Tesla Model 3

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Hillhater   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Oct 01 2018 5:20pm

Arlo1 wrote:
Oct 01 2018 10:45am
Ok Hillhater NOW WHATS YOUR PROBLEM? ;)
no problem here...
But obviously still plenty in Freemont !
Whilst the headlines are all about "Record results" , and "Incredible numbers",.. the reality is somewhat different..
Just a reminder..
Originally they set a target of 200,000 by end of dec 2017 (10,000/ week ?)..
That was later revised to 5,000/week by end Dec'17.... :o
Later revised to 2000/week by end March '18 .... :shock:
Then, 6000/week by end of June ?? :roll:
Currently , (October) they are running at 4000/week,. :shock:
Dispite continuous reductions of production targets, they still repeatedly fail to meet them !
The product may be good,..but..
.... in manufacturing business terms they are a JOKE !
As a company they are truely impressive and worth studying as to how they remain solvent when they are so far off their business plan and at least a year ( probably 2 ?) behind their original production schedule.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by TheBeastie » Oct 02 2018 12:07am

I still on some level root for Tesla, I just feel that its important to have some kind of critical opinion instead of turning every social media site into some kind of Tesla lovers fanboi site, seems foolish to be that way.

Only thing I really don't like about Tesla car is the crushing hazard potential of being on an ebike and the possibility of being run over by EVs that are significantly more heavy in weight than traditional cars, it just means I have significantly less chance of surviving, and the idea that I got run over by mediocre autopilot technology that has a single standard optical lens camera to know where its going is unsettling I have to say.

I am also dubious on total emissions/pollution from the car from its initial manufacturing point of view, I think folks like environmentalist like Ozzie Zehner who have incredible insight into whats truly clean and what's not clean call EVs "bullshit" in general, but one could still argue EVs are a good start in general.

The distinguished New York Times put out a pretty interesting article on Tesla and the "funny smells" coming out of the company
Titled: Unraveling a Tesla Mystery: Lots (and Lots) of Parked Cars
Groups of new vehicles are being detected in unexplained locations across the country. Evidence being posted online has raised questions about production, logistics, quality and even demand.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/01/busi ... tions.html
Image

To me Elon's excuse that there is just a logistics problem is nothing but a decent IQ test question in reasoning and probabilities.
The problem against Elons excuse that its a mere "logistics problem" is that how could the company not know they were going to need to deliver EVs in the face of years of ramping up monthly car production, as even someone living in a cave in Afganistan has heard about the big 5000 cars a week goal from Tesla.

From the article. >
He attributed the problem to a shortage of trucks to haul cars around the country.

“That’s total nonsense,” said Mark B. Spiegel, a managing partner at Stanphyl Capital, which has a large position shorting Tesla. He is a vocal critic of the company and Mr. Musk on Twitter. “A quick search would reveal plenty of car hauler capacity. Perhaps Tesla doesn’t have the cash to pay for them.”

The Auto Haulers Association of America is not aware of any shortage of car haulers, nor of any other automakers that are having trouble shipping new vehicles. “There’s quite a few carrier companies in California,” said Guy Young, the association’s general manager.
<

While I don't short stocks, I see the argument in Tesla valuation being overvalued. Simply because there are always continuous "hidden costs" as Tesla grows, even if it's just "spending on logistics", so it needs to always invest more money and this big goal of making a profit keeps moving away like chasing a rainbow. This is why its all starting to smell a bit weird.

A lot of the most successful "smartest guys in the room" financial banks like the one Warren Buffet does all his business with, Goldman Sachs, have a significantly lower valuation of Tesla than what the market has right now.
These articles are all over the place, so there is no excuse, its more like a religious belief in Tesla rather than a numbers/logic one.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09- ... ice-target
I don't think *any* of these short sellers expect Tesla to be worthless, more like $195 valuation Goldman Sachs places on the stock.
I don't think this is an argument of whether Tesla business is viable, but rather is the Tesla stock price realistic being worth more than any other car maker in the world, which is what its stock price is valued at more or less right now https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/04/tesla ... automaker/

