Tesla Model 3

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Hillhater   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 03 2019 4:16am

$100/kWh for 18650 Tesla cells implies approx 83 cells. (12Wh per cell). And hence $1.20 per cell.
Electrek states ther are 7-9 kg of cobalt in a 70 kWh Tesla pack...so approx 0.11 kg per kWh
And with 83 cells, that means approx 0.0013 kg per cell
At $30,000/tonne for cobalt, that represents $0.0397 per cell.....or 3.3 percent of that $1.20 cell cost.

Compare lithium with 63 kg in a 70kWh pack =0.9kg/kWh....0.011kg per cell
At only $15,000/tonne, that represents $0.16 per cell.......4 times the value of Cobalt .

Just scale the $$s up by 1.5 for the 21700 cell costs (approx)

The problem with cobalt is not its cost, but its availability in the future.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by cricketo » Apr 03 2019 10:25am

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 03 2019 4:16am
Electrek states ther are 7-9 kg of cobalt in a 70 kWh Tesla pack...so approx 0.11 kg per kWh
Isn't that after Cobalt reduction? Now you probably want to compare those numbers to the cells of another
vendor (or even non-Tesla Panasonic) to determine possible cost differences driven by Cobalt.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 03 2019 5:28pm

cricketo wrote:
Apr 03 2019 10:25am
Hillhater wrote:
Apr 03 2019 4:16am
Electrek states ther are 7-9 kg of cobalt in a 70 kWh Tesla pack...so approx 0.11 kg per kWh
Isn't that after Cobalt reduction? Now you probably want to compare those numbers to the cells of another
vendor (or even non-Tesla Panasonic) to determine possible cost differences driven by Cobalt.
Im sure its not the latest reduced cobalt cell, since that Electrek article is 3 years old..
https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdow ... ottleneck/
I suspect Tesla are not the only company using an 8 1 1 formula, and as i said ..the fact is that Cobalt is not the major cost factor that it could have been when its cost was $80,000/tonne and increasing .
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by cricketo » Apr 03 2019 5:35pm

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 03 2019 5:28pm
I suspect Tesla are not the only company using an 8 1 1 formula, and as i said ..
Once again, Tesla is not using 8:1:1. I admit, I wasn't paying attention to the math you did above, only to the following conclusion. So if in fact the numbers predate the current formulation, then the conclusion is probably misleading as well. The newer article I've referenced states that :
Frank Blome, Head of the Center of Excellence for Battery Cells at Volkswagen, noted to the publication that the batteries for the Volkswagen I.D.3 (a car formerly dubbed the ID Neo) contain 12-14% cobalt. In comparison, Tesla has succeeded in reducing the cobalt content of the Model 3’s batteries to just 2.8% as of last year

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 03 2019 9:10pm

Was not suggesting that Tesla is using a 8:1;1 chemistry...as that is generally a reference to NMC chemistry, and we all know Tesla is using NCA technology.
My calculation (estimate ?) was based on the Electreck statement of 7-9 kg of Cobalt in a 70kWh Tesla pack
Musk himself has also been quoted as saying there is 3% cobalt in their cells
However, the calculation is basicly the same for 8:1:1 NMC since the ratio of Nickel to Cobalt is very similar.
Incidentally, since we know there is approx 6-8 times as much nickel as Cobalt, we can estimate there is 0.008kg of nickel in a 18650 cell. At only $10,000/tonne that implies its “value” per cell is $0.08.... (Twice the value of Cobalt !)
Here are some other details from Teslarati..
Image
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery ... -industry/

With 4.5kg in a 4416 cell Model3 pack, that means 0.00102 kg/cell
And @ $30,000/tonne,..$0.03 /cell.

Its odd that statement that VW has 12-15% Cobalt in its EV cells, since it is well known that they use LG’s 6:2:2 NMC chemistry, which would suggest a 20% Cobalt content in the Cathode...not hugely greater than the 15% Electrek reported in Teslas NCA cell Cathode ? And VW plan to be using the 8:1:1 LG cell by next year so they will be pretty much at the same 3% total cobalt in the cell as Tesla.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Punx0r » Apr 04 2019 2:25am

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 03 2019 4:16am
The problem with cobalt is not its cost, but its availability in the future.
A lack of availability of a required resource makes it expensive: supply-demand. It's also a risk, which business doesn't like because they are expensive either to mitigate or to deal with the consequences of.
Hillhater wrote:
Apr 03 2019 5:28pm
the fact is that Cobalt is not the major cost factor that it could have been when its cost was $80,000/tonne and increasing .
So the commodity price is also unstable. See above about risk.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Chalo » Apr 04 2019 9:06am

