Next gen 3.4 Ahr Panasonic 18650

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Hillhater

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From http://jackrickard.blogspot.com/
In March of 2012, Panasonic begins the production run of a brazillion of their new NNP 3.4Ah cell. This is there New Nickel Platform. It's actually a Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide cathode material with a carbon anode. And the thing carries 12.24 wH of energy in a 46 gram package. This is something like 266 wH per kilogram. By contrast, the CALB or Winston type cells are more like 109 wH/kg in their optimum size.

Ergo the 300 mile Tesla Model S.

Cycle life to the industry "traditional" 80% of original capacity is somewhere in the 500-800 cycle range. Not good. But if you look to 70% as the mark, it gets much better as the deterioration curve flattens out in a very unusual fashion. You're looking at well over 2000 cycles to that level.

These are not here yet. But I do not classify them as unobtanium per se. They have good prospects for being available subsequent to March 2012. Tesla has contracted for enough of these cells to do 80,000 cars over four years. That's 640 million cells. As it will also be the highest energy density of any 18650 form factor cell, it will undoubtedly be popular in a number of other applications - flashlights if no where else. And so we have a truly MASS market battery cell here. That brings in economies of scale.
..Panasonic has already announced plans for 2013 to bump this very 3.4Ah cell to 4.0Ah by using a silicon alloy anode in place of the carbon anode in this cell, for example. But if a fire ensued in the battery market, there are plenty of players and plenty of advances to come. I think Moore's law is alive an dwell in Batteryville. And a car with a 1000 mile range is not inherently a preposterous notion.
Click to expand...
 
Hillhater said:
Tesla has contracted for enough of these cells to do 80,000 cars over four years. That's 640 million cells. As it will also be the highest energy density of any 18650 form factor cell, it will undoubtedly be popular in a number of other applications
Click to expand...
Car battery pack out of 18650 cells? :D It is a joke, right?
 
4AH 18650's? Really? damnnn....

I would be a happy camper to even get my hands on some of the 3.4AH stuff. Is it only 1C? who cares! Build a 40AH pack that weighs as much as a 25AH RC lipo pack. Ditch that heavy, outdated RC lipo... :lol: :D

High density, low C cells are a dream for long distance riding. What i'd give to have my range anxiety go bye-bye..
 
parabellum said:
Car battery pack out of 18650 cells? :D It is a joke, right?
Click to expand...

The tesla pack has always been built with 18650's. It has an incredibly complex control/monitoring system for each and every little cell. Wiki tesla, it is impressive.
 
parabellum said:
Car battery pack out of 18650 cells? :D It is a joke, right?
Click to expand...

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/most-coddled-automotive-battery-ever
...Sixty-nine cells are wired in parallel to create bricks. Ninety-nine bricks are connected in series to create sheets, and 11 sheets are inserted into the pack casing. In total, this creates a pack made up of 6,831 cells.
Click to expand...
 
That company is well known to sell junk/recycled/b-grade <1C cells wrapped in a fancy label.
OK for flashlight use. For an ebike pack though.. no no way.

( read reviews of ultrafire and trustfire batteries if you don't believe me. )
 
Hillhater said:
From http://jackrickard.blogspot.com/
In March of 2012, Panasonic begins the production run of a brazillion of their new NNP 3.4Ah cell. This is there New Nickel Platform. It's actually a Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide cathode material with a carbon anode. And the thing carries 12.24 wH of energy in a 46 gram package. This is something like 266 wH per kilogram. By contrast, the CALB or Winston type cells are more like 109 wH/kg in their optimum size.

Ergo the 300 mile Tesla Model S.

Cycle life to the industry "traditional" 80% of original capacity is somewhere in the 500-800 cycle range. Not good. But if you look to 70% as the mark, it gets much better as the deterioration curve flattens out in a very unusual fashion. You're looking at well over 2000 cycles to that level.

These are not here yet. But I do not classify them as unobtanium per se. They have good prospects for being available subsequent to March 2012. Tesla has contracted for enough of these cells to do 80,000 cars over four years. That's 640 million cells. As it will also be the highest energy density of any 18650 form factor cell, it will undoubtedly be popular in a number of other applications - flashlights if no where else. And so we have a truly MASS market battery cell here. That brings in economies of scale.
..Panasonic has already announced plans for 2013 to bump this very 3.4Ah cell to 4.0Ah by using a silicon alloy anode in place of the carbon anode in this cell, for example. But if a fire ensued in the battery market, there are plenty of players and plenty of advances to come. I think Moore's law is alive an dwell in Batteryville. And a car with a 1000 mile range is not inherently a preposterous notion.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...


