sendler2112 wrote: ↑
Jan 10, 2018 9:50 am
Oh you mean similar to how most solar references are made to nameplate capacity where actual production will be 1/4 at best and Germany averages 11% capacity factor for it's solar.
That's the song you sing continously, without anyone ever arguing against you about that.
I know that 1kW is not the same as 1kWh and when talking about energy I'm talking about kWh, no matter the technology.
Electricity generation from nuclear power worldwide increases from 2.5 trillion kWh in 2015 to 3.2 trillion kWh in 2030 and to 3.7 trillion kWh in 2040 in the IEO2017 Reference case.
maybe, maybe not, we will see.
What is the world whole energy consumption(!!!) in kWh end energy for 2015, 2030 and 2040?
Virtually all of the projected net expansion in world installed nuclear power capacity occurs in non-OECD countries, led by China’s addition of 111 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity from 2015 to 2040
We will see.
"...Virtually all of the projected net expansion in world installed nuclear power capacity occurs in non-OECD countries, led by China’s addition of 111 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity from 2015 to 2040.
The combined capacity of all OECD nuclear power plants drops by a net 14 GW from 2015 to 2040. Among the OECD regions, only South Korea has a sizable (16 GW) increase in nuclear capacity. Capacity reductions in the United States, Canada, OECD Europe, and Japan (where nuclear capacity in 2040 in the Reference case remains below the total before the March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster) more than offset the increase in South Korea’s nuclear capacity..."
Let us assume that it is +111GW increase in global nuclear capacity
New global PV Installation will be around 50GW for 2017 to a cummulative 120GW. This is real world, not IEA prediction/wishes.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/09/14/ ... ergytrend/
If only a constat 50GW would be added year by year in 2040 world global PV would be at more than 1000GW. It is much more likely that it will be much higher, lets say 3000GW (every number is highly speculative here)
You are right that capacity factor of PV is lower than nuclear. Let's say 0,15 (global average) vs 0,9 (very optimitsic).
So (optimistic) 111GW of new nukes at 8760h * (optimistic) 0,9 = 875TWh nuclear electricity
3000GW of new PV at 8760h * 0,15 = 3942 TWh solar PV electricity
Even at current installation rates and a very pessimistic and unrealistic 1000GW of new PV we are talking about 1314 TWh of solar electricity
In reality we woul need much, much more PV instalaltion, lets talk about 10,000GW and more until 2040 if we want to switch from fossil fuels
This is possible, just a matter of will.
1000GW of new nukes would be possible, too, but this will be Ultra expensiv, you have to give them to poor countries almost for free (incl the distribution grid), you have to use breeder technology which includes Plutonium profileration, you have to find a place to dump the waste and you have to deal with an exploding reactor every few years.
And still it would not be enough electricity.
I'm not opoosing nuclear power plants, I just oppose them for my country because of the risc and cost involved in densly populated Areas. If China builds them that's fine for me.
I doubt that they will provide a real solution to the worlds CO2 Problem, especially because nuclear addicts are always talking about nuclear vs RE and never talking about nuclear plus RE.
Probably (and hopefully) we will have one Billion electric cars in 2040. They will Need electricity.
One single shitty Bitcoin transaction now consumes more than 300kWh. The whole bitcoin stuff consumes more electricity than several millions of electric cars for nothing of value. This is insane.
sendler2112 wrote: ↑
Jan 10, 2018 7:44 am
...CO2 emissions are predicted to increase every year and be 16% higher in 2040 than 2017.
We will see.
I assume at that CO2 emissions we will already experince very significant Impacts of a warming atmosphere, including burning Woods, huge floodings, much more water ressource wars, hurricans strengthes never experinced before and so on.
I assume that in such a scenario People will have learned that cheap energy from coal and oil is in reality NOT cheap but very costly.