Impending Big big oil and big auto implosion plausible theory (video)

MitchJi

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[Youtube]aUC6lsLr04I[/Youtube]

It sounds possible to me. Imo sure that hhater disagree but if anyone else wants to discuss this I’d like to hear what you have to say.
 
Here’s the link to the article referred to in the video:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond
 
My bet is that big oil diversifies into generating electricity with oil.

A nationwide EV fleet will need a shit-ton of electric power.
Gasoline powered turbines can be up to 61% efficient, so it is actually a realistic choice to burn gasoline in a very expensive plant located far away so that the pollution of driving is far from where people live.

Most gasoline powered cars are 25-33% efficient, so even with transmission losses and efficiency losses, a 15% loss of 61% still results in a 51% efficient conversion of gasoline to wheel power.

With an oil glut and EVs all over the place, gasoline will become dirt cheap, so this is the natural last resort for oil companies..
 
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neptronix said:
My bet is that big oil diversifies into generating electricity with oil.

A nationwide EV fleet will need a shit-ton of electric power.

With an oil glut and EVs all over the place, gasoline will become dirt cheap, so this is the natural last resort for oil companies..
Except that wind and solar power generation are already cheaper than coal

The reason only potential issue is storage. If nothing else VtoG could handle a lot of that.
 
MitchJi said:
Except that wind and solar power generation are already cheaper than coal
The reason only potential issue is storage. If nothing else VtoG could handle a lot of that.
:roll: You may have difficulty finding ANY combination of storage technology that would allow wind /solar generation to be cost competitive with Gas or coal, for a Reliable , CONTINUOUS, power supply ?
 
Hillhater said:
You may have difficulty finding ANY combination of storage technology that would allow wind /solar generation to be cost competitive with Gas or coal, for a Reliable , CONTINUOUS, power supply ?
Got one in my garage.
 
If it was really cheaper, no strings attached, we wouldn't bother burning fossil fuels. Shell and Texaco would have already erected huge wind/solar farms.

Yup, the cost of the storage is the issue..
You don't wanna know what solar/wind costs with a multi megawatt-hour battery. Ya really don't.. :p
 
For every giant wind-generator that is built, a certain amount of gas-turbine capacity is added as a back up to ensure a steady stream of power, because the wind fluctuates too much.

The gas turbines are jet engines that burn natural gas / methane to spin a generator. The US has so much methane, the oil wells usually just simply burn it off (flaring) to get to the liquid oil below it.
 
billvon said:
Hillhater said:
You may have difficulty finding ANY combination of storage technology that would allow wind /solar generation to be cost competitive with Gas or coal, for a Reliable , CONTINUOUS, power supply ?
Got one in my garage.
Do you want to walk us through the full cost details involved in that system..?
Because the EIA, Lazard, etc etc all agree that rooftop solar (even without storage), is one of the most expensive forms of power supply.
Once you add enough storage for a continuous supply, the costs are much higher.
 
The grid storage projects Im involved with all have rapid ROIs of a few years.

It's only going to be a shorter ROIs as cell costs and inverter costs keep dropping.

Solar farms will never be worse performance or higher cost than they are today, and already slaughter the $/kWh of new coal/natural gas plants.

The burning things mindset will end. The only question is if it ends due to our species extinction, or evolution.
 
ROI in a few years is a pretty outstanding and hard to foresee/believe.

What sort of battery is used?
My guess is that it's not a costco-sized Tesla powerwall.
 
Eliminating the peaker plants by leveling grid demand is how you get fastest ROI for grid right now.

Battery and inverter that replaces peaker plants actually costs less than just the emissions retrofit to existing coal peakers. Meaning that you pay less upfront costs and then don't have to have a daily parade of train cars of coal you're buying afterwards.

Depending on location demands and infrastructure, you can shuffle your energy to and from the grid >4x a day. That $0.25/Wh for energy storage used 4x daily for a year is 1.4kWh of energy output delivery.

The cost in Hawaii is $0.30/kWh, so ROI may come in under a year there, in most US locations with $0.09-$0.15/Wh it takes a few years.

Hillhater said:
liveforphysics said:
The grid storage projects Im involved with all have rapid ROIs of a few years.
What is the primary source of revenue for that ROI ?
 
