Tesla Model 3

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Hillhater   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Jun 20 2018 8:56pm

Arlo1 wrote:
Jun 20 2018 10:26am
.....
#3 They are down to 3% cobalt and will be at 0% with the next gen batteries.
?? 0% Cobalt ! How exactly will they manage that ?
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Jun 21 2018 12:14am

Hillhater wrote:
Jun 20 2018 8:56pm
?? 0% Cobalt ! How exactly will they manage that ?
By going to lithium manganese oxide or a similar battery that does not use cobalt. More likely, though, if cobalt gets more expensive, they will simply switch to chemistries that use less cobalt.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Chalo » Jun 21 2018 1:28am

billvon wrote:
Jun 20 2018 6:27pm
But that's getting away from the topic at hand, which is the Model 3. No fires of Model 3's that I know of yet. About 150,000 regular (gas) cars catch on fire every year. (Including my college roommate's car, in a rather dramatic fashion while he was driving it one day.)
A friend and bandmate of mine recently lost his car when it caught fire while he was driving and burned completely. His bike was inside it, so he lost that too.

There were no news articles about it.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Jun 21 2018 1:46am

Hillhater wrote:
Jun 20 2018 8:56pm
Arlo1 wrote:
Jun 20 2018 10:26am
.....
#3 They are down to 3% cobalt and will be at 0% with the next gen batteries.
?? 0% Cobalt ! How exactly will they manage that ?
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpre ... more-34105
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Dauntless » Jun 21 2018 3:37am

billvon wrote:
Jun 20 2018 6:27pm
Coal - making American schools just a little more radioactive.
Just like you making ES a LOT more radio active.

No surprise you couldn't offer a use of those mining byproducts. But when have you ever had anything to offer other than your bad attitude?
billvon wrote:
Jun 20 2018 6:27pm
And I bet you still believe everything he says.
No Bill. You don't. You just tell yourself we'll believe you when you blither that. You wouldn't have the nerve to bet, or the knowledge of whether I ever believed anything. Or knowledge, period.
billvon wrote:
Jun 20 2018 6:27pm
Gotta start thinking for yourself, and not just swallow everything the right wing media tells you.
You gotta stat thinking, Bill. THINKING. Why would you make up something like the right wing media ever telling me anything? What a waste of a perfectly good night of being unable to sleep and encountering one of YOUR posts.

You remind me of another Bill I knew. This one was in fact a GOOD guy, really. Dying to be a class clown, just like me. So one time he says "Doug, next time you have a thought, KEEP IT TO YOURSELF!"

I responded "Bill, if you EVER have a thought, come rushing to tell me. I do not wish to miss this rare and unique moment."

So Bill was a bit stuck for a comeback right then, just as you would be. But it got worse. His long time best bud in the world suddenly said "Wait a minute, tell me too." So Bill gives him such a look and he says "At least when Doug has a thought, it's a REAL thought."

So Bill wound up saying "I guess I'll leave the humor to people who are good at it.+

Honesty helps. As Del Close said "Comedy is the truth." When you say 'That's funny,' it's the truth that's making you laugh. It's the lack of truth in what you say that keeps you from being funny. Or worth listening to. Oh, but if you DO ever have a thought, don't tell me. At least that other Bill was a GOOD guy.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Jun 21 2018 9:28am

billvon wrote:
Jun 21 2018 12:14am
Hillhater wrote:
Jun 20 2018 8:56pm
?? 0% Cobalt ! How exactly will they manage that ?
By going to lithium manganese oxide or a similar battery that does not use cobalt. More likely, though, if cobalt gets more expensive, they will simply switch to chemistries that use less cobalt.
Thats easy to say,..and Musk has to say it, for obvious reasons...
....but it is not so easy to do.
Most LMO cells incorporate cobalt boost performance since without ot the cells are low specific energy , and reduced cycle life., which is not someting many would accept..
Most experts, (eg J Goodenough). do not believe an acceptable lithium cell can be made without Cobalt.
It certainly cannot just be a "generational" development on the current Panasonic NCA chemistry.
FYI.." Less cobalt"...is not the same as 0% cobalt.
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parabellum   10 MW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by parabellum » Jun 21 2018 10:24am

I wonder what happens to those kids in Africa if Cobalt demand suddenly disappears.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Jun 21 2018 11:11am

Chalo wrote:
Jun 21 2018 1:28am
A friend and bandmate of mine recently lost his car when it caught fire while he was driving and burned completely. His bike was inside it, so he lost that too.

There were no news articles about it.
Yep. With gasoline powered cars, it's nothing unusual.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Jun 21 2018 11:20am

Hillhater wrote:
Jun 21 2018 9:28am
Thats easy to say,..and Musk has to say it, for obvious reasons...
....but it is not so easy to do.
Right - which is why people are willing to pay more for cobalt.
Most experts, (eg J Goodenough). do not believe an acceptable lithium cell can be made without Cobalt.
LiCo batteries give you 150-200 wh/kg. (call it 175.)
LiMn batteries give you 100-150 wh/kg (call it 125.)

