"Realistically I think we need to use oil & gas because":

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Elon's Warning { they're calling it }
"Otherwise ( dammit )
Civilization (I enjoy warmth )
Will Crumble"
Hey, Elon's a smart guy
How 'you 'doin?
M
 
The civilian world can easily transition to electric and hybrids. All it costs is money.

The militaries of the world will be the last to give up oil, and they will only do that when the oil is gone.
 
An excerpt from a speech my father wrote recently. This is the current, shared opinion, of alot of the power industry, for I see the discussion come up all the time in the steam boiler groups.

My father is a world renowned engineer, educator, and company owner, ( flies across the world monthly)), licensed to practice, with an operating engineering company, is currently working on fusion in France ( the ITER), Geothermal in Japan ( Mitsubishi ), scrubbers in New York ( Owls head,) and probally designed the reactor that is powering your state; (...and ...wrote the instruction booklet to boot.) . We have certainly been inside a large percentage of power plants in the USA, practicing for half a century as a ASME power engineer.

I do not know where I sit. Personally. I really have none of his experience, nor credentials.

Batteries, they do not make electricity – they store electricity produced elsewhere, primarily by coal, uranium, natural gas-powered plants, or diesel-fueled generators. So, to say an EV is a zero-emission vehicle is not at all valid.

About forty percent of the electricity generated in the U.S. (and an even larger fraction in the rest of the world) is from coal-fired plants. It follows that forty percent of the EVs on the road are coal-powered, a technical fact that is not well provided to the public, as it does not assist in making someone’s profits.

It takes virtually the same amount of energy to move a five-thousand-pound gasoline-driven automobile a mile as it does an electric one, and note that electric vehicles generally weigh far more than conventional gasoline powered vehicles. The only question again is what produces the power? To reiterate, it does not come from the battery; the battery is only the storage device.

There are two types of batteries; rechargeable, and single-use. The most common single-use batteries are A, AA, AAA, C, D. 9V, and lantern types. Those dry-cell species use zinc, manganese, lithium, silver oxide, or zinc and carbon to store electricity chemically. Please note they all contain toxic, heavy metals.
Rechargeable batteries only differ in their internal materials, usually lithium-ion, nickel-metal oxide, and nickel-cadmium. The United States uses three billion of these two battery types a year, and most are not recycled; they end up in landfills. California is the only state which requires all batteries be recycled. If you throw your small, used batteries in the trash, here is what happens to them.

All batteries are self-discharging. That means even when not in use, they leak tiny amounts of energy. You have likely ruined a flashlight or two from an old, ruptured battery. When a battery runs down and can no longer power a toy or light, you think of it as dead; well, it is not. It continues to leak small amounts of electricity. As the chemicals inside it run out, pressure builds inside the battery's metal casing, and eventually, it cracks. The metals left inside then ooze out. The ooze in your ruined flashlight is toxic, and so is the ooze that will inevitably leak from every battery in a landfill. All batteries eventually rupture; it just takes rechargeable batteries longer to end up in the landfill.

In addition to dry cell batteries, there are also wet cell ones used in automobiles, boats, and motorcycles these are lead-acid type of battery, found in virtually all gasoline powered vehicles. The good thing about those is, ninety percent of them are recycled. Unfortunately, we do not yet know how to recycle a single-use battery properly.
But that is not half of it. For those excited about electric cars and a green revolution, take a closer look at batteries and also windmills and solar panels. These three technologies share what we call environmentally destructive production costs.

A typical EV battery weighs about one thousand pounds. It contains twenty-five pounds of lithium, sixty pounds of nickel, 44 pounds of manganese, 30 pounds cobalt, 200 pounds of copper, and 400 pounds of aluminum, steel, and plastic. Inside are over 6,000 individual lithium-ion cells.

All those toxic components come from mining. For instance, to manufacture each EV auto battery, you must process 25,000 pounds of brine for the lithium, 30,000 pounds of ore for the cobalt, 5,000 pounds of ore for the nickel, and 25,000 pounds of ore for copper. All told, you dig up 500,000 pounds of the earth's crust for just one typical electric automobile battery.

Sixty-eight percent of the world's cobalt, a significant part of a battery, comes from the Congo. Their mines have no pollution controls, and workers can die from handling this toxic material. Should we factor in these factors as part of the cost of driving an electric car?

California is building the largest battery in the world near San Francisco, and they intend to power it from solar panels and windmills. They claim this is the ultimate in being “green”, but it is not. This construction project is creating an environmental disaster.

