Climate warming = more solar/storage

Solar, wind, hydro and other non-fossil sources of electricity.
billvon   100 MW

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Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by billvon » Oct 15 2018 12:38pm

I just got a note from a solar installer in Northern California. He is seeing a big increase (just this morning) in the number of orders for battery backed solar power systems.

As the climate warms, several things happen:

1) People turn on their air conditioners. Power demand goes up. More current flows through power lines. This warms them up and they expand (droop.)

2) The warmer weather warms up the power lines as well. They droop farther, coming closer to trees and other vegetation.

3) Vegetation gets drier and more prone to fire.

This has led to PG+E beginning to cut power to people in remote areas to prevent power lines from causing fires during dangerous (hot and windy) conditions. Battery systems prevent homes from losing power, and solar reduces the amount of heating that power lines see during the day (when fire risk is highest.)

From the power industry website UtilityDive:

=================================================
In a first, PG&E cuts power to 60,000 to prevent wildfires during wind storm

Oct. 15, 2018

Dive Brief:
Pacific Gas & Electric cut off electricity service to nearly 60,000 people on Sunday in a new attempt to prevent wildfires across Northern California service area during high winds and dry conditions.

The National Weather Service on Saturday issued a Red Flag Warning for the region, cautioning of extreme risk of wildfires due to low humidity and winds reaching above 50 miles per hour. High winds can cause power lines to come into contact with vegetation, igniting fires.

PG&E lines were found responsible for 16 fires last year and California lawmakers passed wildfire liability protections for utilities this summer after PG&E warned that fire costs could force it into bankruptcy or reorganization.


Dive Insight:
PG&E's voluntary shutoffs over the weekend are a reminder of the mounting pressure on California utilities to prevent wildfires against the backdrop of a warmer, drier climate.

Cutting electricity service is the "last resort" in a wildfire safety program rolled out by the utility last year to reduce the risk of fires that have burned thousands of square miles and killed dozens of people across the state in recent years. This weekend was the first time PG&E put that final step into action.

On Saturday, the utility warned customers in 12 counties they could experience service interruptions ahead of high winds forecasted for the following evening.

Just after 8 p.m. on Sunday, PG&E cut power to more than 17,000 customers in Lake, Napa and Sonoma counties based on the risk for wind gusts above 50 mph, the company announced on Twitter. Less than an hour later, it said 42,000 customers in El Dorado, Amador and Calaveras counties also had their electricity turned off.

The nearly 60,000 customers remained without power Monday morning. Most customers will see service restored today, the utility said in a release, but it will continue to monitor weather conditions.

. . . PG&E has warned that it will face more and larger fires in the future as a warmer climate creates more dangerous conditions for blazes. Already this year, California fires have burned more than 621,000 acres, according to state officials, a significant increase from the five year average burn of 215,000 acres.
=================
--bill von

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Hillhater » Oct 15 2018 5:59pm

billvon wrote:
Oct 15 2018 12:38pm
.

As the climate warms, several things happen:

1) People turn on their air conditioners. Power demand goes up. More current flows through power lines. This warms them up and they expand (droop.)

2) The warmer weather warms up the power lines as well. They droop farther, coming closer to trees and other vegetation.

3) Vegetation gets drier and more prone to fire.

This has led to PG+E beginning to cut power to people in remote areas to prevent power lines from causing fires during dangerous (hot and windy) conditions. Battery systems prevent homes from losing power, and solar reduces the amount of heating that power lines see during the day (when fire risk is highest.)

From the power industry website UtilityDive:

=================================================


Dive Insight:
PG&E's voluntary shutoffs over the weekend are a reminder of the mounting pressure on California utilities to prevent wildfires against the backdrop of a warmer, drier climate.
Hmm,? Sounds like an ass covering exercise hiding conveniently behind a GW excuse .!
Of course they could maintain their power line routes to remove vegitation in high risk areas..?
Or they could upgrade the power lines to keep pace with the increased demand that they are reaping higher income from ? (if you believe the extra sag line ?)
But of course, that would increase their operating costs.
So its easier/cheaper, to cut power to thousands, and eliminate the risk of being sued for starting wild fires. :roll:
Maybe someone should start a class action to sue the utility for various damages due to lack of supply, (death from overheating ?), or breach of a supply agreement ?
Im sure some of the eager, smart , CA lawers would leap at the chance. :lol:
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billvon   100 MW

