Why has progress stalled?

I have to vent a bit here. In 2013 I built my first bbs02 bike. I've been in and out of the hobby over the last couple years, with a total of 5 ebikes and 2 ekayak prototypes.

How is it 2019 and there has been virtually no meaningful progress? In 2013 I imagined we would have some amazing mid-drives by now. Yet, BBS-XXs are still the go to builds. Is there something I am missing?

Gasoline near my house is $1.87/gallon...

What progress where you saying you were expecting? In a world where people are sort of buying a few electric bikes, there's no reason to expect huge steps forward. Arthur C. Clarke claimed to have believed that '2001: A Space Odyssey' was depicting the advances in space travel he expected by the year 2001. I think it's easy to see that was an unreasonable expectation.

There's no reason to be expecting magical advances in something that's not in demand. Look at all the squawking at the lack of a basic minimum income. These people keep acting shocked that it hasn't already happened when there's no reason to expect it, those of us to be so taxed are in no rush for more people on our backs. And nobody is looking to spend R&D money in a not so competitive market.

I am seeing some pretty sweet production bikes like haibike. Some can be had for circa 2k new from ebay. Kinda makes reconsider bbshd.. Saving money myself for some production enduro bike lol

You are seeing assemblies with torque sensors becoming more common for the home builder. I consider that to be a pretty big change.

Beyond that, big leaps in e-bikes are a product of battery development. There just haven't been many changes in batteries lately.

That being said, my interests in e-bikes waxes and wanes. Right now my interest is high because I am preparing to build a new bike.

Dauntless said:

...Arthur C. Clarke claimed to have believed...

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That's a pretty bold claim.

There is progress, everyone is making integrated motors now.

Bafang got the Ultra motor,
Cyclone got the Coaxial motor.

You need special frames for it.

This is just the result of ebikes going mainstream and previously DIY sellers are trying to appeal to manufacturers.

I have noticed that as of the last couple years, the prebuilt, proprietary bike has been the star of the show.
Most people don't want to turn a wrench or think too much. If they can avoid doing it, they will, and accept a sub-optimal experience at a high cost.

I have to say that factory ebikes have improved quite a lot. I think most people would be happy with them and not know any better.

This reminds me of the computer industry in the 90's and 2000's. Used to be customary to build your own computer from components. I built and serviced hundreds of custom computers as a very young computer technician. The only time i see a custom computer in the wild is in the storage closet these days. Typically it is an office full of Dell or HP computers now.

Another thing is that the bike industry seems to be suffering thanks to the effects of cheap gasoline. Many large bicycle retailers have closed. Interbike has been shuttered.

We have more oil than we know what to do with and less people are interested in cheaper and more environmentally sound transportation solutions. The electric car is selling like hotcakes.

As mentioned, the progress seems to be in OEM, partially to get the weight of bikes down with systems like Fauza which will add <10 pounds. This is reflected by Sea Otter which has 30+ e-bike booths, but only one (AFAICT) DIY "manufacturer" and they sell complete bikes too (HPC). The only other company with relatively powerful bikes is M1 Sportechnik and they would seem mild here.

LyonNightroad said:

I have to vent a bit here. In 2013 I built my first bbs02 bike. I've been in and out of the hobby over the last couple years, with a total of 5 ebikes and 2 ekayak prototypes.

How is it 2019 and there has been virtually no meaningful progress? In 2013 I imagined we would have some amazing mid-drives by now. Yet, BBS-XXs are still the go to builds. Is there something I am missing?

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1) Easy to make progress when there's nothing out there in the market. A lot harder to make progress when there is a lot out there.

2) Going from 80% efficiency to 90% is easy, compared to going from 90% to 95%.

3) Gas is cheap, so who cares about ebikes?

4) There has been pretty significant progress in the details. Look at ebikes.ca lineup - twice the availability of motors compared to 5 years ago. There are through-axle hubs now. Motors that accept cassettes and motors with Statorade and heatsinks. They have the Phaserunner now. Cylindrical-cell packs are now readily available.

billvon said:

2) Going from 80% efficiency to 90% is easy, compared to going from 90% to 95%.

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The sad thing is that all the techniques to create a 90-95% efficient motor for our bikes are already well known. The additional costs are quickly absorbed by the increased efficiency that reduces the need for so many materials. I have been trying to convince several hub motor manufacturers to implement some of these changes, offering to pay for R&D costs myself with the intent of using them as a supplier for a higher efficiency motor in the future.

I understand that China i undergoing economic turmoil because of tarrifs.. but passing up an opportunity to improve a product lineup ( providing a competitive advantage ) at zero cost to the manufacturer is pretty crazy.

Although on the contrary, we have some pretty cool dual reduction geared motors now, which haven't received enough love for how cool they are.