The main problem with solar arrays is the chemicals needed to process silicate into the silicon used in the panels. To make pure enough silicon requires processing it with hydrochloric acid, sulfuric acid, nitric acid, hydrogen fluoride, trichloroethane, and acetone. In addition, they also need gallium, arsenide, copper-indium-gallium, and cadmium-telluride, which also are highly toxic. Silicon dust is a hazard to the workers, and the panels cannot be recycled.

Windmills are the ultimate in embedded costs and environmental destruction. Each large windmill has a weight of about 1688 tons (the equivalent to about 1000 automobiles) and contains 1300 tons of concrete, 295 tons of steel, 48 tons of iron, 24 tons of fiberglass/epoxy, and the hard to extract rare earths neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium. A large windmill blade weighs 81,000 pounds and will last 15 to 20 years, at which time it must be replaced. We presently cannot recycle used blades.

There may be a place for these technologies, but you must look beyond the myth of zero emissions.
"Going Green" may sound like the Utopian ideal but when you look at the hidden and embedded costs realistically with an open mind, you can see that Going Green is more destructive to the Earth's environment than meets the eye, for sure.

Why is it that these realities are not presented within our society? In my opinion, one only needs to look at the corporations and their management to see who can profit from promoting the “green revolution”. A new technology to promote, manufacture, sell and make profits from; that is what many of us have been trained to seek out for success in our working lives, often with a blind eye to the realities of what we are doing. No judgement here, just stating truth.

Having worked in the energy field for over 50 years, I believe the most real solution to most of the “green” objectives was presented by Jimmy Carter way back in the 1970s. This was not because of the motive of achieving minimum environmental impact, but rather to get through the Oil Crisis of that decade. Conservation, cutting back on the consumption of energy, that works much better than many of the present directions that big corporations are taking in today’s world. But there’s not much profit in going with that path.

-Frederick Rosse, Beckersville Steam Engineering Co.
 
Of course u don’t have to get the electricity produced by burning fossil fuel. You could produce the electricity by one of many “friendlier” means.

When I lived in Oregon I chose to have all my electricity produced by wind and it cost me like 10% more. Different locations will be more or less expensive depending on proximity to windy areas, or strong sunlight, or a dam, or whatever. The potential is there for the common citizen to have all their elec produced in a sustainable way but they’re too cheap to do it.

Unfettered capitalism is the problem

I think looking at ur dad’s REAL costs related to alternative energy misses the point and our biggest environmental problem now is global warming not chem pollution. Alternative means of producing electricity can greatly reduce greenhouse gases.
 
spinningmagnets said:
The civilian world can easily transition to electric and hybrids. All it costs is money.
Civilian transport is only a minor fraction of of oil usage.
Far more critical is all the industrial, and commercial use for chemicals, pharmcuticals, plastics, etc etc..
….they are much more difficult to substitute without major compromises and sacrifices
Any restriction on oil/ products availability will affect the underdeveloped societies most.
Example in reality..Sri Lanka !
For a practical, civilised, society, the primary requirement is available, affordable, reliable, energy,… fuel, electricity, etc.
Currently, that can only be provided “en mass” by fossil fuel sources .Oil , Gas, and coal.
 
He is a smart man and knows what he is talking about.

One point he dogged is we need to change. Jimmy Carter was elected into office 1977. What have we done to reduce our energy use and change our path from environmental destruction.

Realistically I think we need to use oil & gas because we never got rid of all the horses or steam engines. The other 99% need to use something else.

Yes, EV's are dirty as the source of electricity. The power efficiency of generation plants is much higher than ICE and it's easer to clean up plant emission's.

by DogDipstick » Sep 01 2022 11:48am

An excerpt from a speech my father wrote recently. This is the current, shared opinion, of alot of the power industry, for I see the discussion come up all the time in the steam boiler groups.

My father is a world renowned engineer, educator, and company owner, ( flies across the world monthly)), licensed to practice, with an operating engineering company, is currently working on fusion in France ( the ITER), Geothermal in Japan ( Mitsubishi ), scrubbers in New York ( Owls head,) and probally designed the reactor that is powering your state; (...and ...wrote the instruction booklet to boot.) . We have certainly been inside a large percentage of power plants in the USA, practicing for half a century as a ASME power engineer.

I do not know where I sit. Personally. I really have none of his experience, nor credentials.
Batteries, they do not make electricity – they store electricity produced elsewhere, primarily by coal, uranium, natural gas-powered plants, or diesel-fueled generators. So, to say an EV is a zero-emission vehicle is not at all valid.

