TPP, future trade war with China, how to get motors?

I'll be honest right off the bat, I don't know what's in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and I now realize I need to find out. The US (and it's largest trade partner, Canada) have a trade deficit with China, which has gotten worse over the last four presidents (two Republicans, and two Democrats). It's big money.

There is a separate thread for "Clinton vs Trump" do not post any of that here.

Here's some ramblings that may at first appear to be drunken ramblings, but stay with me for a minute.

Normally, when there are "wars and rumours of wars", people are concerned about rapid and unpredictable change. This leads investors and speculators to swap paper currency (backed by vapor, thin air, and trust in the federal reserve...which is neither a federal institution or a reserve of cash). In this environment, a portion of long term investments are often moved into gold and silver. Whether it is smart or foolish, it is a documented phenomenon. However, there was an unpredicted anomaly.

When Russia invaded ("liberated the proletariat worker?") Afghanistan, US president Carter embargoed trade with Russia ("That will teach them a lesson"). Russia had a bad farming year, and needed wheat. The US had so much wheat, it was suddenly sold at low prices, especially after a big buyer like Russia was taken off the acceptable buyer list.

The US sold wheat to Argentina, and without offloading it to a middle-man, shipped it direct to Russia, and Argentina added their cut (20%? 40%). The problem is that....Russia refuses to make the Ruble convertible on international markets, so how to pay for the wheat? They took their gold reserves, and paid Argentina with gold. A huge flood of gold coming onto the global market all at once dropped the price of gold, at a time when gold was expected to go up.

Australia is likely to be immune in a trade war, but China views the US and Canada as one trading block. If there is a trade war due to the huge trade deficit, Chinese motors and ebike kits may be unobtainable for some time.

North America has lagged behind Europe and Asia in adopting electric bikes, but that being said...their presence has grown the last few years.

Astro motors are made in the USA, but are considered an upscale product with a niche customer base (DaVinci Drives by Recumpense, and Tangent Motors by tangentdave).

Is the TPP good or bad for electric bikes in North America?

Will there be a trade war, with kit orders interrupted? just at the moment when ebikes are gaining a foothold?

Can motors be manufactured in North America? Is there a different motor configuration that would make local production more feasible? (hairpin stator-coils? Segmented cores? Lebowski coreless axial? "X"?)

The TPP is bad for everything. It puts big corporations in control of everything and gives nothing to the people.

RLD70 said:

The TPP is bad for everything. It puts big corporations in control of everything and gives nothing to the people.

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So whats new in that statement?
Nothing, because big corporations have been in control for a very long time.
Just like at Mr. Koch!

https://www.eff.org/issues/tpp

Issues with that agreement aside, trade with China is going nowhere. Of course we can make motors domestically but that will be the least of your problems in the event we no longer do business with China.

Perhaps my info is incomplete, but it leads to the rationality that not only would the country turn upside down without china's trading, theirs would too. I don't think the really major stuff in recorded history has happened by accident, as a rule of thumb. So it's not possible to rule out the worst potential of TPP, but it doesn't pay to get too wrapped up in the little strands of hype when there's a bigger picture.

And who gives a shit anyway if we can't buy motors and the million other things from there? Who even cares or can do anything about the absolute worst thing you can imagine (times ten) becoming reality??? Do your best while facing your end. . . . that's not different from normal life or different from any scenario I have heard or can imagine.

We would be so lucky if a "trade war" was the biggest concern w/ China. We are much closer to a shooting war w/ China than people realize.

TPP will be good for ebikes because Singapore and Malaysia are in it, and there are a lot of bicycle components that come out of there. Lots of my Shimano parts are stamped with a 'Made In Singapore' or 'Made In Malaysia'. Having Vietnam in the trade bloc will be really helpful, too, since Vietnam has lower-cost labor than China does, so low-cost/high-volume bicycle products from Vietnam could really help to drive down prices in the generic bicycle component space. Given that Singapore and Japan are known for creating higher value-added goods, having them in the trade area would be helpful with regard to bringing more ebike-specific or high-end parts to the market.

