la Nina rears her ugly head

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The fingers
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 22, 2018 7:10 pm

Lat: 33.74N Lon: 116.888W Storm total as of 3 PM:
STATION _______________PRECIP(IN) ______ELEVATION(FT)
HEMET VALLE VISTA ______0.23 ______________2050
A far cry from the 2-3 inches forecast. :( Still may be thunderstorms overnight. :shock:
P.S. Ended up getting a third of an inch for the 3 day total. Next chance of rain is for Saturday night.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 25, 2018 12:44 am

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
*** :twisted:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Mar 25, 2018 6:59 pm

I got right around 4" out of the system. Clearing up today and I went for a ride in the mud. This might be the end of the rain season here as no more precipitation is in the forecast for at least a week.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Mar 27, 2018 12:36 am

Tonight
Clear, with a low around 41. South wind around 5 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 70. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 47. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 52. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 79.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.
Sunday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Monday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

Most folks here believe the rain is over also. We can get summer thunderstorms however, but with the periods of heat they only make the humidity worse. :oops: :oops: :oops:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Mar 29, 2018 10:04 pm

Official high here today was 84F, which broke the record for this date. Perfect biking weather, but I had to work. I think we'll see more record highs in the future.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 01, 2018 1:15 pm

Saturday

A slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 77.

:roll:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 01, 2018 2:00 pm

They're talking about another atmospheric river event later this week with unusually high moisture content for this time of year. I'll take what I can get. Hills are all nice and green now and a little rain will keep them green a bit longer.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 02, 2018 1:37 am

:pancake: Atmospheric Rivulet for us.
Last edited by The fingers on Apr 02, 2018 1:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 02, 2018 1:40 am

https://www.weather.gov/sgx/
Click on the Dry Winter tab above the map for La Niña vs El Niño side by side comparison. :evil:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 02, 2018 2:03 am

Saturday
A slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 76.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

:roll:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 02, 2018 7:37 am

La Nina is dying out.
La Niña is loosening its grip on the tropics. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific remain cooler than average, but the typical La Niña wind and rainfall anomalies have faded. Conditions are likely (55% chance) to return to neutral by the March-May season.
But looks like I might be in for some real rain later in the week.
Indications are that the leading edge of a very
well organized long fetch of subtropical moisture will first arrive
later Thursday, an atmospheric river with maximum integrated water
vapor transport values meeting or temporarily exceeding 1,000 kg/m/s
from Friday into Saturday. On a scale from 1 (weak) to 5 (exceptional)
this atmospheric river will last approx 48 hours at category 3 or
category 4 which means it`ll be borderline mostly hazardous with
respect to hydro considerations, but also of course bring beneficial
rain.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 02, 2018 11:04 am

Friday Night
A slight chance of rain after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Saturday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73.
Saturday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Increasing chances, but had to turn the sprinklers on already. Some drizzle this AM, normal for this time of year.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 04, 2018 12:51 pm

We now have a 50% chance of rain for Saturday, but probably only low amounts here in the valley. Click on the CA Rains tab above the map for the state-wide difference. :(
https://www.weather.gov/sgx/
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 04, 2018 1:37 pm

Source of the atmospheric river visible to the west of Hawaii in this Japanese satellite view:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/jma/fd/rbtop.html
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 04, 2018 1:44 pm

And guess where that is headed:
Thursday
A 20 percent chance of rain after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. Calm wind becoming south southwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday Night
Rain. Low around 53. South southeast wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 64. South southeast wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Friday Night
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday
Rain. High near 64. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
So I might see somewhere on the order of 5" of rain by Sunday.
"One test is worth a thousand opinions"

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 04, 2018 11:43 pm

Dually lows traversing the North Pacific bringing an incredibly lengthly pineapple stream:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 06, 2018 12:44 pm

Rain chance now at 20% for Saturday night. Some models have taken it out entirely. :(
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 06, 2018 12:54 pm

It’s coming down pretty good here but the predicted totals have been downgraded a bit. Flash flood watch has been issued.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 07, 2018 1:02 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-ft.html
Pineapple stream thins to a trickle. I smell a skunk. :x
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 08, 2018 12:04 am

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
** :twisted:


Wednesday Night
A slight chance of rain after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Thursday
A slight chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. :roll:
Black Schwinn High Sierra
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Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » Apr 08, 2018 1:41 am

No rain here, but higher humidity (for a desert) than usual, sometimes a bit of cloud outside the valley (nothing really over the valley itself until well after dark, so it just holds the heat in after the clear skies let it in).

Been in the 90s F and now it's staying in the 80s F till well after midnight. Gonna have to put the window A/C unit back in tomorrow, as I can't cool the room down enough to sleep by using a fan to pull in outside air now, until perhaps two or three hours before dawn. :(

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 09, 2018 12:15 am

Total of 2.5" here over the weekend. Not the 5" they were predicting, but 2.5" is still way more than we normally see in April. They're talking about another small disturbance later this week, then I think that might be it for the rain season.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 10, 2018 12:28 am

Once again, they've taken the rain chance out of the forecast. Not a good sign. :x
Record heat today. :oops:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 11, 2018 9:18 am

Just a few drops here, so I went riding anyway. Things are really green now. Most of the year, the grass is all yellow and dried out.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » Apr 12, 2018 2:35 am

Gonna be interesting riding the next few days. I might take the canopy off just so it doesnt make a sail.
Thursday
Patchy blowing dust after 2pm. Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 82. Windy, with a west wind 10 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Thursday Night
Patchy blowing dust before 8pm. Clear, with a low around 53. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 76. Breezy, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 52. Breezy, with a north wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

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