Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

General Discussion about electric vehicles.
Cephalotus   10 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Cephalotus » Jan 17 2019 3:14pm

sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 17 2019 3:08pm
12 MW GE turbine.
.
https://www.ge.com/renewableenergy/wind ... re-turbine
.
Even better.

Did you also read this?:

The Haliade-X 12 MW also features a 63% capacity factor

sendler2112   100 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by sendler2112 » Jan 17 2019 3:17pm

Cephalotus wrote:
Jan 17 2019 3:12pm
Oil will not "leave" us in the coming decades. If we are not able to keep 50% of the already discovered oil resources in the ground and most of the coal, we are frocked anyway. Our limit is not the amount of fossil fuels available, but the amount of CO2 the atmosphere and seas will absorb and the results of that.
Economy. energy, population, are correlated nearly 1:1:1. And population is predicted to increase a further 30% before it can begin going back down. We have only 20-30 years of affordable oil left. It will leave us before we are ready to leave it.

Ohbse   10 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Ohbse » Jan 17 2019 3:53pm

sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 17 2019 3:17pm
Economy. energy, population, are correlated nearly 1:1:1. And population is predicted to increase a further 30% before it can begin going back down. We have only 20-30 years of affordable oil left. It will leave us before we are ready to leave it.
Except that's not true, as covered in some detail earlier in this thread, the population of Germany increased by a small margin, their economy grew very appreciably - yet their total energy consumption fell over the same period. It doesn't HAVE to be a 1:1:1 ratio, it just has in the past because it was cheap, dirty and nobody gave a shit. Policy change can result in efficient sustainable growth without burning more muck out of the ground. It might be less than PEAK POSSIBLE growth, but in the long term view that is far better.

We won't run out of oil - we have enough to drown us all. It *shouldn't* be affordable if it leads to societal level destruction. By making it less affordable, it drives innovation and investment in alternatives that won't kill your grandchildren.

Cephalotus   10 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Cephalotus » Jan 17 2019 4:20pm

sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 17 2019 3:17pm

Economy. energy, population, are correlated nearly 1:1:1. And population is predicted to increase a further 30% before it can begin going back down. We have only 20-30 years of affordable oil left. It will leave us before we are ready to leave it.
Oil consumption is already falling in countries like UK, France, Germany....
chart1547759945955.jpg
chart1547759945955.jpg (60.68 KiB) Viewed 750 times
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/German ... nsumption/

And this is before electric mobility started to enter the mass market, which will happen in just a few years.

I predict that oil consumption in Germany will be at least 20% lower than today by the year 2030.

Ianhill   1 MW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Ianhill » Jan 17 2019 4:30pm

Cepalotus
There's so much waste money in Wales for a country with such little wealth it's a crime, Anglesey has been fighting for a replacement nuclear plant for years now and there was alot of investment in a tidal Lagon in Swansea.

From where I live on a clear day I can see out to Hinckley point across the channel along with hundreds of turbines and where the Lagon would have been placed but the only investment we have visable is a plaque on a bench in the middle of no where and our government has wasted millions tax payers money designing an area that will never be built.

This brexit is bollocks and is bring our country to it's needs but I do feel there's a positive out look on humans future it's the only way to enjoy life and not constantly walk around linking for the negativity in everything I see as it's easy enough to do.

sendler2112   100 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by sendler2112 » Jan 17 2019 5:03pm

Cephalotus wrote:
Jan 17 2019 4:20pm
Oil consumption is already falling in countries like UK, France, Germany....

chart1547759945955.jpg

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/German ... nsumption/

And this is before electric mobility started to enter the mass market, which will happen in just a few years.