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by billvon » Oct 15 2018 6:25pm

Hillhater wrote:
Oct 15 2018 5:59pm
Hmm,? Sounds like an ass covering exercise hiding conveniently behind a GW excuse .!
A solar installer seeing increased sales of solar+storage systems is an "ass covering exercise?" Whose ass, exactly, is he covering?
Of course they could maintain their power line routes to remove vegitation in high risk areas..?
Which they are doing. It's possible in many places, but not in others. If your power lines are crossing a 200 foot deep ravine in the high mountains, though, what are you going to do? Send a guy out with a lawnmower? Helicopter log the area? (just keep away from any power lines!)
Or they could upgrade the power lines to keep pace with the increased demand that they are reaping higher income from ?
(if you believe the extra sag line ?)[/quote]
They are doing that as well. That would solve the demand problem - but not the problem from heating due to warmer temperatures.

Of course, you could upgrade to deal with climate change as well - design the system to accept, say, an additional 7 degrees F of warming, to cover us through 2100. Who is going to pay for that?
(if you believe the extra sag line ?)
Given that it's already caused fires - not too much room to do the denial thing there.
===================================
Sagging Power Lines Ignited Deadly Cascade Fire, Officials Say
POSTED 12:16 PM, OCTOBER 9, 2018, BY ERIC RUCKER AND AP
FOX News 40 Sacramento

YUBA COUNTY -- California fire officials say two sagging Pacific Gas and Electric Co. power lines made contact and ignited a blaze last year that killed four people and injured a firefighter.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said Tuesday strong winds caused the lines to touch, creating an electrical arc that sent molten material onto dry vegetation below.

The blaze in Yuba County that started on Oct. 8, 2017, scorched 15 square miles and destroyed 264 structures. Four people lost their lives.

(PG+E statement:)

"As independent experts have confirmed, extreme weather, years of drought, and millions of dead trees are feeding an unprecedented risk of wildfires. In light of this, we recognize we all need to do even more to help reduce the risk of wildfires, and are committed to working together with our state and community partners to develop comprehensive safety solutions for the future.

We look forward to the opportunity to carefully review the CAL FIRE report to understand the agency’s perspectives.

In the meantime, we are continuing to focus on implementing additional precautionary measures intended to further reduce wildfire threats, such as working to remove and reduce dangerous vegetation, improving weather forecasting, upgrading emergency response warnings, making lines and poles stronger in high fire threat areas and taking other actions to make our system, and our customers and communities, even safer in the face of a growing wildfire threat."
==================================
So its easier/cheaper, to cut power to thousands, and eliminate the risk of being sued for starting wild fires.
It is safer to cut power to thousands to reduce the risk of wild fires. (They do other bad things other than lawsuits, like killing people.)
Maybe someone should start a class action to sue the utility for various damages due to lack of supply, (death from overheating ?), or breach of a supply agreement ?
Good idea! You could sue the oil companies contributing to climate change, thus requiring the utilities to spend all this money. Get right on that.
--bill von

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Hillhater » Oct 15 2018 8:30pm

billvon wrote:
Oct 15 2018 6:25pm
Hillhater wrote:
Oct 15 2018 5:59pm
Hmm,? Sounds like an ass covering exercise hiding conveniently behind a GW excuse .!
A solar installer seeing increased sales of solar+storage systems is an "ass covering exercise?" Whose ass, exactly, is he covering?..
Check again bill.....there was no mention od a solar installer in my reply.
You know i was refering to the power utility...... :roll:
billvon wrote:
Oct 15 2018 6:25pm
Of course they could maintain their power line routes to remove vegitation in high risk areas..?
Which they are doing. It's possible in many places, but not in others. If your power lines are crossing a 200 foot deep ravine in the high mountains, though, what are you going to do? Send a guy out with a lawnmower? Helicopter log the area? (just keep away from any power lines!)
If you are crossing a 200' ravine, you would need a LOT of sag to cause a problem.!
billvon wrote:
Oct 15 2018 6:25pm
Or they could upgrade the power lines to keep pace with the increased demand that they are reaping higher income from ?.. (if you believe the extra sag line ?)
They are doing that as well. That would solve the demand problem - but not the problem from heating due to warmer temperatures.
Exactly how much extra sag does 0.5degC cause ?
I think a smart power systems engineer might allow for that increase...and a line crew could easily adjust for it .
billvon wrote:
Oct 15 2018 6:25pm
Maybe someone should start a class action to sue the utility for various damages due to lack of supply, (death from overheating ?), or breach of a supply agreement ?
Good idea! You could sue the oil companies contributing to climate change, thus requiring the utilities to spend all this money. Get right on that.
Nah !...That has been tried and failed...
To succeed you have to have conclusive evidence, and that simply does not exist !