Mainstream media aren't going to reference Goldman Sachs valuation of Tesla because there is way more money telling the majority of folks what they like/want to hear. This is the reason "spectrum privilege" is a cancer on modern society.
spectrum_privilege_small.jpg
spectrum_privilege_small.jpg (59.14 KiB) Viewed 1100 times
The article above on Zerohedge which merely goes over a small portion of the Goldman Sachs Tesla report, shows Tesla has a comparatively huge amount of debt at $11.6billion compared to other car manufacturers.
And while it's easy to overlook the report's claims of new BEV competitors (Battery Electric Vehicle), just look at this list. And this list excludes "New EV entrants" which is an almost as big list with companies like BYD, Dyson and Fisker etc joining in on EV car market in 2019+.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default ... k=nh1dD4Tl
Image

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/why- ... se-2018-10
^ This article is a pretty good simple overview. This chart below makes some of the argument for Tesla being overvalued quite 'easily absorbable', making this easily absorbable just can't be done enough for people, that's why Twitter with its tiny character message limit exists and has been so successful, because most people just can't be bothered reading anything more than a sentence.
It never ceases to astound me how much people can ignore easily absorbable facts, even on this forum.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/why- ... se-2018-10
https://static.businessinsider.com/imag ... 8b5762.jpg
Image

Image
^I decided to include the "new entrants" EV list as well that's coming over the next few years, I understand logic behind not even including it with established vehicle manufactures who are coming online in merely 6 months in 2019, and I think this is the main reason for Elon's nutty behaviour recently, he knows, that all up, there is massive competition hitting him in less than a year and it only gets a lot worse in 18months time.
And being the worlds biggest battery maker isn't enough, as Panasonic through which he is partnered with, doesn't even allow him to own the technology that makes the batteries, its more of a business scenario where Tesla gets to rent lithium cell making equipment inside Tesla's giant manufacturing buildings, this is barely a "business moat" that Warren Buffet is famous for looking at when investing in businesses long term.
And long-term or at least the next few years is where stocks are valued/measured, not like measuring a solar panel energy delivery merely during 1pm on a sunny day during the peak of summer.

You can Google any of those 2019 (less than 6 months away) new BEV models on the list and see them for real and watch a review of it on Youtube etc
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/featur ... i-kona-ev/
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... a+Electric
Hyundai Kona Electric reviews on Youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9Y8Er6pxC8



Hyundai NEXO
https://youtu.be/EW7TFXwduYY

There must be 100's of reviews of the new Audi 2019 all electric range, there are 2 major models, the E-Tron SUV and the E-Tron Sportsback.
Audi e-tron SUV 2019
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... udi+e+tron
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9ltvl2zEyA


Aston Martin Rapide E all-electric model 2019
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/12/ast ... -electric/

BMW i3 electric car 2019
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... c+car+2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlC8uB37-AA
https://youtu.be/8NGeM_rdeSU

BMW i3s EV vs Mini Countryman Cooper S Electric


Ford 2020
https://www.motorauthority.com/news/111 ... -spy-shots

Jaguar I-Pace SUV 2019 in-depth review
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... uar+i+pace
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FILPOpickH4
https://youtu.be/PlF7Xz8MVXM


Mercedes EQC electric SUV 2019
https://youtu.be/PF_WUF2lOsg
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... rcedes+eqc
https://youtu.be/Y7ZjkoJgXWk


Porsche Taycan
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... che+taycan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4xJ-4piQxI

Porsche Mission E
https://youtu.be/HCdKezPKPIM?t=49s

The amount of Hybrid EV options is now ridiculous with very refined cars, a lot of people are buying these. Seems like just like so many other things in being "green" what only really matters is how green you appear.
Porsche Panamera 4 E-Hybrid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjku9-q3_fw


2019 Nissan LEAF
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... ectric+car
https://youtu.be/vXsYZh0Q4ok

Volkswagen I.D. Crozz SUV REVIEW 2019
https://youtu.be/DETZNTPml7M
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... n+id+crozz

