Should we stock up before war starts with China?

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motomech   1.21 GW

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Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by motomech » Mar 04 2016 12:06pm

The U.S. Just Sent A Carrier Strike Group To Confront China.

http://www.navytimes.com/story/military ... /81270736/

Been following the build-up of tensions in the South China Sea for a while now (Gordon Chang is a good source) and it seems that unless China backs out of the corner they have painted themselves in, some sort of conflict is practically inevitable.

Anyone else concerned?
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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by spinningmagnets » Mar 04 2016 12:14pm

Invest in Lebowski motors...

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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by Drunkskunk » Mar 04 2016 1:02pm

Not worried this year. Obama would fold up and not get involved the same way he did when Russia invaded and took over part of the Ukraine. Next year may be interesting.

I think both trump and Clinton would have enough sense to handle it by attacking China's economy. Trump by emulating Reagan and starting an arms race with China that bankrupts their economy, and Clinton by sanctions that halt their exports.
It's Sanders and Cruz who scare me. Sanders would probably pull an Obama, and not do anything. Cruz wouldn't be decisive enough and anything he did would fail.
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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by anoNY42 » Mar 04 2016 1:42pm

Drunkskunk wrote:Not worried this year. Obama would fold up and not get involved the same way he did when Russia invaded and took over part of the Ukraine. Next year may be interesting.

I think both trump and Clinton would have enough sense to handle it by attacking China's economy. Trump by emulating Reagan and starting an arms race with China that bankrupts their economy, and Clinton by sanctions that halt their exports.
So Obama's sanctions against Russia count as "fold[ing] up", but if Clinton sanctions China it shows that she has "sense"?

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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by Drunkskunk » Mar 04 2016 2:24pm

Yes. :mrgreen:
Obama's sanctions against Russia had no bite. It was barely a wrist slap, and probably the wrong thing to do to convince Putin the U.S. would defend it's allies. We didn't.

Clinton would need to prove herself to a likely Republican congress by making a strong showing on foreign policy. Her sanctions might include freezing China's assets where the U.S. has influence, restricting trade to china on things like Oil, Iron, Copper, and food, and Putting the fleet off the coast of china and stopping their exports. You win a war by depriving a nation of land, people, or resources. Clinton is a business woman, she would go after their resources.

I'm not endorsing her, or saying her possible tactic is right. I'm just theory crafting. And I'm basing those theories on my belief/hope that even the worst candidates are better qualified to be president than Obama.
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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by anoNY42 » Mar 04 2016 3:00pm

But sanctions against Russia were essentially costless for us, considering how little we trade with them. On the other hand, sanctions against our largest trading partner, China, would have much more negative effects, no? I feel like Obama is handling Russia just fine, not using our military is a good move considering how our last war is (still) going. At the same time, Russia's economy is in the tank, though mostly due to oil prices, I guess.

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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by Punx0r » Mar 04 2016 3:27pm

motomech wrote: Anyone else concerned?
No. The idea is preposterous.

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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by WoodlandHills » Mar 04 2016 3:47pm

If we, the US and EU along with Aus and NZ, go to war with China, parts and batteries for electric bicycles will be the very least of our worries! If you think that the only impact from such a conflict would be the interruption of ebike supplies, you are delusional....... :?

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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by AF7JA » Mar 04 2016 4:10pm

anoNY42 wrote:
Drunkskunk wrote:Not worried this year. Obama would fold up and not get involved the same way he did when Russia invaded and took over part of the Ukraine. Next year may be interesting.

I think both trump and Clinton would have enough sense to handle it by attacking China's economy. Trump by emulating Reagan and starting an arms race with China that bankrupts their economy, and Clinton by sanctions that halt their exports.
So Obama's sanctions against Russia count as "fold[ing] up", but if Clinton sanctions China it shows that she has "sense"?
No, but he could have done what Bush did when Russia invaded Georgia . . . .absolutely nothing.

