sendler2112 wrote: ↑
Dec 14 2018 1:11pm
4MW onshore turbines average 1MW so 220,000 turbines. 8,800 per year forever.
The manufacture, transport, and installation of 300 ton turbines on 1500 ton pads has no rational relationship to a factory mass assembling cars.
A new 4MW wind turbine on a 135m tower has a much better load capacity than the 10 or 20 year old smaller wind turbines.
Average production is around 14,000 MWh/year for those. (3500h/year)
Offshore wind is even better at 4,500 to 5,000 hours/year on the rated capacity
Using electricity for mobility and heating of building will lower energy consiumption in those sectors to around 1/3rd. heta pumps generate 3kWh heat out of 1 kWh electricity (or even better), electric cars consume 20kWh/km vs. 60kWh/100km of ICE cars
So much less wind power plants are needed than your simplifeid numbers suggest.
And we are not talking about onshore wind alone. We are heading to around 50% onshore wind, 30% photovoltaik, 30% offshore wind and 10% "rest". (sum is 120%, this is bacause of 20% losses for storage are not useable overproduction)
So for 600 TWh/a (electricity consumption in 2018) we would need maybe 300 TWh/a onshore wind.
At 14,000MWh per turbine this makes 22.000 onshore Wind turbines which is less the number of todays installed wind turbines in Germany (but larger ones)
For 1,500TWh anual electricity production (consumption depends mainly on usage of electric transport vs. synthetic fueal and how we heat our buildings) ca. 54,000 onshore wind turbines would be needed. That's around 2% of our area and you can use it to grow food or forest under those wind turbines, only a very small amount has to be the actual foundation plus maintainance pathways.
54,000 wind turbines with a average lifetime of 20 years would translate to 2,700 onshore wind turbines every year.
This can be done, it is not even a significant act.
If you stay at that technological Level of 4MW turbines and there is no improvement on wind energy for the future you can even reuse many components and installations like transformators or grid connection after those 20 years.
For photovoltaik eben the roof area alone would be sufficient.
You still get more energy from biomass than wind and solar.
Yes, if you include wood for heating houses and all those biomass to be consumed by our cars, that's correct.
For electricity production in 2018 see my numbers above. We now get more kWh from photovoltaik than from biomas. Wind is already the 2nd largest source of electricity generation in Germany.
There is still a long way to go. 90% RE on primary energy consumption by 2050 (incl. planes and ships and all industry processes) would be a great success imho, even 80% sounds good to me.