About forty percent of the electricity generated in the U.S. (and an even larger fraction in the rest of the world) is from coal-fired plants. It follows that forty percent of the EVs on the road are coal-powered, a technical fact that is not well provided to the public, as it does not assist in making someone’s profits.

It takes virtually the same amount of energy to move a five-thousand-pound gasoline-driven automobile a mile as it does an electric one, and note that electric vehicles generally weigh far more than conventional gasoline powered vehicles. The only question again is what produces the power? To reiterate, it does not come from the battery; the battery is only the storage device.

There are two types of batteries; rechargeable, and single-use. The most common single-use batteries are A, AA, AAA, C, D. 9V, and lantern types. Those dry-cell species use zinc, manganese, lithium, silver oxide, or zinc and carbon to store electricity chemically. Please note they all contain toxic, heavy metals.
Rechargeable batteries only differ in their internal materials, usually lithium-ion, nickel-metal oxide, and nickel-cadmium. The United States uses three billion of these two battery types a year, and most are not recycled; they end up in landfills. California is the only state which requires all batteries be recycled. If you throw your small, used batteries in the trash, here is what happens to them.

All batteries are self-discharging. That means even when not in use, they leak tiny amounts of energy. You have likely ruined a flashlight or two from an old, ruptured battery. When a battery runs down and can no longer power a toy or light, you think of it as dead; well, it is not. It continues to leak small amounts of electricity. As the chemicals inside it run out, pressure builds inside the battery's metal casing, and eventually, it cracks. The metals left inside then ooze out. The ooze in your ruined flashlight is toxic, and so is the ooze that will inevitably leak from every battery in a landfill. All batteries eventually rupture; it just takes rechargeable batteries longer to end up in the landfill.

In addition to dry cell batteries, there are also wet cell ones used in automobiles, boats, and motorcycles these are lead-acid type of battery, found in virtually all gasoline powered vehicles. The good thing about those is, ninety percent of them are recycled. Unfortunately, we do not yet know how to recycle a single-use battery properly.
But that is not half of it. For those excited about electric cars and a green revolution, take a closer look at batteries and also windmills and solar panels. These three technologies share what we call environmentally destructive production costs.

A typical EV battery weighs about one thousand pounds. It contains twenty-five pounds of lithium, sixty pounds of nickel, 44 pounds of manganese, 30 pounds cobalt, 200 pounds of copper, and 400 pounds of aluminum, steel, and plastic. Inside are over 6,000 individual lithium-ion cells.

All those toxic components come from mining. For instance, to manufacture each EV auto battery, you must process 25,000 pounds of brine for the lithium, 30,000 pounds of ore for the cobalt, 5,000 pounds of ore for the nickel, and 25,000 pounds of ore for copper. All told, you dig up 500,000 pounds of the earth's crust for just one typical electric automobile battery.

Sixty-eight percent of the world's cobalt, a significant part of a battery, comes from the Congo. Their mines have no pollution controls, and workers can die from handling this toxic material. Should we factor in these factors as part of the cost of driving an electric car?

California is building the largest battery in the world near San Francisco, and they intend to power it from solar panels and windmills. They claim this is the ultimate in being “green”, but it is not. This construction project is creating an environmental disaster.

The main problem with solar arrays is the chemicals needed to process silicate into the silicon used in the panels. To make pure enough silicon requires processing it with hydrochloric acid, sulfuric acid, nitric acid, hydrogen fluoride, trichloroethane, and acetone. In addition, they also need gallium, arsenide, copper-indium-gallium, and cadmium-telluride, which also are highly toxic. Silicon dust is a hazard to the workers, and the panels cannot be recycled.

Windmills are the ultimate in embedded costs and environmental destruction. Each large windmill has a weight of about 1688 tons (the equivalent to about 1000 automobiles) and contains 1300 tons of concrete, 295 tons of steel, 48 tons of iron, 24 tons of fiberglass/epoxy, and the hard to extract rare earths neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium. A large windmill blade weighs 81,000 pounds and will last 15 to 20 years, at which time it must be replaced. We presently cannot recycle used blades.

There may be a place for these technologies, but you must look beyond the myth of zero emissions.
"Going Green" may sound like the Utopian ideal but when you look at the hidden and embedded costs realistically with an open mind, you can see that Going Green is more destructive to the Earth's environment than meets the eye, for sure.

