la Nina rears her ugly head

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fechter
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 12, 2018 8:37 am

Another 0.25" last night. There is another chance this weekend. If this keeps up, the fire danger will be pretty bad later in the season.
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The fingers
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 12, 2018 5:37 pm

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
*** :twisted:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 12, 2018 6:14 pm

Wednesday Night
A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Thursday
A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 65.
:roll:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 15, 2018 6:41 pm

Once again the rain chance is gone from the forecast. Nothing this far south except some wind. :(
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-ft.html
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fechter
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 15, 2018 7:08 pm

Coming down here now. Forecast is for about 1/2" by tomorrow, then it sort of dries out.

Here's how it looked yesterday. About 70F and sunny.
Img_0725A.jpg
Img_0725A.jpg (135.77 KiB) Viewed 187 times
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » Apr 15, 2018 7:31 pm

We did get a lot of teh wind they promised, some of it quite high, but none of it reached 40 that I was in--some of it enough to affect the trikes performance but none of it bad enough ot make it tippy even in gusts suddenly appearing as passing thru intersections or passing gaps between sets of buildings. Fair bit of dust and allergens in the air, though.

Did keep the city air somewhat clear of the usual car/traffic pollutants though, so it was easier to breathe even with the dust/etc.

Mostly died down today, though, so temps went up and breathability went back down.

Expected to stay breezy next couple days with maybe 25mph gusts, with significant temperature drops, and then die down a couple days, then get breezy/gusty again a couple more days, then calm back down (and temps go back up) just as my week off starts.

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 15, 2018 10:13 pm

Monday Night
A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Back again. Whaaaaat? The Wonky Weather Service waffles the rain chances back into the forecast for tomorrow night. :P
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 16, 2018 9:44 am

Off again, now moved to Thursday. :?
Thursday
A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
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Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 16, 2018 10:38 pm

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
* :twisted:
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

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The fingers
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 16, 2018 11:38 pm

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... x&loop=yes
Trace amounts of rain in the desert and to the Southeast; over the Coachella, Imperial, and Colorado River Valleys.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
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Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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Hebrews 9:27

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fechter
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 17, 2018 8:27 am

0.25" here and unusually cold. A chance for more Wednesday night, then it should go back to sunny and near normal temps.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 18, 2018 1:48 pm

Now the Wonky Weather Service has upped the chance for rain tomorrow morning to 30%, expected total to be less than a tenth of an inch. :roll:
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Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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Hebrews 9:27

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by tomjasz » Apr 19, 2018 12:51 am

Snow today, and 50plus tomorrow, nuts!
Thanks Justin_le we're here thanks to you. All the best to the mods for their tireless work keeping it on an even keel.

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 19, 2018 11:22 am

40% chance of rain this morning. :roll:
Black Schwinn High Sierra
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Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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Hebrews 9:27

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 19, 2018 1:18 pm

Our chance last night evaporated before it hit the ground, so zero in the rain gauge. Back to sunny, warm weather, which I am ready for.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 19, 2018 1:39 pm

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
*********************************** :|
Just some brief mist, nothing measurable.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 22, 2018 1:51 am

20% chance of rain for next Saturday. :roll:
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 23, 2018 7:19 pm

82 and sunny here today. I think it's close to a record. Slight chance of rain on the weekend.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 23, 2018 10:33 pm

Thursdaynny, with a high near 86. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 82.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 77.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 75.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.

Another Wonky Weather Service evaporating rsin chance. :roll:
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 24, 2018 8:16 am

Sounds like La Nina is over and it's back to neutral conditions
Most models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña will decay and return to ENSO-neutral during the current March-May season [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus similarly favors a transition to neutral, with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer 2018. Thereafter, there is considerable forecast uncertainty, in part due to the lower prediction skill for forecasts made at this time of year. In summary, La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral during April-May, with ENSO-neutral then likely (greater than 50% chance) to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » Apr 25, 2018 2:09 am

Apparently neutral means summer, here. Almost broke 100F today, was only a degree less yesterday.

Of course, it has to be the hottest week of the year (with almost no breeze at all) so far during my week off, when I need to work outside on yard and ebike stuff. :/

Its about ten degrees hotter than normal.

At least I have the trees for shade, and a DIY awning under a couple of those to further shade, but still allow the extremely slight occasional breeze we sort of got now and then.

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 25, 2018 12:41 pm

Long Range Outlook for next week: The model spread is quite large next week which makes it difficult to pinpoint which days will have the best chance for showers. The GFS advertises a deep cold upper low stalling over the Southwest Monday-Wednesday, while the ECMWF delays this upper low until Wednesday and Thursday. This uncertainty is too large to introduce rain chances at this time. :roll:

Well it looks like cooler temps for the weekend, good gardening weather. :mrgreen:

As for the comeback kid:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-p ... ages/enso/
Black Schwinn High Sierra
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Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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Hebrews 9:27

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