Coal peaker plants ???
That is pretty rare, ...and being coal it cannot really be a peaker, as it has to operate continuously with spare capacity to supply the peaks .
I do not see where a battery would help in that situation. ?
The vast majority of grids use Gas peaker plants.
Also, most grid systems with significant peaks tend to need an extra 1-5 GW to meet that peak demand and that can last for 2-4 hours. So a typical system would need a capacity of 2-10 GWh of capacity.
That is way beyond any current battery system assembled to date (130MW is the worlds largest !)
And it also require that amount of dedicated ( surplus) generation capacity to charge the said battery
So exactly what peak demand are you replacing, and what size battery ?
PS.... The "worlds biggest battery" , currently the Tesla 130 MWh installation in S Australia, has a minimal impact on even the comparatively small 0.5-1.0 GW peaks seen there as it can only discharge at 30MW rate !
It does make money however, by discharging during the high PRICE peaks and charging at minimum cost periods.
Effectively skimming the price differentials
It is explained as supplying FCAS services to stabilise the grid ( something that they managed without before ?)
But really it is just "gameing the power market" (legall, but not ethical) at the expense of all consumers.
If that is the kind of peak you are refering to
 
It's not even gaming, any urgent demand call you win at your cherry-picking. Leveraging the high peak demand is how the ROI on inefficient peakers workout, otherwise they would never start them. The beauty is, the batteries for replacing the peakers only need to last 30min to an hour to be incredible beneficial to all life in the current burning things system.

This is great, because it means only base-grid providers (more efficient and generally scrubbed exhaust) are still burning things until adequate solar and battery replaces all of it.

If you have an EV car in your garage, you could likely make ROI on the bi-directional grid-tie inverter in a month depending on the grid in your area. With a Tesla sized pack or a garage with a few EV's and inverters, it likely would have a fast ROI to upgrade the service from the utility pole to your home to a 400amp drop or bigger. You also would need to understand how to manage that pack to only exercise the most robust SOC% ranges of the pack and only at the right temperatures, or your might make poor choices with wearing out a Tesla pack over making a few hundred bucks a month. You also need to have software skills to predict the lows for when to buy, and when its beneficial to sell when it's a peak demand, it's because it's expensive for the burning things system to change outputs.

More importantly than anything financial, close your thumb to your forefinger and see the air in the empty space is about ~1 square inches across. All the way up into outer space, it's only 14.7lbs of air, total in the spaceships shared life-support system above that open space in your hand. No second atmosphere standing by if we feed this one into turbines. Sun still shines everyday, clouds attenuate it, sometimes windy on cloudy days, enough solar and enough batteries means less self-extinction. Whatever it takes to get there is the cost of being a species inhabiting the spaceship.

Reasons why supplying peaks is so useful quoted below:
“At times this may not be an option because the down time between shutdown and start-up of a resource may be too long, which would prevent the resource from being restarted in time for system peak,” NERC concluded.

While they are warming up, conventional plants waste huge amounts of fuel without producing useful output.

And repeatedly heating up and cooling down the boilers, economisers, pipework, turbines and other components shortens their life-span and requires more expensive maintenance.
 
*have real skills or find someone how does if you're going to tap your EV battery and tap your home's grid connection and setup a bi-directional inverter. Both sides of that project are high death-to-noob% ratios.
 
Hillhater said:
Ahh ! OK, so you are looking at using domestic installed battery systems to reduce grid peak loads, as opposed to a public utility installing one large battery to eliminate peaker plants ?

Domestic scale storage works for domestic power requirements, and combines synergistically with home rooftop solar. Im not personally involved at that scale yet. So far my client's smallest scale projects are tall office building sized, and largest are for the utilities themselves (currently 3 locations).
 
Whenever the discussion at work turns to EVs, a frequently expressed concern is that an EV can't do everything, but this is usually mentioned by someone who's family has two cars.

My wife works close to home, so she is a perfect candidate for an EV. And...when large EV batteries are only cycled in the fat middle of their range (3.3V to 4.0V), these packs are still running well after nearly 10 years of use.