It still sounds to me like the power company has a problem they dont want to fix ($$$s) , and simply are trying to justify turning power off to avoid liability.
These issues have been known about for years and dealt with.. (Shorter spans, line spacing, ground clearing , etc etc)..CA is not the firt place to have faced this.
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billvon   100 MW

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by billvon » Oct 15 2018 9:40pm

Hillhater wrote:
Oct 15 2018 8:30pm
Check again bill.....there was no mention od a solar installer in my reply.
Ah, so you didn't read the original post! That explains your confusion. The original post started with a note that a solar installer in California is seeing a significant increase in demand for solar+storage.
If you are crossing a 200' ravine, you would need a LOT of sag to cause a problem.!
And why do you think that?
Exactly how much extra sag does 0.5degC cause ?
About 25cm for a 250m span (from an study done in Sweden.) So two meters for the expected temp rise by 2100.
I think a smart power systems engineer might allow for that increase...and a line crew could easily adjust for it .
Sure, as long as they didn't have to deal with deniers like yourself on their crew. Denying the temperature is going to increase is a sure way to have problems in the long run.
Nah !...That has been tried and failed.. To succeed you have to have conclusive evidence, and that simply does not exist !
Yep. Enough deniers like yourself on utility planning teams and we are sure to have problems.

"Hey, we should allow for another 5C temperature rise in our design, so that in the future . . ."
"WHAT? No proof! I will NEVER sign off on anything like that! It won't get hotter. It's all a Chinese hoax."
It still sounds to me like the power company has a problem they dont want to fix ($$$s) , and simply are trying to justify turning power off to avoid liability.
They ARE fixing it. Once again, it would be wise to read before replying.
These issues have been known about for years and dealt with.. (Shorter spans, line spacing, ground clearing , etc etc)..CA is not the firt place to have faced this.
You are correct there. As temperatures increase across the country, this problem will hit more and more people - no matter how much you deny it.
--bill von

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by craneplaneguy » Oct 15 2018 10:11pm

I'm grid tied, and therefore in a kind of partnership with my utility. After being off grid for 28 years, I feel like I may have a different perspective on them. Where I'm at anyway, they need to make enough profit to continue in business, and as demands on their system increases, there will be issues at times. I think they do an incredible job, it's pretty amazing when you think about what they have to do.....not talking about power production here but distribution. I also have a good friend who is a retired lineman, and it can be super dangerous work (duh).

The public will bitch when things don't go right, when problems crop up, and then they will bitch when their rates rise to cover the expense of fixing the problem. Their profit and losses is all public record, they are doing the best they can, while keeping the rates low as possible. If one wants to think they are an evil corporation out to steal the public blind, go off grid or shut up! Nothing wrong with bringing problems to their attention of course, just remember fixing a problem may result in higher rates, we are all in this togther. As much as I am happy to NOT have batteries anymore (except in my bikes), that sounds like it would help.

