Tesla Model 3

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Apr 12 2019 4:45pm

larsb wrote:
Apr 12 2019 2:28pm
Tesla will eventually be losing the automotive battle. Sure they are hyped and disruptive today but the established car makers are on the hunt. Any of the big ones can make a better car package once the electric solutions have reached a more mature state.

Doesn't matter if you were first once someone else is better..
Definitely. No car company stays on top, or even competitive, forever. It could take ten years, or it could take sixty years. Right now Tesla has the lead in battery design, which is the one thing the Big 3 can't get quite right.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by liveforphysics » Apr 12 2019 4:46pm

Ianhill wrote:
Apr 12 2019 4:08pm
I won't rule tesla out they could branch out just like toyota has with Lexus and turn the model s x y and 3 into a luxury chain and move a new brand at the cheaper end of the market utilizing components from the brother brand but with a raspi for the infotainment system and cut throat self driving system just basic pedestrian safety and braking etc if they pulled that one out the bag in a yaris size car then they will dominate bit these current wagons are to luxury to hit a wide enough audience.
Not practical to do any self driving that isn't the state of the art available at the time no matter what cost it adds to the vehicle. This is because it's a life safety thing, and the liability of not doing the best you could offer (within practical bounds) at the time is the minimum you can offer while a system is still in the infancy portion of the development curve.


There seems to be some big confusion about what happens when "The big players" get involved and that it will give them some advantage over Tesla.

Tesla is already using mfg tech that's already better optimized than what the major automotive players are using.
Tesla is already as or more vertically integrated in supply chain for the entire vehicle than the other major automotive players.
Tesla already has the TIER1 OEM supply chain access and supply chain pricing the major OEM's get.
Tesla has an installed and incredibly powerful supercharger network, other major OEM's are years behind just in permitting for sites.

Most importantly, Tesla already has ~10years of a whole-assed EV focus as a company.

The car companies today employing poison-spraying contraption glorifying folks in upper-level decision making positions in their company will be car brands you occasionally see in museums.

The sportscar/hypercar companies that haven't already abandoned ICE related development entirely will fall out of performance relevance to become symbolic gesture relics of what people with low standards once thought was fast.

In just the next few years, the vehicle market will perceive the farting noises of the ICE engine will become representative of adjectives like "weak, toxic, smelly, obnoxious, uninspiring, pointless-complexity and hassles." At this time, no matter how big the brand, if they are tying their brand to products people view with these adjectives, then their brand won't be valuable anymore in consumer eyes anyways.

This is why I don't see the other big automotive players as a threat to Tesla. They will all of course try to make a last minute whole-assed effort at becoming EV companies as consumer demand shifts from changing consumer awareness. However, when they shift, they aren't shifting to any improved mfg tech, or any improved supply chain, and they aren't shifting to greater vertical integration. They will just be starting the race a decade late to the line, but without any magical advantage to jump forward in mfg that Tesla isn't already leveraging themselves.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Apr 12 2019 5:08pm

liveforphysics wrote:
Apr 12 2019 4:46pm
In just the next few years, the vehicle market will perceive the farting noises of the ICE engine will become representative of adjectives like "weak, toxic, smelly, obnoxious, uninspiring, pointless-complexity and hassles." At this time, no matter how big the brand, if they are tying their brand to products people view with these adjectives, then their brand won't be valuable anymore in consumer eyes anyways.
Agreed.

However, one thing that will happen as EV's start to grow in number (to significant percentages of the total fleet) is that gas demand will drop. Gas will get cheaper, at least for a while. And that will mean that ICE cars are going to be the cheap option. And for the majority of vehicle buyers, "cheap" is a lot more important than the adjectives you describe above. The eco market will get a cheap ICE with a weak hybrid system and call it good; the good ol boys will get a big ICE truck and not have to fret over fuel costs. That will tend to put the brakes on EV rollout once the market hits about 30% EV's.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Ianhill » Apr 12 2019 5:10pm

I agree with your ideology but I do think there's alot more to it than car makers the oil companys and goverment played a big role in ev suppresion and I don't want to get into who done what as I was not there but it's been a travesty to humans just like many other shady areas that humans have a knack for hiding under the carpet.

