Tony Seba: Clean Disruption of Energy and Transport

Hey,

just wanted to share this very interesting video of a presentation of Stanford University's Tony Seba on his research on technology disruptions and how the speed of adopting new technologies and business models has been repeatedly underestimated in the past. Must watch for those who believe the EV-/Renewable Energies-Revolution is not going to happen :wink:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

Best regards,

Jens

Although quite long, this presentation gets interesting after about the first 18 minutes.

However I think his assessment of the cost of buying and owning an electric car conveniently overlooks the cost of battery replacement every 5 or 10 years. The cost of a replacement battery is so high, and the lifespan so short that after 10 years the car is worthless because no one wants to pay for a new battery. However a gasoline car can live and be repaired for 50 years easy.

Later on he definitely said something suspect. He said that personal car ownership would end because it just wouldn't make economic sense. While I'm sure he's right in that it costs more to own a car than not to, people won't stop owning cars just to save money. Owning a car is more convenient than using a shared car. If you can afford a car and a place to put it, you'd rather own a car than share one.

Guess I disagree, the first part about disrupting new technologies and them being repeatedly underestimated in the past fascinates me most. Autonomous driving electric cars charged by renewable energies will be ridiculously cheap per mile you use them, also because of them being on the road 24/7 - for those who just need a car to get from A to B, owning a car for themselves would be much more expensive.

On ICE vs. electric car, maintenance and repair cost, cost per mile, etc.: I'm from Germany, so I guess I shouldn't talk like this :wink: , but IMHO we'll lose a lot of jobs because of car maker managers who can't think outside their box: An ICE car has about 2000 moving parts, an electric car has about 20 moving parts. There was a survey on the top 10 items that needed repair last year in an ICE car, if you owned an electric car none of those repairs would have applied to you except one (will look up the link, can't find it right now) - less moving parts means much lower maintenance costs!

On the battery: Check out this link and let the numbers speak for themselves, survey of Tesla owners, the mileage they put on their Tesla and how much of the original capacity they've left after 100,000 miles and more (most over 90%, see "S" on the spreadsheet for "remaining original capacity"):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKPsg/htmlview#gid=154312675

Best Regards,

Jens

Bamboo said:

for those who just need a car to get from A to B, owning a car for themselves would be much more expensive.

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You're saying the same thing Tony Seba said, that it's cheaper to share a car than to own one. And I agree. But we don't just do everything that's cheaper, otherwise we'd all live out of a cardboard box. People own cars because it's convenient and makes our lives more pleasant, not because it's cheaper.

In fact, imagine for a second the condition of the interior of these self-driving shared cars. It's going to be like a garbage pail in there, smelling of urine and booze. The seats will be covered in scunge and bodily fluids, I can easily imagine that NO ONE will want to use an unmanned, shared vehicle. I know, everyone imagines the cars will be clean and perfect, but the reality is because they have no driver (like a conventional taxi) to watch the occupants, the occupants will leave the worst mess you can imagine.

^^^^ I agree izits.
Many of these EVevangelists have a very idealistic outlook and forget the realities of the human species.

Izits said:

In fact, imagine for a second the condition of the interior of these self-driving shared cars. It's going to be like a garbage pail in there, smelling of urine and booze. The seats will be covered in scunge and bodily fluids, I can easily imagine that NO ONE will want to use an unmanned, shared vehicle. I know, everyone imagines the cars will be clean and perfect, but the reality is because they have no driver (like a conventional taxi) to watch the occupants, the occupants will leave the worst mess you can imagine.

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Plenty of people use public bathrooms - where release of bodily fluids is the goal, not an accident - and 99% of them are not in the condition you describe above. People are generally decent.

As one of the people that gets to clean them, most of those bathrooms only stay that way because the people working at the places those bathrooms are at keep them clean.

Some places they stay clean for days, some only hours (or less) between cleanings.


Not saying the cars will become the same way, but given the state of public transportation (buses, light rail) here, when they don't have sufficient personnel (or budget for them) to keep them clean, they get stinky and messy.


That said, I'd agree that if someone can afford their own, they'll do just that. They may also use shared transportation, but I doubt it would be their preferred method. Cars aren't just a way to get around for a fair number of people; they're a personal statement either of wealth or of style.


Bicycles are the same thing to those of us that choose them instead of (or in addition to) cars. (imagine *me* on a plain old bicycle. :lol

amberwolf said:

(imagine *me* on a plain old bicycle. :lol

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I imagine you would look like Hercules; riding with no hands, carrying 80lb bags of dog food on front and rear racks, with a Saint Bernard balanced on each shoulder. :lol:

The fingers said:

amberwolf said:

(imagine *me* on a plain old bicycle. :lol

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I imagine you would look like Hercules; ........... :lol:

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The important thing is that we'll have more, better, and less expensive options.

This was a great video and it has me contemplating the future. Will rail be expanded? What about mag-lev since power will be less expensive? How long will it take to get rid of the jackasses in pickup trucks here in the Midwest?

[EDIT]
That last one is reference to Mark Beaumont's recent 79 day trip around the World on bicycle where someone here in the Midwest tried to run him off the road with a pickup truck, and my own experience.

amberwolf said:

Some places they stay clean for days, some only hours (or less) between cleanings.

Not saying the cars will become the same way, but given the state of public transportation (buses, light rail) here, when they don't have sufficient personnel (or budget for them) to keep them clean, they get stinky and messy.

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You can buy a ticket for public transport with cash and be anonymous, same with using public toilets, but when you use an autonomously driving car and leave a mess they will know who you are and not let them use their services again.
In bigger towns in Europe car sharing companies are doing well, same here: the company knows who's currently using their cars and kick you out if the next customer finds a messy car. No person from the company needs to check the car between two customers using them (only sometimes), every customer makes sure they don't leave their trash or spill food so they can continue to use the cars.

Edit: When I grew up, it was like you were an idiot when you didn't have a driving licence when you were 18, nowadays it's with quite a lot of people who could drive a car don't care, it's often considered cool to not have a car...imho.

Best regards,

Jens

Izits said:

You're saying the same thing Tony Seba said, that it's cheaper to share a car than to own one. And I agree. But we don't just do everything that's cheaper, otherwise we'd all live out of a cardboard box. People own cars because it's convenient and makes our lives more pleasant, not because it's cheaper.

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Completely agree, if you want your own car, you'll keep it for your freedom. I will always own a campervan - buy food, go to a nice place and have free short term holiday...wouldn't want anyone else to use it. :?

Best.regards, Jens

Couldn't find the link, will post when/if I find it