What I most want is a plug and play black box in my garage that allows the EV to be used as a power back-up during a power outage.

If a grid-tie black box (for grid peak-trimming) had tax incentives and a short ROI, that might "prime the pump" to make EVs much more popular.

The benefits to the country and the planet are obvious, but persuading individuals that there is a direct benefit to their family might be a very productive addition to the campaign
 
spinningmagnets said:
What I most want is a plug and play black box in my garage that allows the EV to be used as a power back-up during a power outage.
That's a piece of cake. Install some Anderson connectors (SB175's work well) on the 12V battery and get a good 1000 watt inverter. Most DC/DC converters in EV's will go to at least 100 amps (1200 watts.) 1000 watts should be enough to run a fridge, fan, lights etc.

Prius - 120 amps with 100 amp fuse
Leaf - 135 amps
Volt - 165 amps
 
If a grid-tie black box (for grid peak-trimming) had tax incentives and a short ROI, that might "prime the pump" to make EVs much more popular.
Thats a different ball game to simple emergency back up, requireing a much higher power capacity device as well as a specific TOD pricing plan with a good or parity Feed In Tarrif, and as LFP said, software customised to your usage profile.
You would also have to ensure your EV was at home during those peak periods.
 
spinningmagnets said:
Whenever the discussion at work turns to EVs, a frequently expressed concern is that an EV can't do everything, but this is usually mentioned by someone who's family has two cars.

My wife works close to home, so she is a perfect candidate for an EV. And...when large EV batteries are only cycled in the fat middle of their range (3.3V to 4.0V), these packs are still running well after nearly 10 years of use.

What I most want is a plug and play black box in my garage that allows the EV to be used as a power back-up during a power outage.

If a grid-tie black box (for grid peak-trimming) had tax incentives and a short ROI, that might "prime the pump" to make EVs much more popular.

The benefits to the country and the planet are obvious, but persuading individuals that there is a direct benefit to their family might be a very productive addition to the campaign

You would need to paint it black, but many devices are out there. This 100kW unit, combined with a Tesla with a pack tap could supply your whole neighborhood, or be +-100kW peak demand shifting from your Tesla with the right software and upgraded home mains to pole transformer wiring. Depending on your area, it could be just months to ROI a 100kW peak shifting rig if operated correctly, you could also just wear out your Tesla/Bolt/Leaf/Ion pack in months of doing it wrong. It's also critical to disconnect from the grid immediately in the event power drops, because you will back-feed the HV line transformers with your inverter output, which is not what you want if you're doing HV power line maintenance work to repair blackout.
https://bangzhao.en.made-in-china.com/product/FXiEbpGLqJrU/China-100kw-Solar-Energy-System-300V-600VDC-off-Grid-Solar-Inverter.html
 
Environmental Defense Fund
EDF Activist Briefing | December 2018

Your December EDF activist briefing is here, with everything you need to know about the fight for a better environmental future that happened in the past month.

The National Climate Assessment
The Trump Administration tried unsuccessfully to bury a landmark government assessment of America’s climate and the major consequences global warming could have on countless regions, economies, and communities across the country.

From Maine, to Florida, to Chicago, Los Angeles, and Alaska the report saw extended daylight in the press and media, bringing much-needed attention to the bleak findings and the need for immediate action.

Vox distilled three big takeaways from the report, while The Atlantic looked at the three most chilling conclusions.

While many of the most harrowing findings looked to the future, the report also made clear that climate change is already here and killing us—and it’s doing so at an increasing rate.

In the end, the White House waved a white flag, yet still refused to acknowledge reality.

Read more: Fact checking the Trump administration’s climate change falsehoods (PDF)

An embarrassing U.S. showing in Poland
World leaders assembled in Poland last week to discuss climate action with a new sense of urgency as recent reports have further highlighted the need for immediate action to stem global warming.

The World Bank pledged $200 billion over five years to climate action. EDF joined other green groups in urging lawmakers to ensure sound carbon accounting—making sure that emissions reductions are not double-counted.

The U.S. was a key player in forging the Paris agreement in 2015, but our standing has steadily eroded following Trump’s 2017 announcement that he would pull the U.S. out of the global accord. From the resulting power vacuum, China has emerged as the powerbroker in global climate talks.