Back on track if you look the car market it is broken into segments and the hyper car and luxury market has moved towards electric very easily there's large margin cars with owners that are looking for something special.

Then there's the average day folk that don't live in the city or a penthouse, car sharing is not an option they travel 50 miles a day on average it's these people that are hard to reach out to, we can say as much as we like about pollution but when you travel by ev and then take a flight quite often that poor person with a cheap petrol car traveling 10000 miles a years is only part of the issue not the full cause.

If all the rich adopt and the poor get no real impact then there will only be at best a 20% impact over the next few years it's all about driving that price down and getting cheap cars out that become second hand cars into a price range that joe bloggs can get his hands on and find it might not meet his every needs till the charging infrastructure gains strength but it's better than nothing and at the moment people have a choice of ice and no charge times or and technical jargon when they don't understand a kwh they just want a2b simple in a safe manner cheap as possible no idea of the implications of what they do this happens in it's millions everyday.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by larsb » Apr 12 2019 5:46pm

Tesla is already using mfg tech that's already better optimized than what the major automotive players are using.
Tesla is already as or more vertically integrated in supply chain for the entire vehicle than the other major automotive players.


we can check back in 2025 and see how it went :D

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Ianhill » Apr 12 2019 6:09pm

billvon wrote:
Apr 12 2019 5:08pm
liveforphysics wrote:
Apr 12 2019 4:46pm
In just the next few years, the vehicle market will perceive the farting noises of the ICE engine will become representative of adjectives like "weak, toxic, smelly, obnoxious, uninspiring, pointless-complexity and hassles." At this time, no matter how big the brand, if they are tying their brand to products people view with these adjectives, then their brand won't be valuable anymore in consumer eyes anyways.
Agreed.

However, one thing that will happen as EV's start to grow in number (to significant percentages of the total fleet) is that gas demand will drop. Gas will get cheaper, at least for a while. And that will mean that ICE cars are going to be the cheap option. And for the majority of vehicle buyers, "cheap" is a lot more important than the adjectives you describe above. The eco market will get a cheap ICE with a weak hybrid system and call it good; the good ol boys will get a big ICE truck and not have to fret over fuel costs. That will tend to put the brakes on EV rollout once the market hits about 30% EV's.
Spot on my price range allows me to consider a civic ima or prius around the £1000 range or buy a small 3 cylinder diesel both have similar tax and fuel costs at the moment but the cost of fuel is splitting in UK last year it was 2p apart per litre now it's 6p apart and growing so diesel will lose it's appeal through taxation while petrol is promoted not much incentive for the poor to go pure EV just yet as the discount incentive on a new car makes most sence to those that have decent wealth and that's a minority.

The prius looks the best bet it could be converted to pure ev in the future were as the civic is too weak and it only aids the engine never electric only but from stock they both have merits and decent mpg gains over a none stock car and the civic cam be had with a Manuel transmission heated seats luxury interior for a £1000 or so with loads of life left.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Apr 12 2019 8:21pm

Ianhill wrote:
Apr 12 2019 6:09pm
The prius looks the best bet it could be converted to pure ev in the future were as the civic is too weak and it only aids the engine never electric only
Note that the Prius Prime has a 30 mile EV-only range, which could cover 90% of the average US person's driving.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 12 2019 11:57pm

larsb wrote:
Apr 12 2019 5:46pm
Tesla is already using mfg tech that's already better optimized than what the major automotive players are using.
Tesla is already as or more vertically integrated in supply chain for the entire vehicle than the other major automotive players.


we can check back in 2025 and see how it went :D
Yes just as we are checking in now from 2014 and in 2014 we were checking in from 2009....