Punx0r wrote:
Apr 04 2019 2:25am
Hillhater wrote:
Apr 03 2019 4:16am
The problem with cobalt is not its cost, but its availability in the future.
A lack of availability of a required resource makes it expensive: supply-demand. It's also a risk, which business doesn't like because they are expensive either to mitigate or to deal with the consequences of.
If you're familiar with Hillhater's posts, you'll know he's really not into planning for the future to better cope with upcoming changes.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by TheBeastie » Apr 04 2019 10:06am

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 03 2019 4:16am
$100/kWh for 18650 Tesla cells implies approx 83 cells. (12Wh per cell). And hence $1.20 per cell.
Electrek states ther are 7-9 kg of cobalt in a 70 kWh Tesla pack...so approx 0.11 kg per kWh
And with 83 cells, that means approx 0.0013 kg per cell
At $30,000/tonne for cobalt, that represents $0.0397 per cell.....or 3.3 percent of that $1.20 cell cost.

Compare lithium with 63 kg in a 70kWh pack =0.9kg/kWh....0.011kg per cell
At only $15,000/tonne, that represents $0.16 per cell.......4 times the value of Cobalt .

Just scale the $$s up by 1.5 for the 21700 cell costs (approx)

The problem with cobalt is not its cost, but its availability in the future.
Thats a good breakdown of it all.

The problem I see is that the reduction of cobalt is possibly merely just another empty promise from Elon Musks that often end up being lies.

If you follow this guy who has made it his lifes work to find every dirty lie Musk as done, its hard to believe anything from Elon Musk, especially easily hideable cobalt levels in the lithium cells.
https://twitter.com/markbspiegel

Tesla stock price is down almost 10% today because their 1st quarter production/sales numbers came out and they were terrible.
And the big wall street guys think its price target is around $200. That's from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.

Tesla analysts are piling on after disappointing delivery numbers sent the stock plunging
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1028086767

Tesla just undermined Elon Musk’s defense against the SEC
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/04/tesla-j ... -says.html
^This story is even more interesting, Elon's various lies or extremely off the mark production/delivery guidance, and his claim to Tesla private at $420 tweets etc is very serious and has only begun in the courts.
Normally someone whos a CEO who has done what Musk has done would be forced to out as CEO of the publically listed company, but because Musk is basically a celebrity he has got special privileges like Jussie Smollett and can avoid punishment.

But there is a chance today the court of law is going to force him to step down as CEO, it's still 50% of what happens later today simply because he has celebrity privileges but normally a CEO who has done what he has done wouldn't even be allowed to work at the company any more.

Tesla is down almost 10% merely because of the crap delivery figures, but if Musk is unlucky enough to be treated like a regular no-body CEO he will be out of Tesla at least to some degree as well, this might not happen today as the court might date the decision for another day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE
Elon Musk pretty much slipping out of his court problems for about 2 weeks. Again the experts say if this was a more boring "nobody CEO" then he would have been forced to step down as CEO of Tesla at a bare minimum.
This was expected to be a Jussie Smollett celebrity privilege above the law situation and so far this has been repeated for Musk.

But if suddenly this judge changes her mind and treats Musk like a regular CEO then Tesla stock could drop dramatically if Musk is forced out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8qt5Q8nT-g

Tesla Is Like a Soviet Factory: Production With No Concern for Actual Demand
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tes ... s-14917730

https://twitter.com/TeslaCharts/status/ ... 3419390977
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by cricketo » Apr 04 2019 10:21am

TheBeastie wrote:
Apr 04 2019 10:06am
The problem I see is that the reduction of cobalt is possibly merely just another empty promise from Elon Musks that often end up being lies.
It's good to know where you stand. But do you have anything to backup your suggestion that Tesla's lowest Cobalt content in the industry is just a lie ? I imagine such claim can easily be verified in a lab, which I bet many competitors have done - attempted to reverse-engineer Tesla's cells.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Apr 04 2019 5:44pm

TheBeastie wrote:
Apr 04 2019 10:06am
The problem I see is that the reduction of cobalt is possibly merely just another empty promise from Elon Musks that often end up being lies.

If you follow this guy who has made it his lifes work to find every dirty lie Musk as done, its hard to believe anything from Elon Musk, especially easily hideable cobalt levels in the lithium cells.
Except for the fact that it's happening. Other than that, yeah, hate him all you want.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Chalo » Apr 04 2019 6:04pm

billvon wrote:
Apr 04 2019 5:44pm
TheBeastie wrote:
Apr 04 2019 10:06am
The problem I see is that the reduction of cobalt is possibly merely just another empty promise from Elon Musks that often end up being lies.

