Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear
Posted: Feb 09, 2018 4:07 pm
We will have to eventually reshape society to allow for days long blackouts after the fossil fuel gets scarce.
Electric Vehicle and Technology Forums
Or they might have to charge their EV's during the day instead of at night. Or run air conditioning only when it's hot out during the day. O the horror.
Depends on who is in charge. If we have more visionaries pushing for a rapid changeover to renewables, then we will have centuries of fossil fuels to use - although at that point, it would be more accurate to call them "fossil feedstocks" because their primary use will be as chemical feedstocks for plastics/fertilizers/pharmaceuticals, with a smaller amount going to fuel hard-to-replace applications (long distance aviation, spaceflight.)
Yes it seems like most Australians believe renewables will be cheap (except now via brute force in South Australia) and they trust their state governments can do a good job of making it happen despite everything so far. Malcome Turnbull while half half trying to be a conservative also can't help but be supportive of the most easily absorbable idea that renewables can solve all their problems.Hillhater wrote: ↑Feb 06, 2018 10:22 pmWhilst the S Australian state Govmt have established a visible example of a disfunctional power plan, they are not alone.
Victoria is rapidly following down the same track forcing coal plants to shut, and even QLD ,..a coal "Anchor" state has pledged to be 50% Re by 2030.
Federal Govrmt is no better, playing political word games and setting up commities and control organisations (NEG) to appear to have a plan.
The latest thought bubble is to distribute "Smart Meters" to consumers to support a "Demand Management". Program.
What that actually means they want to force consumers to change their lifestyle to reduce the demand peaks, and if necessary, they can use smart meters to regulate supply if things get critical.
Few in Politics see the seriousness of this situation, with mostly just blame shifting and finger pointing to score political points, Meanwhile , SA steams towards another inevitable power blackout at some point.
I dont want to see it happen, because of the cost , inconvenience, and danger, to alll residents, but i fear it will take a major power failure with serious consequences (deaths ?) before something significant is done.
Certainly, ...but there is a difference between "market economics", And a truely "free market" without subsidies, tax breaks, preferential supply agreements ,..etc.
Building costs is only one component of power plant economic assesment....... Building new coal is more expensive than building new renewable energy across the U.S. , ....
Intermittent walking-speed driving due to traffic is reality for a many drivers. It's not ideal, but is workable.
Check some of the charts previously posted for Germany, or SAustralia, or watch the King Island "Dashboard" , ....there are many examples where the wind contribution is zero and below 10% for days.
Im sure there is much thought put into location of Wind turbines, but that just makes the poor results worse !
Good point. Coal is currently being propped up by a corrupt government; they have also tried to legislate solar out of existence by putting draconian tariffs on panels. And of course nuclear has had billion-dollar government coverage for decades.
Exactly right. And with zero fuel costs, it's hard to beat renewables for long term cost.Building costs is only one component of power plant economic assesment. Designed Operating life , capacity factor, maintenance and operating costs, etc etc ......all have to be considered.
While I like electrictymap I think sometimes it doesn't work quite right in all area and its creators would argue that they just don't have all the data yet or the data generation providers aren't working properly atm.sendler2112 wrote: ↑Feb 10, 2018 8:48 amIt's easy to become over optimistic about solar for the rest of the world when you live in a warm, sunny place like California. But Australia could eventually do similar. NY will have to do near shore wind at the lakes edge and off of Long Island. And residents will need to stop resisting it.
Well that would be an interesting senario...
But fuel cost is only a minor factor in the economic comparison....with zero fuel costs, it's hard to beat renewables for long term cost....
They dont seem to wait for the wind to pick up, they just recharge whenever the cost drops sufficiently.jonescg wrote: ↑Feb 11, 2018 6:41 amUsually 30 MW under discharge, and when the wind is really blowing, up to 30 MW charge. The windows of high prices usually last about 2-3 hours.
Or commitment to RE without a total economic shutdown. (Which is far more likely.)
True. It's mainly construction and insurance costs there.But fuel cost is only a minor factor in the economic comparison.
Horses had centuries of proven economic utility for general transportation. Does that mean cars will never compete?With a 50+ year proven operating life for coal and Nuclear, its hard to see wind or solar competing on full life costs.
From the Hornsdale Power Reserve site....( note the project name also)
It has certainly succeeded in "Trading on the Electricity market" ,.... Earning several million dollars so far.A portion of the battery will also be dedicated to trading on the electricity market. This capacity will be used to store power from the Hornsdale Wind Farm when demand is low and dispatch it when demand is high, reducing the need for expensive gas ‘peaking plants’ and placing downward pressure on power prices for South Australian consumers.......
.....At 100MW/129MWh, the Hornsdale Power Reserve is the largest lithium-ion battery in the world. When dispatching at peak output, the battery provides enough electricity to power the equivalent of 30,000 homes.
Odd analogy bill ?