People have been preaching how Tesla is doomed since they started and all Tesla did was grow at a very impressive rate!
They have the most autopilot data because they have the most cars driving around as beta cars collecting data for HQ,
They have so many other Moats its not even funny.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by larsb » Apr 13 2019 1:04am

The difference is that in 2025 BEVs will be mainstream. The upper hand will be (mostly/totally?) gone. The electric cars aren't that advanced that they cannot be copied or made better by someone else.

We haven't seen yet if Tesla is able to scale their operation to large production capabilities either. If they don't then they won't be making a profit.

What speaks in their favor is the autonomous data, i think that whoever doesn't make the autonomous step will be gone. But then again: the lethal accident tesla had with the trailer would not have happened in an autonomous volvo prototype so you can ask: if the system is not better than this, what is then the use of all the gathered data?

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by TheBeastie » Apr 13 2019 5:23am

Like said before, Panasonic owns all of Tesla's cell making gear. And it's even in their partner contract that if Tesla can't sell the cells in its products then Panasonic can sell them to anyone else they want, and its now expected Panasonic is going to sell some lithium cells to Toyota!

https://twitter.com/BradMunchen/status/ ... 0191973376

2) Nikke article today actually quotes anonymous Pana executives, who're pissed b/c $TSLAQ missed the 5K/week M3 target twice last year, forcing Pana to downgrade their own guidance twice. Turns out this happened again in Q1'19, which is new info in terms of Pana's earnings.

3) Pana planned $200m EBIT in its Energy Div for fiscal year Mar'19. Nikkei reveals that Pana actually lost -$180m, which means that Q1'19 EBIT alone at Pana went from a plan of $175m to a loss of -$190m. That's a $365m delta in one quarter & why Pana is fuming. It gets worse.

4) Musk frequently calls up Pana CEO Tsuga, saying "lower your battery prices". This is obscene b/c Musk pushed Pana to invest $2bn for 35GWh in LiB capacity at Giga-1 for output of 500K Model 3s/year. Q1 M3 output of 252K annualized, is ~50% capute. Hence Pana's frustration.

5) Pana execs balked at Musk's China plans last July. "The growth trajectory these guys are envisioning is way too steep," said one Pana exec, which is why Pana isn't taking part in Shanghai Giga. Instead, they're turning to Toyota and this is where things get medieval.

6) The most salacious bit of today's Nikkei article is the insinuation that Pana might use Giga-1 to supply Toyota in the future. "Pana plans to lower exposure to Tesla, while deepening ties w/ Toyota. A new EV JV in 2020 w/ Toyota will include Pana's *worldwide* LiB operations".

7) This sounds outlandish, but note that Pana's contract w/ $TSLAQ for Giga-1 states that Pana can sell any unused LiBs by $TSLAQ to 3rd party customers. So ironically, Model 3's demise will lead to a new LiB supply source for Toyota. What a strange twist of things for $TSLAQ.

This is why this story is so serious, because Panasonic is LOSING money making cells for Tesla in the 100s of million$ of dollars and they are now officially sick of losing money.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... igafactory
https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/ ... story.html

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... -literally
Interesting bits from this article
The fatality rate for TSLA drivers is much higher than it is for other luxury cars.

as the demand from the enthusiastic portion of its customer base has already been satisfied. If Q1 is any indication, total annual global demand for the Model 3 is about 200,000 vehicles. We believe that TSLA’s poor reputation for quality and service and diminishing tax incentives are limiting broader demand.

Moreover, some combination of the availability of the cheaper Model 3 and emerging competition from Jaguar, Audi, Kia, Hyundai and others has crushed the demand for TSLA’s established high-end Model S and Model X. TSLA has responded with large price cuts, which to date have only generated minimal incremental demand. In 2018, the Models S and X contributed over $2.5 billion of gross profit. Given the price cuts and reduced demand, we believe TSLA will be lucky to achieve even $1 billion of gross profit from those models this year

Musk never admits the crisis in real time. We believe that right here, right now, the company appears to again be on the brink. The signs are everywhere, from the lack of demand, desperate price cutting, layoffs, closing-and-then-not-closing stores, closing service centers, cutting capex, rushed product announcements and a new effort to distract investors from the demand problem with hyperbole over TSLA’s autonomous driving capabilities.