It looks good if you don t realise that after 500 cycles the cells 3.4 ah is not that anymore but 80 percent of that... 2.72 ah and at going to 2000 cycle it will be 2.38 ah so it is not that great.

at 4 ah not bad it will be 3.2 ah at 500 cycles and 2.8 ah going up at 2000 cycles
 
slayer said:
Hillhater said:
From http://jackrickard.blogspot.com/
In March of 2012, Panasonic begins the production run of a brazillion of their new NNP 3.4Ah cell. This is there New Nickel Platform. It's actually a Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide cathode material with a carbon anode. And the thing carries 12.24 wH of energy in a 46 gram package. This is something like 266 wH per kilogram. By contrast, the CALB or Winston type cells are more like 109 wH/kg in their optimum size.

Ergo the 300 mile Tesla Model S.

Cycle life to the industry "traditional" 80% of original capacity is somewhere in the 500-800 cycle range. Not good. But if you look to 70% as the mark, it gets much better as the deterioration curve flattens out in a very unusual fashion. You're looking at well over 2000 cycles to that level.

These are not here yet. But I do not classify them as unobtanium per se. They have good prospects for being available subsequent to March 2012. Tesla has contracted for enough of these cells to do 80,000 cars over four years. That's 640 million cells. As it will also be the highest energy density of any 18650 form factor cell, it will undoubtedly be popular in a number of other applications - flashlights if no where else. And so we have a truly MASS market battery cell here. That brings in economies of scale.
..Panasonic has already announced plans for 2013 to bump this very 3.4Ah cell to 4.0Ah by using a silicon alloy anode in place of the carbon anode in this cell, for example. But if a fire ensued in the battery market, there are plenty of players and plenty of advances to come. I think Moore's law is alive an dwell in Batteryville. And a car with a 1000 mile range is not inherently a preposterous notion.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...


It looks good if you don t realise that after 500 cycles the cells 3.4 ah is not that anymore but 80 percent of that... 2.72 ah and at going to 2000 cycle it will be 2.38 ah so it is not that great.

at 4 ah not bad it will be 3.2 ah at 500 cycles and 2.8 ah going up at 2000 cycles
Click to expand...


That's not how cell aging works. Also, liquid electrolyte cells generally fail from too high of impedance to supply the load anymore rather than loss of capacity.

Regardless though, Panasonic released this road map for 3.4Ah cells and then 4Ah with silicon anodes in something like 2008 (you can see my own and others posts about it on candle-power-forums) I believe they were slated for late 2010 release originally. They've been making them in the lab for years, so it's just a matter of getting consistent and cost effective mfg to release them. As far as the 4Ah silicon anode cells, the best in the world right now sadly have under 100cycle effective lifespan. Very sadly, many silicon anode cells right now are at <80% capacity after 10 cycles, and prone to internal shorts due to the huge expansion/contraction of the anode thickness causing the post-formation structure to be crushed in charging.

The cycle life claims are Jack Rickard just pulling WAG (wild ass guess) numbers out of the air and calling it "traditional", as if a previous totally unrelated previous cathode structure also housed in an 18650 shaped can somehow relates to how he thinks an NCA cell will perform. In the EV industry right now, nobody is even looking at cells with a life of under 1,500-2,500cycles minimum. If this cell is being developed as an EV cell, it will have 4-digit cycle life for certain, (but I suspect it's 99% being developed for laptops, and Tesla will jump on it in a second because it leverages the existing massive expense they've dumped into making a bad idea work well).
 
not that i want to defend Jack but since i had a lot of time to spare and a lot of internet site banned from my work (hospital security) i was watching one rare sites that are allowed video ...and WAG is absolutely not from him and you will know that it comes from one of his follower that wrote to him and bothered him enough that he started to talk about them to satisfy that guy.

Also when they claim 80 % capacity after 500 cycles it means exactly that ...you can add what happens to it like you say but why say it s not how cells aging works?
 
liveforphysics said:
just pulling WAG (wild ass guess) numbers
Click to expand...
:lol: :lol: :lol: hadn't heard that before.

liveforphysics said:
and Tesla will jump on it in a second because it leverages the existing massive expense they've dumped into making a bad idea work well).
Click to expand...

+1 Well put. I love the Tesla, and they proved to the world that a beautiful, high performance/range electric car can be manufactured for sale, but as a guy who prefers the simplest/most elegant solution, it isn't a good fit for me.

-JD
 
slayer said:
Also when they claim 80 % capacity after 500 cycles it means exactly that ...you can add what happens to it like you say but why say it s not how cells aging works?
Click to expand...


