la Nina rears her ugly head

Talk about anything and everything here within reason.
User avatar
amberwolf   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 25082
Joined: Aug 17 2009 6:43am
Location: Phoenix, AZ, USA, Earth, Sol, Local Bubble, Orion Arm, Milky Way, Local Group
Contact:

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » Mar 11 2018 8:08pm

All we got out of the almost daylong storm was about a tenth of an inch, from yesterday middayish thru this morning. Enough to dampen the dirt, and make it warm and humid thru midday today. Then it got warm and drier, kinda nice out there.

Might get more next weekend, if lucky.

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 12 2018 6:29pm

Tonight
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Tuesday
A chance of rain after 11am. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Rain likely, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 63. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday
Rain likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
Friday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.
Saturdwy
Rain likely, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 55.
Saturdqy Night
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Sunday
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Monday
A slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 12 2018 7:27pm

Massive plume of pineapple moisture whip-saws towards the Southern Califotnia Bight. If it zigs instead of zags, we'll get significant rainfall. If the big Low off of the north coast drops down and intensifies the news is now calling for a "March Miracle" on Friday Night and Saturday. The lawn is beginning to green up a little from the rain. Time to buy some weed & feed. :mrgreen:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/fd/rbtop.html
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
fechter   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 12875
Joined: Dec 31 2006 3:23pm
Location: California Bay Area, USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Mar 13 2018 9:50am

The vortex is passing over us now and looks like about 0.25" so far. They say it will pass over, then circle around and come over us again later in the week. Fingers is getting the pineapple express, while I'm going to be getting the frigid air from Alaska.
Satellite Img.jpg
Satellite Img.jpg (145.93 KiB) Viewed 843 times
"One test is worth a thousand opinions"

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 14 2018 1:02am

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
***************************************** :|
Barely enough to wet the street, hope we get more overnight.

STATION_____________PRICIP(IN)____ELEVATION(FT)
HEMET VALLE VISTA___ 0.01 ___________2050
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
fechter   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 12875
Joined: Dec 31 2006 3:23pm
Location: California Bay Area, USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Mar 14 2018 9:36am

The swirly thing dumped about 1" here yesterday. Not bad.
"One test is worth a thousand opinions"

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 15 2018 2:12am

Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 15 2018 8:29am

Got some overnight. Slept right through it.
Was expecting some lightning and thunder.

STATION______________ PRECIP(IN)_______ ELEVATION(FT)
HEMET VALLE VISTA_____ 0.25 ________________2050
:)
Next wave due on Friday night, with another chance on Wednesday.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
fechter   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 12875
Joined: Dec 31 2006 3:23pm
Location: California Bay Area, USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Mar 15 2018 7:06pm

They've been talking about another "atmospheric river" forming early next week:
Now for the much
anticipated possible Atmospheric River event. Not too surprising,
but the AR guidance continues to waffle along the Central Coast to
SoCal. Some guidance keeps the AR over SoCal where other guidance
aims the AR toward Big Sur. As they say, devil is in the details.
Nailing down the specifics of an AR this far out it is hard, but
it is easier to say the middle of next week continues to look
rather wet.
Wet enough here, another 0.75" since yesterday. Still way, way behind what we had last season.
"One test is worth a thousand opinions"

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 16 2018 12:53am

Friday
A chance of rain after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Showers. Low around 41. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday
A chance of showers, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Light southwest wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Tuesday
Increasing clouds, with a high near 70.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 46.
Wednesday
A slight chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 71.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 47.
Thursday
A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 66.

Goes Full Disk view showing the AR potential for next week, stretching from NW of Hawaii to the Aleutian Islands. Low pressure and cold front coming down the coast bringing cooler temps with rain and snow in the local mountains tomorrow night into Saturday. We'll take all we can get.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/fd/rbtop.html
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 16 2018 8:01pm

Chance of rain is now at 100% for tonight. :mrgreen:
Area of high pressure over Hawaii could dam the atmospheric river before it arrives next week. :pancake:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/fd/rbtop.html
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
fechter   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 12875
Joined: Dec 31 2006 3:23pm
Location: California Bay Area, USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Mar 16 2018 9:58pm