In an embarrassing sole public appearance, the official U.S. delegation failed to mention climate change a single time while promoting the “unapologetic utilization” of coal, oil and gas. It was the second consecutive year the Trump team was heckled after promoting fossil fuels and nuclear power at the climate talks.

U.S. negotiators also teamed up with Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait to block language “welcoming” a recent scientific report on the impacts of climate change.

To cap it off, President Trump took to Twitter to take credit for emissions reductions achieved by climate activists under the Obama administration—reductions that wouldn’t have been possible without the very same climate regulations his own administration has been working at a breakneck pace to undermine, weaken and eliminate. It’s just the latest way the Trump government is trolling the global climate community.

Read more: How EDF is helping China and other nations take big steps

More good news than you thought possible
You’ve seen and heard the bad news on TV, in the papers, and on social media. Now here’s the good news we all so desperately need:

Good news from the private sector:

US coal consumption is at nearly a 40 year low, building new renewable energy is now cheaper than running existing coal, and the biggest obstacle to U.S. climate progress—fossil fuel allies and climate deniers in Congress—got thumped in the midterms by pro-climate-action candidates.

Royal Dutch Shell is giving its executives a major incentive to reduce greenhouse gases by tying pay to target reductions in carbon emissions. Volkswagen is planning to open a major North American factory to produce electric vehicles.

In the past month, three major utility companies announced plans to reduce their carbon footprints: Ohio’s FirstEnergy first announced a plan to spend half a billion dollars modernizing their grid to provide cleaner energy to customers.

Just weeks later, Illinois’s Commonwealth Edison announced a new pricing scheme that will cut pollution by rewarding customers with lower electric rates during off-peak hours, reducing spikes in demand that bring the dirtiest power plants online to meet demand.

Soon after, Xcel Energy announced an unprecedented commitment to achieve 100% clean energy by 2050. The utility giant serves Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin.

EDF has teamed up with Kickstarter to launch an Environmental Resource Center and to urge project creators to publicly commit to sustainable environmental practices.

Kickstarter will now ask new project creators to commit to reducing their environmental impact in five key areas: long-lasting design, reusability and recyclability, sustainable materials, environmentally friendly factories, and sustainable distribution. Their responses will appear in a new “Environmental Commitments” section of their project pages.

The EDF-Kickstarter partnership was just one of many projects conducted through EDF Climate Corps, a fellowship program that connects young future sustainability leaders with forward-thinking companies to accelerate the transition to a clean energy future.

Good news from Washington:

With a new-look Congress set to take over in January, climate change could become a top priority. Here are five election winners who could head to Washington as climate crusaders fighting for a “Green New Deal.”

Already, a new bipartisan group of House members are proposing a carbon fee, while 25 of their colleagues in the Senate introduced a resolution recognizing the urgent need for climate action.

While Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer demands climate action be included in any infrastructure deal, Nancy Pelosi could seize this opportunity to revive a climate change committee in the House. These 3 steps would be a start toward defending our health and the environment from the Trump administration.

Republican climate hawks are using the National Climate Assessment’s findings to sway skeptics in their own party. One conservative is publicly speaking out to admit he was wrong on climate change.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has banned the use of lead acetate in consumer hair dyes. The decision was prompted by a 2017 petition from EDF and other public health groups.

Good news from the states:

At the state level, many incoming governors are making natural disasters and climate change a priority.

EDF sponsored a panel at the National Black Caucus of State Legislators 42nd Annual Legislative Conference. “Keeping it Green: Infrastructure, Jobs, and Economic Vitality” shared examples of model policies, like the Illinois Future Energy Jobs Act (FEJA) and New York’s Renewing Energy Vision (“REV”), that support and establish sustainable energy infrastructure to boost job growth in disadvantaged communities.

North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper issued an executive order affirming the state’s commitment to significantly reducing statewide greenhouse gas emissions.

In November, Colorado’s Air Quality Commissions voted unanimously to adopt new rules to reduce climate and air pollution from automobiles. EDF supplied an expert witness who provided crucial expertise that gave the Commission the deep understanding and confidence they needed in the face of very stiff headwinds.