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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by motomech » Mar 04 2016 4:47pm

WoodlandHills wrote:If we, the US and EU along with Aus and NZ, go to war with China, parts and batteries for electric bicycles will be the very least of our worries! If you think that the only impact from such a conflict would be the interruption of ebike supplies, you are delusional....... :?
No, of course I don't think Ebikes would be important in such an event. I only linked them to raise the topic.
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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by motomech » Mar 04 2016 5:00pm

In fact, if it came to boycotting Chinese products, I would be on board with that.

What's perplexing to me is why is China pushing so hard.
I understand there are "hurt feelings" dating back to the "colonial period of the 1920's", on into the horible treatment during WWll. But hey, Mao was no Staint.
But i think in the main, although they are building up their capabilities, at this point and time, they have no way of dealing with our attack sub.s.
Unless our intel is way off base,they have no way of knowing where they are, how many are in the reigon, etc.
Surely, the deciding factor that would have them second guessing their current agressivness.
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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by The fingers » Mar 04 2016 5:22pm

WoodlandHills wrote:If we, the US and EU along with Aus and NZ, go to war with China, parts and batteries for electric bicycles will be the very least of our worries! If you think that the only impact from such a conflict would be the interruption of ebike supplies, you are delusional....... :?
Wal-Mart would most certainly be empty. :wink:
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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by liveforphysics » Mar 04 2016 7:46pm

motomech wrote: Chang is a good source) and it seems that unless China backs out of the corner they have painted themselves in, some sort of conflict is practically inevitable.

To say conflict is inevitable is to say not a single sane person is involved in US/China leadership who recognizes we are all shipmates sharing this same beautiful blue marble ripping through space together at difficult to fathom rates.

100% solvable by a single person with the balls to get over there own ego and make sane leadership decisions. Sadly, if someone decided to join the worlds largest harm causing clubs (militaries), they likely weren't big on wisdom or sanity to begin with.

Today in the USA we often look back with hindsight and think how crazy people must have been to have a 'civil war' (huge misnomer). Yet today, even though you can hop on a plane and look out the window the whole way and see it's just a shared surface of a priceless and fragile planet for all the USA and China alike, someone is so broken and disillusioned inside they can create some possible justification for using what resources this incredible planet gives us towards destruction of our fellow shipmates and things they used resources creating.

Governments and militaries are the true terrorists of this planet and all its inhabitants.
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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by liveforphysics » Mar 04 2016 7:53pm

Maybe its a blessing in disguise that alerts the masses that the choices made by those claiming to represent their own interests in fact only represent the military industrial complex in a corporatist style government.

From a harms perspective, its far better to have sporatic random disorganized and poorly funded and poorly equipped harm-causing squads than well organized well funded and well equipped legions of harm causers sharing this planet.
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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by Dauntless » Mar 04 2016 9:10pm

Punx0r wrote:
motomech wrote: Anyone else concerned?
No. The idea is preposterous.
+1. Obama has long been using the language 'Pivot toward Asia,' finally he's getting around to pivoting. It'll be good for them to be thinking about it when they keep doing things that could provoke war but expect no response other than a barrage of verbage. (Verbatrage? Sound kewl?)
Liveforphysics wrote:From a harms perspective, its far better to have sporatic random disorganized and poorly funded and poorly equipped harm-causing squads than well organized well funded and well equipped legions of harm causers sharing this planet.
Darn, don't you understand those are the squads that do all the collateral damage, killing all the women and children while missing the well trained troops, which continue to fire and take out a few more civilians themselves? Better to stick with your usual message of no violence whatsoever.
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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by Dauntless » Mar 05 2016 12:56am

motomech wrote: I understand there are "hurt feelings" dating back to the "colonial period of the 1920's", on into the horible treatment during WWll. But hey, Mao was no Staint.
But i think in the main, although they are building up their capabilities, at this point and time. . . .
They're sure capable of talking about an aircraft carrier that dwarfs any the U.S. has, but rather than building they buy an old Ukrainian carrier that has a way of becoming stranded at sea.They float all sorts of intelligence reports obviously intended to be intercepted, covering all sorts of high tech weapons there's no signs they really have.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-a ... ers-2015-9 Look at the U.S. Navy attack carriers and amphibious assault ships compared to the rest of the world.