TPP is a fantastic trade pact for all involved, and will help to ensure that China cannot unilaterally dominate Asia-Pacific. This is *SO* important for so many reasons. Some of you who lived through the Cold War may have realized how peaceful things were due to the fact that neither the Soviet Union nor the United States could lay claim to global hegemony. After the fall of the Soviet Union, it didn't take too long to see the US make some major mistakes (Iraq, most notably) once it became a uniquely dominant military power. China is still decades behind the US in many respects, and as a result, we don't want to just wait around and see what would happen if China becomes the world's dominant military power, because China would surely make some major mistakes, too. Just take one look at China's belligerent behavior against the Philippines and Vietnam regarding islands in the South China Sea and you'll get a glimpse of what I'm talking about here.

Anyways, there's never going to be any trade war with China. China wants to grow slowly and peacefully, and alienating their biggest trading partners does not fit into that narrative. I do think that the US ought to play hardball with China on trade, however. It's ridiculous that they use the excuse of domestic law to defend their practice of denying market access to US technology firms like Google, Facebook, and Twitter. If I were the US President, I'd demand market access as well as immediate reparations for the loss of Chinese market share (somewhere in the hundreds of billions of dollars) lost by US tech firms, and I'd threaten to cut off trade with China unless my demands were met. I believe the Chinese would compromise so as to maintain trade and diplomatic ties with the US. Obama and his ilk don't seem to want to rock the boat, so they haven't done anything like this. Who knows, maybe Obama's State Department made the right call. There's no way to be certain.

motomech said:

We are much closer to a shooting war w/ China than people realize.

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If you mean an indeterminate number of decades away, sure. With the status quo as it is China isn't doing SHIT. Not only are we economically codependent but our military absolutely crushes theirs in every way. Nobody is getting into a shooting war because there's nothing to gain and everything to lose. China's leaders are just as smart as ours and they're well aware of this.

Edit : my witting yesterday about more tariff's was backward, the TPP is about eliminating tariff's for 12 trading countries.
I just read a little summary of the TPP, and China is not listed as one of the 12 countries .
And This raises more questions that it answers,
One guess is that Vietnam will be making more goods , like bikes, e-motors, etc . in the Future for us.
But one big question , One real big question is , since Mexico is ... on the list, it looks like the writers / drafters of the TPP want Mexico to be the Next China in regards to items being made there cheaper than the U.S.
( Remember NAFTA anyone ? and how bad it really is for the working person ).
If that were to happen ... TPP , then even more U.S. jobs would be lost to Mexico,
which equates into more Homelessness, more Crime, more Domestic Abuse, all this and more is well documented with jobs lost in the Mid -West and East of years past,
which still
have costly consequences both to peoples income/lack there of , crime, homelessness and social unrest for the U.S. years later ( Now ).

until we really can get a protectionist or at least a Commander in Chief, that will put in some protectionist measures in place, we here in the U.S. will continue to be screwed !

Every indication is that the TPP is .. Very Bad for every day working People !
Another example of Laws , that are only good for Wall Street, and Bad for every one on Main Street .

That means you and me !


On the Subject of war with China, China does not want a military war with us, they have spent allot of effort to take us over/conquer us , economically, without shooting a single shot ! and at present, note the word present, it is working for them. The Big Boys that really run things have other plans , I will not go into that because that is a few years away from happening. China has been at economic war with us for a long time, there will be changes.

On the note of Motors,
I will make an example of the little motor that I presently like , somewhat like, only because there is no competition for it at the present time.
and that is the Little Q100c CST. Presently at BMS Battery it is $ 94 , But, the price of Shipping has gone up to apx $ 60 ! , so that is $ 154 for just a little motor.

With shipping costs going up, and the possibility of some import tax , that would open the chance for someone here in the U.S. and/or Canada to make a hub motor for just under $ 200 Shipped , to your door , hub motor that has improvements that we want anyway.
Take the/ look at a motor Like the Q100c CST, or the Befang 010 ,
Now make the following improvments.
1 ) Some weight shaved off
2 ) Designed and made in such a way that it needs less Dishing of the Wheel/Rim
3 ) With a Cassette Freehub body that will accept 10 and 11 speed cogsets, so that we can use the newer bikes like for the last 6 + years now bikes , for our conversions.
4) With 32, and even 28 hole Flange hubs , we can use the better/stronger rims , ... and with 28 hole flange hubs, we can start to finally lace up a small / light weight motors to Carbon Rims,
Note, Carbon rims and low spoke count only for the small motors like the Q100c /Befang G010. ( keep the higher count spoke holes for the heaver and higher torque motors like the Mac at 9.5 pounds , and heaver motors. )
5) A 130mm drop out , rim brake version would also be good for many people.