There are so many Twitter video posts of Tesla auto pilot failing and the owners casually complaining about it that needs a compilation video.
https://twitter.com/shabudibudi/status/ ... 9268705280
^I really think if Tesla could just invent some kind of front only face LIDAR a lot of its autopilot problems would be solved.

Here is someone who has made a twitter thread covering just the major events for Tesla in just the last 6 days, no doubt when the Tesla story ends its going to have its own Hollywood movie.
https://twitter.com/orthereaboot/status ... 1726496768
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE 2, new article
Don’t Shed a Tear for This Tesla Breakup
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... way-better
The two companies are freezing plans to raise capacity at Tesla’s electric-car battery plant, the Nikkei reported. In addition, Panasonic will suspend its planned investment in the carmaker’s China factory, which recently broke ground. Understandably, Tesla investors weren’t too happy. Panasonic shares, on the other hand, rose sharply – as much as 4 percent – in early trading Friday.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE 3
Musk's Twitter Meltdown: Declares War On Panasonic, Wall Street Journal And Bloomberg
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... -bloomberg
Predictions for the April Tesla Autonomy Event
http://blog.quirkyllama.org/2019/04/pre ... onomy.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tesla will always exist, the assets are too good for other car companies to ignore, it will just wind up being owned by a well-established car maker and everyone will be better off for it.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Chalo » Apr 13 2019 9:24am

Ho hum. Did y'all hear, Tesla's on the brink of failure again? Or is that still? Whatever. There are some more of them in the neighborhood; I've been seeing them around.

If you ignore the mating ball of weasels that is the stock market, and look only at production growth, demand, and technological leadership of the industry-- you have to conclude that Tesla's got game and the others are either playing catch-up, or not even trying to catch up.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Apr 13 2019 12:41pm

TheBeastie wrote:
Apr 13 2019 5:23am
Musk never admits the crisis in real time. We believe that right here, right now, the company appears to again be on the brink.
Been hearing that for ten years now. At some point, no matter how many times, or how loudly, you cry "WOLF!" - people stop believing you.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 13 2019 8:36pm

billvon wrote:
Apr 13 2019 12:41pm
TheBeastie wrote:
Apr 13 2019 5:23am
Musk never admits the crisis in real time. We believe that right here, right now, the company appears to again be on the brink.
Been hearing that for ten years now. At some point, no matter how many times, or how loudly, you cry "WOLF!" - people stop believing you.
Depending on your definition of “on the brink”..... Its fair to say Tesla has always operated on or near, the edge of financial failure. only once in their existence have thay reported a (marginal) quarterly profit, and are currently still “in the RED”.
Their key product for survival ..the M3 has stalled in production for the past 6 months at a rate below their own declared “break even “ volumes, and once you cut through all the media promo’ distracting BS,... that is not a sound basis for the future.
Then you can look at Tesla’s Solar arm..again seriously “stalled” if not actually going backwards...GF2 is practically mothballed !
The one area that could survive is the Energy Storage (PowerWall/ PowerPack) , which seem to have a huge market opportunity .....but unfortunately, those products have to compete for cell production with the M3...and that is one of Tesla’s weak points....cell production and pack sub assemblies.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Apr 13 2019 10:19pm

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 13 2019 8:36pm
Depending on your definition of “on the brink”..... Its fair to say Tesla has always operated on or near, the edge of financial failure.
Yep.

Sept, 2014: Dr. Menahem Anderman says Tesla will never sell a Model 3 for less than $50,000.

April, 2014: Tom Bartman of the Harvard Business School - Tesla will never be able to scale.

Feb. 2, 2014: Former GM chairman Bob Lutz says that Tesla is "finished" - they will never be able to afford the rampup to the Model 3.