Volvo Polestar 2019
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... o+polestar
https://youtu.be/SR5WrfAb39U
https://www.engadget.com/2018/07/24/pol ... t-details/
https://www.businessinsider.com/volvos- ... ?r=AU&IR=T

Peugeot readying pure-electric 208 GTi for 2019
https://www.motoring.com.au/peugeot-rea ... 19-113521/
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... ot+208+GTi

https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/2/1792 ... rice-range

*Add*
So much stuff out there about Tesla its amazing, there is even a guy dedicated to making sketch cartoons about Elon/Tesla
https://twitter.com/FairDinkumCap
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Last edited by TheBeastie on Oct 04 2018 1:55am, edited 33 times in total.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Chalo » Oct 02 2018 1:12am

The reason Tesla is so "overvalued" by conventional analysis is because investors understand that the heavy hitters of the industry have painted themselves into a shrinking corner, and they don't have the aptitude or the disposition to escape their old ways and save themselves. Tesla stands to pick up the pieces and lead the world. Maybe they'll make good on the opportunity, and maybe they won't. But betting on the proven players in the automotive space is just stupid. And betting that lazy sacks of shit will stop buying cars is also folly.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Oct 02 2018 11:59am

Hillhater wrote:
Oct 01 2018 5:20pm
The product may be good,..but..
.... in manufacturing business terms they are a JOKE !
EV/PHEV sales for 2018 so far:

Tesla Model 3 - 78,132
Toyota Prius Prime - 20,523
Tesla Model S - 18,395
Tesla Model X - 17,575
Chevrolet Volt - 13,243
Chevrolet Bolt EV - 11,807
Honda Clarity PHEV - 11,632
Nissan LEAF - 10,686
Ford Fusion Energi - 5,200

Telsa may well be a JOKE - but if so, they are in good company. They are much less of a JOKE than Ford, Toyota, Chevy, Honda and Nissan when it comes to manufacturing EV's.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Oct 02 2018 5:16pm

TheBeastie wrote:
Oct 02 2018 12:07am
I still on some level root for Tesla, I just feel that its important to have some kind of critical opinion instead of turning every social media site into some kind of Tesla lovers fanboi site, seems foolish to be that way.
Its funny how you use charts showing market cap and sales that are 2 years old.

Also show all these amazing EVs planned for 2019 or later... and its like you think Tesla will just stop stagnated and dead in the water where they are for the next 2 years while these companies drag their feet to get out these EVs they claim to be bringing.
Remember I have been watching companies like GM and many others claim they are bringing something for a BEV to market since 2008 and in the mean time Tesla went from selling a few hundred roadsters to where they are now. All these other companies had the upper hand as they had the factories and the R&D departments and cash flow ready to go and yet who has the TOP 3 SELLING EVs SOLD TODAY?
Given the ground they have covered without going bankrupt like the media claimed they would be many times and they are positioned to squash all EV selling competition and in time all ICE sales as well. Its really stupid to bet against tesla.

I might be called a fan boy but I am not. I am just sick of the BS and FUD the mainstream media tries to cram down everyone's throats.

I am PRO EV and if another company brings out a better EV I can afford then a Tesla I would consider the purchase but how many years are they claiming to be away from bringing out the "Tesla Killer"?
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Oct 02 2018 5:18pm

Also how many other car companies have their own in house battery production?

Tesla is an energy company and they are sneeking into that industry under the radar as a car company.

This is just starting to get exciting!
My Leaf motor controller build. http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewto ... 27#p963227
My YSR build http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRo8r5g4NBg
RC and most types of Lithium batteries you MUST know your individual cell voltages charging and discharging.
Don't keep them were you cant afford smoke or fire!
Never above 4.2v never below 2.7v EVER!!!
Support me on Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/user/posts?u=6842045
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Ohbse » Oct 02 2018 6:57pm

Hillhater wrote:
Sep 30 2018 6:13pm
Q3 is done , and the numbers are becoming apparent..
Production goal achieved ?..... Hardly !
Even if they reach that 53,000 count, that is still below theiir own (reduced) target of 55,000.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tesl ... ?r=US&IR=T

55,840 Model 3's delivered for the quarter

53,239 produced. Production guidance end of last quarter was 50-55k. Seems pretty on target to me.

