la Nina rears her ugly head

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The fingers   100 GW

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 28 2018 1:06am

Now the chance for rain Monday night is up to 40%. :?
The Low doing some pineapple picking on the way to the left coast:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 28 2018 7:11pm

Now chance of showers is 50%, with amounts of between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of rain predicted for the storm. :roll:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 29 2018 2:58am

Starting to look like the real deal, 60% chance. :mrgreen:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » Apr 29 2018 8:29pm

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Here's the satellite view of the spring villain.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/fd/rbtop.html
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » Apr 30 2018 8:48am

It actually rained on me yesterday but there was nothing in the forecast. It was only a trace but really rained for a few minutes.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 01 2018 11:08am

 Forecast
Today
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then showers after 11pm. Low around 47. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 59. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 02 2018 1:43am

The latest 00Z WRFEMS run has dramatically reduced the forecast precip over the region tonight. But the 00Z run of the NAM and the latest HRRR keep showers going over the San Bernardino Mts and even coastal San Diego County tonight with this feature, so even though amounts are light, the threat of rain and mountain snow continues into Wednesday morning although snowfall amounts reaching Advisory level look doubtful at this point. The snow level should be 5000 to 5500 FT. No changes to the current forecast for now despite the lower precip amounts now in the forecast. LAXQPSSGX has been updated. From previous discussion... One last shortwave will move across our area Wednesday morning. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage, and will be a little heavier due to an increase in mid-level moisture. Snow levels will hover around 6500 ft today and dip to 5500 ft tonight. Snow accumulations will mainly be 1-3 inches above 5500 ft, however up to 6 inches are possible where stronger showers develop. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas above 5500 ft in the San Bernardino and Riverside County Mountains. High-res models show showers decreasing in coverage by Wednesday afternoon, and ending by late Wednesday evening.

That old familiar smell again. Dramatically reduced, doubtful, lower amounts, decreasing, ending, wonk, wonk, wonk...... :(
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 02 2018 7:22am

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
************************************************************************ :)
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 02 2018 8:36pm

STATION ---------------PRECIP(IN) ----------ELEVATION(FT)
HEMET VALLE VISTA --------0.14 ----------------2050

Total as of 1:17 pm, enough to turn the sprinklers off. :mrgreen:
Still misting outside, but mostly the area has been drying out. Over 90°f forecast for Saturday. :oops:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » May 04 2018 2:26am

Predicted 107F+ for saturday, and at least 103 for Sunday. With summer temps in spring, I dont want to think about what itll be like in summer.

If temps are 15 degrees higher than normal now, that could bring summer temps up to potentially 130F+ on the hottest days. :(

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by wineboyrider » May 04 2018 10:48am

Been relatively cool here lately, but dry and windy. The fire danger is real in the forests around us.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by LockH » May 05 2018 10:54pm

NOAA Launches Drone Sailboats to Monitor El Nino


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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » May 06 2018 11:25pm

Saturday was around 103F, and today was over 107F (its still 98F out there now, 930pm at night). TOmmorrow says 101, but theyve been under actual by a few degrees each day so far, so itll probably be hotter htan Saturday was (hopefully not as hot as today).

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 06 2018 11:48pm

Temps in the high 80s to low 90s for the rest of the week.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Calm wind.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 92. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 92.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 86.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 82.
Friday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Saturday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 86.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 55.
Sunday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 86.

Cut off low out in the Pacific, but no more rain in the forecast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 10 2018 1:09am

The Wonky Weather Service Waffles on the forecast, now predicting rain on the weekend. :?
Friday Night
A slight chance of showers after 11pm. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 52. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers before 11am. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Here's the full disk view of the East Pacific:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/fd/rbtop.html