I would be very happy to buy such a motor with the 5 improvements I list above, from Grin Technologies, or Some Mfg. here in the States .

So you see we need to start making better products anyway , right here in the U.S. / Canada !

Thanks for all the responses, there's a lot to think about. I think if there are strenuous negotiations, eventually China will agree to some compromise, but...They will then violate parts of the agreement at every chance that they think that they can get away with...

I knew that Taiwan is a major bicycle parts player, but I hadn't heard about Malaysia and Singapore. I'll have to look at them a little closer.

"If you like your Chinese E motor, you can keep your Chinese Emotor."

We really need another 5,500 page deal that nobody can understand.
Everyone here is talking like it's a done deal.
And it is not, not by a long shot.

I second this question .
And I would add , Made in the U.S. and Canada.

I would love to see a dedicated thread on, each , of these motors you list below .

spinningmagnets said:

Can motors be manufactured in North America? Is there a different motor configuration that would make local production more feasible? (hairpin stator-coils? Segmented cores? Lebowski coreless axial? "X"?)

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I am just now seeing what the TPP really is and how bad it is to the working and everyday person .
Read below ,

ScooterMan101 said:

Edit :
I just read a little summary of the TPP, and China is not listed as one of the 12 countries .
And This raises more questions that it answers,
One guess is that Vietnam will be making more goods , like bikes, e-motors, etc . in the Future for us.
But one big question , One real big question is , since Mexico is ... on the list, it looks like the writers / drafters of the TPP want Mexico to be the Next China in regards to items being made there cheaper than the U.S.
( Remember NAFTA anyone ? and how bad it really is for the working person ).
If that were to happen ... TPP, then even more U.S. jobs would be lost to Mexico,
which equates into more Homelessness, more Crime, more Domestic Abuse, all this and more is well documented with jobs lost in the Mid -West and East of years past,
which still
have costly consequences both to peoples income/lack there of , crime, homelessness and social unrest for the U.S. years later ( Now ).

until we really can get a protectionist or at least a Commander in Chief, that will put in some protectionist measures in place, we here in the U.S. will continue to be screwed !

Every indication is that the TPP is .. Very Bad for every day working People !
Another example of Laws , that are only good for Wall Street, and Bad for every one on Main Street .
That means You and Me !

Click to expand...

motomech said:

We really need another 5,500 page deal that nobody can understand.
Everyone here is talking like it's a done deal.
And it is not, not by a long shot.

Click to expand...

As The Donald and Socialist Burnie agreed during the campaign, the U.S. gets the worst of any trade deal. There's an inevitability to that or the other side wouldn't sign. TPP is specifically designed without China because it's to aid others in relation to China. China is already killing us, what do they need with TPP?

https://theconversation.com/japans-sacred-rice-farmers-brace-for-pacific-trade-deals-death-sentence-45280

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-surveys-japan-2015_eco_surveys-jpn-2015-en;jsessionid=4526fti0r14sj.x-oecd-live-02

Build motors in the U.S.? With labor who is willing to gain the RIGHT education to run the equipment? To maintain a production pace to make it profitable? No, you won't want to pay what you'll have to pay when the factory goes union. They'd rather stay off work and collect welfare.

flat tire said:

motomech said:

We are much closer to a shooting war w/ China than people realize.

Click to expand...

If you mean an indeterminate number of decades away, sure. With the status quo as it is China isn't doing SHIT. Not only are we economically codependent but our military absolutely crushes theirs in every way. Nobody is getting into a shooting war because there's nothing to gain and everything to lose. China's leaders are just as smart as ours and they're well aware of this.

Click to expand...

