Tesla Model 3

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Jul 05 2018 7:40pm

Hillhater wrote:
Jul 05 2018 7:33pm
I dont have, ..never had,...and will never have ...any Tesla shares...they are too high risk.
I do. Made over a 100% return so far.
So you dont believe ANY of the numerous reports, even from Tesla employees, ?
The report on 5000 a week was confirmed by a Tesla employee's tweet.
i hope Musk keeps his word and takes that first Mars shuttle.. ( but he wont..more slippery words) ...on a one way trip
Some people do, some people hate. It's the way of the world.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Jul 05 2018 11:54pm

Thats the thing with high risk investments...either a big return,...or a big loss.
... Its called gambling !,..something i dont do with big $$s .
The 5000 was not the question, ..
...it was had they taken labour off the S& X lines to boost the M3 production in those last few days
The reports were that they also had to propioritise the paint line for the M3, over other models, stopping the S /X production at times.
How many more S & X units could they have produced ?
And that was just for the 5000 rate, Obviously not sustainable for ongoing increased production .
It will be interesting to see if they kept production going during the 4th holiday period.?
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Punx0r » Jul 06 2018 4:55am

Tesla has no prior experience in high-volume manufacturing so it's little wonder the initial ,ambitious, steeply-ramped production targets are being missed.

By all accounts Musk is ambitious, demanding, optimistic and a bit of a dreamer. I'm not sure I'd like to work for him, but historically this kind of character often results in progress (sometimes in spite of their quirks). The boss who says "don't worry lads, just get done what you can" is well liked and hits their low predicted output but little gets done.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Jul 06 2018 10:54am

Hillhater wrote:
Jul 05 2018 11:54pm
Thats the thing with high risk investments...either a big return,...or a big loss.
... Its called gambling !,..something i dont do with big $$s .
I do; I just never gamble more than I can afford to lose.

So far it's paid off. My investments have ranged from a 5400% return to a 6% loss. (The 6% loss came from the advice of a financial advisor who suggested I get a 'safe' investment. There's a lesson there.) Tesla is not my best performing stock by a longshot.
The 5000 was not the question, ..
...it was had they taken labour off the S& X lines to boost the M3 production in those last few days
They probably did. Which is why they have been hiring to backfill the S and X lines. (A lot easier to put new people on a line that has been running smoothly for years than on a line that's still changing as they ramp production.)
And that was just for the 5000 rate, Obviously not sustainable for ongoing increased production .
Why not? That's like saying "yeah, Samsung produced 23 million phones in 2010 - OBVIOUSLY not sustainable or increasable. They had to build a whole new line!"
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Jul 06 2018 3:23pm

Hillhater wrote:
Jul 05 2018 7:33pm

Why did they make so FEW M3s in Q2 ?... It should have been closer to 40,000 than the 28500 actual.
From musks own prediction they planned to make 20,000 in june alone !
Lets start with this.
He Claimed they would be at 5000/ week by end of June.
To prove he did that they made 7000 for the last week to show all 3 models being produced simultaneously.
As for producing so Few in Q2 that is because they needed for 1 to ramp up and 2 to shut down the lines a couple times to be able to make them work faster.

Your argument is not Valid. What would be a valid arqument is if they don't produce many cars in Q3 and that would prove the numbers were a burst number But I would be willing to bet a decent amount of money Q3 looks good.

SO WHEN THEY PRODUCE LOTS OF CARS AND THEY ARE SHOWING PROFITS WHAT WILL BE YOUR NEXT GRIPE WITH THEM?

You sir will never be happy Tesla is paving the way and working crazy hard to prove it. I support them and I am about to hand them a lot of money to prove that!
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Dauntless » Jul 06 2018 3:40pm

https://www-m.cnn.com/2018/07/06/asia/t ... index.html

Well, NO WONDER the car production is up and down.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Jul 06 2018 11:59pm

Arlo1 wrote:
Jul 06 2018 3:23pm
Hillhater wrote:
Jul 05 2018 7:33pm

Why did they make so FEW M3s in Q2 ?... It should have been closer to 40,000 than the 28500 actual.
From musks own prediction they planned to make 20,000 in june alone !
Lets start with this.
He Claimed they would be at 5000/ week by end of June.
To prove he did that they made 7000 for the last week to show all 3 models being produced simultaneously.
As for producing so Few in Q2 that is because they needed for 1 to ramp up and 2 to shut down the lines a couple times to be able to make them work faster.

