releases about the "Giga factory" that specifically states (or even mentions ?) that it will be producing 18650 cells .
All capacity is referred to in GWhrs/yr ..( 35GWhrs/yr for the Gigafactory)...with no reference to cell format or production numbers.
Since this factory wont be in production for 3+ years yet, the cell technology and battery market could dramatically change by then.
One of the primary objectives for Tesla is to get battery pack costs down for their "Gen 111" pack, and its no secret that the current small cell pack format requires a lot of assembly complexity and added costs. I am sure they are frantically trying to find ways of reducing those assembly costs as well as the base cell cost. A larger capacity and/or cell would do that !
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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by aroundqube » Feb 26 2014 9:43pm

"everyone's main use of batteries" (globally) is consumer electronics. A market that is rapidly expanding. This is where I think the interest in possibilities of the Giga manufacturing plant are for Apple.

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by Hillhater » Feb 26 2014 10:33pm

aroundqube wrote:"everyone's main use of batteries" (globally) is consumer electronics. A market that is rapidly expanding. This is where I think the interest in possibilities of the Giga manufacturing plant are for Apple.
How many Apple products use 18650 cells ?
Musk has also declared his intention to supply battery "banks" for solar array systems.
Note:.. the stated capacity of the "gigafactory" is 35GWhrs/yr in 2017, by which time Tesla plan to be producing 500,000 cars.
...So,do the math,.. thats only enough capacity for an average of 70kWhr packs on each of those cars ( IE , Tesla will possibly still need external cell sources for some of its own vehicle production needs.
There is no spare capacity for any other major product lines for either Apple or even Musks solar proposals ??
Last edited by Hillhater on Feb 27 2014 4:29pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by Toorbough ULL-Zeveigh » Feb 26 2014 10:51pm

gigaCAPS™

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by zener » Feb 26 2014 11:31pm

Toorbough ULL-Zeveigh wrote:gigaCAPS™
On my Santa Claus wish list for this year :mrgreen:

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by wineboyrider » Feb 27 2014 3:51pm

http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/ ... tesla.html

Hey Dogman we're still in the race?!!
ES IS SAVED! THANK YOU JUSTIN.

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Re: EV'sWillDisruptAutoIndustrySoon-TeslaHugeBatteryPriceDro

Post by Hillhater » Feb 27 2014 4:26pm

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