Tesla Model 3

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Hillhater   100 GW

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 11 2019 9:39am

Arlo1 wrote:
Apr 10 2019 11:49pm
Hillhater wrote:
Apr 10 2019 7:11pm
So, why are Tesla not producing more than 5000 /week to supply that demand ?
.........they likely have their reasons.
1 might be realizing they don't want to go though all it takes to get to something like 10,000 a week when maybe demand for NA will not be 10,000 a week sustained. ..............
Isnt that basicly what Beastie said before you called him a liar ? :roll:
...and it doesnt sound like a typical over-ambitious, Musk, business plan ?
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by cricketo » Apr 11 2019 4:47pm

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 11 2019 9:39am
Arlo1 wrote:
Apr 10 2019 11:49pm
Hillhater wrote:
Apr 10 2019 7:11pm
So, why are Tesla not producing more than 5000 /week to supply that demand ?
.........they likely have their reasons.
1 might be realizing they don't want to go though all it takes to get to something like 10,000 a week when maybe demand for NA will not be 10,000 a week sustained. ..............
Isnt that basicly what Beastie said before you called him a liar ? :roll:
...and it doesnt sound like a typical over-ambitious, Musk, business plan ?
Holy cow, do you pay attention at all ? Opening statement was :
The DEMAND for their cars has completely GONE, so production does not matter.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by raylo32 » Apr 11 2019 5:15pm

The question is how will Tesla sustain demand once the initial M3 rush is over? Are they expecting M3 customers to trade up to MS? Will there be incremental M3 upgrades... or some new mid level M4 or such... that will get folks to trade? And how will they make a profit long term in the cutthroat auto business? I believe these are all legitimate questions that we don't know the answers to yet.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by cricketo » Apr 11 2019 7:01pm

raylo32 wrote:
Apr 11 2019 5:15pm
The question is how will Tesla sustain demand once the initial M3 rush is over?
Very easily. They will scale down Model 3 production and retool to produce Model Y, Tesla Semi and upcoming pickup to hit other markets.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 11 2019 7:36pm

raylo32 wrote:
Apr 11 2019 5:15pm
The question is how will Tesla sustain demand once the initial M3 rush is over? Are they expecting M3 customers to trade up to MS? Will there be incremental M3 upgrades...
Most new car buyers traditionally replace their cars every 3-4 years ..lease periods, warranty , image, etc.... so if the M3 is as good as claimed and customers are satisfied, there should be a healthy return customer demand.
Tesla have been quick with upgrades and revisions, so that should also encourage existing customers to replace/trade for new cars.
Add that to the anticipated forecast growth of EV’s , then there should be no problem with future demand....
The biggest threat is from other manufacturers crashing into the EV market with cheaper/better/ more attractive products.
One of the prime factors is price, and the key to price is reduction of manufacturing cost by maximising production rate and efficiency from capital assets.
Musk has stated they need 6000/week production of M3’s to break even, so they will have to find markets to support that capacity and more.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 11 2019 9:33pm

raylo32 wrote:
Apr 11 2019 5:15pm
The question is how will Tesla sustain demand once the initial M3 rush is over? Are they expecting M3 customers to trade up to MS? Will there be incremental M3 upgrades... or some new mid level M4 or such... that will get folks to trade? And how will they make a profit long term in the cutthroat auto business? I believe these are all legitimate questions that we don't know the answers to yet.
How many years has the Toyota Camry been for sale? Did the demand drop off all of the sudden for the Camry? Tesle has gotten to this point with Zero advertising. Let that sink in.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by TheBeastie » Apr 11 2019 10:06pm

Arlo1 wrote:
Apr 10 2019 11:49pm
With factories coming in places like china an Europe to support local model 3 production and other lower priced cars it would not make sense to expand production to far in North America.
The fact you think the China factory even had a chance of coming online shows you are seriously out of touch with Elon's real goals of death by SEC so he can just dump his shares... It's all about the money!
Elon Musk’s CEO pay-to-worker ratio is the highest ever recorded
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/new ... ation.html
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All new stories out today, some merely hours old, hopefully, some of you guys can get clued up.

This is perhaps the biggest news for Tesla of all time: The Nikkei bombshell that Panasonic is done with investing in the Nevada factory, and plans no investment in Tesla's Shanghai factory, either.

