Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

JackFlorey said:
Hillhater said:
The only technologies that are proven to work currently, are fosssil fuels and Nuclear (fission)
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650 gigawatts of working solar says you are wrong.
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Sorry jack, you will have to be sharper than that to avoid the real issue.
The “backbone” of a power system is not what supplies 50%+,of the energy, but what continuous power whenever its needed to keep the lights on and industry running when the weather isnt co operating.. and there is NO RE technology that can do y\that currently.
And show me where said solar and wind would be “gone” in 10yrs, ?
I said that it can never be a replacement for Fossil generated power.
But if you want a bet jack, im game...just a little clarification using YOUR numbers..
IE, that 650GW of solar..( or however much more is built ).... to generate an AVERAGE of 650GW over a 12 month period by 2030 ??
 
Solar electricity production in California peaked at 8 GW yesterday. Electricitymap.org states an installed capacity of 13 GW.
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90797705_2816491725096588_3936810548712177664_n.jpg

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Hillhater said:
But if you want a bet jack, im game...just a little clarification using YOUR numbers..
IE, that 650GW of solar..( or however much more is built ).... to generate an AVERAGE of 650GW over a 12 month period by 2030 ??
Click to expand...
I knew you'd try to back out! You had a chance to put your money where your mouth was - and you ran just as fast as you could.
 
"We would need one and a half Earths to sustain the existing economy into the future. Every year this ecological overshoot continues, the foundations of our existence, and that of other species, are undermined.

At the same time, there are great multitudes around the world who are, by any humane standard, under-consuming, and the humanitarian challenge of eliminating global poverty is likely to increase the burden on ecosystems still further.

Meanwhile the population is set to hit 11 billion this century. Despite this, the richest nations still seek to grow their economies without apparent limit.

Like a snake eating its own tail, our growth-orientated civilisation suffers from the delusion that there are no environmental limits to growth. But rethinking growth in an age of limits cannot be avoided. The only question is whether it will be by design or disaster." https://theconversation.com/life-in-a-degrowth-economy-and-why-you-might-actually-enjoy-it-32224
 
JackFlorey said:
Hillhater said:
But if you want a bet jack, im game...just a little clarification using YOUR numbers..
IE, that 650GW of solar..( or however much more is built ).... to generate an AVERAGE of 650GW over a 12 month period by 2030 ??
Click to expand...
I knew you'd try to back out! You had a chance to put your money where your mouth was - and you ran just as fast as you could.
Click to expand...
I thought i was making it easier for you jack !
Just betting that the 650GW you say is available now, will not even be able produces that average power in 10 years time ??
You want that bet ?
But if you prefer your version.....
...... 2 x 650 GW in 10 years ...
OK..but that has to be 1300GW of power GENERATED ..averaged over the year ?
Bet on ?
 
Nate Hagens wrote today: "We are in the midst of a global pandemic. But SARS-Cov2 is only the proximate risk. Ultimately, the virus is laying bare many of the problems that have built up over decades: chasms of inequality, the use of virtual debt to paper over physical world problems, ecological/systems ignorance, addiction, obesity, globalized just-in-time (and fragile) supply chains (especially for basic needs), and fractured political governance— all in service of the growth dynamic, as described in this paper, and this video. We have chosen economic efficiency over resilience. We have substituted technological stimulation and money for social interactions. We have substituted dopamine and supernormal stimulation (most of us, including me) for physical health. The game has been the plan, and the game has changed so rapidly that we have no plan."
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https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-03-25/an-overview-of-the-systemic-implications-of-the-coronavirus/
 
^^^ All very logical,..until he gets to the end point of these dramatic reduction in oil &Gas prices encouraging the change to “cheaper” energy sources , such as solar and wind, ??
If anything, a 50% reduction in primary fuel costs ( Natural Gas) , would most likely reduce the attraction of alternative energy sources ?
 
Hillhater said:
If anything, a 50% reduction in primary fuel costs ( Natural Gas) , would most likely reduce the attraction of alternative energy sources ?
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Yep, and that's what will dramatically extend the lifetime of our remaining oil. Demand will drop due to alternatives, but won't go away completely because the demand drop will also reduce the price of the remaining oil, making it more competitive again. Tight oil will no longer be profitable, so the remaining industries that need oil will be drawing from the more traditional wells.
 