It's not a remotely linear curve with respect to capacity.

A cell that reaches 80% after 500 cycles, doesn't reach 60% at 1000cycles. Most EV cells are unusable for the application at ~90% due to the impedence making it impossible to carry the needed load. But anyways, a cell that reaches 80% at 500cycles might be at 90% at 400cycles, then 80% at 500 cycles, and then 50% at 600 cycles. But that 50% doesn't matter, because it's impossible to supply the current demand of the vehicle anymore.
 
I'm very satisfied with Panasonic 2.6Ah and 2.4Ah cells. Can't wait for the 3.4 cells. Hopefully early 2012 will be real. So far this 3.4 cell has been silently delayed many times.

A 6lbs, 10s6p pack would have 755wh at 1c. Drawing at average of 0.5c, it might provides up to 800wh.
 
liveforphysics said:
A cell that reaches 80% after 500 cycles, doesn't reach 60% at 1000cycles. Most EV cells are unusable for the application at ~90% due to the impedence making it impossible to carry the needed load. But anyways, a cell that reaches 80% at 500cycles might be at 90% at 400cycles, then 80% at 500 cycles, and then 50% at 600 cycles. But that 50% doesn't matter, because it's impossible to supply the current demand of the vehicle anymore.
Click to expand...

This is something that needs to be stated on the forum way more often. So let me touch on it a bit here..

The constant C rate of a battery needs to be overspecced for the application to account for the fact that the battery's internal resistance rises as it ages. Eventually that 20C battery is a 10C, then a 5C, then 1C.. Run those cells too hot 'n saggy and you will accelerate their demise exponentially near the end of their lives.

I can see this as being a BIG problem with the Tesla cars down the road. I bet the battery pack performs like crap in cold weather, and at half of it's lifespan, it's ready to throw in the towel & start tripping whatever low voltage cutoff they have in the car's battery design.

As for a giant pack of 18650's running a car, i think it is a hilariously wrong way to go about making a battery pack. I'd build one if the cells were really something special for my eBike, but for a car.. omg.. imagine the bill for replacing a few cells here 'n there.. imagine how complex the interconnections and BMS is.. it baffles the mind.
 
I dont know where Jack got his info from, but it wasn't a WAG,...he seems to have a source of data and posted this to support his statement.
Cycle life to the industry "traditional" 80% of original capacity is somewhere in the 500-800 cycle range. Not good. But if you look to 70% as the mark, it gets much better as the deterioration curve flattens out in a very unusual fashion. You're looking at well over 2000 cycles to that level.
Click to expand...
%2BPANASONICCYCLELIFE.jpg
 
Hillhater said:
I dont know where Jack got his info from, but it wasn't a WAG,...he seems to have a source of data and posted this to support his statement.
Cycle life to the industry "traditional" 80% of original capacity is somewhere in the 500-800 cycle range. Not good. But if you look to 70% as the mark, it gets much better as the deterioration curve flattens out in a very unusual fashion. You're looking at well over 2000 cycles to that level.
Click to expand...
%2BPANASONICCYCLELIFE.jpg
Click to expand...



The NCR18650 is a totally different chemistry.

It's like saying, that LTO cell (which also comes in 18650 from panasonic) gets 20,000cycles to 80% capacity. Therefore this other 18650 sized cell Panasonic has been talking about for years will also be 20,000cycles to 80% capacity.
Or, this LiCo NCR18650 has 500cycles to 80%, therefore this other 18650 sized cell with unrelated chemistry will also be 500cycles to 80%, because it's also in a round shape of similar dimensions. (or whatever justification somebody wants to try to infer between completely different chemistry cells)
 
neptronix said:
liveforphysics said:
A cell that reaches 80% after 500 cycles, doesn't reach 60% at 1000cycles. Most EV cells are unusable for the application at ~90% due to the impedence making it impossible to carry the needed load. But anyways, a cell that reaches 80% at 500cycles might be at 90% at 400cycles, then 80% at 500 cycles, and then 50% at 600 cycles. But that 50% doesn't matter, because it's impossible to supply the current demand of the vehicle anymore.
Click to expand...

This is something that needs to be stated on the forum way more often. So let me touch on it a bit here..

The constant C rate of a battery needs to be overspecced for the application to account for the fact that the battery's internal resistance rises as it ages. Eventually that 20C battery is a 10C, then a 5C, then 1C.. Run those cells too hot 'n saggy and you will accelerate their demise exponentially near the end of their lives.