Earnings report will be very interesting, given that the last whole week is all AWD and performance production, I'm sure the margins will be pretty good.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Oct 03 2018 10:51am

Yup sorry Hillhater but you are wrong as first off the delivered >55000 model 3s and that's not production numbers which are higher but they are working on the legistics of delivering so many cars. Still more then they said as it was stated they would get 50000-55000 this 1/4. https://insideevs.com/tesla-q3-producti ... ses-80000/
My Leaf motor controller build. http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewto ... 27#p963227
My YSR build http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRo8r5g4NBg
RC and most types of Lithium batteries you MUST know your individual cell voltages charging and discharging.
Don't keep them were you cant afford smoke or fire!
Never above 4.2v never below 2.7v EVER!!!
Support me on Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/user/posts?u=6842045
http://www.undergroundelectrics.ca/

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liveforphysics   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by liveforphysics » Oct 03 2018 1:21pm

Tesla can already make volume of EVs.

Automakers that show signs of concern would be:

Porsche, the mission E was supposed to go to mfg in 2016, then 2017, then 2018, then 2019, and now 2020. Ironically by 2020 the new Tesla Roadster makes it seem pathetic.

VW has only made compliance cars using gas vehicle chassis with largely off the shelf purchased drivetrain solutions.

Audi has been talking about their E tron supercar now since 2012, but only have offered gas car chassis conversion drivetrain EVs that actually reached production.

GM made a brilliant call and had LG chem handle all EV powertrain development and manufacturing for them. This is short term brilliant, but is actually LG chems capabilites and LG doesn't need their brand name.

Honda and Toyota have been my favorite OEMs for decades, but both will be irrelevant/failed in a rapid transition to pure EV market, with Toyota and Honda both drinking the oil company Hydrogen kool-aid.

Ford makes a cottage industry amount of gas car chassis conversions for California compliance.

Those OEMs not making whole-assed EV programs at this time seem unlikely to be relevant in the vehicle marketplace in 3-5years. The transition from AM to FM for music was faster than experts predicted, CRT monitors to flat monitors, desktop PCs to laptops, laptops to phones. All these things experts made charts about how it would fit some gentle curve of adopting over a decade. The reality is that what people want to buy is capable of changing as rapidly as awareness is gained.

People made ICE gas engine bicycles as well as electric bicycles (NiCd or Pb) 50+years ago. At that time, the ICE bike was stinky and loud and vibrates and makes minimal starting torque, but the ebike was heavy and short range. Fast forward to today, the ICE bike is still stinky and loud and vibrates just like it did 50 years ago, but the ebike is capable of being as fast and torquey and silent and low maintenance as you want to build it to be.

Just like most of us would never consider riding an ICE gas engine bicycle because it offers a torqueless obnoxious toxic/poisoning riding experience, this too happens with people who experience whole-assed effort EV cars like Teslas. Driving any ICE cars after just feels like a Rube Goldberg contraption of noisy heat and toxic gas spewing in return for pathetic torque and always being outside the powerband and having interrupts in torque delivery.

Mastery of systems in the ICE vehicle to vehicle makers will be as useful as mastery of record player design or VCR design or CRT display design. You could be the best in the world at it and won't be worth a cup of coffee.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Oct 03 2018 2:45pm

liveforphysics wrote:
Oct 03 2018 1:21pm
Mastery of systems in the ICE vehicle to vehicle makers will be as useful as mastery of record player design or VCR design or CRT display design. You could be the best in the world at it and won't be worth a cup of coffee.
Disagree. The people who "mastered" music player design (like record players) are now making Ipods. As the technology improved, so did their designs, from record players to tape players to CD players to hard drive based players to FLASH based players.

Same will happen with ICE engines. They will continue to get more efficient, cleaner and lighter. My current car has an Atkinson-cycle engine and gets around 300mpg (mostly runs on battery.) Future cars might have rotary, or disk-based, or free piston engines. They might run on gasoline, or diesel, or natural gas. Heck, a future ebike might come with an optional two-pound, 400 watt free piston range booster. And if that drives greater adoption of ebikes (by reducing range anxiety, and making an "average" ebike cheaper) then that's a good thing overall.