Tesla and Panasonic freeze spending on $4.5bn Gigafactory
Japanese company also suspends planned investment in Shanghai plant

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... igafactory
Unfortunately, the Q1 delivery numbers give the game away. $TLSA managed to exhaust, in six weeks, three years of European high-margin Model 3 demand, while US Model 3 demand cratered and Model S and X sales - worldwide - plunged deeply despite drastic price slashing.
https://twitter.com/Polixenes13/status/ ... 4664099841
Yes everyone knows the China factory is being built but this is all about creating illusions at the perfect time, it's all going to fail. Elon's plan is to pedal to the metal drive right off the cliff at full speed and take as many people as he can down with him, this is why Panasonic has bailed on him.
You need the Panasonic battery making equipment to make batteries, not just a roof, Panasonic has long had a strict contract with Tesla that Panasonic owns all the IP and manufacturing equipment for lithium cells.

A key Tesla supplier cuts growth plans, raising red flags over demand for the Model 3
https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/ ... story.html
"Panasonic is freezing plans to expand its role as Tesla’s electric car battery supplier, a move that raises new questions about demand for Tesla’s Model 3 — and the company’s future.

“The Panasonic news is a gut punch. This fans the flames on overall demand worries and profitability concerns going forward,” said the usually bullish Dan Ives, equity analyst at Wedbush Securities.
"

Even the ultra hardcore green energy Bloomberg dumped on Tesla
Tesla’s Growth Story Needs a New Charge
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... new-charge


Image

And even ultra pro-EV Tesla electrek.co is willing to put out news that the 35k Model 3 Tesla is NEVER coming!
"Tesla kills base $35,000 Model 3, increases prices, makes Autopilot standard
https://electrek.co/2019/04/11/telsa-35000-model-3/
Tesla announced today a series of changes to its vehicle lineup, including moving away from the long-promised base Model 3 at $35,000 and an increase in price across the lineup that comes with Autopilot becoming standard.
"
Image

Don't kill the messenger, it's all there on the most respectable/sueable media sources out there!
Image
Last edited by TheBeastie on Apr 11 2019 11:02pm, edited 12 times in total.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by jonescg » Apr 11 2019 10:33pm

TheBeastie wrote:
Apr 11 2019 10:06pm
The fact you think the China factory even had a chance of coming online shows you are seriously out of touch with Elon's real goals of death by SEC so he can just dump his shares... It's all about the money!
It's got more than a chance of coming online; it's being built. But I'm well aware of the parallel universe you live in, so fair enough.
2019.04-tesla-gigafactory-3-vincent.jpg

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 11 2019 10:41pm

TheBeastie wrote:
Apr 11 2019 10:06pm

The fact you think the China factory even had a chance of coming online shows you are seriously out of touch with Elon's real goals of death by SEC so he can just dump his shares... It's all about the money!
The fact you think it's not shows how out of touch you are. So I want to make a point of this time in history and what you just said. I am willing to place a wager on this as much at $150,000 which I would get by re-mortgeing my house to cover. My saying is the China factor is being built and will be online very soon. If they don't build it you win. If they do I win. Simple. Now I will warn you they have already started the assembly of the structure.

As for all the rest of your bs lies I will respond later.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by billvon » Apr 12 2019 1:26am

jonescg wrote:
Apr 11 2019 10:33pm
It's got more than a chance of coming online; it's being built.
Now don't go bringing reality into a perfectly good Internet rant.
--bill von

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by raylo32 » Apr 12 2019 8:06am

Sure, lets consider Toyota. They have just a "few" other profitable models for customers to move up to bigger/more luxe, or over to trucks, or eco like hybrids and fuel cell vehicles. They don't rely on Camry folks always upgrading to new Camrys every few years. Do you honestly believe that these guys can not build an EV that is as good as Tesla for less $?

https://www.toyota.com/all-vehicles/

Arlo1 wrote:
Apr 11 2019 9:33pm
raylo32 wrote:
Apr 11 2019 5:15pm
The question is how will Tesla sustain demand once the initial M3 rush is over? Are they expecting M3 customers to trade up to MS? Will there be incremental M3 upgrades... or some new mid level M4 or such... that will get folks to trade? And how will they make a profit long term in the cutthroat auto business? I believe these are all legitimate questions that we don't know the answers to yet.
How many years has the Toyota Camry been for sale? Did the demand drop off all of the sudden for the Camry? Tesle has gotten to this point with Zero advertising. Let that sink in.
Last edited by raylo32 on Apr 12 2019 8:37am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Hillhater » Apr 12 2019 8:35am