Um, I take it that's your acknowledgement that YOU don't realize. . . ? China has believed for some time that they could already defeat the U.S. They consider themselves to be replacing the U.S., not necessarily peacefully. If the shooting does start in the South China sea, will there be a way to stop it?

What you have to understand about the Chinese is they believe luck is God given. This would make a good moment to search 'Mandate from Heaven.'

The Mandate of Heaven (Chinese: 天命; pinyin: tiānmìng; literally: "heaven decree") is an ancient Chinese belief/theory and philosophical idea that tiān (heaven) granted emperors the right to rule based on their ability to govern well, appropriately and fairly.

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Much to be learned on that concept alone. You find lots of great passages: "Now your Majesty is entering on the inheritance of his virtue; -- all depends on how you commence your reign. To set up love, it is For you to love your relations; to set up respect, it is for you to respect your elders. Now your Majesty is entering on the inheritance of his virtue; -- all depends on how you commence your reign. To set up love, it is For you to love your relations; to set up respect, it is for you to respect your elders."

What's important to understand is that while we see the Chinese stealing intellectual properties, etc., as proof of their weakness, THEY see it as proof of their strength against us, as we don't seem to be able to stop them. First we compare them to the similar belief of the Japanese in WWII, believing they could operate a ramshackle fleet of ships against the larger U.S. fleet, that they could somehow prevail because of their basic superiority for being Japanese. Before the war started they were already talking of already replacing the U.S. as the power in the Pacific. And yet the Japanese still understood such things as the 'Kamikaze winds' which turned back Mongol invasions to be luck.

You can find a great number of lucky moments that the Chinese say prove the power of their leadership. Rebel forces wiped out by floods, invasion fleets moored close and tied together where someone starts a fire on one deck that spreads to other ships. If this happens to your enemy, this is proof of how good YOU are.

It's one thing to compare to the past as when the British thought the U.S. would let them take crewmen from American ships, that burning the White House in the war of 1812 would bring the U.S. to its' knees, to the Germans thinking that simply sinking ALL U.S. ships that got near Britain during WWI would make the U.S. knuckle under, that the Japanese thought the U.S. wouldn't stomach WWII. What is different this time is we really HAVE become dependent on things being made in China rather than here. Look at the upset over the Korean shipping company going bankrupt and the City of LA saying they'll unload the freight unpaid. Good ole' Garcetti, backing down and whining about we just want stuff while he talks tough about throwing people in LA out of work for the sake of HIS policy.

You know how people love to say 'This time is different. . . .' What IS different this time is the level of laziness in America, compared to the past. . . .

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/02/asia/south-china-sea-supreme-court/index.html

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/12/opinions/south-china-sea-decision-burke-white/index.html

Dauntless,
I am much more optimistic in regards to making the larger parts like hub motors, and improved mid-drive motors

It is possible to make motors here in the U.S. and yes even with the improvements I mention , for a good/low/reasonable price.

First if you are in California like I am, you might think the way you do, However , there are States like Arizona, that are right to work states,
and other States that have plenty of people , who actually do want to work,
that have a lower cost of living, and much lower cost of conducting business , and so the workers need less in pay .
Many workers here in the States do Not want to join a union.

Also , One company, could have such a motor made , from parts made in different places/from different vendors . Wherever the cost is best/most competitive for each part.

There are very few parts to an electric hub motor, or any electric motor for that fact. Add to that that shipping to anywhere in the U.S. would be under $ 15, more like $ 12 really.

Dauntless said:

Build motors in the U.S.? With labor who is willing to gain the RIGHT education to run the equipment? To maintain a production pace to make it profitable? No, you won't want to pay what you'll have to pay when the factory goes union. They'd rather stay off work and collect welfare.

quote]

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China isn't a part of the TPP. The reason the TPP exists is mostly because of the south-east asian nations wanted to get together and have an agreement that China wouldn't bully them on.

Suffice it to say, the TPP isn't an issue when it comes to China, and there is no future trade war with China because of it.

A bigger issue is that the cost of shipping might go up because one of the biggest shipping companies in China, Hanjin, has filed for bankruptcy.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/cargo-and-sailors-stranded-at-sea-as-hanjin-bankruptcy-causes-global-shipping-chaos

China is the 2nd biggest economy in the world, and their economy is mostly based on trade with the western world. We just can't avoid dealing with them, and they can't avoid dealing with us. We need each other, and that is stronger that any political will.