Your argument is not Valid. What would be a valid arqument is if they don't produce many cars in Q3 and that would prove the numbers were a burst number
Obviously it was a "burst" number and not a "run rate" ! ..do some simple maths .
As i pointed out.. If they had been at a run rate of 2000 as he claimed at end Q1, and ramped steadily up to 5000 by end Q2 (13 weeks) ..they should have produced 45,000 units..less a few days out , so say lose 5,000.. They still should have been near 40,000 for the Qtr
Why didnt they ?..
1)..because the Q1 2000 figure was not a run rate ,..it was also a "burst", one off, number .which they could not sustain week on week at that time.
2) the 5000/week figure at end Q2 was also a one off "burst" number, the week before probably well below even 4000 ! (Even Musk only claimed 3500 in early june..and that was also likely a "good week")
If is really a 5000/week "run rate", reaching 6000 by month end as he says, then thro' July they should output 22,000+ units..but they will not release production numbers. Will they ?
So what do you think they will produce in Q3 .... as they have to declare that figure. ?

I assume you heard they skipped doing the rolling road , brake tests , on those M3 cars last week of the quarter,..
...as well as the 300 odd spot welds they decided were not needed .
Makes you wonder what other shortcuts they took , that we have not heard about yet, to make the number in time ?
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Jul 07 2018 12:45am

Hillhater wrote:
Jul 06 2018 11:59pm
I assume you heard they skipped doing the rolling road , brake tests , on those M3 cars last week of the quarter,..
...as well as the 300 odd spot welds they decided were not needed .
Makes you wonder what other shortcuts they took , that we have not heard about yet, to make the number in time ?
Probably quite a few; every manufacturing line changes with time, often in the direction of skipping/combining steps to speed up manufacturing. These changes are the most rapid during ramp-up. (They likely added some steps as well.)
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Jul 07 2018 1:48am

Hillhater wrote:
Jul 06 2018 11:59pm
Arlo1 wrote:
Jul 06 2018 3:23pm
Hillhater wrote:
Jul 05 2018 7:33pm

Why did they make so FEW M3s in Q2 ?... It should have been closer to 40,000 than the 28500 actual.
From musks own prediction they planned to make 20,000 in june alone !
Lets start with this.
He Claimed they would be at 5000/ week by end of June.
To prove he did that they made 7000 for the last week to show all 3 models being produced simultaneously.
As for producing so Few in Q2 that is because they needed for 1 to ramp up and 2 to shut down the lines a couple times to be able to make them work faster.

Your argument is not Valid. What would be a valid arqument is if they don't produce many cars in Q3 and that would prove the numbers were a burst number
Obviously it was a "burst" number and not a "run rate" ! ..do some simple maths .
As i pointed out.. If they had been at a run rate of 2000 as he claimed at end Q1, and ramped steadily up to 5000 by end Q2 (13 weeks) ..they should have produced 45,000 units..less a few days out , so say lose 5,000.. They still should have been near 40,000 for the Qtr
Why didnt they ?..
1)..because the Q1 2000 figure was not a run rate ,..it was also a "burst", one off, number .which they could not sustain week on week at that time.
2) the 5000/week figure at end Q2 was also a one off "burst" number, the week before probably well below even 4000 ! (Even Musk only claimed 3500 in early june..and that was also likely a "good week")
If is really a 5000/week "run rate", reaching 6000 by month end as he says, then thro' July they should output 22,000+ units..but they will not release production numbers. Will they ?
So what do you think they will produce in Q3 .... as they have to declare that figure. ?

I assume you heard they skipped doing the rolling road , brake tests , on those M3 cars last week of the quarter,..
...as well as the 300 odd spot welds they decided were not needed .
Makes you wonder what other shortcuts they took , that we have not heard about yet, to make the number in time ?
You are confusing Delivered and Produced models.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Jul 07 2018 2:48am

No , i am not.!
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Aug 10 2018 10:46pm

Over 16k model 3s in July!! Where is all the negativity now ???

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RC and most types of Lithium batteries you MUST know your individual cell voltages charging and discharging.
Don't keep them were you cant afford smoke or fire!
Never above 4.2v never below 2.7v EVER!!!
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Aug 11 2018 12:12am

Arlo1 wrote:
Aug 10 2018 10:46pm
Over 16k model 3s in July!! ..
Assuming they are selling as fast as they produce them,...
What happened to that 5000/week they claimed to be producing at the end of June ?
So another "target" missed and conveniently forgotten :roll:

And tesla have also targeted a production of 50,000-55,000 for Q3..
Which implies a overall production rate of 3,850-4,250 units per week ,??
... dispite having also set a target of 6000 per week for the end of August ??
Hmm? Tesla maths ?
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Aug 11 2018 7:19pm

Hillhater wrote:
Aug 11 2018 12:12am
Arlo1 wrote:
Aug 10 2018 10:46pm
Over 16k model 3s in July!! ..
Assuming they are selling as fast as they produce them,...
What happened to that 5000/week they claimed to be producing at the end of June ?
So another "target" missed and conveniently forgotten :roll:

And tesla have also targeted a production of 50,000-55,000 for Q3..
Which implies a overall production rate of 3,850-4,250 units per week ,??
... dispite having also set a target of 6000 per week for the end of August ??
Hmm? Tesla maths ?
You really don't understand basic math at all. When they need to make a change or service any of the lines that puts it down for the time it takes to work on the line. 16k+ for 4 weeks means either 4k a week or OR a few days down with a week with ~ 1000 cars and 3 weeks with 5000 cars. These guys are working up to 6000 model 3s per week by the end of this month and 10k by the end of the year. ANYTIME they want to make things faster means some days of producing 0 cars!!! You have to shut the line down to do maintenance and upgrades once in a while AS ALL FACTORIES do!!
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Ianhill » Aug 12 2018 8:25am

I'm fed up of opening browser and the news feed is Tesla bashing crazy, Its the same old elons calls man pedophile, Tesla stock this that and the other its obvious the people up top have spent money trying to convince me he is evil in many ways, I don't really give a toss the guys the otherwise of the world with cars beyond my budget and still BBC churn out shit articles that the click bait name tag is enough to say I'm not even taking a sniff of your turd sandwich I've had my fill of crap it's clear someone is scared and it shows media have been dripping poison down a string for years.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Aug 12 2018 8:44am

So you really believe that they took the equivalent of 9+ full days out of production in July for "maintenance and upgrades" ?..
..even though there has been no mention of any such downtime ?...
.and when they are so far behind their own production schedule ?
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by wineboyrider » Aug 12 2018 10:22am

TESLA 420!
ES IS SAVED! THANK YOU JUSTIN.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Aug 12 2018 10:39am

Hillhater wrote:
Aug 12 2018 8:44am
So you really believe that they took the equivalent of 9+ full days out of production in July for "maintenance and upgrades" ?..
..even though there has been no mention of any such downtime ?...
.and when they are so far behind their own production schedule ?
Again very simple math. If they are trying to achieve 5000/week and they may 16,000 then they likely made 5000 for 3 of the 4 weeks and 1000 for the 4th week which is more like 4/5th the week shut down or 5.6 days of shutdown.

All I know is they knocked it out of the park with the highest numbers for a month ever and you are still trying to find negative things to say about them. 16k cars a month alone is 192 cars per year... They are going much higher.

No matter what evidence you are presented with you will always argue either you are crazy gullible and believe all the negative propaganda about them or you are just trying to spend as much time as you can making them look bad because you are paid to do so.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Aug 12 2018 6:16pm

Arlo1 wrote:
Aug 12 2018 10:39am
Again very simple math. If they are trying to achieve 5000/week and they may 16,000 then they likely made 5000 for 3 of the 4 weeks and 1000 for the 4th week which is more like 4/5th the week shut down or 5.6 days of shutdown.
Yes, but a bit too "Simple"......maybe you had the same math lessons as those Tesla guys ?
16k in July, (31 days ) at a claimed "run rate " of only 5k /week.... (but it should be above that by now).... would need only 22 days.
That leaves another 9 days of downtime. (Not 5.6)
Maintenance time should be built into any production forecast, such that if they plan a "run rate" of 5k/week, that is already including maintenance time..if they have not done that ..then they are fooling themselves as much as they are fooling you.
Even with their already much reduced target of 5k/week, they should have been able to produce over 22,000 in July, but actually only did 73% of that !
In the manufacturing world, that is a disaster !

..Just pointing out that they NEVER hit the targets they set for themselves .
..and this time they have not even bothered to explain
Im not critical the guys trying to make these cars, i am critical of the idiots in management who keep fooling themselves, and the media, that they are able to make many more than they actually can in reality.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Aug 12 2018 7:58pm

But they never set a target of 22k for July.... They wanted a few weeks of 5k a week to prove they can do it and they planned some down time to upgrade things as they go. They know and have always claimed they will have downtime to keep increasing the ramp and to add options. You and the shorts are the only ones who seem to make a bigger deal out of this. Don't forget Teslas 3 models are the 3 tops selling models in the US by a long shot!
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Aug 12 2018 11:17pm

I'd hate to be a Tesla short this week . . .
====================================
Tesla Model 3 ramp shows encouraging signs with 16k new VIN registrations in 7 days
Simon Alvarez
August 12, 2018

Tesla has filed more than 16,000 new Model 3 VIN registrations in the past seven days, in what is yet another encouraging sign that the company is hitting its stride with the production of the electric car. Tesla has been working on sustaining the pace it displayed during its “burst production week” in the last seven days of June, when it manufactured 5,000 Model 3 in one week. These latest VIN registrations, together with updates from Tesla’s executives during the Q2 earnings call, indicate that Tesla is doing just that.