50 years ago there were two kinds of people:
1) "No one wants a portable music player! That's just stupid. It's a dead end."
2) "Adoption rates are low because players suck. We should make a better one."

In general the people in category 2) win in the long run.

All that being said, EV's will continue to grow until they make up a large part of the overall vehicle population. I predict that within 20 years, EV's (including HEV's, PHEV's and BEV's) will make up more than half the cars out there.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by liveforphysics » Oct 03 2018 3:29pm

billvon wrote:
Oct 03 2018 2:45pm
liveforphysics wrote:
Oct 03 2018 1:21pm
Mastery of systems in the ICE vehicle to vehicle makers will be as useful as mastery of record player design or VCR design or CRT display design. You could be the best in the world at it and won't be worth a cup of coffee.
Disagree. The people who "mastered" music player design (like record players) are now making Ipods. As the technology improved, so did their designs, from record players to tape players to CD players to hard drive based players to FLASH based players.

Same will happen with ICE engines. They will continue to get more efficient, cleaner and lighter. My current car has an Atkinson-cycle engine and gets around 300mpg (mostly runs on battery.) Future cars might have rotary, or disk-based, or free piston engines. They might run on gasoline, or diesel, or natural gas. Heck, a future ebike might come with an optional two-pound, 400 watt free piston range booster. And if that drives greater adoption of ebikes (by reducing range anxiety, and making an "average" ebike cheaper) then that's a good thing overall.

50 years ago there were two kinds of people:
1) "No one wants a portable music player! That's just stupid. It's a dead end."
2) "Adoption rates are low because players suck. We should make a better one."

In general the people in category 2) win in the long run.

All that being said, EV's will continue to grow until they make up a large part of the overall vehicle population. I predict that within 20 years, EV's (including HEV's, PHEV's and BEV's) will make up more than half the cars out there.

That's a rational and well stated response Bill, just like so many Ivy league experts who made technology adoption predictions in the past.

The moment people recognize the atmospheres direct relationship with their own blood, stopping wanting to burn things happens faster than 20 years.
Each carcinogen vapor exposure includes a dice roll for cancer.

Each mutagen vapor exposure includes a dice roll for reproductive genetic defects in your children.

Each engine start sprays them into a shared atmosphere which includes beings not offered an opportunity to consent accepting these cancer experiences and defective genetics life experiences.

Every post is a free gift to the collective of minds composing the living bleeding edge of LEV development on our spaceship.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Oct 03 2018 3:38pm

liveforphysics wrote:
Oct 03 2018 3:29pm
The moment people recognize the atmospheres direct relationship with their own blood, stopping wanting to burn things happens faster than 20 years.
What's wrong with burning things? Forests have been burning for millennia. Indeed,there would be no lodgepole pines or eucalyptus without regular fires.

There is, of course, a problem with too much CO2 and too much pollution. Fortunately, solutions like biogas, biodiesel and sugar cane ethanol solve those problems without having to give up ICE engines. They are all expensive - but when your car gets 300mpg you can afford to spend $10 a gallon on gas.

Remember back in 2000 or so when peak oil was going to come in 2010, and we were all going to starve when the tractors stopped running, the water pumps stopped running and the trucks stopped delivering food? I even still have a chart printed in 2001 that shows all the estimates of when we'd hit peak oil (somewhere between 2005 and 2025.) Then tight oil (a technological solution) came along, and suddenly we had more recoverable oil. Technology often solves problems that everyone assumes are insoluble.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by liveforphysics » Oct 03 2018 4:31pm

Burning carcinogenic mutagens and spraying them in unburned form and the resulting millions of deaths will still seem like a fools bargain with no excuses even at 300mpg to the unconsenting people around you dosed with toxic vapors everytime your range extender starts with a cold catalyst surface. This is the social change of what becomes unacceptable life behavior choices that spreads at the speed of awareness, which doesn't take decades or even years to happen in this era.