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Dauntless » Oct 15 2018 10:24pm

Vegetation gets drier and more prone to fire.
Hmm,? Sounds like an ass covering exercise hiding conveniently behind a GW excuse .!
https://www-m.cnn.com/2018/10/15/health ... cnn.com%2F
Any sufficiently advanced technology is INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM MAGIC!
- Arthur C. Clarke

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Hillhater » Oct 16 2018 12:15am

Ahh ! That CNN article on beer costs increasing because if AGW..
"The aim of the study is not to encourage people to drink more today," said Dabo Guan, a co-author of the study and a professor of climate change economics at University of East Anglia in Norwich, United Kingdom. Instead, the study is trying to say that climate change will impact your quality of life
The UEA again !.. :shock: they have their fingerprint on so much AGW BS, its incredible.
They seem to deliberately twist everything into a AGW angle.
Its a pity they dont spend more time checking the HADcrut Global Temp data records that they are responsible for..
Somehow they included weeks of freezing zero degree data reported from a pacific island, and those months of 80+ C days in south America ,or the ocean temperatures recorded at 100 km inland in indonesia ? :shock: ...
.... but they were probably too busy "adjusting" the data sets from older records to fit their predictions. :roll:
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Hillhater   100 GW

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Hillhater » Oct 16 2018 12:34am

billvon wrote:
Oct 15 2018 9:40pm
Hillhater wrote:
Oct 15 2018 8:30pm
Check again bill.....there was no mention od a solar installer in my reply.
Ah, so you didn't read the original post! That explains your confusion. The original post started with a note that a solar installer in California is seeing a significant increase in demand for solar+storage..!
Oh , i saw it'...but just ignored it as one of your solar pro-mo inserts :lol:
billvon wrote:
Oct 15 2018 9:40pm
Exactly how much extra sag does 0.5degC cause ?
About 25cm for a 250m span (from an study done in Sweden.) So two meters for the expected temp rise by 2100..
25 cm sag for 0.5C temp rise ??
Gee, i wonder how those places deal with a 40-50C )temp swing from season to season currently :roll: ?
...... And you are expecting an 8C temp increase by 2100 ? :lol:
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Punx0r   100 GW

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Punx0r » Oct 16 2018 3:21am

It's probably pointless to explain this, but:

It's not a 0.5°C rise. An increase in MEAN GLOBAL temperature means the MEAN LOCAL temperature in some parts of the world will be greater (and some less). Then for a given local mean shift there will be greater swings in extreme temperatures due to the distribution of daily temperatures (bell curve). Oh, and in some place the wind will also get worse at the same time.

So for a 0.5 or 1.0°C increase in global mean some places could get ~5°C hotter on heat-wave days. And the number of days over a given temperature will be disproportionately greater than before.

Or is basic statistics also a conspiracy cooked up by the UEA? :lol:

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Hillhater » Oct 16 2018 6:17am

Punx0r wrote:
Oct 16 2018 3:21am
Or is basic statistics also a conspiracy cooked up by the UEA? :lol:
Well, you know the saying...
"There are lies, big lies, and then there are Statistics .!
..if you know anything about statistics, then you know ow easy it is to manipulate data to your advantage.
.....and if your data source is corrupt, and you dont bother to check it, then all your statistics and predictions are worthless.

So yes....Pointless !
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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Punx0r » Oct 16 2018 7:41am

That response is pretty typical of someone who doesn't know anything about statistics.

So are you saying in Hillhater World, if global warming is, say, 0.5°C and my local min-max annual temperature is, say, -10°C and +30°C then after warming I can expect -9.5°C and +30.5°C?
Last edited by Punx0r on Oct 16 2018 9:12am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Hillhater » Oct 16 2018 8:01am

Why would i say that ?
Ultimately i do not believe you can calculate a repeatable "global" average temperature...its a rediculous concept in an environment tha has temperatures of -30 C, and +50C at the same time, and constantly varying. !
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Punx0r   100 GW

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Punx0r » Oct 16 2018 9:15am

Do you know what "average" (technically, "mean") means?

It's hardly an abstract concept. You can demonstrate it yourself with a thermometer and basic arithmetic.

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by billvon » Oct 16 2018 10:46am

Hillhater wrote:
Oct 16 2018 8:01am
Ultimately i do not believe you can calculate a repeatable "global" average temperature...its a rediculous concept in an environment tha has temperatures of -30 C, and +50C at the same time, and constantly varying. ! . ..
"There are lies, big lies, and then there are Statistics .!"
Thank God you're not an engineer.
--bill von

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Punx0r » Oct 16 2018 4:17pm

Or a bookie!