The Chinese talk as though they were the hub of culture and ruled the world for thousands of years, but those years were a time of the Chinese being enslaved until their rulers died off, or of paying off the local warlords to not invade them. There's the one story of the fleet of ships that sailed down the river and awaited the moment to attack with the ships tied firmly side to side so nobody drifted away. Someone started a fire on deck and it jumped to ships on both sides, fairly quickly much of the fleet was destroyed. To the Chinese skill is luck and luck is skill, so this was treated as a masterful victory. If a sudden flood wiped out an attacking force, Chinese history records it as a great conquest.

In the 1800's, the time of the Opium wars, the feigned 'Boxer rebellion,' etc., came the century of humiliations. When the Communists first rose to power in the 1920's, (Yes, Chiang Kai Shek was a commie) there began a long string of public figures speaking of "Self Strengthening." Nothing much came of it until the world's manufacturers began moving jobs there. Of course the Chinese philosophy was that their brilliant strategy was finally working.

While they were waiting, the Japanese invaded. The 'Locust soldiers' would front the invaders, then seemingly vanish. They'd turn up attacking some outpost, etc. Avoiding direct confrontation, they kept from being conquered for 4 years, as the rest of Asia fell in months. Although the U.S. and Britain were helping.

The current Chinese strategy for war with the U.S. would be for the American ships to have mechanical trouble while the Chinese wait for Russia to take advantage and attack the U.S. Ultimately the Chinese would take credit for it all. War with the U.S. isn't going to be anything like provoking revolutions in African countries so they can take over later. The Chinese themselves would have to fight this war. Does the expression "Chinese fire drill? mean anything to you?

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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by liveforphysics » Mar 05 2016 1:11am

Dauntless wrote:
Liveforphysics wrote:From a harms perspective, its far better to have sporatic random disorganized and poorly funded and poorly equipped harm-causing squads than well organized well funded and well equipped legions of harm causers sharing this planet.
Darn, don't you understand those are the squads that do all the collateral damage, killing all the women and children while missing the well trained troops, which continue to fire and take out a few more civilians themselves? Better to stick with your usual message of no violence whatsoever.

I apologize for the misinterpretation. Certainly for peaceful conduct, but I recognize not all beings shared this philosophy. To me it makes most sense if the people who want to do harms aren't trained how to be most hazardous and given well funded well engineered tools to cause harm with.

If some people have psychological issues and want to cause harm, I would much rather have them using whatever they can scrounge up to go be destructive with than dedicate resources towards giving them super powerful military weapons and training them to be proficient at killing with them.

No atrocity too great if you're a part of a well organized well funded group with shiny matching uniforms. Individual beings often exhibit some standard of ethical conduct code that quickly falls away as the group grows in size and structure.

If a population has an individual with some violent psychosis, his individual destructive influences is a rather small and easily solvable issue. If you create a structure where they can conscript and brainwash millions of folks to go focus on ways to cause harm to our fellow shipmates, it becomes a more concerning issue. I've been to Germany a number of times, super nice folks! However, you do enough mob mentality flag waving and telling them it's for a greater good cause and these same nice folks operate gas chambers for there own fellow citizens, while each beings individual ethics normally wouldn't choose to treat folks that way.
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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by dogman dan » Mar 05 2016 6:50am

We're not going to war over the island. But like dogs sniffing ass, some posturing must be done, rituals of the dance performed.

Big China wants that island back, just like they got Hong Kong back. It's not going away. But face has to be saved all around before they get it back.

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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by Racer_X » Mar 05 2016 8:50am

Back to the subject
Should we stock up before war starts with China?
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Re: Should we stock up before war starts with China?

Post by LockH » Mar 05 2016 9:09am

Punx0r wrote:
motomech wrote: Anyone else concerned?
No. The idea is preposterous.
Great for business.
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