I can see this as being a BIG problem with the Tesla cars down the road. I bet the battery pack performs like crap in cold weather, and at half of it's lifespan, it's ready to throw in the towel & start tripping whatever low voltage cutoff they have in the car's battery design.

As for a giant pack of 18650's running a car, i think it is a hilariously wrong way to go about making a battery pack. I'd build one if the cells were really something special for my eBike, but for a car.. omg.. imagine the bill for replacing a few cells here 'n there.. imagine how complex the interconnections and BMS is.. it baffles the mind.
Click to expand...

Imagine having 8Ah 18650 cells in a few years (the 3.4 is the NCR18650B I think and the 4.0 will be the NCR18650D)....you're better off having a bunch of little bombs that won't cause a domino effect. The TESLA design is future proof and ingenious, but prismatic is obviously better for all out performance. In a huge high voltage car pack you can use thin foil batteries with much higher energy density as you have so many cells paralleled. Small cells will likely always costs less because there is a lot of fallout in manufacture, and in general an increase cell size increases the fallout because you have a larger probability material defects and/or imperfect conditioning. All TESLA cell assembly into packs is done by robots and the BMS doesn't connect to each and every cell so its not really that complicated. It's also not that hard to swap subpacks. I do worry about an increase in sag (and loss in efficiency) once they hit their 70% plateau though, but maybe it is a non issue as the cells are warmed (so cold weather is a non issue).
 
One of the main reasons Tesla chose the 18650 cell was safety.
Each cell has inbuilt short circuit protection and thermal overload protection.
Given the technology that was available when it was conceived ( 2003/4 ?) it probably seemed a prudent choice !
 
Hillhater said:
One of the main reasons Tesla chose the 18650 cell was safety.
Each cell has inbuilt short circuit protection and thermal overload protection.
Given the technology that was available when it was conceived ( 2003/4 ?) it probably seemed a prudent choice !
Click to expand...

Actually the two main reasons Tesla choose and continues to chose the 18650 is Cost and Energy Density. No prismatic cell was or is as energy dense or as in-expensive. These words are straight from a Tesla Battery Testing Engineer.

I would also wager to guess these cells are ready for production otherwise I think the 300mile Model S will be late...and I really dont want that to happen
 
Hillhater said:
One of the main reasons Tesla chose the 18650 cell was safety.
Each cell has inbuilt short circuit protection and thermal overload protection.
Given the technology that was available when it was conceived ( 2003/4 ?) it probably seemed a prudent choice !
Click to expand...


Its cost, and cost alone that Tesla uses the 18650.

I think its down to $180/kWhr. If you're making a 50Kwhr pack, its worth going through a ton of hassle, adding lots if weight and complexities, if your cell cost is cut in half.
 
liveforphysics said:
I think its down to $180/kWhr.
Click to expand...

Assuming 3.4Ah cells: 1,000wh / (3.7V nomimal) / 3.4Ah = 79.5cells
$180/79.5 = $2.26/cell!!! That's ridiculously cheap. I'd gladly pay twice as much.
 
liveforphysics said:
Its cost, and cost alone that Tesla uses the 18650. .
Click to expand...

Im sure cost was a major consideration,
....but from their own publication .
. http://webarchive.teslamotors.com/display_data/TeslaRoadsterBatterySystem.pdf
...The power and energy capabilities of the pack make it essential that safety be considered a primary criterion in the pack’s design and architecture. ...
.....We started our design by purposely picking a small form factor battery cell. This cell is called
the 18650 .....
.... Due to its small size, the cell contains a limited amount of energy. If a failure
event occurs with this cell, the effect will be much less than that expected from a cell many times
larger......
Click to expand...
It goes on to describe several other features of the 18650 that were considered as safety factors.
They even mention the fire risks of LiFe cells and i am sure they were aware of the financial and business consequences of a major battery failure/fire . !
They probably could have made it cheaper, but safety was big in their mind. ( for their own legal protection i suspect !)
 
liveforphysics said:
just pulling WAG (wild ass guess) numbers out of the air...
Click to expand...

One does not pull WAG or SWAG numbers out of the air... they get pulled out of the :shock: from whence they came...
 
texaspyro said:
liveforphysics said:
just pulling WAG (wild ass guess) numbers out of the air...
Click to expand...

One does not pull WAG or SWAG numbers out of the air... they get pulled out of the :shock: from whence they came...
Click to expand...

I think Jack has a copy of the ncr18650b UL report that reports 266Wh/Kg. The cells were supposed to be closer to 300Wh/kg so I highly doubt he pulled the number out his ass.
 
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