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Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 15, 2018 1:37 am
by Chalo
liveforphysics wrote:
Apr 14, 2018 11:36 pm
Who even cares about profits?
A: Rich fux.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 15, 2018 5:18 am
by TheBeastie
I really do think Elon Musks business endeavors are all about building a cash pile big enough so he can go to Mars.
Its possible that Elon smells the end of Tesla at least in a highest sellable share price and hes looking at other things, maybe the reason he did that flamethrower was to see how much money might be weapons, I would say lots, I am sure he could come up with same amazing weaponry. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... owers-fire

Anyway seems like Googles spying algorithms came through again with this "youtube recommends next video" being this one titled "Why TESLA is no Amazon"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l0P72RC7zc

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 15, 2018 7:52 am
by Punx0r
Hillhater wrote:
Apr 14, 2018 6:42 pm
Point being, (as i said before). most successful companies do re-invest money, AND post a profit, AND pay Dividends, Bonds, share buy backs, etc, And often build a cash reserve as well for future acquisitions.
It is not normal for a business to make sufficient margin to fund all those expenses and invest a *large amount* in R&D, especially in its early years.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 16, 2018 12:53 am
by DasDouble
TheBeastie wrote:
Apr 15, 2018 5:18 am
I really do think Elon Musks business endeavors are all about building a cash pile big enough so he can go to Mars.
Its possible that Elon smells the end of Tesla at least in a highest sellable share price and hes looking at other things, maybe the reason he did that flamethrower was to see how much money might be weapons, I would say lots, I am sure he could come up with same amazing weaponry. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... owers-fire

Anyway seems like Googles spying algorithms came through again with this "youtube recommends next video" being this one titled "Why TESLA is no Amazon"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l0P72RC7zc
Dafuq are you talking about? :lol: The thing with the flamethrower was a spontaneous thing, started after a conversation with him over twitter :lol:...
The same he did with his facebook side which he deleted spontaneously.

Have a look at his biography as a book or a hear-book. You´ll understand how he thinks about stuf after that.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 16, 2018 12:56 am
by billvon
liveforphysics wrote:
Apr 14, 2018 11:36 pm
Who even cares about profits?
Pretty much everyone who works, or buys stuff.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 16, 2018 1:21 am
by liveforphysics
I work and buy plenty and would way rather see every penny possible getting reinvested into scaling the mfg volume while demand is currently effectively unlimited.

Pulling cash out now vs investing it into volume mfg would be an insane failure of long-term management.
billvon wrote:
Apr 16, 2018 12:56 am
liveforphysics wrote:
Apr 14, 2018 11:36 pm
Who even cares about profits?
Pretty much everyone who works, or buys stuff.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 16, 2018 5:46 pm
by billvon
liveforphysics wrote:
Apr 16, 2018 1:21 am
I work and buy plenty . . . .
Do you work for free, and buy materials at the highest possible cost?
and would way rather see every penny possible getting reinvested into scaling the mfg volume while demand is currently effectively unlimited.
So would I (and I have Tesla stock as well.) But that's because I am looking for long term profit.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 16, 2018 10:41 pm
by liveforphysics
The universe has been so kind to share abundance with me through working hard with my consulting business that my interest now is creating a path forward for our shared spaceships life support system as a priority of infinite importance beyond any human constructed metrics (like what patterns of 01010110's may be saved in some banks server).

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 17, 2018 9:49 pm
by Hillhater
Model 3 production has been halted by Tesla whilst they rethink how to make cars !
https://www.ft.com/content/509c934a-41e ... 5c97e6fd0b
Several opinions as to what the plan is or how long before production restarts, but it is not ideal to be rethinking the plan only a few months into the start up.
What price for a "bug" under that conference room table ?

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 17, 2018 10:14 pm
by parabellum
Starting today at Giga and tomorrow at Fremont, we will be stopping for three to five days to do a comprehensive set of upgrades. This should set us up for Model 3 production of 3000 to 4000 per week next month.

Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June. Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th
https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/tesla-mo ... -per-week/

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 2:09 am
by Dauntless
Hillhater wrote:
Apr 17, 2018 9:49 pm
Model 3 production has been halted by Tesla whilst they rethink how to make cars !

What price for a "bug" under that conference room table ?
That's a little strong. Your article didn't come up, but it gave the title as 'Tesla denies Model 3 production line shutdown is safety-related'

But I'd love to listen to that bug in the conference room.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 5:48 am
by TheBeastie
I have read a stack of articles over time saying Elon/Tesla have been ignoring expert opinion that the core reason they have such poor production numbers is that they are trying to use robots in the manufacturing cycle where other car manufacturers don't (and have very much examined doing so but it's just dumb)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/416319 ... ngle-tweet
Read this article, its the latest on it all, I can't stress it enough, all your answers are inside it.

Basically, Elon spent a few billion dollars on new extra robots trying to get rid of his Tesla factor workers where it doesn't work out and just slows down the manufacturing process, I thought everyone knew this until I saw the page of posts on this thread.

Elon is a bit of a creep really, hes wasting money trying to kick people out of jobs and failing his shareholders while at it, if he had just saved that 3 billion from new robots and instead on wages for his factory workers like how all other car manufacturers do he could have had happy workers and got all his cars built on time.

Dont answer to my post until you read the article, I am tired on seeing posts from people who are too lazy to read something, because they assume they know everything, and then fill a thread up with garbage because they just don't want to admit their wrong, thats just cancerous behavior most of us are just sick of it.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 8:37 am
by Hillhater
Dauntless wrote:
Apr 18, 2018 2:09 am
Hillhater wrote:
Apr 17, 2018 9:49 pm
Model 3 production has been halted by Tesla whilst they rethink how to make cars !

What price for a "bug" under that conference room table ?
That's a little strong. Your article didn't come up, but it gave the title as 'Tesla denies Model 3 production line shutdown is safety-related'

But I'd love to listen to that bug in the conference room.
Strong ?.. Why do you think that ?
Too many folk have their blinkers on (+rose tinted glasses) when it comes to anythig Tesla related and never accept there might just be a problem.
Initially we were told there was a battery pack assembly problem at Giga factory...
Then there were component quality problems from suppliers..?
Now we have issues with robots slowing down car assembly operations.. ?
( but didnt Tesla buy the robotics company ?)
Now they say this is a planned stoppage ( except someone forgot to plan the re-allocation of labour ?)
Bottom line is, there are multiple issues in several areas.
Having spent my working life running production plants, planning and implimenting new facility start ups, i can tell you this has all the hall marks of a massive, miss managed, Project meltdown.
And the last thing they need is an arragant CEO increasing production targets just when the wheels are falling off.
Tesla are burning cash, burning people, and burning time.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 9:24 am
by Alan B
The few people I have known who worked at Tesla say it is a crazy place to work, huge stress, impossible hours, unrealistic deadlines and the CEO terrorizes the staff. Turnover is large. Not good.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 10:43 am
by DasDouble
Alan B wrote:
Apr 18, 2018 9:24 am
The few people I have known who worked at Tesla say it is a crazy place to work, huge stress, impossible hours, unrealistic deadlines and the CEO terrorizes the staff. Turnover is large. Not good.
Well I call everyone stupid who didnt know that before they have started there. If you want to make something impossible you have to work harder then just 8-9 hours a day. Read Musks Biography and youll know whats going on there. I would love to work for Tesla Germany but I never got a reply from them even tho I have contacted them several times.. :/

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 10:50 am
by Arlo1
TheBeastie wrote:
Apr 18, 2018 5:48 am
I have read a stack of articles over time saying Elon/Tesla have been ignoring expert opinion that the core reason they have such poor production numbers is that they are trying to use robots in the manufacturing cycle where other car manufacturers don't (and have very much examined doing so but it's just dumb)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/416319 ... ngle-tweet
Read this article, its the latest on it all, I can't stress it enough, all your answers are inside it.