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 917 PM PDT Wed May 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will move into the Great Basin on Friday, then weaken through early next week. This will bring a noticeable cooling trend through Saturday, especially inland. The marine layer will be deepening, especially this weekend. Low clouds will move all the way to the coastal mountain slopes. There is even a slight chance of showers or patchy drizzle west of the mountains Friday night and Saturday night. Winds will increase over the mountains and across the deserts late Thursday through Friday. A low pressure trough will persistent over the West through much of next week, keeping the weather cool. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... The IR satellite imagery at 9 PM PDT showed marine clouds over the inner coastal waters reaching north as far north as O.C. The 00Z Miramar sounding had a 9 degree C inversion based near 1500 FT MSL. This was a bit deeper than last evening, but no eddy winds were indicated. The sfc pressure gradients were accelerating onshore KSAN to the deserts at 7-8 MBS. Peak westerly winds of 25-35 MPH were reported near the desert passes. No forecast changes this evening. From previous discussion... The weather pattern is taking a change. A trough pattern will become established over the region, leading to noticeable cooling along with a deeper marine layer and even light rain prospects. A closed upper low lies off British Colombia. This feature will move inland and southeast to south to lie eventually over the Great Basin by Friday and will persist there through the upcoming weekend. As it does so, westerly winds will increase locally with gusty winds developing over the mountain ridge tops to the deserts slopes. Nothing too strong though. Still, some blowing dust will be possible. The trends since yesterday have been for a deeper trough and slightly closer to the area. This could actually allow for drizzle or even a few light showers as the marine layer depth increases to over 4000 feet. The opportunity for any rain looks to be highest Friday night and Saturday night, so added a slight chance of light showers and drizzle to the forecast then. Any rainfall amounts will be light/a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth of an inch from the coast to the lower coastal mountain slopes. Temperature changes will be noticeable, especially over the deserts. 90s and 100s will be replaced by 70s and 80s this weekend. Most of the metropolitan areas this weekend will see highs only in the 60s. A trough pattern will persist through next week. Global models are in agreement on this. There will be slow warming of temperatures as heights slowly rise, but another trough is shown by GFS and EC moving into the state during the middle and latter part of next week. EC is much stronger. This would stop and even reverse the warming trend by midweek and potentially bring a period of drizzle and strong winds to the mountains and deserts.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 12 2018 3:57am

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
******************************************* :|

Overnight
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
A chance of rain before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Light south wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 13 2018 9:56pm

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_g ... AN&wfo=sgx
Cooler than normal lately. Chomper, the Global Warming Tortoise, is having none of it. He hasn't been seen for a while, tending to bury himself and semi-hibernate (Aestivation) when it is too hot or too cold.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 14 2018 7:23pm

Wednesday

Patchy
Drizzle and
Patchy Fog
then Sunny

:?

Mini low spinning counter clockwise due west of Pt. Conception seems to be the culprit:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » May 14 2018 11:21pm

No rain here, but well below normal temps and really windy. I shouldn't complain. At least it's not over 100F.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 17 2018 2:12pm

Might reach 80°f on Sunday, then cooler next week.
.SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will persist across the West Coast through the weekend and then deepen early next week. This will bring onshore flow and a deep marine layer that mixes out each day for clearing. The low clouds will be more widespread Friday and Saturday morning due to an eddy in the California bight. Early next week there is a chance for showers in the mountains and High Deserts as a deeper closed upper low moves over Southern California. :mrgreen:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 18 2018 11:14pm

10% chance of patchy drizzle Sunday night and Monday morning. :roll:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by fechter » May 19 2018 1:32pm

Just lots of wind here. The hills are already turning brown. Next thing will be fires.
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by amberwolf » May 19 2018 1:45pm

I'm having to water a lot more than usual, with higher temperatures and none of the rain we normally get the last couple months.

Not watering grass and stuff, just trees and lantana. Trees are getting most of it, so they grow faster and make more shade so that water needs will be less at ground level. Gonna be a couple years at least before most of the yard has some shade, front and back. Figure another five or so and the whole yard should be covered fairly well for most of the day (except for winter after the leaves fall).

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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 19 2018 10:31pm

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
******************************************* :|

Glad to get a little light drizzle as I had to turn the sprinklers off for repairs. :mrgreen:
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Re: la Nina rears her ugly head

Post by The fingers » May 20 2018 7:23pm

Ten percent chance of patchy drizzle for the next couple of days, with up to a 30% chance of thunderstorms in the mountains. Maybe some of that might spill over into the valley. :mrgreen:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-ft.html
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