Hillhater   100 GW

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Hillhater » Oct 16 2018 7:57pm

Punx0r wrote:
Oct 16 2018 9:15am
Do you know what "average" (technically, "mean") means?
It's hardly an abstract concept. You can demonstrate it yourself with a thermometer and basic arithmetic.
Sure but to be truely valid , you would have to do it with thousands of thermometers all at the exact same time.
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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Hillhater » Oct 16 2018 7:59pm

billvon wrote:
Oct 16 2018 10:46am
Thank God you're not an engineer.
Yet again bill, you are wrong ! :wink:
Certainly not a Brunel, Shewhart, or Deming, ..but i made a good living at it !
You should start questioning your judgement...on many things .
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Punx0r   100 GW

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Punx0r » Oct 17 2018 2:36am

If you have a dozen factories making beer cans each at a rate of thousands per hour, is it not possible to determine the average strength of a can from each line, each factory and across all factories? And then whether there is any gradual change over months/years in any metric? Even though you can't measure every can? And there are different shapes and styles of cans, different work shifts, input materials from different sources, different machines, workers, weather, geographic separation etc.?

Of course you can: you use statistics.

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Hillhater » Oct 17 2018 8:02am

You probably could, but its not something that would be very usful.
Anybody can crunch numbers but you have to use accurate and relavent data sources.
One of the fundamental issues is the range (spread) of the data ( 100 C ). relative to the required accuracy of the result (0.01C ?)
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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Punx0r » Oct 17 2018 10:27am

Hillhater wrote:
Oct 17 2018 8:02am
One of the fundamental issues is the range (spread) of the data ( 100 C ). relative to the required accuracy of the result (0.01C ?)
It is possible to measure to that accuracy but I suspect it is not necessary. One of the beauties of large datasets is that random noise (measurement inaccuracy) can be cancelled out.
Hillhater wrote:
Oct 17 2018 8:02am
You probably could, but its not something that would be very usful.
I would be very surprised if a Tier 1 manufacturer didn't make such measurements. Not only for internal quality control and product optimisation but to satisfy the almost inevitable product specification-compliance documentation required by the customer.

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by billvon » Oct 17 2018 12:23pm

Hillhater wrote:
Oct 16 2018 7:59pm
Certainly not a Brunel, Shewhart, or Deming, ..but i made a good living at it !
Let's hope, then, that your lack of understanding of statistical processes never puts anyone at risk from your designs.

"Hey, this was supposed to operate across the temperature specs, and it failed after cold soak! What happened?"
"Look, there's no way to know what temperature something's going to get to. I mean, sure, there's statistical data, but there are lies, big lies, and then there are Statistics!"
--bill von

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by billvon » Oct 17 2018 12:28pm

Punx0r wrote:
Oct 17 2018 10:27am
I would be very surprised if a Tier 1 manufacturer didn't make such measurements. Not only for internal quality control and product optimisation but to satisfy the almost inevitable product specification-compliance documentation required by the customer.
They do indeed do exactly that. They use surprisingly small sample sizes to accurately gauge the distribution of a variable (can strength, metal usage, temperature) to monitor a process or the change in an environment.
--bill von

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by Hillhater » Oct 17 2018 4:01pm

billvon wrote:
Oct 17 2018 12:28pm
Punx0r wrote:
Oct 17 2018 10:27am
I would be very surprised if a Tier 1 manufacturer didn't make such measurements. Not only for internal quality control and product optimisation but to satisfy the almost inevitable product specification-compliance documentation required by the customer.
They do indeed do exactly that. They use surprisingly small sample sizes to accurately gauge the distribution of a variable (can strength, metal usage, temperature) to monitor a process or the change in an environment.
I can assure you the Can industry doesnt do that !
They sample and control to specification the variables on each production line, (or machine if multiples),
There is no reason or advantage to mix data samples across lines or production plants.
Sure , you might compare results, averages and variability etc, between lines nd production units, but combining sample data is not done.
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billvon   100 MW

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Re: Climate warming = more solar/storage

Post by billvon » Oct 17 2018 4:13pm

Hillhater wrote:
Oct 17 2018 4:01pm
I can assure you the Can industry doesnt do that !
They sample and control to specification the variables on each production line, (or machine if multiples)
Yes, that's what I said. And they use very small samples to do that, and then statistical methods to infer distribution of each variable. Fortunately, they do not believe as you do, that statistical analysis is worse than "damned lies."
--bill von

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