Basically, Elon spent a few billion dollars on new extra robots trying to get rid of his Tesla factor workers where it doesn't work out and just slows down the manufacturing process, I thought everyone knew this until I saw the page of posts on this thread.

Elon is a bit of a creep really, hes wasting money trying to kick people out of jobs and failing his shareholders while at it, if he had just saved that 3 billion from new robots and instead on wages for his factory workers like how all other car manufacturers do he could have had happy workers and got all his cars built on time.

Dont answer to my post until you read the article, I am tired on seeing posts from people who are too lazy to read something, because they assume they know everything, and then fill a thread up with garbage because they just don't want to admit their wrong, thats just cancerous behavior most of us are just sick of it.
He is not taking jobs away where they were never their in the first place the model 3 depends on a high level of automation to meet the price point their are aiming for. Humans add cost. But it's not like they were using humans to make 500k model 3 s then all the sudden he fired them off and used robots instead. And in fact if you ever go to Fremont and check out the parking lot where employees park you will see there is not enough parking because so many people work there.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 10:52 am
by Arlo1
DasDouble wrote:
Apr 18, 2018 10:43 am
Alan B wrote:
Apr 18, 2018 9:24 am
The few people I have known who worked at Tesla say it is a crazy place to work, huge stress, impossible hours, unrealistic deadlines and the CEO terrorizes the staff. Turnover is large. Not good.
Well I call everyone stupid who didnt know that before they have started there. If you want to make something impossible you have to work harder then just 8-9 hours a day. Read Musks Biography and youll know whats going on there. I would love to work for Tesla Germany but I never got a reply from them even tho I have contacted them several times.. :/
Yeah they pay very well and I have met people who love working there as well. You will always get people who have a sour taste because some of them just don't like working at all.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 12:23 pm
by Dauntless
Hillhater wrote:
Apr 18, 2018 8:37 am
Too many folk have their blinkers on (+rose tinted glasses) when it comes to anythig Tesla related and never accept there might just be a problem.
And I have not been one of them, people here get pissed at me for being the little boy that didn't see the Emperor's New Clothes. I've always been that way. If you read the original story, it's the Emperor's own scam, noone sold him on it. And he's the only one who acknowledges the little boy. (I gotta admit, I kinda liked that Emperor.)

But I try to avoid overstatement.
Hillhater wrote:
Apr 18, 2018 8:37 am
( but didnt Tesla buy the robotics company ?)
If you had assembly line problems and loved spending money, wouldn't YOU buy a robotics company? C'mon now, admit it.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/16/technol ... index.html
Hillhater wrote:
Apr 18, 2018 8:37 am
And the last thing they need is an arragant CEO increasing production targets just when the wheels are falling off.
Tesla are burning cash, burning people, and burning time.
Would he be nearly so much fun if he was REALISTIC? What about Richard Branson? Gonna bag him, too?

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/13/technol ... tml?iid=EL

Dang, was it 10 years ago that I predicted on another board that Tesla would not survive the effort to change people's minds? That making an EXPENSIVE car for people to act kewl with would accomplish far more that some cheap People's car? That even with them putting up with a buggy car for awhile there wouldn't be time enough to resolve all the issues for Tesla itself and be mainstream? It was an easy prediction to make: OF COURSE they're burning cash, OF COURSE it's not moving fast enough, OF COURSE people are exhausted. It's the only way to move this fast. They are not having a special problem, they are having the most obvious problems you would expect in their situation. Including that new technology is taking the blame for things that happened with the old technology. Aren't people funny?

I think he got in too much a rush coming out with the Model 3 that he wasn't ready to support. But once he'd committed to it he had no choice but to seek whatever production goals it required. Pulling back now would guarantee collapse, at least if they try there's some hope.