VIN registrations monitored by Twitter group @Model3VINs indicate that Tesla has filed multiple batches equaling more than 16,000 new Model 3 from August 5 to August 12. With the addition of small batches of new VINs this Sunday, Tesla has now registered a total of 98,254 Model 3 since the vehicle’s production started. Together with this notable ramp was an increase in filings corresponding to Dual Motor vehicles, which started picking up in July.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3 ... ns-7-days/
===================================
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by TheBeastie » Sep 07 2018 10:46am

Looks like Elon has gone a bit nuts lately, I refer to these articles.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/tesla-s ... -exit.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/elon-mu ... dcast.html

Tesla stock dropped a bit on open because he smoked some weed on Joe Rogan youtube channel.
https://www.youtube.com/user/PowerfulJRE/videos
On the upside its good that Elon Musk is inadvertently promoting alternative media, people are viciously hooked on the habit of watching mainstream traditional media, which I think is really bad, just makes people more stupid... (yes I know I sound like Trump right now)
I think the habit of having access to an almost infinite amount of videos and habitually searching for stuff makes people a tiny bit smarter long-term, rather than hitting a button and being forced to watch something from a narrow choice via mainstream media has decided at a specific point in time.
So it's amazing to see 14 million of views for this video compared to this typical channels average 500k total.
It's just so typical of mainstream media in that almost all the reports of this "Elon smokes weed" incident was reported as happening on a "podcast" rather than the real fact that the main audience was a live "Youtube" stream, which is generally mainstream medias biggest enemy against holding onto power, to me this is no mistake of oversight of failing to mention Youtube, this is how desperate mainstream media is to hold onto any inkling of remaining power it can.
I am nervous about the future of internet media, the mainstream media "spectrum privileged" hate open free market internet media and are desperately lobbying governments around the world to make it practically illegal to exist.
Image

Whatever happens with Elon Musk and Tesla, at least with his crazy actions lately, which don't show any signs of slowing, is more entertaining to watch for the rest of us, good luck to him.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Sep 08 2018 12:36am

“Since I joined Tesla on August 6th, the level of public attention placed on the company, as well as the pace within the company, have exceeded my expectations,” Morton said in the filing. “This caused me to reconsider my future. I want to be clear that I believe strongly in Tesla, its mission, and its future prospects, and I have no disagreements with Tesla’s leadership or its financial reporting.”.
.....In leaving the accounting chief job, Morton walked away from a $10 million new-hire equity grant that would have vested over four years.....
Hmm ? .. So , having found out what actually goes on,..not even a $10 million carrot could entice him to work in such a company ?? :lol: :wink:
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Sep 08 2018 1:59pm

Hillhater wrote:
Sep 08 2018 12:36am
“Since I joined Tesla on August 6th, the level of public attention placed on the company, as well as the pace within the company, have exceeded my expectations,” Morton said in the filing. “This caused me to reconsider my future. I want to be clear that I believe strongly in Tesla, its mission, and its future prospects, and I have no disagreements with Tesla’s leadership or its financial reporting.”.
.....In leaving the accounting chief job, Morton walked away from a $10 million new-hire equity grant that would have vested over four years.....
Hmm ? .. So , having found out what actually goes on,..not even a $10 million carrot could entice him to work in such a company ?? :lol: :wink:
Ha I read that as. Working for Tesla in a high up position puts you and your personal life in the spot light and you would need to double think every action for the rest of your life. Taking away all privacy from you and your family while knowing sharks Like the toxic hill hater him self will try to spin everything you say and do to make you look bad.
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Don't keep them were you cant afford smoke or fire!
Never above 4.2v never below 2.7v EVER!!!
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Sep 08 2018 8:54pm

Im sure he would be scared shitless by the thought of a few critical comments from unknown in forums. :roll:
If he didnt realise it was going to be a tough gig before he signed up, then he is not a smart as he thinks himself.
But CFOs dont cop a lot of public attention, thats Musks job, ..
..unless there is a big financial clusterfuc rolling down the track and someone was being set up to take the heat professionally. ?
So, i suspect he is smarter than the average ambitious fortune seeker.
Tesla financials must be like walking a tightrope over a volcano towards a promissed pot of gold...huge rewards , but a high risk and the probability of crashing in flames.
Probablly more than a career professional and family man , wanted to take. ?
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Sep 08 2018 11:01pm

Oh for sure it would not be a stress free job but one would be walking in at a good time because they are likely profitable at this very moment when looking at the top 3 EV sales in the USA and the fact model 3 is almost at full production.... https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
My Leaf motor controller build. viewtopic.php?f=30&t=63982&p=963227#p963227
My YSR build http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRo8r5g4NBg
RC and most types of Lithium batteries you MUST know your individual cell voltages charging and discharging.
Don't keep them were you cant afford smoke or fire!
Never above 4.2v never below 2.7v EVER!!!
HI power controller design. Game Changer
http://www.undergroundelectrics.ca/

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