ScooterMan101 said:

Dauntless,
I am much more optimistic in regards to making the larger parts like hub motors, and improved mid-drive motors

Click to expand...

Optimism is nice, BUT, you have to remember you then run into people like Mayor Eric Garcetti, who went on the radio touting an outrageous hike in the minimum wage in LA as people from the community kept calling him and saying no, including one guy from an organization that rehabilitates the homeless and gets them into jobs, who said this $15/hr. minimum wage Garcetti was pushing through the city council would basically end his organization. Garcetti just blew them off. Of course, yes, that is in the People's Republic of California.

ScooterMan101 said:

First if you are in California like I am, you might think the way you do, However , there are States like Arizona, that are right to work states, and other States that have plenty of people , who actually do want to work,
that have a lower cost of living, and much lower cost of conducting business , and so the workers need less in pay .
Many workers here in the States do Not want to join a union.

Click to expand...

Union membership is down to about 10% of the population, many of them being more than a third of the government employees. But that's only because the companies that employed oh so many union members were driven out of business and/or out of the country by the demands. Over 20% were union members in the 80's, even more before that, some of the estimate approach 30%. There's always been people who don't want to join the union, but if you want to work at xxx, you have to join. Luckily there aren't as many such places anymore. When the unions gain strength wages rise then fall, as the unions whine and refuse to take responsibility. As Dr. Peter D. Peter would say, an example of rising to their own level of incompetence, getting to where they're not worth what they're getting paid.

So a California chain of furniture stores is throwing in the towel on their California factory and moving to Wisconsin. (Who is Governor there?) Say what you want about right to work states, etc., there are people who fight that every step of the way. Imagine people opposing a right to work, but we have that in the United States. All the upset right now because the factory would DARE leave California. Wisconsin is already under attack for being proemployment. Arizona had been the most embattled state, but I'd say North Carolina has replaced them. I recently quoted Mencken on this board for ". . . .The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy. " But it extends beyond Puritanism. There's also that panic about someone might have a decent job and be making a living, etc.

http://www.publishersweekly.com/978-1-4000-4221-0

I just remember 'The Great Upheaval' of 1877. People didn't want parttime jobs with the railroads, they wanted fulltime. But the economy was bad, there would only be fulltime work if a bunch of people were laid off. So the Social Democrats of their time started killing railroad passengers, burning buildings, blowing up railroad cars. This to show how much they wanted to work more hours. Saying that they want to work doesn't mean they're going to cooperate with what the job has to be. I remember the early scene from 'Gung Ho,' after all the whining about how much they need the factory to come to them and the town was going to die if it didn't, once it's there they're immediatrely grousing that it doesn't pay as much as they were making. So much for wanting to work. Read Robert Rubin's book, as Secretary of the Treasury he arranges a loan for South Korea, who were unable to get one and were sooooooo desperate. Once the documents are in front of them, the South Korean president starts saying he's not going to pay the interest. Gotta love Rubin's response. He said he really didn't care of the Koreans actually took the opportunity, he'd done his job just by setting it up and they'd have have to sink or swim. And he left the room. Of course he signed the papers.

"I reick you. You make me raugh." (Or at least that's how the original sounded, before they bowed to pressure to change it.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_gLOUbQZgk

So here's a machine making a housing for a motor. Notice anything about the operator? To compete with that factory, you have to produce far more of those housings with that machine. Of course that factory can figure out how you're doing that and start producing more to undersell you with their cheaper labor.

[youtube]LkJ2ByG1Goo[/youtube]

Dauntless said:

Um, I take it that's your acknowledgement that YOU don't realize. . . ? China has believed for some time that they could already defeat the U.S. They consider themselves to be replacing the U.S., not necessarily peacefully. If the shooting does start in the South China sea, will there be a way to stop it?

What you have to understand about the Chinese is they believe luck is God given. This would make a good moment to search 'Mandate from Heaven.'

Click to expand...

Well, the South China sea expansion is a good move for China. When push comes to shove, they won't start a war with us over it...but neither will we, so for now they will get the territory.