Assuming they do go down, or at least become an acquisition, it'll be a '. . . .That others may live' situation. Where would things be right now without Tesla? What if Elon hadn't been arrogant?

https://www.viamotors.com/

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 12:58 pm
by Alan B
One of the classic failures in project management comes from the practice of overworking salaried employees. They put in long hours that don't show in the costs and schedules. Then when making future estimates, all the cost and schedule history that is used for future projections is WRONG because the accounting showed 40 hours when the staff was working 60+.

It is fine to occasionally use a performance burst to make the finish line, but Tesla seems to try to do it all the time. Over the long haul it will fail.

I didn't say people didn't like working at Tesla, but it may take a toll on their lives and well-being.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 2:33 pm
by DasDouble
Alan B wrote:
Apr 18, 2018 12:58 pm

It is fine to occasionally use a performance burst to make the finish line, but Tesla seems to try to do it all the time. Over the long haul it will fail.
I don´t think so. In Germany we say wer nicht wagt, der nicht gewinnt. Means nothing ventured nothing gained. Musk always knew in the past how to handle problems and he will also this time.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 3:37 pm
by Alan B
It has been tried many times in business. Ultimately people burn out.

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 4:45 pm
by Ohbse
I have no doubt Tesla is a stressful place to work, given what they're trying to achieve that's pretty obvious. Yes - they're spending money, however that expenditure was all to achieve the required scale to achieve the vision.

Elon has freely admitted they pushed too much automation too early with M3, it's not that the automation won't work or can't be utilised, it's just too much in one hit. A staged approach would have been better. They will still get there. The current shutdown is one of many iterative improvements to the production process.

Here's the actual email Elon sent to all the staff.
Progress

First, congratulations are in order! We have now completed our third full week of producing over 2000 Model 3 vehicles. The first week was 2020, the second was 2070 and we just completed 2250 last week, along with 2000 Model S/X vehicles.

This is more than double Tesla’s weekly production rate last year and an amazing feat in the face of many challenges! It is extremely rare for an automotive company to grow the production rate by over 100% from one year to the next. Moreover, there has simultaneously been a significant improvement in quality and build accuracy, which is reflected in positive owner feedback.

Starting today at Giga and tomorrow at Fremont, we will be stopping for three to five days to do a comprehensive set of upgrades. This should set us up for Model 3 production of 3000 to 4000 per week next month.

Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June. Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.

Any Tesla department or supplier that is unable to do this will need to have a very good explanation why not, along with a plan for fixing the problem and present that to me directly. If anyone needs help achieving this, please let me know as soon as possible. We are going to find a way or make a way to get there.

The reason that the burst-build target rate is 6000 and not 5000 per week in June is that we cannot have a number with no margin for error across thousands of internally and externally produced parts and processes, amplified by a complex global logistics chain. Actual production will move as fast as the least lucky and least well-executed part of the entire Tesla production/supply chain system.

By having a Model 3 subsystem burst-build requirement of 6k by the end of June, we will lay the groundwork for achieving a steady 6k/week across the whole Model 3 system a few months later.

As part of the drive towards 6k, all Model 3 production at Fremont will move to 24/7operations. This means that we will be adding another shift to general assembly, body and paint. Please refer anyone you know who you think meets the Tesla bar for talent, drive and trust. Between Fremont and Giga, Tesla will be adding about 400 people per week for several weeks.

Precision

Most of the design tolerances of the Model 3 are already better than any other car in the world. Soon, they will all be better. This is not enough. We will keep going until the Model 3 build precision is a factor of ten better than any other car in the world. I am not kidding.

Our car needs to be designed and built with such accuracy and precision that, if an owner measures dimensions, panel gaps and flushness, and their measurements don’t match the Model 3 specs, it just means that their measuring tape is wrong.

Some parts suppliers will be unwilling or unable to achieve this level of precision. I understand that this will be considered an unreasonable request by some. That’s ok, there are lots of other car companies with much lower standards. They just can’t work with Tesla.

Profit

A fair criticism leveled at Tesla by outside critics is that you’re not a real company unless you generate a profit, meaning simply that revenue exceeds costs. It didn’t make sense to do that until reaching economies of scale, but now we are there.