So if you have a Tesla model S that gets 330 miles range, if you switched to LiMn, you'd get 235 miles range. Still seems acceptable.

What will more likely happen, though, is that they will reduce the amount of cobalt within the cell to reduce costs while still maintaining some of the benefits. So you'd see the longest-range model S get 300 miles of range instead of 330. Again, seems acceptable.
It certainly cannot just be a "generational" development on the current Panasonic NCA chemistry.
FYI.." Less cobalt"...is not the same as 0% cobalt.
Right. You could go to 0% cobalt, or you could just use less cobalt. Which one happens will depend on the cobalt supply.
I wonder what happens to those kids in Africa if Cobalt demand suddenly disappears.
Wait - I thought that kids mining cobalt was a humanitarian problem. Now kids NOT mining cobalt is a humanitarian problem?

In any case, I would guess they would mine something else. Or get a different job. Or stop working.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Jun 21 2018 11:21am

Dauntless wrote:
Jun 21 2018 3:37am
. . . .
Looks like Dauntless got triggered.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by parabellum » Jun 21 2018 12:08pm

billvon wrote:
Jun 21 2018 11:20am
In any case, I would guess they would mine something else. Or get a different job. Or stop working.
Or start starving on hunger and misery.
Or take guns and start killing people for food.
It all happened on African continent many times and ended in misery and blood bath.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by nicobie » Jun 21 2018 1:49pm

billvon wrote:
Jun 21 2018 11:21am

Looks like Dauntless got triggered.

So what else is new.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Jun 21 2018 2:38pm

parabellum wrote:
Jun 21 2018 12:08pm
Or start starving on hunger and misery.
Or take guns and start killing people for food.
It all happened on African continent many times and ended in misery and blood bath.
Perhaps. That suggests that the only good solution available to first world countries is to continue to buy cobalt from such places, but insist on a certain level of worker protections from any mine they purchase from.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Jun 21 2018 5:59pm

parabellum wrote:
Jun 21 2018 12:08pm
billvon wrote:
Jun 21 2018 11:20am
In any case, I would guess they would mine something else. Or get a different job. Or stop working.
Or start starving on hunger and misery.
Or take guns and start killing people for food.
It all happened on African continent many times and ended in misery and blood bath.
They need productive work to stimulate a stable economic society.
Lets help them by stimulating an industry for a product for which there is a huge and ever increasing market for and which Africa has lots of ....!
How about Coal mining ?
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Jun 21 2018 6:08pm

billvon wrote:
Jun 21 2018 2:38pm
parabellum wrote:
Jun 21 2018 12:08pm
Or start starving on hunger and misery.
Or take guns and start killing people for food.
It all happened on African continent many times and ended in misery and blood bath.
Perhaps. That suggests that the only good solution available to first world countries is to continue to buy cobalt from such places, but insist on a certain level of worker protections from any mine they purchase from.
Sadly, the world doesnt work like that .
Demand for cobalt will far outstrip demand, its value will multiply until it is like drug dealing..money corrupts all.
When you get close to that situation, all rules go by the wayside, normal market "negotiations" dont work, third and fourth world dealers ( and authorities) are involved , with black markets being almost the norm.
If you want to buy, it is on their terms , not yours.
Lets hope we can find a good alternative before it gets to that.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Jun 22 2018 12:26pm

Hillhater wrote:
Jun 21 2018 5:59pm
They need productive work to stimulate a stable economic society.
Lets help them by stimulating an industry for a product for which there is a huge and ever increasing market for and which Africa has lots of ....!
How about Coal mining ?
Bad idea if you want them to have a future. From Bloomberg NEF:

==============
Today coal makes up around 38% of global electricity generation, despite having already peaked in the U.S. and Europe, with China and India using coal for 66% and 79% of their electricity respectively.

However, as older plants retire and others get pushed out – first by an explosion of cheap wind and solar generation, then by cheap batteries – we think coal generation peaks globally in around 2027, before falling sharply to just 11% of world electricity by 2050.
==============


https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/#toc-download
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Warren » Jun 22 2018 2:13pm

Coal will be around for a long time yet. Natural gas is picking up. PV and wind are growing at huge percentages, Unfortunately, a huge increase in a tiny number is still tiny.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018 ... enewables/

All of the world's steel and concrete depend on coal.

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Dauntless   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Dauntless » Jul 02 2018 3:35pm

Any sufficiently advanced technology is INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM MAGIC!
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by -dg » Jul 03 2018 12:47am

billvon wrote:
Jun 21 2018 11:11am
Chalo wrote:
Jun 21 2018 1:28am
A friend and bandmate of mine recently lost his car when it caught fire while he was driving and burned completely. His bike was inside it, so he lost that too.

There were no news articles about it.
Yep. With gasoline powered cars, it's nothing unusual.
My car, well, actually my parents car, this was a while ago, caught on fire while I was driving it. Twice! The first time it was idling in a parking lot and stalled and spit back through the carburetor[0] (long long ago). The second time I was parking it and turned the wheel to the limit and the power steering hose cracked and sprayed all the fluid on the exhaust. I was on crutches at the time so it took me a while to get out. Fire truck put it out both times and it insurance paid to repair as it was fairly new. No new crew, no live tv, nothing.