Arlo1 wrote:
Apr 11 2019 10:41pm
..... My saying is the China factor is being built and will be online very soon. If they don't build it you win. If they do I win. Simple. Now I will warn you they have already started the assembly of the structure.
I cannot quite decide if you have a crystal ball or just a besotted fan boy .
Forecasting Musks future decisions is a guessing game.
..how is that Giga factory 2 performing ???
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Punx0r » Apr 12 2019 9:10am

The reason Tesla is betting big on expansion is to try and maintain their lead and avoid getting crushed by the big encumbent car manufacturers when they finally decide to start leveraging their huge manufacturing facilities and supply chains to make EV's. Tesla currently has a huge USP of being unique, but it won't last forever. They need to establish cheaper/better batteries & drivetrains in the long term than their future competitors.

As Hillhater said, it's a real, existential threat to Tesla.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 12 2019 9:30am

Hillhater wrote:
Apr 12 2019 8:35am
Arlo1 wrote:
Apr 11 2019 10:41pm
..... My saying is the China factor is being built and will be online very soon. If they don't build it you win. If they do I win. Simple. Now I will warn you they have already started the assembly of the structure.
I cannot quite decide if you have a crystal ball or just a besotted fan boy .
Forecasting Musks future decisions is a guessing game.
..how is that Giga factory 2 performing ???
Have you ever noticed you can find a negative news source towards Tesla? I mean head lines could even read "Tesla announces cure for cancer stock drops 10%" Someone will spin anything they can in a bad way.
Seems pretty good to me. https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-gig ... ergy-ramp/
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 12 2019 9:32am

raylo32 wrote:
Apr 12 2019 8:06am
Sure, lets consider Toyota. They have just a "few" other profitable models for customers to move up to bigger/more luxe, or over to trucks, or eco like hybrids and fuel cell vehicles. They don't rely on Camry folks always upgrading to new Camrys every few years. Do you honestly believe that these guys can not build an EV that is as good as Tesla for less $?

https://www.toyota.com/all-vehicles/

Not at this point I do not believe they can.
Toyota has been dancing around this topic claiming BEVs are not the future for a while.
IN the mean time Tesla has been working on Vertical integration.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Ianhill » Apr 12 2019 1:27pm

Arlo1 wrote:
Apr 12 2019 9:32am
raylo32 wrote:
Apr 12 2019 8:06am
Sure, lets consider Toyota. They have just a "few" other profitable models for customers to move up to bigger/more luxe, or over to trucks, or eco like hybrids and fuel cell vehicles. They don't rely on Camry folks always upgrading to new Camrys every few years. Do you honestly believe that these guys can not build an EV that is as good as Tesla for less $?

https://www.toyota.com/all-vehicles/

Not at this point I do not believe they can.
Toyota has been dancing around this topic claiming BEVs are not the future for a while.
IN the mean time Tesla has been working on Vertical integration.

It's who got the most money can take the biggest loss hit till they dominate then implement ways of making you stick with them, Like Amazon has done some of the car makers are making a move and toyota and vw group are the ones to watch they have enough backed up to sell cars below their cost as a finger in the sky to tesla.

Let's be honest elon has struggled to keep cost down and production schedule where as in the early 90's America count make a car with out having a strike and union involved and honda came and sorted that out so maybe toyota and their work ethics with a healthy start to their day may have what it takes to keep forward and make a model that stand a out like the prius did for hybrid they sure do have the logistical position, work force and revenue to implement a world beater.

What is a world beater is it the best of everything? No its what's easy enough to use gets you there in comfort with reliability and most important it's cheap to own and service all of those things toyota is more than likely the brand that will get the job done but are waiting for the perfect time to pounce let there be a big enough demand first more than just enthusiasts when the public demand shifts to pure ev tesla won't have it all their own way or do they have any thing special that others can not emulate if not improve the motor technology is current gen but whats stoping toyota or alike jumping a generation in motpr tech to to an axial halbach array ?

I think there will be alot of one upmanship going on like we have always seen with the ice cars.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 12 2019 1:31pm

VW's pockets might not be deep enough.