Why is it that these realities are not presented within our society? In my opinion, one only needs to look at the corporations and their management to see who can profit from promoting the “green revolution”. A new technology to promote, manufacture, sell and make profits from; that is what many of us have been trained to seek out for success in our working lives, often with a blind eye to the realities of what we are doing. No judgement here, just stating truth.

Having worked in the energy field for over 50 years, I believe the most real solution to most of the “green” objectives was presented by Jimmy Carter way back in the 1970s. This was not because of the motive of achieving minimum environmental impact, but rather to get through the Oil Crisis of that decade. Conservation, cutting back on the consumption of energy, that works much better than many of the present directions that big corporations are taking in today’s world. But there’s not much profit in going with that path.

-Frederick Rosse, Beckersville Steam Engineering Co.
 
Hummina Shadeeba said:
There’s too many people. It seems nitpicking beyond that.
True, and a serious problem, but it is not the main factor.
We could shift some energy demand away from oil to electricity ( transport, heating, etc) to conserve resources, ..but electricity supply is being restricted and even reduced by dumb political decisions preventing the development of enhanced generation capacity.
 
For sure we could shift from oil to whatever and we could do it maybe everywhere but planes so far. And batteries aren’t far from being both with the energy density needed to be practical and environmentally hit all the goals.
 
Hillhater said:
Ocean freight shipping poses a major challenge for oil substution,

We've done it without fossil fuels before-- and without satellite observations, accurate weather forecasting, industrial materials, machine automation, or computer-aided design.

Major challenge? Sure. It's the kind that money can surmount, which once done will build lasting wealth instead of making expensive problems to contend with tomorrow. That's the thing about both fossil fuels and fission energy: they rack up a bunch of externalities for future economies to pay more to fix than the value of the energy they provide today.
 
Hillhater said:
….and batteries are currently going the wrong direction regarding cost /kWh for mass uptake of EVs

I didn’t look much but over the last ten years battery prices have hugely dropped and just recently they’ve gone up in price with everything else.

https://www.morningbrew.com/series/battery-tech-for-evs-and-beyond/stories/2022/04/13/after-a-decade-of-declines-battery-prices-will-increase-in-2022-top-analysts-say


https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%253A%252F%252Fs3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com%252Fpsh-ex-ftnikkei-3937bb4%252Fimages%252F_aliases%252Farticleimage%252F1%252F4%252F4%252F2%252F38132441-1-eng-GB%252Fbattery-pack-costs-fell-sharply-over-past-decade.png?source=nar-cms
 

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Arguing that people who are concerned about global warming should have to ride in a flinstone plane or something obviously isn’t a solution to the problem.
(Jim Carey? Why do we care what he got in math class? It seems he’s capable of adding the true costs of burning)

We should make people pay the FULL cost of burning fuel for starters and air pollution has a huge impact on health

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/36501

I think it’s estimated we’d all get a couple more year of life if the world wasn’t burning. How much is that worth?


2.2 years

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/14/air-pollution-takes-2-years-off-your-life-more-than-smoking-or-alcohol.html


There’s many things in the article that are straight wrong, one being you need cobalt in lithium batteries. Tempted to go through it all and add where it’s wrong or outdated or assuming the worst case scenario
 
We don’t need a rocket scientist to figure the true costs but let’s figure it here. ? To be human is to pollute? Sure. That’s possibly a very simplistic escape from taking responsibility though.

Hero musk is right about what?

Who is this John Karrey?

Why should anyone have to diminish their burning if the rest aren’t? It needs more than personal responsibility and there’s cheapskates all over who don’t even think global warming is real or are too concerned about themselves (ironically while killing themselves and their family sooner). That’s when the government is useful.


Yes I believe reducing or at least stopping the population from growing seems a responsible move until we could get our environmental problems more under control. Not that I think that is possible but it would be a relief.
 
Elon Musk also thinks it's important to keep growing the population, so his credibility is less than zero on issues of sustainability.
 
You didn’t need rocket scientist expertise to just say do what hero Elon says. Is Elon adding up the 2.2 years lost? Let’s see some rocket scientist math of ur own. I can do this math but would like to see urs first.
 
ebuilder said:
many believe its already started to happen...the earth will become less habitable and humans will need to create their own eco system to survive elsewhere. That will take more people and not less.

We don’t just believe it’s becoming less live-able here on earth, we know it is, and we know why. Opting to move to mars instead of making it livable here.. that’s why we have government n laws to help protect those of us who aren’t into that abomination of a strategy. It’s the non-strategy. It’s the run-away. There’s no math needed there and it results in 0 for earth. That’s the math I’m looking to see: how well does life on earth do?
 
ebuilder said:
Chalo said:
Elon Musk also thinks it's important to keep growing the population, so his credibility is less than zero on issues of sustainability.
Your parochial view I am afraid. I side with Musk's genius.
I believe Musk believes in his heart of heart that humanity aka our civilization will only survive by colonizing to other planets.