Now, 5 years later, almost a quarter million model 3's have been sold.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by cricketo » Apr 16 2019 11:53am


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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 16 2019 12:45pm

Also Tesla and sustainability. This is a great document.

https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/tesla-i ... t-2019.pdf
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 16 2019 7:36pm

MusK has (another ?) explanation for low M3 production figures..
..blames Panasonic !
Tom Randall

@tsrandall
· Apr 14, 2019
Replying to @elonmusk
To be clear, you're saying that Panasonic did not achieve 35 GWh/yr capacity by the end of March as reported and that total Model 3 production in Q1 was limited by cell availability?

Elon Musk

@elonmusk
There is 35 GWh/yr “theoretical capacity”, but actual max output is ~2/3. It was physically impossible to make more Model 3’s in Q1 due to cell constraints.

1,142
6:42 PM - Apr 14, 2019
Twitter Ads info and privacy
.............................................
Elon seems to say that Model 3 is still cell constrained, but it doesn’t seem to be the case at a production of ~63,000 units last quarter unless there were specific problems with battery cell production during the last quarter or energy storage production was way higher than anyone expected.
https://electrek.co/2019/04/14/tesla-gi ... elon-musk/

Tesla may want to figure out how to make enough cells before they focus too much about how to recycle them.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Chalo » Apr 16 2019 8:17pm

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 16 2019 7:36pm
Tesla may want to figure out how to make enough cells before they focus too much about how to recycle them.
Yeah, 23 billion watt-hours per year of lithium cells isn't enough to bother trying to recycle them.

You're so full of crap, you slosh when you try to make an ill-founded point.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 16 2019 8:55pm

You Miss the point..
If Tesla cannot get cell/pack production ramped up PDQ, they will not survive to recycle anything.
Their primary reason for recycling is the recovery of materials to reduce cell costs.
Until they meet critical break even production levels, every thing they make ( cells and cars) is a loss
There is more “savings” (margin improvement) in increasing production than recovering raw materials.
...and from Musk himself, ..cell production is currently the main bottleneck in M3 production.
That is why i said ...”BEFORE they focus on recycling”
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Chalo » Apr 16 2019 10:04pm

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 16 2019 8:55pm
You Miss the point..
If Tesla cannot get cell/pack production ramped up PDQ, they will not survive to recycle anything.
There are developments that could easily kill Tesla. But those same developments will kill the weak and obsolete carmakers first. They have no viable hand to play.

I hope it happens. Having no remaining major carmakers and drowning all car stockholders in their misplaced greed would be a near-ideal scenario in my mind. But Tesla is a step towards the future, and the others are an ugly past best forgotten. The backwards ones will perish first, no matter how rich they appear to be at the moment.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 16 2019 10:21pm

Yup just a few posts ago it was something about Tesla demand is dropping... So as it turns out demand is still higher then production... This is the way you want it. Not the other way around. Companies will figure out how to produce more cells in time. https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/15/el ... arfeelpush
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 16 2019 11:14pm

. So as it turns out demand is still higher then production... This is the way you want it.
What you dont want is production to fail to meet demand..when you have invested in sufficient capacity !
No Manufacturing company can afford their production plants operating below target output levels ...or even at efficiencies below worlds best practice. Capital Assets have to earn their keep, and that is why Panasonic /Tesla dont want to invest in more manufacturing capacity until those targets are achieved.
The skill of business planning is to scale your manufacturing capacity to suit the market demand.
If you cannot produce enough product to supply the demand, you are missing sales revenue
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Apr 17 2019 12:01pm

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 16 2019 11:14pm
If you cannot produce enough product to supply the demand, you are missing sales revenue
They don't have to worry about that. Per Beastie, "The DEMAND for their cars has completely gone." So no problems meeting that demand.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by cricketo » Apr 20 2019 3:31am


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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Chalo » Apr 20 2019 3:58am

Cue Hillhater or Beastie saying how it's all because Audi isn't focusing on coal-fired cars.
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