Good news in the courts:

Also last month, a DC Circuit court rejected EPA’s motion to dismiss a legal challenge—brought by several state attorneys general, EDF, and other green groups—to EPA’s determination that national clean cars standards must be weakened. This victory provides critical leverage our legal team needs to stop Trump’s administration from derailing one of America’s most wildly successful environmental programs.

Good news goes global:

In November, EDF became the first environmental NGO to partner with the China Academy of Fisheries Sciences. We cohosted an international symposium on climate and fisheries attended by the president of the Academy, more than 100 Chinese scientists and officials, and experts from the U.S., Canada, Indonesia, Japan and Australia.

EDF is partnering with Chinese leaders to advance fishing reforms in the country, which is by far the world’s largest producer and consumer of seafood—China’s fishing practices will shape the health of oceans globally.

Japan’s legislature just passed sweeping reforms to its fishing laws, potentially opening the doors to a new era of sustainable fishing for the Asia-Pacific region. The reform package reflects many of EDF’s recommendations, including vastly expanding the number of species covered and requiring a recovery plans for overfished species within 10 years.

EDF was in the spotlight in Bali at the global “Our Ocean” conference, where our Indonesian team and partners announced an unprecedented new science-based management program for blue swimming crab—one of the country’s most lucrative export fisheries and a lifeline for thousands of people in the Java Sea region.

Read more: These red and blue states are tackling climate change since Trump won't

Election results recap
EDF Action spent nearly $9 million in over 30 races in pivotal battleground states this election cycle, helping to win a string of victories by holding incumbents accountable for voting to increase pollution—and supporting candidates with a strong environmental agenda.

Democrats promising to take strong action on climate and clean energy flipped seven governorships, six state legislative chambers, and more than 300 state House and Senate seats.

A number of anti-environment measures across the country failed. Voters in Colorado, Oregon and California rejected attempts to weaken environmental protections, while Nevadans voted to expand renewable energy.

Unfortunately, over $30 million spending from Big Oil overwhelmed a carbon fee initiative in Washington State.

Young people dramatically increased their turnout, which had major impacts on elections across the country—and clean energy was a big motivating issue.

EDF’s own Defend our Future youth organizers sent hundreds of thousands of emails, made more than 50,000 phone calls, and sent even more texts to remind supporters to keep climate change in mind when they headed to the polls.

A Defend our Future student supporter who wrote a letter to the editor on the imperative of acting on climate following publication of the UN climate report earned a response from Congresswoman-elect Madeleine Dean (PA-4).

Listen: EDF Engage’s November podcast on what the midterms mean for the environment

Odds and ends
If you’ve been behind on all the news, this interview with one of EDF’s leaders is a great place to catch up.

President Trump’s administration proposed a rollback of Obama-era protections against power plant pollution. As NYU Law professor Richard Revesz explains, the facts and law are against Trump. EDF’s legal team is already gearing up to challenge this latest attack.

The Washington Post reports that Trump will formally nominate Andrew Wheeler, a former coal lobbyist and current Acting Administrator at EPA, to become the next EPA chief. EDF’s senior vice president of Political Affairs appeared on CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 to discuss what we know about Andrew Wheeler.

Last week, EDF filed suit against EPA in a U.S. District Court for its failure to release records requested under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). The lawsuit focuses on four FOIA requests we filed in the past year and a half for records related to industry compliance with in-effect methane restrictions EPA is trying to weaken. EPA has also stonewalled other EDF requests for documents related to the agency's review of the Clean Power Plan and its assessment of high-emission glider trucks. In total, EDF has filed seven FOIA lawsuits against the Trump administration.

Take action: Demand Trump leaves protections from coal pollution in place

You can help us fight back
Your support is urgently needed to fund our legal challenge against Trump's recent attack on power plant carbon pollution limits.

Since the beginning of Trump’s Presidency, we’ve struck more blows to his administration’s anti-environmental agenda in the courts than anywhere else.

Their actions are so blatantly illegal that when we challenge them in court, we win.

But being easy to win doesn't make them any less costly, and we can’t see this fight through without your support.

Please make a gift to our legal challenge fund today and it will be tripled in value to beat back Trump's attacks on environmental protection.
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