la Nina rears her ugly head

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fechter   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 12 2018 8:37am

Another 0.25" last night. There is another chance this weekend. If this keeps up, the fire danger will be pretty bad later in the season.
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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 12 2018 5:37pm

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
*** :twisted:
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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 12 2018 6:14pm

Wednesday Night
A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Thursday
A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 65.
:roll:
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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 15 2018 6:41pm

Once again the rain chance is gone from the forecast. Nothing this far south except some wind. :(
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-ft.html
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fechter   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 15 2018 7:08pm

Coming down here now. Forecast is for about 1/2" by tomorrow, then it sort of dries out.

Here's how it looked yesterday. About 70F and sunny.
Img_0725A.jpg
Img_0725A.jpg (135.77 KiB) Viewed 724 times
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amberwolf   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » Apr 15 2018 7:31pm

We did get a lot of teh wind they promised, some of it quite high, but none of it reached 40 that I was in--some of it enough to affect the trikes performance but none of it bad enough ot make it tippy even in gusts suddenly appearing as passing thru intersections or passing gaps between sets of buildings. Fair bit of dust and allergens in the air, though.

Did keep the city air somewhat clear of the usual car/traffic pollutants though, so it was easier to breathe even with the dust/etc.

Mostly died down today, though, so temps went up and breathability went back down.

Expected to stay breezy next couple days with maybe 25mph gusts, with significant temperature drops, and then die down a couple days, then get breezy/gusty again a couple more days, then calm back down (and temps go back up) just as my week off starts.

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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 15 2018 10:13pm

Monday Night
A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Back again. Whaaaaat? The Wonky Weather Service waffles the rain chances back into the forecast for tomorrow night. :P
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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 16 2018 9:44am

Off again, now moved to Thursday. :?
Thursday
A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
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Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 16 2018 10:38pm

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
* :twisted:
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 16 2018 11:38pm

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... x&loop=yes
Trace amounts of rain in the desert and to the Southeast; over the Coachella, Imperial, and Colorado River Valleys.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
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Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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fechter   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 17 2018 8:27am

0.25" here and unusually cold. A chance for more Wednesday night, then it should go back to sunny and near normal temps.
"One test is worth a thousand opinions"

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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 18 2018 1:48pm

Now the Wonky Weather Service has upped the chance for rain tomorrow morning to 30%, expected total to be less than a tenth of an inch. :roll:
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tomjasz   1.21 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by tomjasz » Apr 19 2018 12:51am

Snow today, and 50plus tomorrow, nuts!
Thanks Justin_le we're here thanks to you. All the best to the mods for their tireless work keeping it on an even keel.

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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 19 2018 11:22am

40% chance of rain this morning. :roll:
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Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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Hebrews 9:27

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fechter   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 19 2018 1:18pm

Our chance last night evaporated before it hit the ground, so zero in the rain gauge. Back to sunny, warm weather, which I am ready for.
"One test is worth a thousand opinions"

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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 19 2018 1:39pm

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
*********************************** :|
Just some brief mist, nothing measurable.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 22 2018 1:51am

20% chance of rain for next Saturday. :roll:
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

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fechter   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 23 2018 7:19pm

82 and sunny here today. I think it's close to a record. Slight chance of rain on the weekend.
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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 23 2018 10:33pm

Thursdaynny, with a high near 86. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 82.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 77.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 75.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.

Another Wonky Weather Service evaporating rsin chance. :roll:
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fechter   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 24 2018 8:16am

Sounds like La Nina is over and it's back to neutral conditions
Most models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña will decay and return to ENSO-neutral during the current March-May season [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus similarly favors a transition to neutral, with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer 2018. Thereafter, there is considerable forecast uncertainty, in part due to the lower prediction skill for forecasts made at this time of year. In summary, La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral during April-May, with ENSO-neutral then likely (greater than 50% chance) to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018
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amberwolf   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » Apr 25 2018 2:09am

Apparently neutral means summer, here. Almost broke 100F today, was only a degree less yesterday.

Of course, it has to be the hottest week of the year (with almost no breeze at all) so far during my week off, when I need to work outside on yard and ebike stuff. :/

Its about ten degrees hotter than normal.

At least I have the trees for shade, and a DIY awning under a couple of those to further shade, but still allow the extremely slight occasional breeze we sort of got now and then.

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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 25 2018 12:41pm

Long Range Outlook for next week: The model spread is quite large next week which makes it difficult to pinpoint which days will have the best chance for showers. The GFS advertises a deep cold upper low stalling over the Southwest Monday-Wednesday, while the ECMWF delays this upper low until Wednesday and Thursday. This uncertainty is too large to introduce rain chances at this time. :roll:

Well it looks like cooler temps for the weekend, good gardening weather. :mrgreen:

As for the comeback kid:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-p ... ages/enso/
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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 26 2018 1:29pm

Monday Night
A slight chance of showers after 11pm. Increasing clouds, with a low around 48.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Wednesday
A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

:roll:
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
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Hebrews 9:27

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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 26 2018 8:47pm

There are small chances for light precipitation west of the mountains early Monday and slightly greater chances for light precipitation along and west of the mountains for Tuesday into early Wednesday.

As of now the chance of measurable rain is at 20%.
Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 27 2018 9:46am

Black Schwinn High Sierra
Blue Schwinn Cruiser 5
Blue Schwinn High Plains
Black Fiore Cruzer 5: Amped Warp Drive 26" Front DD/SLA kit
http://ghostbikes.org/
http://www.rideofsilence.org/main.php
Hebrews 9:27

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