The Chinese believe they will overtake us IN THE FUTURE and I don't disagree. Their leaders are (mostly) rational human beings who have a vested interest in staying alive and not jeopardizing their power and wealth. For right now, we have them completely outgunned in terms of conventional power. They just barely started getting into aircraft carriers, their aerospace development is still a couple decades behind ours, their navy is the dominant power in the region but ours is the dominant power over the ENTIRE GLOBE. We also have significantly better and more numerous missiles, bombs, satellites, and better electronic intelligence overall. In a conventional war, the USA has the logistical support and allied territory available to move men and materiel to the region. How the hell is China going to move SHIT to our homeland? Get a bunch of container ships and set sail for San Francisco?

As far as a non conventional war goes, we're WAY ahead of the Chinese in terms of nuclear technology and delivery vehicles. We also have a shitload more nukes and delivery vehicles than they do. But none of that matters since both sides have a credible capacity to perform great nuclear destruction on the other, so a Nuke war won't happen. As far as a cyber war goes, that's been happening for more than 30 years and it won't get too nasty unless a real conflict breaks out.

When it comes to hand labor, the part we'd have a hard time in the USA getting quality workers to produce at a low wage is the hand-winding of the coils on the stator. (just my opinion, I could be wrong). Using powdered-metal processes with minimal machining (with the machining being done by CNC, same cut over and over).

Build motors in the U.S.? With labor who is willing to gain the RIGHT education to run the equipment?

Click to expand...

These days, it can be on-the-job training (OTJ). The product design can be tweaked to emphasize more of the machine-run processes, and to simplify the remaining hand-work.

The Lebowski motor is coreless, so the coils can be easily machine-wound. A hairpin configuration dramatically simplifies motor construction. Segmented cores still use laminated metal sheets stacked to make the core, but if you segment them, they can be machine-wound, and then assemble the wound segments into a stator, with the laminations laser-cut locally.

I don't know which method would be "best", or at least the "most doable". One design might be cheaper per output watt, another might be more efficient or more powerful per output watt. A third might be "average" in every respect, except that it has the least amount of hand-labor involved, which...if USA-made, could be a deciding factor in order to make the motor affordable enough that customers would actually buy it.

Regardless of the method, I can order the parts, and then assemble plus test ten of them on a Saturday. However, I don't want to start down that road unless the design is expandable in a way that they can be affordably made on a larger scale by employees.

flat tire said:

Well, the South China sea expansion is a good move for China. When push comes to shove, they won't start a war with us over it...but neither will we, so for now they will get the territory.

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Yeah, invading kuwait was a good move for Iran. . . .

Meanwhile, China has said and is continuing to say they WILL go to war to take over the south China sea.

flat tire said:

The Chinese believe they will overtake us IN THE FUTURE and I don't disagree. Their leaders are (mostly) rational human beings who. . . .

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Ordered that the Dalai Lama was not allowed to go to heaven or even die without their permission. . . .

They are supposed to be completing the overtaking right now.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/05/politics/philippines-president-rodrigo-duterte-barack-obama/index.html

flat tire said:

As far as a non conventional war goes, we're WAY ahead of the Chinese in terms of nuclear technology and delivery vehicles. We also have a shitload more nukes and delivery vehicles than they do. But none of that matters since both sides have a credible capacity to perform great nuclear destruction on the other, so a Nuke war won't happen. As far as a cyber war goes, that's been happening for more than 30 years and it won't get too nasty unless a real conflict breaks out.

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But we're right back to them saying they don't have to be reasonable. Ah, the Boxer Rebellion. Empress Cixi thought she could use the so called Boxers to her advantage, she issued an order that the foreigners be killed. Almost comic when the Boxers acted out on their claims that they were bulletproof thanks to their fist dance, charging at the rifle wielding foreign troops. . . .

spinningmagnets said:

Build motors in the U.S.? With labor who is willing to gain the RIGHT education to run the equipment?

Click to expand...

These days, it can be on-the-job training (OTJ).

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These days so many expect to be paid to even start learning. It'll have to be machine wound, I can just hear the organizing speech for "Winders Local" when they want $60/hr.