If you're burning the handful of things you would be comfortable burning in the atmosphere of your own submarine, and you ensure complete combustion of them, it's not a problem.
Each carcinogen vapor exposure includes a dice roll for cancer.

Each mutagen vapor exposure includes a dice roll for reproductive genetic defects in your children.

Each engine start sprays them into a shared atmosphere which includes beings not offered an opportunity to consent accepting these cancer experiences and defective genetics life experiences.

Every post is a free gift to the collective of minds composing the living bleeding edge of LEV development on our spaceship.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Chalo » Oct 03 2018 4:58pm

billvon wrote:
Oct 03 2018 3:38pm
I even still have a chart printed in 2001 that shows all the estimates of when we'd hit peak oil (somewhere between 2005 and 2025.) Then tight oil (a technological solution) came along, and suddenly we had more recoverable oil. Technology often solves problems that everyone assumes are insoluble.
That wasn't a solution; it was a stopgap measure that made the problem worse and harder to solve.
This is to express my gratitude to Justin of Grin Technologies for his extraordinary measures to save this forum for the benefit of all.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Oct 03 2018 5:02pm

Chalo wrote:
Oct 03 2018 4:58pm
That wasn't a solution; it was a stopgap measure that made the problem worse and harder to solve.
If you like. There will be other stopgap solutions before we get to the holy grail of energy - perhaps fusion. Before that happens, we have at least several decades of ICE engines.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Oct 03 2018 5:07pm

liveforphysics wrote:
Oct 03 2018 4:31pm
Burning carcinogenic mutagens and spraying them in unburned form and the resulting millions of deaths will still seem like a fools bargain . . . .
In the US, that number is down to 50,000 from about a million a year 30 years ago - and 90% of pollutants from cars today come from cars older than 10 years. Fortunately, new cars no longer "spray them in unburned form." And by moving to fuels like methane (biogas) you eliminate any carcinogens in the fuel stream.
with no excuses even at 300mpg to the unconsenting people around you dosed with toxic vapors everytime your range extender starts with a cold catalyst surface.
Yep. And every time your furnace starts up you dose the people near you with toxic, deadly carcinogens. (If you have all electric, of course, you dose the people near the power plant.) But you are likely OK with that.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Oct 03 2018 5:09pm

liveforphysics wrote:
Oct 03 2018 4:31pm
Burning carcinogenic mutagens and spraying them in unburned form and the resulting millions of deaths .......
Some believe the biggest threat to the survival of our civilisation, is the actual size of the population itself.
Maybe the poisnous byproducts of increasing combustion processes, is Natures way of quietly balancing things out to prevent a much worse end result ? ...IE Starvation, water wars, social meltdown, Nuclear conflict, etc etc. :shock:
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Hillhater   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Oct 03 2018 5:43pm

Arlo1 wrote:
Oct 03 2018 10:51am
Yup sorry Hillhater but you are wrong as first off the delivered >55000 model 3s and that's not production numbers .
..... https://insideevs.com/tesla-q3-producti ... ses-80000/
Yep , i guess we should break out the champane and celebrate at last.....
....celebrate that Tesla have for once figured out how to set a realistic forcast,...... even if it is by reducing the forecast significantly, and they are still way off previous predictions and struggling with production :shock:
...... Remember that 10,000/week by Dec '17 ?
Or even just that dramatically reduced 6000/week for July '18 ?
This 53,240 number for Q3 implies a rate of less than 4100/week ( they claim to have a best of 5300/week)
Why are you so easily impressed ?
Arlo1 wrote:
Oct 03 2018 10:51am
....how many other car companies have their own in house battery production ?....
Nissan (3 battery plants) , BYD, BMW,, ...and probably others ...
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billvon   10 MW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Oct 03 2018 5:51pm

Hillhater wrote:
Oct 03 2018 5:43pm
Nissan (3 battery plants) , BYD, BMW,, ...and probably others ...
Cool! Give them a few years and they might catch up to Tesla, if they're lucky.
--bill von