Thing is, he thinks it's okay to ruin the only place we know we can live in the process. And we're not the only ones who live here.

We don't have to survive indefinitely, and we probably shouldn't, if we can't bring ourselves to live in balance with our home world.

Musk's "genius" is in hyping stock sales. His tech ideas are like a teenage nerd's. And he doesn't have the chops to carry out any of them himself.

Is the planet not a perishable good?

No, our planet is a self-correcting system, at least until we break it badly enough that it can't self-correct anymore. I think we shouldn't.
 
ebuilder said:
How quaint for you to demonize the predominate electric car manufacturer and believe deludedly Elon wants to promote destruction of Earth.

Grossly overweight and overpowered personal cars, whatever power source they run on, are a problem that must end unless the goal is to kill us all. An actual genius would understand and acknowledge this.

Musk would rather compound the problem with millions of tons more greenhouse gas, just so he can lay claim to an unlivable planet. If this nonsense weren't poisoning, roasting, and flooding the rest of us out of our homes, I'd say go for it.
 
ebuilder said:
Climate change is a fascinating subject and relatable to my education. There is still debate for example on what caused the ice age and of course the continental land drift theory. How the earth evolved before human intervention. Nobody is smart enough to know if the carbon footprint created by man has inexorably altered the true predictor of climate on planet earth.

We are smart enough. We know we are altering the atmosphere content and it is causing global warming. We see the results. Whether it is now to the point of being inexorable is up for debate and there’s thought to be a tipping point. I’m not comfortable playing id it inexorable or not with such things.
We spend more money now.. or we pay later big time.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system

As far as my own education it’s good enough that I know when I don’t know and who to defer to that does.
https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus.amp
 
Calling efforts to combat climate change with solar power, evs, and batteries a boondoggle leaves us at opposite ends of reality.

As far as those starving people who are too worried about putting food on the table, they should’ve been helped long ago. That’s not hard. That’s another reason I like socialism as it enables us to pull up the weakest of the world and allow them to get on-board with bigger problems. If every environmental problem were ignored because it would cost money to fix or there’s someone somewhere who can’t do it because they’re starving we wouldn’t get anywhere. I’m happy to add another 50% tax on the world’s billionaires to solve the problem of those who can’t put food on their table. They earned it. And then can move on to the bigger world problems.
 
why u think I didn’t know musk was planning to go to mars I don’t know and I said nothing of the sort


Why u keep insisting I’m not educated enough I don’t understand. Post something beyond my abilities to understand right here. Im not interested in ur almost-rocket science degree. We aren’t talking about rocket science. And you’re not interested in me showing how I’m 2 points from Mensa on my miller analogy test. Or are u?
Lately u say I’m not even on the planet, yet you say you want to debate the interesting subject. That’s not doing it.
 
ebuilder said:
How about Grandma? How polluting is Grandma driving your demonic Tesla when she barely grazes the gas pedal to go the speed limit? Her Watt-hrs aren't really out of line, are they? Grandma's battery lasts for weeks. That big bad Tesla isn't really so bad is it? Grandma likes it.

If Granny drives a 1000 pound Tesla, then she and four other grannies can also drive Teslas for the same sunk resources as one of today's Teslas. And if it has enough power to go legal speeds but not more than that, we can diminish the sunk resources even further, or serve even more grannies without laying waste to more land, air, water.

BBSHD has lower impact than growing the food required to make muscle power, so no problem there (unless we have way too many people and thus way too many BBSHDs).

I think rationing energy and materials on an individual basis, while letting people decide how they want to spend their allotment, would be one way of stewarding resources in the interest of people who come along later. But much easier and more practicable would be to cut our population by 25% per generation until we have maybe 10% of today's numbers. All the while, people's resource rations could increase proportionally, at no extra burden on our biosphere.

The way we live now is condemning everyone yet to come to live a worse life than we enjoy now, when we ourselves could easily have a much better quality of life with a lot less consumption, pollution, and resource depletion. If we prioritize real quality of life instead of economic activity (which isn't even close to the same thing), we could probably reduce our consumption by one order of magnitude. Then if we go on to reduce world population by one order of magnitude, we'd probably be sustainable in the long term.
 
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