I have had three union jobs that have paid between $18-$25/hr. If designed properly, and assembling eight units in an 8-hour workday, so about $22-ish dollars of labor per motor.

The guy that cuts the wire and winds them into coils could easily make enough for ten assemblers in one day (rough estimate, 80 motors/day?). Axles, cases, and laminations are made by outside shops. If a coreless design, no lams needed.

You can only have specialized workers if you are big with a lot of production. If I only have enough work for three guys to be busy, Each would have to learn how to do every operation and fill in throughout the day at whatever was needed that hour.

Dauntless said:

Yeah, invading kuwait was a good move for Iran. . . .

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I'm sure many of Iraq's generals knew it was a gamble. They lost. Anyway, it wasn't hard for us to go to war over Kuwait because there was plenty of political and popular will. There is little to NONE of that for a war with China. There also wasn't an existential concern if the war went bad. Any kind of war between 2 nuclear powers runs a big risk of going nuclear. Minus the Kargil war which had extenuating circumstances, we've avoided those kind of things since the bomb came around. Both the Chinese and American leadership are quite keen to avoid a nuclear conflict. We have too much to lose and our lives are too comfortable.

Dauntless said:

Meanwhile, China has said and is continuing to say they WILL go to war to take over the south China sea.

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Hmm, China has said and is continuing to say that they WILL go to war over Taiwain. Thanks to 1% stupid political language and 99% US support Taiwan remains an independent, self governed country. Similarly, nobody in either China or Washington wants a war over the SCS and both sides are willing to bend over backwards to defuse tensions. Our relationship is too complex and important, and a war would be too costly. Nobody is going to stop China from taking and creating territory in the SCS, but unless China becomes vastly more powerful than it is now the waters will be de facto (50% de jure) international space for purposes of navigation, and maybe some fishing.

Dauntless said:

But we're right back to them saying they don't have to be reasonable. Ah, the Boxer Rebellion. Empress Cixi thought she could use the so called Boxers to her advantage, she issued an order that the foreigners be killed. Almost comic when the Boxers acted out on their claims that they were bulletproof thanks to their fist dance, charging at the rifle wielding foreign troops. . . .

Click to expand...

I doubt you'll find soldiers in any modern army, save those run by drug crazed african warlords, who believe that stuff. Besides that, their leadership are as much about pushing science and empirical research as any on the glove. China is the second biggest military spender on earth, and they're not putting that money into training witch doctors.

flat tire said:

. . . . their leadership are as much about pushing science and empirical research as any on the glove. China is the second biggest military spender on earth, and they're not putting that money into training witch doctors.

Click to expand...

You would find the U.S. government doesn't agree with you on that.

Sometimes, the things some people post, I feel like they think they could reveal they really ARE these major policy wonks and that they think their words are concrete. Not Mr. Magnets, he's always qualifying he's talking from his experience and what becomes public knowledge, etc. I'm more what the forecasters call the 'Underemployed news junkie,' who tends to beat them because he's more well read than they are. (Great comment in a book where the Good Judgment Institute says the forecasters don't want to compete against people like me.) Who knows, maybe Robert Rubin really does read this board and saw where I mentioned him scoffing at South Korea.

But there's always people who leave me thinking "Huh?" Where do people even get some of this? I work in a field full of people trying to fake it, who try to argue the most ridiculous things about TV production because they think they can feint credibility. Until it blows up in their face. It sure seemed reasonable when they imagined it. Like the woman in 'This Property is Condemned' pretending there's this hotel with the crocodiles and ducks in a pond in the lobby. Robert Redford asks her "How do you suppose they keep those crocodiles from eating all those ducks?"

Yeah, the Japanese would never REALLY go try to bomb Pearl Harbor. That's why the Navy went ahead and ran a whole fleet problem round that before it happened. And George H.W. Bush laughing at Iraq when they said they'd invade Kuwait. Once you can talk yourself out of believing it, it could NEVER happen.

How anyone can say Obama was /is a good President after trying to cram TPP down our throats really boggles my mind. TPP is pure evil. Obama should be ashamed of himself.

Hillary wins and it will surely be passed. She's bought and paid for big time! Trump won't sign it, and has been against TPP from the start.