Remember the diesel scandal has cost VW BILLIONS!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 35-billion
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by liveforphysics » Apr 12 2019 1:41pm

Maybe I just notice them more, but it seems like I'm seeing more Tesla's than Toyota's on my daily commute here in California. I'm sure there's hundreds of Toyota's registered for every 1 Tesla, but once someone has a Tesla that Toyota's going to be a driveway ornament rather than something someone wants to drive.

Model S is incredible and already slayed the sporty luxo-box market. Model 3 is incredible, and the self driving is so amazing it makes commutes and long trips an effortless relaxing scenic tour.

New Roadster is positioned to create performance irrelevance and obsolescence of every production supercar/hypercar at any price.

Toyota is positioned great for volume production of chassis and motor/inverter tech. However, the coming car market is pure EV, and you win that game at the battery level. Whomever is positioned to have lower cost of energy storage can afford to put more into the vehicle and it's performance for a given price-point of vehicle. Nobody else aside from Tesla has a Gigafactory, and Tesla is about to have 2 of them...

There's about to be a collapse of the ICE vehicle demand as more people gain awareness it's not a good idea to poison your life support system. In this collapse, most of the big players with a foot in each boat (ICE and EV) will fall, Tesla and maybe a couple others who were early to get volume EV production and supply chain worked out will survive to try to fill whatever niche parts of the market Tesla doesn't choose to dominate.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by larsb » Apr 12 2019 2:28pm

Tesla will eventually be losing the automotive battle. Sure they are hyped and disruptive today but the established car makers are on the hunt. Any of the big ones can make a better car package once the electric solutions have reached a more mature state.

Doesn't matter if you were first once someone else is better..
Ride on :D

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 12 2019 2:43pm

larsb wrote:
Apr 12 2019 2:28pm
Tesla will eventually be losing the automotive battle. Sure they are hyped and disruptive today but the established car makers are on the hunt. Any of the big ones can make a better car package once the electric solutions have reached a more mature state.

Doesn't matter if you were first once someone else is better..
This is complete fallacy.

The major OEMs are hurting now. And its just going to get worse. They need batteries look at GM or BMW do they make batteries?
How many years does it take to build a battery factory and learn how to mass produce batteries?

GM looses major money on the BOLT because they don't make any of the EV components!

Good frocking luck. All the Major OEMs who have a Stake in the ICE game are screwed if they try to go hard after the EV market they will kill their own ICE brand and loose 10s of Billions in the process.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by LeftieBiker » Apr 12 2019 3:27pm

Panasonic has pulled out of the Giga Factory expansion. The Chinese have their own giant battery factory.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by larsb » Apr 12 2019 3:35pm

All the Major OEMs who have a Stake in the ICE game are screwed if they try to go hard after the EV market they will kill their own ICE brand and loose 10s of Billions in the process.
Might be like this for the american brands.. Volvo in sweden are already in negotiations to handle their ICE developers future. They know their time is up.

Batteries can be bought, whoever seals the complete car package the best will win.

I don't think it'll be tesla. They had their moment, just like the cd player and VHS tape.
Ride on :D

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Ianhill » Apr 12 2019 4:08pm

I won't rule tesla out they could branch out just like toyota has with Lexus and turn the model s x y and 3 into a luxury chain and move a new brand at the cheaper end of the market utilizing components from the brother brand but with a raspi for the infotainment system and cut throat self driving system just basic pedestrian safety and braking etc if they pulled that one out the bag in a yaris size car then they will dominate bit these current wagons are to luxury to hit a wide enough audience.

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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 12 2019 4:39pm

larsb wrote:
Apr 12 2019 3:35pm
All the Major OEMs who have a Stake in the ICE game are screwed if they try to go hard after the EV market they will kill their own ICE brand and loose 10s of Billions in the process.
Might be like this for the american brands.. Volvo in sweden are already in negotiations to handle their ICE developers future. They know their time is up.

Batteries can be bought, whoever seals the complete car package the best will win.

I don't think it'll be tesla. They had their moment, just like the cd player and VHS tape.
When you mark up the most expensive part of an EV to make your company profitable. You better hope you are the one making the battery rather then another middle man.

Tesla is a energy company first car company second. This is just 1 of their many moats.
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Re: Tesla Model 3

Post by Arlo1 » Apr 12 2019 4:40pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Apr 12 2019 3:27pm
Panasonic has pulled out of the Giga Factory expansion. The Chinese have their own giant battery factory.
2 words

Maxwell Technologies

https://qz.com/1541864/tesla-bought-max ... apacitors/
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