Hillhater wrote: ↑
Jul 17, 2018 7:32 pm
A paper plan is just that...a plan on paper ! ... It does not answer any of the questions.
Accellerated installations beyond previous achievements ..how ?
What the hell are you talking about? Germany installed more of 7GW PV anually during 2010-2012 and the months with highest instalaltion rates has seen added 3GW in one month.
Similar with wind energy. You only accelqrted insatlaltion rates for offshore wind and this is quite plausible.
There is zero restrrictions in logistics, Manpower or ressources (or Money), ist just a matter of will, economics/politics and places to install wind turbines.
Becuase x-thousands of German wind turinines are old designs and small an ineffective there is a hug potential for repowering during the next years. Replacing old wind power plants with half as many newer and larger wind power plants will produce 3 tims more energy. And the ywill produce energy more constantly with much, much higher usage rate.
Solar investment has practically dried up since the rebate schemes were cut, and wind is looking at similar prospects.
I was talking about Germany. There are no rebat schems. We have a "simple" FIT system.
Large solar and all wind is now installad via auctions. They have their own Problems, but prices are super cheap now at around 4ct/kWh for both technologies.
Small PV power plants cold see a bit mor growth ideally.
Starting in 2021 old PV power plants will leave the FIT System. On the one Hand this means much reduced costs (those old Systems get 50ct/kWh)
but there Needs to be a System how to use the electricity further.
Small residental PV power plants that are 20 years old ususally still work very well (as has been seen from the old 1000 rooftop programm) , so most likely they will last for 30 to 40 years.
And then there is that issue of finding acceptable, practical, locations for all this new infrastructure.
Costs of the current position are already a topic of political debate, so the impact of future costs will not pass easily.
It#s already calculated. There is more than enough space for new wind power plants even in Germany, but political will/Opposition varies from federal state to federal state.
It will not happen without the political will and public Support, but there is no technological barrier.
Shutting down the last of our old and unflexible nuclear power plants in 2022 will help significantly.
If political and public opinion changes 60% RE will not happen. It's a plan for the future and so far it looks to be on track.
Other People had sad that 10% RE are impossible, than 20% are impossible, than 30% are impossible than 40% are impossible and yat in first half of 2018 we are at more than 40% RE in cloudy and densly populated Germany with Little sun and Little wind and high energy consumption.
50% is possible, 60% is possible and even 80% is possible.
After taht it will get more complicated with need for storage and power2x, but that's the future.
next step is 60% RE for 2030, ca. 50% being solar and wind.
Cost for grid and System Integration will grow, but at 4ct/kWh for NEW PV and wind and the huge cost for old PV and old biomass slowly going away in 2030 we will expect to pay less for RE electricity than today.
Here is a quite detailled Excel tool where you can make your own calculations for the EEG costs:
https://www.agora-energiewende.de/veroe ... uer-excel/
This is the manual (sadly both are in German)
https://www.agora-energiewende.de/veroe ... g-rechner/
EEG costs are not 100% of the true costs, you have to include grid costs, costs for less usage on fossil fuel plants (in €/kWh) and costs for grid Services, but it gives a good idea.
Much better than guessing into the blue