Hillhater said:
^^^ All very logical,..until he gets to the end point of these dramatic reduction in oil &Gas prices encouraging the change to “cheaper” energy sources , such as solar and wind, ??
If anything, a 50% reduction in primary fuel costs ( Natural Gas) , would most likely reduce the attraction of alternative energy sources ?
Click to expand...

He didn't say it would encourage it. He remarked on the opportunity to use the savings, plus the reduced value of oil discouraging expensive mining operations such as the oil sands so there would be a future of shortages.

It must be horrible to hear someone try to be optimistic even as he uses words such as "Bleak."
 
JackFlorey said:
ZeroEm said:
I'm attracted to how much cleaner the atmosphere is.
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Yep. We can do it if there's a reason.
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As long as we totally redesign social organization and the economy to allow (all of) us to flourish equitably with the things we really need. With a much smaller energy total during a controlled degrowth period which somehow avoids collapse.
 
sendler2112 said:
JackFlorey said:
ZeroEm said:
I'm attracted to how much cleaner the atmosphere is.
Click to expand...
Yep. We can do it if there's a reason.
Click to expand...

As long as we totally redesign social organization and the economy to allow (all of) us to flourish equitably with the things we really need. With a much smaller energy total during a controlled degrowth period which somehow avoids collapse.
Click to expand...

Good. We've basically been running the same playbook set during the 50's anyway and it's LONG out of date.
 
Dauntless said:
Hillhater said:
ZeroEm said:
I'm attracted to how much cleaner the atmosphere is.
Click to expand...
What do you believe has caused that to happen ?
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Don't fall for it. You KNOW this is a setup.
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Nahh !... just trying to pry out the unspoken implication ! :wink:
.... maybe the wind direction changed ? :roll:
 
"Building the level of renewable generation and storage necessary to reach the state’s goals would drive up costs exponentially, from $49 per megawatt-hour of generation at 50 percent to $1,612 at 100 percent.
And that’s assuming lithium-ion batteries will cost roughly a third what they do now."
.
https://medium.com/mit-technology-review/the-2-5-trillion-reason-we-cant-rely-on-batteries-to-clean-up-the-grid-10b1d7c7090d
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sendler2112 said:
As long as we totally redesign social organization and the economy to allow (all of) us to flourish equitably with the things we really need. With a much smaller energy total during a controlled degrowth period which somehow avoids collapse.
Click to expand...
Well, that's a whole mismash of "social justice" and energy use - but agreed, it would be a big change.
 
sendler2112 said:
"Building the level of renewable generation and storage necessary to reach the state’s goals would drive up costs exponentially, from $49 per megawatt-hour of generation at 50 percent to $1,612 at 100 percent. And that’s assuming lithium-ion batteries will cost roughly a third what they do now.
Click to expand...
Yep. Silly to supply 100% of our needs from batteries. They are best used to replace peakers, with the bulk of our energy coming from load-synchronous renewables and base load power coming from nuclear.
 
JackFlorey said:
Yep. Silly to supply 100% of our needs from batteries. They are best used to replace peakers, with the bulk of our energy coming from load-synchronous renewables and base load power coming from nuclear.
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Ahh, yes..the “idealist” view .!
Unfortunately the reality is that the states dont want nuclear either...which is why there is so much Gas..
...and Renewables are are too unreliable to depend on for “bulk” power, such that you never know how much battery, ..(or other source)..back up you may need.
 
"In fact, we could discuss details for a long time, but nobody in good faith can deny that humanity, as a whole, has largely passed the Planet’s limits of sustainability. Just to mention a few numbers, today the technosphere (a.k.a. anthroposphere, that is humanity with all its infrastructures and symbionts) amounts to about 40,000 million tons, some 4,500 tons per person.

We and our domestic animals are about 98% of the world’s fauna, about 40% of the Earth’s surface is completely artificialized (urban, suburban, agricultural, etc.), 37% is made up of natural habitats heavily modified for anthropic use (pastures and almost all forests), only 23% can still be classified as 'wild' (a few remote forests, but almost only deserts, mountain tops, and Arctic regions)."
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2020/04/fate-is-coming-back-what-do-we-do-when.html
 
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