Going forward, we will be far more rigorous about expenditures. I have asked the Tesla finance team to comb through every expense worldwide, no matter how small, and cut everything that doesn’t have a strong value justification.

All capital or other expenditures above a million dollars, or where a set of related expenses may accumulate to a million dollars over the next 12 months, should be considered on hold until explicitly approved by me. If you are the manager responsible, please make sure you have a detailed, first principles understanding of the supplier quote, including every line item of parts & labor, before we meet.

I have been disappointed to discover how many contractor companies are interwoven throughout Tesla. Often, it is like a Russian nesting doll of contractor, subcontractor, sub-subcontractor, etc. before you finally find someone doing actual work. This means a lot of middle-managers adding cost but not doing anything obviously useful. Also, many contracts are essentially open time & materials, not fixed price and duration, which creates an incentive to turn molehills into mountains, as they never want to end the money train.

There is a very wide range of contractor performance, from excellent to worse than a drunken sloth. All contracting companies should consider the coming week to be a final opportunity to demonstrate excellence. Any that fail to meet the Tesla standard of excellence will have their contracts ended on Monday.

Btw, here are a few productivity recommendations:

- Excessive meetings are the blight of big companies and almost always get worse over time. Please get of all large meetings, unless you’re certain they are providing value to the whole audience, in which case keep them very short.

- Also get rid of frequent meetings, unless you are dealing with an extremely urgent matter. Meeting frequency should drop rapidly once the urgent matter is resolved.

- Walk out of a meeting or drop off a call as soon as it is obvious you aren’t adding value. It is not rude to leave, it is rude to make someone stay and waste their time.

- Don’t use acronyms or nonsense words for objects, software or processes at Tesla. In general, anything that requires an explanation inhibits communication. We don’t want people to have to memorize a glossary just to function at Tesla.

- Communication should travel via the shortest path necessary to get the job done, not through the “chain of command”. Any manager who attempts to enforce chain of command communication will soon find themselves working elsewhere.

- A major source of issues is poor communication between depts. The way to solve this is allow free flow of information between all levels. If, in order to get something done between depts, an individual contributor has to talk to their manager, who talks to a director, who talks to a VP, who talks to another VP, who talks to a director, who talks to a manager, who talks to someone doing the actual work, then super dumb things will happen. It must be ok for people to talk directly and just make the right thing happen.

- In general, always pick common sense as your guide. If following a “company rule” is obviously ridiculous in a particular situation, such that it would make for a great Dilbert cartoon, then the rule should change.

If there is something you think should be done to make Tesla execute better or allow you to look forward to coming to work more (same thing in the long term), please send a note to [redacted]@tesla.com.

Thanks for being such a kickass team and accomplishing miracles every day. It matters. We are burning the midnight oil to burn the midnight oil.

Elon

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 18, 2018 5:49 pm
by Hillhater
So, the big "Gee Up" ...
Tripple output in the next few months...
Calls for quality 10x better than any other car maker...
New world wide cost controls and spend approvals limits...
Threats to fire contractors and suppliers...
You can feel the panic between the lines !
I would have liked to see the first draft of that Email also. :D

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 19, 2018 1:22 am
by TheBeastie
Aside from articles that claim Elon has ignored wasting billions of robots in areas of car manufacturing that more experienced car companies have long tested and failed to implement. There have been a few articles like this that say some folks who work at the Tesla factory live out of their car because the pay is so low.
And others complain that if you get injured on the job you basically stuffed and they won't compensate you, its like the same treatment you get when working in a factory in China.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/carolineodonov ... .jwQbdJojd

Re: Tesla Model 3

Posted: Apr 19, 2018 3:45 am
by Cephalotus
DasDouble wrote:
Apr 18, 2018 10:43 am
I would love to work for Tesla Germany...
Well, German car industry usually offers 35h/week jobs with 30 days (6 weeks) of paid holiday :-)

On the other hand German car industry does take its time to introduce new models.