If you follow this guy who has made it his lifes work to find every dirty lie Musk as done, its hard to believe anything from Elon Musk, especially easily hideable cobalt levels in the lithium cells.
Except for the fact that it's happening. Other than that, yeah, hate him all you want.
I don't think of anybody in the automotive business as a good guy, or even a neutral guy. But all the same, it must be difficult for Hillhater and Beastie to divest so hard from the future of their species and the civilized world.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 04 2019 8:17pm

cricketo wrote:
Apr 04 2019 10:21am
TheBeastie wrote:
Apr 04 2019 10:06am
The problem I see is that the reduction of cobalt is possibly merely just another empty promise from Elon Musks that often end up being lies.
It's good to know where you stand. But do you have anything to backup your suggestion that Tesla's lowest Cobalt content in the industry is just a lie ? I imagine such claim can easily be verified in a lab, which I bet many competitors have done - attempted to reverse-engineer Tesla's cells.
Bahaha he is so far out to lunch it's not even funny.
There is lots of people dismantling other companies cells to see what's inside and if Tesla was lying it would be all over the media by now. Just look at how any little detail the paid media will post about something trying to disprove Tesla.

So much BS from this guy it's not even funny. Tesla's numbers for Q1 were frocking amazing they are up 110% from last year. with over 10k of the cars in transit. When Tesla has a 1/4 that's slower then the same 1/4 of the previous year It will be a sign they are ether slowing down their growth or the economy is slowing down. But as long as they are doing more then the same time the last year then they are doing awesome.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 05 2019 4:29am

Arlo1 wrote:
Apr 04 2019 8:17pm
So much BS from this guy it's not even funny. Tesla's numbers for Q1 were frocking amazing they are up 110% from last year. with over 10k of the cars in transit. When Tesla has a 1/4 that's slower then the same 1/4 of the previous year It will be a sign they are ether slowing down their growth or the economy is slowing down. But as long as they are doing more then the same time the last year then they are doing awesome.
You are easily impressed !
Unfortunately , not everyone is a gullible Tesla fanboy who has difficulty understanding business forcasts. :roll:
Of course Q1 this year was much better than last year..because last year was a total disaster, even allowing for it being still in start up mode.
Production during this Q1 ran at a rate of less than 5000 per week again..a figure they claimed they would exceed 12 months ago .
Tesla produced fewer M3s in Q1 this year (63,000), than they forecast to make in Q1 last year (72,000) !!
And despite frequent downward revisions of their production forecasts they produced 20+% LESS in Q1 this year than than market expectations , ..hence the drop in share price.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by raylo32 » Apr 05 2019 6:12am

I am a Tesla skeptic mainly because I don't believe electric cars can really ever serve on a large scale for all purpose duty beyond drivers' local commuting areas and that if/when this segment becomes profitable the major car makers will eat Tesla's lunch. But... the model 3 subjectively seems to be selling pretty well for now. I was out and about yesterday on my motorcycle (not my e-bike!) and did about 60 miles in and around the Maryland suburban and country areas here near Washington DC. I counted 12 Model 3s along the way, many headed out to the country for what had to be pretty lengthy commutes. Granted this is a higher income area with a fair number of early adopters. But this is a big change from the days when just Model S and X were on offer. Those were and are relatively rare sightings.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by fechter » Apr 05 2019 8:56am

I got a chance to test drive a model 3 recently. Wicked fast acceleration and amazing technology. I was really impressed. It's still a little too expensive for me, but getting close.
"One test is worth a thousand opinions"

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 05 2019 2:08pm

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 05 2019 4:29am
Arlo1 wrote:
Apr 04 2019 8:17pm
So much BS from this guy it's not even funny. Tesla's numbers for Q1 were frocking amazing they are up 110% from last year. with over 10k of the cars in transit. When Tesla has a 1/4 that's slower then the same 1/4 of the previous year It will be a sign they are ether slowing down their growth or the economy is slowing down. But as long as they are doing more then the same time the last year then they are doing awesome.
You are easily impressed !
Unfortunately , not everyone is a gullible Tesla fanboy who has difficulty understanding business forcasts. :roll:
Of course Q1 this year was much better than last year..because last year was a total disaster, even allowing for it being still in start up mode.
Production during this Q1 ran at a rate of less than 5000 per week again..a figure they claimed they would exceed 12 months ago .
Tesla produced fewer M3s in Q1 this year (63,000), than they forecast to make in Q1 last year (72,000) !!
And despite frequent downward revisions of their production forecasts they produced 20+% LESS in Q1 this year than than market expectations , ..hence the drop in share price.
Again,

Year over year growth.