Hillhater   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Oct 03 2018 6:41pm

billvon wrote:
Oct 03 2018 5:51pm
Hillhater wrote:
Oct 03 2018 5:43pm
Nissan (3 battery plants) , BYD, BMW,, ...and probably others ...
Cool! Give them a few years and they might catch up to Tesla, if they're lucky.
?? :?: .BYD are just commissioning another EV battery plant thatis reported to give them a 60GWh annual capacity by year end.
Tesla Tweeted on Aug 3rd...
GFactory 1 battery production has reached an annualized run rate of ≈20 GWh -
With a target of 35 GWh by year end ?
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billvon   10 MW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Oct 03 2018 6:57pm

Hillhater wrote:
Oct 03 2018 6:41pm
?? :?: .BYD are just commissioning another EV battery plant thatis reported to give them a 60GWh annual capacity by year end.
Excellent. BYD, of course, is the company making grid scale backup batteries, rather than EV batteries. So we're getting multiple gigafactories of capacity added per year already.

I recall you saying we'd need hundreds of gigafactories to store enough energy to significantly reduce fossil fuel generation. We are off to a great start.
--bill von

Hillhater   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Oct 03 2018 7:30pm

billvon wrote:
Oct 03 2018 6:57pm
?...BYD, of course, is the company making grid scale backup batteries, rather than EV batteries. .....
BYD certainly make grid back up batteries, but these plants are reported to be for their EV business. .. (which i assume would be a different chemistry/ format ?)
BYD themselves have a 25% market share of the 1m+ Chinese EV sales, and also supply batteries to other EV manufacturers.
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Arlo1   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Oct 03 2018 7:44pm

Hillhater wrote:
Oct 03 2018 5:43pm
Arlo1 wrote:
Oct 03 2018 10:51am
Yup sorry Hillhater but you are wrong as first off the delivered >55000 model 3s and that's not production numbers .
..... https://insideevs.com/tesla-q3-producti ... ses-80000/
Yep , i guess we should break out the champane and celebrate at last.....
....celebrate that Tesla have for once figured out how to set a realistic forcast,...... even if it is by reducing the forecast significantly, and they are still way off previous predictions and struggling with production :shock:
...... Remember that 10,000/week by Dec '17 ?
Or even just that dramatically reduced 6000/week for July '18 ?
This 53,240 number for Q3 implies a rate of less than 4100/week ( they claim to have a best of 5300/week)
Why are you so easily impressed ?
Arlo1 wrote:
Oct 03 2018 10:51am
....how many other car companies have their own in house battery production ?....
Nissan (3 battery plants) , BYD, BMW,, ...and probably others ...
Nissan sold off their battery plants I don't think BMW does their own either

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/111 ... y-business
My Leaf motor controller build. http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewto ... 27#p963227
My YSR build http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRo8r5g4NBg
RC and most types of Lithium batteries you MUST know your individual cell voltages charging and discharging.
Don't keep them were you cant afford smoke or fire!
Never above 4.2v never below 2.7v EVER!!!
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Arlo1   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Oct 04 2018 1:21pm

Clearly not making their own. As far as I know Tesla is the only EV company making their own battery.
http://canada.autonews.com/article/2018 ... tery-cells
My Leaf motor controller build. http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewto ... 27#p963227
My YSR build http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRo8r5g4NBg
RC and most types of Lithium batteries you MUST know your individual cell voltages charging and discharging.
Don't keep them were you cant afford smoke or fire!
Never above 4.2v never below 2.7v EVER!!!
Support me on Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/user/posts?u=6842045
http://www.undergroundelectrics.ca/

markz   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by markz » Oct 05 2018 4:08am

Chalo wrote:
Oct 03 2018 4:58pm
billvon wrote:
Oct 03 2018 3:38pm
I even still have a chart printed in 2001 that shows all the estimates of when we'd hit peak oil (somewhere between 2005 and 2025.) Then tight oil (a technological solution) came along, and suddenly we had more recoverable oil. Technology often solves problems that everyone assumes are insoluble.
That wasn't a solution; it was a stopgap measure that made the problem worse and harder to solve.
Bill Nye the Engineer and Science Guy teams up with Neil D. Tyson and claims we will never run out of oil. Star Talk radio.

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