la Nina rears her ugly head

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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 15 2019 1:55am

Soggy Doggy Detailed Forecast
Tonight
A chance of showers, mainly before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday
Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 39. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light south. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday
Showers likely, mainly after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
Rain showers likely before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Washington's Birthday
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 15 2019 11:52pm

Kona Low pumping moisture into the Pineapple Express. :twisted:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepa ... op-ft.html
Where it will end up is anyone’s guess.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Feb 16 2019 12:21am

About 0.5" more here in the form of scattered downpours. Got a pretty good dose of small hail too, which is quite rare around here. Almost enough to make a snowball, but it melted too fast.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 17 2019 2:01pm

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r8A_QYYdi68
Combination of Kona, Pineapple, and Pitaya moisture not able to overcome and augment fast-moving cold air mass from north. Atmospheric river now squeezed into a trickle.
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepa ... op-ft.html
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 18 2019 1:37am

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
************************************************************************* :)

Cold, for us this series of storms have been our version of winter. Compared to the rest of the country this isn't that bad. Snow level 4,000ft, the mountains are getting hit the hardeset with so many roads washed out.The only way to Idyllwild now is through Palm Springs (100+ mile detour). Another wet night followed by a frosty morning. :oops:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 18 2019 10:04am

RYNC1 HEMET/RYAN FIELD 0.11 1510
Valle Vista Station information missing.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 18 2019 6:26pm

Thursday Night
Rain showers likely before 4am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Friday
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.

:shock:
Right now there's a rather scary looking thundersnow storn on the surrounding mountains.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 19 2019 9:30pm

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 20 2019 9:48am

Alaskan Igloo Express takes aim at Cali. :oops:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-ft.html
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El Niño: The Comeback Kid

Post by The fingers » Feb 20 2019 10:53am

He's baaaaaack!
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... s-are-here

If all that Pineapple moisture combines with Kamchatka cold weather systems the kid could become a killer. :twisted:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepa ... op-ft.html
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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 21 2019 8:17am

Rain storm totals as of 4:00am:
SDHET HEMET VALLE VISTA 0.13 2050
40f degrees so no snow. On the news they’re saying that the high of 54f degrees will happen around noon, then the temperature is expected to drop off as the front passes through. :oops:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 21 2019 6:43pm

Was about to post raining cats and dogs when it grew strangely silent. Opened the window to look and it was snowing. Went out and it continued for several minutes, melting as it hit the ground, followed by a few more minutes of mixed rain and snow. Might get some more tonight. 8)
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Feb 22 2019 9:02am

Snow in Hemet?
Las Vegas hit with first measurable amount of snow in a decade

Parts of the Southwest that are known for sunny weather experienced a true winter wonderland this week. Las Vegas was hit with its second snowstorm in a week Wednesday, and it's the most snow the city has received in over a decade.

A winter storm in the southwest part of the country hit Las Vegas with a rare half an inch of snow Wednesday. According to the National Weather Service, it's a record for this date. Areas around the city received 1 to 3 inches, delighting tourists and confusing residents. The NWS says the snow could continue into Friday, potentially turning into icy rain.
Minneapolis sets snow record, ‘Powerful Winter Storm’ Could Hit Twin Cities.

It’s official. February 2019 has been the snowiest February on record for the Twin Cities metro area. So far, 31.5 inches of snow has fallen this month, according to the National Weather Service. That beats the previous record held by February 1962, which saw 26.5 inches.

And there’s still at least two more chances for snow this month.

“A couple inches of snow is expected across west central Minnesota Friday through Friday night, with lesser amounts to the east,” says the NWS.

After that, there’s a chance that another powerful storm could hit Minnesota this weekend.

NWS says it is “highly confident a powerful winter storm will bring a narrow band of heavy snow and strong wind late Saturday into Sunday, but we still can’t say where exactly the storm track will be. Needless to say, this is a storm to monitor, especially if you have travel plans.”
I was born in St. Paul and can remember as a kid times when the snow drifted up against the house all the way to the roof and I could just walk up the snow and get on the roof. And then jump off into a big snow bank. Snow is fun when you're a kid.

I've had almost 4 days without rain here. But it's expected back by the weekend.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by 2old » Feb 22 2019 12:09pm

Probably ride up to about 4,000' elevation today and "visit" the snow (if I can get through the "streams" at the bottom of the "hill"). Rained the last several days (except Sunday), but none predicted for the next week.