When you show me a 1/4 from a year that is lower then the same 1/4 of the previous year I will worry.
Tesla is in this for the long game there was over 10,000 cars stuck in transit at the end of this 1/4 which was partially due to unforeseen problems with international shipping.

It would take at least 1 of the 2 following things for me to quit being a "Tesla fan boy"
1 another car company to make a better product
2 for the other car company to sell more EVs!

Until then you can spin anything negative you want but Tesla is on the up and up.
Non of this shit is easy and nobody at Tesla said it would be.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 05 2019 2:15pm

By the way Tesla produced over 77k cars in Q1 thats 6425 cars a week and of that 62950 were model 3s which is 5245 per week.
https://electrek.co/2019/04/03/tesla-q1 ... bdrc4y7oxk
You are confusing deliveries with production its funny how your mistakes are always in a way that makes it look bad for Tesla.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 05 2019 4:40pm

No, no confusion here ..
i am refering only to M3 PRODUCTION...so forget excuses about Transit , stock build, etc etc..
And go check your maths...
90 days in Q1
62,950 M3s produced
Average weekly production...4896.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by pangtsr » Apr 05 2019 4:49pm

lester12483 wrote:This is a very good looking electric car. But for Tesla to sell a million of these they would need the price of gas to go above $4/gallon again. Then it would make more economic sense. I still say they need to team up with gas stations and create tens of thousands of battery swapping stations. But hopefully this car can be a huge hit.

Image
In most of Europe, price of gas is over $6 per gallon, so yeah i expect them to sell a shitload of Teslas.


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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 05 2019 5:17pm

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by TheBeastie » Apr 10 2019 8:33am

I think you guys missing the main point and problem with Tesla...
The DEMAND for their cars has completely GONE, so production does not matter.

Get Ready for a Pileup, Tesla
https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready- ... 1554851747

Tesla's Problem Is 'Waning Demand'
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... says-video

The first-quarter numbers were partly affected by the decreasing federal tax credits available for electric-car purchases, which pulled deliveries into the fourth quarter, Tesla said. But the decline also came despite the company cutting prices and offering incentives on some models.
https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi- ... story.html

And demand has disappeared everywhere, including Europe.
Look at the RED line for 2019..
Image

And even a lot of hardcore loyal customers are feeling ripped off and frustrated.
Tesla has been giving some of its most loyal customers the runaround
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/04/el ... rustrated/


And constantly shredding jobs, these jobs are needed to provide decent service, like this one yesterday
"Calgary, Tesla’s only service location in the province"
“I have volunteered for the unfortunate task to let you all know that as of today myself and all members of the Tesla Calgary Service department have been terminated effective immediately. We had no warning of this, and felt that we owed it to you all to let you know.”

https://electrek.co/2019/04/08/tesla-fi ... propriate/

this out yesterday, they are shredding sales people they need but they just don't have the money to keep going.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTR4F7x5H1s



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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 10 2019 10:05am

TheBeastie wrote:
Apr 10 2019 8:33am
I think you guys missing the main point and problem with Tesla...
The DEMAND for their cars has completely gone, so production does not matter.

This is simply not true and just a flat out lie. There is still people in NA waiting for their model 3s
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 10 2019 7:11pm

Yes, there are people all around the world still waiting for M3’s they ordered years ago !
So, why are Tesla not producing more than 5000 /week to supply that demand ?
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 10 2019 11:49pm

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 10 2019 7:11pm
Yes, there are people all around the world still waiting for M3’s they ordered years ago !
So, why are Tesla not producing more than 5000 /week to supply that demand ?
They seem they can do more towards 8000 but its not all ironed out yet. On top of that they likely have their reasons.
1 might be realizing they don't want to go though all it takes to get to something like 10,000 a week when maybe demand for NA will not be 10,000 a week sustained. With factories coming in places like china an Europe to support local model 3 production and other lower priced cars it would not make sense to expand production to far in North America.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Apr 11 2019 2:08am

Arlo1 wrote:
Apr 10 2019 10:05am
This is simply not true and just a flat out lie.
I get a kick out of the haters; they can't make up their mind about how to spin the Model 3 to make it look like a failure.

"No one WANTS model 3's! It's a TERRIBLE car! Tesla will FAIL!"
"There's a 3 year WAIT for model 3's because everyone wants them! Tesla is a TERRIBLE company and will FAIL!"

They'd be more credible if they could make up their mind.

Of course, these are also the people who said that Tesla would never be able to build the Model S, Model X or Model 3; that they would never be able to build enough batteries; that they wouldn't perform as well as even a run of the mill gas car; that no one would buy them and that Tesla would be out of business by 2012.
--bill von

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