NWS:
Forecast models show relatively high agreement that another storm
system will impact California from at least Tuesday through
Thursday of next week. Model data shows a robust subtropical
precipitable water plume associated with this storm system,
however, models have been undecided with the positioning of this
moisture plume. The bulk of any rainfall from next weeks system
will be concentrated wherever this moisture plume ultimately aims
at, and, for now, that has been shifting between each model output
and model run. Latest thinking is that the bulk of the
precipitation will be aimed at the Monterey Bay and southward
(particularly in an area from Big Sur to Santa Ventura county),
however, this is likely to continue to change as the model comes
into better focus. GEFS atmospheric river detection parameters are
only beginning to get a hint that this system may surpass the
500kg/m/s IVT value, which, for now, suggests this system may
still have some room to grow, especially given that the dProg/dT
(a measure of model change over time) suggests a moistening trend.
"One test is worth a thousand opinions"

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 17 2018 2:34am

NWS:
Another significant trough should develop off the coast by the middle of next week. This trough will likely tap a plume of subtropical moisture (AR) and draw it northward toward the California coast. While impacts are possible in northern California by Tuesday, current model projections suggest Wednesday-Thursday as the more likely arrival time for SoCal. This a system worth watching as it may have a richer moisture pool than any storm we have seen in the last few weeks.
What they're saying here, still hoping for a "March Miracle".
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 17 2018 11:24am

Overnight total. May get a little more by this evening. :)
STATION__________________ PRECIP(IN)_______ ELEVATION(FT)
HEMET VALLE VISTA __________0.17________________2050

If the storm directly west of Hawaii combines with the storm in the northwest Pacific, we could see a significant weather event for the Cali coast next week. With all the Siberian cold air behind it this might be Putin's Revenge. MUHUHAHAHAHA! :twisted:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/jma/fd/rbtop.html

On the news they're calling it a three day rain event.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 17 2018 9:21pm

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=2 ... S76-RERSGX
Record daytime low tied just 20 miles up the hill. Took a drive out to Desert Hot Springs. Windy but just a couple of drops of rain observed.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 18 2018 1:17am

Rained pretty good coming back.
La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
********************************************************************* :)
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 19 2018 12:57am

Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday
A chance of rain, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night
Rain likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 61.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Friday
A slight chance of showers before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 41.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
fechter   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 12875
Joined: Dec 31 2006 3:23pm
Location: California Bay Area, USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Mar 19 2018 8:27am

Looks like this one is going to pass between us, but it's officially a cutoff low, which the computer models seem to have a really hard time with.
Tuesday through Sunday

A storm system with significant moisture is forecast to impact the
San Francisco Bay Area and Monterey Bay Area from Tuesday through
Thursday. This system is expected to produce periods of heavy
rain, particularly across the Santa Lucia Mountains above the Big
Sur Coast. This system will also produce strong and gusty winds
at times.
"One test is worth a thousand opinions"

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 19 2018 9:00am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html
The storm seems to be intensifying as it lingers over the ocean. :twisted:
As Dr.George Fischbeck used to say, "The cut-off low is the weatherman's woe".
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
fechter   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 12875
Joined: Dec 31 2006 3:23pm
Location: California Bay Area, USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Mar 19 2018 9:51pm

Ah, the Pineapple Express is coming:
All eyes now focus on a robust storm system currently spinning
over the Eastern Pacific near 140.5W 33N. This storm system will
begin to pump subtropical moisture to CA as an Atmospheric
River. Source region is near HI so this AR can be described as a
Pineapple Express. Latest satellite imagery has PWATs 1.5-2" or
about +200% of normal.
"One test is worth a thousand opinions"

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 20 2018 12:27am

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=you ... vgbWGPi7vI
Forecast amounts 3-4 inches in LA, 1.5 -2 inches where I live, and .5-1 inch of rain for the deserts falling at rates of up to .5 inch per hour. :shock:
Watch out Montecito. :twisted:
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 21 2018 1:33pm

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/fd/rbtop.html
Equatorial moisture is now the source of the Atmospheric River in this full disk satellite view.
Chomper, the Global Warming Tortoise, emerged from hibernation on the Vernal Equinox with a healthy appetite. He announced his presence by scratching on the patio door and the outside wall next to the fireplace. Right now he's soaking up some sun during a break in the clouds.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
fechter   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 12875
Joined: Dec 31 2006 3:23pm
Location: California Bay Area, USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Mar 21 2018 7:25pm

2.1" here since yesterday and still coming down. Not bad considering the storm "missed" us here. Further south is really getting it.
"One test is worth a thousand opinions"

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 22 2018 1:58pm

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... x&loop=yes

It's finally starting to spread this way.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

User avatar
The fingers   100 GW

100 GW
Posts: 6316
Joined: Mar 11 2012 11:22pm
Location: Desert Pacific Cali USA

Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 22 2018 4:19pm

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
********************************************************************************* :D
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

Post Reply