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 23 2019 9:27am

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)
SDHET HEMET VALLE VISTA 0.29 2050

Total since Wednesday. Will be drying out for the next several days. :)

Detailed Forecast
Today
Areas of frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 57. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. Calm wind.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 63. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 41. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 69.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 71.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Feb 23 2019 2:21pm

Well, more rain headed my way with another moderate atmospheric river event. Forecast confidence is low as the computer models are not in agreement.
Assuming the current forecast package is correct (it will change
in the coming days), the heaviest rain is expected to fall across
the North Bay between Monday and Tuesday afternoons. The North
Bay mountains and coastal ranges could pick up 4-6" storm total,
with 2.5-3.5" for the inland valleys. Farther southward, 1.25-2.0"
are possible for San Francisco, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra
Costa counties, plus the Santa Cruz mountains.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » Feb 23 2019 9:53pm

The rain finally let up last night here, and it was clear overnight thru today (and very cold, below freezing, overnight, enough to get 3/4" of ice on top of the doggie "pool", which Jelly broke thru without trying by stepping on it, while Kirin stared at it trying to figure out how to get a drink).

At my place we got something like 4" of rain, as I had left the doggie pool empty, and it was nearly full by the end of the long storm (over a day, maybe two--I lost track). The front and back yards are mostly mud; the back is much worse since the dogs (mostly PeanutButter and Jelly) churned it up pretty much everywhere playing in the rain. I didn't get any pics of them but everytime they'd come in, they looked more like Black Labs than St. Bernards. :lol:

From what I could see on the doppler radar pages, some small areas in teh east-ish valley got up to what might be as much as 7-8", outside those areas some got 4-6", most got 1-2" or less,

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Feb 24 2019 12:47pm

Wow, that's a big percentage of the annual total for that area.

Looks like I'm in for something like 4-8" this week.
2-24-19 weather.JPG
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » Feb 25 2019 12:06am

fechter wrote:
Feb 24 2019 12:47pm
Wow, that's a big percentage of the annual total for that area.
The "official" rainfal was much less:
Phoenix on Thursday set a new record for the day with 1.01 inch (2.57 centimeters) of rain, eclipsing the old mark of 0.73 inch (1.85 centimeters) set in 1973.
but that's only at a single location, and rainfall here in the valley varies extremely widely in any particular storm. Depending on the direction the storm comes in from, and it's windspeed at various altitudes, and it's width, it may or may not be redirected or funnelled around or thru various mountain areas. Some areas are much more likely to get a lot of rain and thunderstorms, like the southeast valley (tempe, mesa, chandler, etc) and parts in that general direction (which can, but does not always, include the main airport, for the storms). Areas like metro phoenix, where I live, are less likely to get much rain or thunderstorms; it's a more "protected" area in general from most directions.

I haven't looked up what rainfall was recorded in various publicly-viewable private weatherstations around the valley, but there are some weather report articles that mention "1 to 3 inches" in various places. I don't know how reliable / accurate the doppler radar is at gauging rainfall amounts, so don't know how "real" the rainfall amounts I listed before are--they're just what I saw in the local radar site during the storm.


Tucson, southeast of here, had a heck of a snowstorm in the city itself (rarely gets anything except on the mountains around there, and not a lot of that). Flagstaff had a record snowfall; I forget by how much. Scottsdale (northeast part of the valley) got snow, too, as did a number of other areas around the valley edges.

My brother said there was even snowfall here in the valley some places this morning (or yesterday morning? I forget which..it's been naptime for hours...) but it didnt' stick. I haven't verified that.

We've had several mornings in the past week or so that were so foggy around dawnish that you couldn't see more than a few feet at most, sometimes not even clearly see your hand at a fully-extended arm. Didnt' last very long, but was eerie while happening. Also happened at night, 3-4am, a couple of times. (Jelly likes to come "tell" me about everything that happens outside...no matter what time it is. :/ )

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Feb 25 2019 2:06pm

They just updated my forecast:
Today
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 55. Breezy, with a south wind 24 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Tonight
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 53. Windy, with a south wind 22 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
Tuesday
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 58. Breezy, with a south wind 23 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
Tuesday Night
Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 4am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 53. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Wednesday
Showers likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. South wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
My house tends to be closer to the higher numbers, so possibly 10" or so. Ground is fully saturated already. Flooding is predicted on the Napa and Russian Rivers.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Feb 25 2019 6:34pm

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » Feb 25 2019 11:40pm

Yesterday the forecast had rain for late this week, but no sign of it now:
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming northeast after midnight.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 75. East wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. West southwest wind around 5 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. West southwest wind around 5 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Southwest wind around 5 mph.

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by tomjasz » Feb 26 2019 4:48am

35" of snow in 3 weeks! More on the way!
Thanks Justin_le we're here thanks to you. All the best to the mods for their tireless work keeping it on an even keel.

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Feb 26 2019 10:19am

tomjasz wrote:
Feb 26 2019 4:48am
35" of snow in 3 weeks! More on the way!
I don't miss shoveling snow.

It was too dark to accurately read the rain gauge this morning as I headed to work, but looked like around 3" so far. It could possibly overflow by the time I get home.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Feb 26 2019 7:41pm

Well, gauge didn't overflow, but was getting close. 5.1" since yesterday and still coming down. Flood advisory in effect. I was super lucky today on the walking section of both commutes where it was just sprinkling lightly.
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