[0] carburetor - french colloquial: don't frock with it.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by parabellum » Jul 03 2018 11:46am

Once, in 2008 I woke up in the morning because of people running and screaming on our condo parking lot, my neighbours car was on fire.
I was able to get in to my car and drive it away with minor bubbling starting on the paint-gob but we could not extinguish the fire on burning car whatever we did, we spent 4 extinguishers an tried to throw sand and water from the pool on top.
At the end, nothing was left but scorched can sheet and melted discs on the concrete.
Neighbour said, he just started the car and went back to his appt to get something he forgot, as he came back car was in flames.

Seen no news adds about. :)

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Dauntless » Jul 04 2018 12:50am

nicobie wrote:
Jun 21 2018 1:49pm
billvon wrote:
Jun 21 2018 11:21am

Looks like Dauntless got triggered.
So what else is new.
It seems simple harmonic motion is new to you two, even if you've always been the negative one.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM MAGIC!
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Jul 04 2018 2:26am

Hmm ? ..5000 per week !.. For the last week of the quarter..
..after borrowing crew and facilities from the Mod S and X production !
If this is like the 2500/ week that they tried for (but failed) at the end of Q1, then i suspect we can be dissapointed in the future.
They actually made 28,500 in the Q2 period (13 weeks ?) , so averaging less than 2200 per week for the Q2
...That is less than the "run rate" they targeted to make by the end of Q1 ! :roll:
Musk is lucky he has so many dumb investors and supporters who dont see through his "magic numbers" tricks.
Lets see how he does with his target of a 6000/week run rate by the end of this month .
Any normal production line has daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual production volume targets.
I wonder why Tesla never releases their monthly/quarterly targets ? And does anyone actually verify even these isolated weekly "records" ?

An interesting article in the NY Times..
In early June, Mr. Musk said Tesla was making 3,500 Model 3 sedans a week, and vowed to reach 5,000 a week by the end of June. ...
........., Tesla views its production line as a laboratory for untested techniques. In recent weeks, company executives concluded they could produce Model 3 underbodies with fewer spot welds than they had been using. The car is still held together by about 5,000 welds, but engineers concluded that some 300 were unnecessary and reprogrammed robots to assemble the steel underbody without them...
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/30/busi ... -musk.html
At that rate , with progressive increasing to the 5000/wk, they should have produced 20,000 units in june alone ?
....implying only 8500 were produced in the preceeding 9 weeks ! :roll:
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Jul 05 2018 12:18pm

Hillhater is a Tesla short! lol

They produced 7000 units for the last week of June as he said they would just over 5000 model 3s and just under 2000 model S/Xs
This proves they did not take any staff away from producing model S/Xs

They are not dumb they know they need these employees to produce Model 3s so they hired new employees for that line(s)

Hillhater I would love you see you and Elon in a room in a debate lMFAO he would OWN your ass! Or You and Luke!
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Don't keep them were you cant afford smoke or fire!
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Jul 05 2018 2:09pm

Arlo1 wrote:
Jul 05 2018 12:18pm
Hillhater I would love you see you and Elon in a room in a debate lMFAO he would OWN your ass! Or You and Luke!
Eh, he's better posting here. The people saying X is impossible should stay out of the way of the people actually doing X.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Jul 05 2018 7:33pm

Arlo1 wrote:
Jul 05 2018 12:18pm
Hillhater is a Tesla short! lol

They produced 7000 units for the last week of June as he said they would just over 5000 model 3s and just under 2000 model S/Xs
This proves they did not take any staff away from producing model S/Xs

They are not dumb they know they need these employees to produce Model 3s so they hired new employees for that line(s)

Hillhater I would love you see you and Elon in a room in a debate lMFAO he would OWN your ass! Or You and Luke!
I dont have, ..never had,...and will never have ...any Tesla shares...they are too high risk.
So you dont believe ANY of the numerous reports, even from Tesla employees, ?
Eyes closed, ? ..fingers in ears ? ..head between knees trying to ignor the world !
Why did they make so FEW M3s in Q2 ?... It should have been closer to 40,000 than the 28500 actual.
From musks own prediction they planned to make 20,000 in june alone !
He is a habitual liar aparently denying the reality around him.
They are constantly hiring new employees..400 per week.. Straight to the production line in the car park !
A production line which Tesla themselves said was assembled from "scrap equipment" !
I actually like Teslas cars...in the same way i like Ferraris... Truely impressive engineering creations, even if they are totally out of my Financial range.
The thing i dislike , and will continue to highlight , is the deceiptful conman who repeated tries to decieve all his dumb supporters into believing he is meeting any of his targets.
I would love to meet him, if only to verify what a cunning and nasty piece of work he is.
There is a reason why many of his exect team are quiting....many others undoubtedly locked in by financial commitments etc.
I do hope Tesla survives (but unlikely !), and i hope Musk keeps his word and takes that first Mars shuttle.. ( but he wont..more slippery words) ...on a one way trip
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