I predict that oil consumption in Germany will be at least 20% lower than today by the year 2030.
This is the situation we must fight more aggressively for worldwide. If we can force oil demand down with replacement technology and smaller societal footprints, at least as fast as production costs rise, the pricing will stay at a level that the economy can afford without precipitating the next great depression. Which will be vastly more severe than the previous one of the 1930's due to globalization. We have 20-30 years to essentially replace it entirely. The most effective mechanisms will be social change from an internet of all things and a sharing economy resulting in vastly reduced material throughput.

sendler2112   100 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by sendler2112 » Jan 17 2019 5:37pm

And electrified heavy rail replacing diesel rail, cross country trucking and air freight.

billvon   100 MW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by billvon » Jan 17 2019 5:45pm

sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 17 2019 5:37pm
And electrified heavy rail replacing diesel rail, cross country trucking and air freight.
Or electrified trucking using catenaries. That allows the US to continue their love affair with road-based transport and solves the last-mile problem at the same time.
--bill von

Hillhater   100 GW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Jan 17 2019 9:57pm

Ianhill wrote:
Jan 17 2019 9:10am
, .......that's where oil and fossils have been almost priceless to the point of our own climates destruction....
...climate destruction ?...
What indicators of this climate destruction do you have ?
Last i heard, the planet was getting greener, and the population increasing ! (too much).
Hardly indicators of climate destruction.
You need to separate fact from belief .
...(Belief in ficticous information you appear to accept)
This forum owes its existence to Justin of ebikes.ca

cricketo   1 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by cricketo » Jan 18 2019 12:07am

Ohbse wrote:
Jan 17 2019 3:53pm

Except that's not true, as covered in some detail earlier in this thread, the population of Germany increased by a small margin, their economy grew very appreciably - yet their total energy consumption fell over the same period. It doesn't HAVE to be a 1:1:1 ratio, it just has in the past because it was cheap, dirty and nobody gave a shit. Policy change can result in efficient sustainable growth without burning more muck out of the ground. It might be less than PEAK POSSIBLE growth, but in the long term view that is far better.

We won't run out of oil - we have enough to drown us all. It *shouldn't* be affordable if it leads to societal level destruction. By making it less affordable, it drives innovation and investment in alternatives that won't kill your grandchildren.
:bigthumb:

cricketo   1 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by cricketo » Jan 18 2019 12:10am

Hillhater wrote:
Jan 17 2019 9:57pm
...climate destruction ?...
What indicators of this climate destruction do you have ?
Last i heard, the planet was getting greener, and the population increasing ! (too much).
Hardly indicators of climate destruction.
You need to separate fact from belief .
...(Belief in ficticous information you appear to accept)
You always have the best jokes here. Whoever wrote that script book should be nominated for something.

Hillhater   100 GW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Hillhater » Jan 18 2019 1:56am

Cephalotus wrote:
Jan 17 2019 3:14pm

The Haliade-X 12 MW also features a 63% capacity factor
You do realise that is a THEORETICAL gross capacity factor. ?
Its not an actual monitored result....its just sales patter exaggeration !
..and they never disclose the internal power consumption or NET output under controlled tests.
This forum owes its existence to Justin of ebikes.ca

Ianhill   1 MW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by Ianhill » Jan 18 2019 9:59am

Hillhater wrote:
Jan 17 2019 9:57pm
Ianhill wrote:
Jan 17 2019 9:10am
, .......that's where oil and fossils have been almost priceless to the point of our own climates destruction....
...climate destruction ?...
What indicators of this climate destruction do you have ?
Last i heard, the planet was getting greener, and the population increasing ! (too much).
Hardly indicators of climate destruction.
You need to separate fact from belief .
...(Belief in ficticous information you appear to accept)
Climate destruction is blowing a hole in the ozone layer, it's nuclear waste leaching into our environment, it's uncontrollable levels of particulate matter in our atmosphere leading to more chest complaints and do cancers seem to be under control ? it's not always about CARBON its just plane ignorant if you choose to see our existence as none damaging do you work for DuPont?

cricketo   1 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by cricketo » Jan 18 2019 10:58am

Ianhill wrote:
Jan 18 2019 9:59am
do you work for DuPont?
I suspect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Research_Agency on behalf of ExxonMobil or similar :mrgreen:

sendler2112   100 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by sendler2112 » Jan 18 2019 11:12am

Ok. So. I don't want to keep being contrary. But I am a seeker of truth and have a hard time letting incomplete and biased statements go. So it is important to point out that human wellbeing has improved in every way many times over in the last hundred years. The environment not so much. But this newfound technology and wealth applied with our evolutionary neurochemical decision algorithms has enabled us to foolishly (primally) overshoot the carrying capacity of our resources. So it is time for some new concepts on how best to proceed.

cricketo   1 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by cricketo » Jan 18 2019 11:24am

sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 18 2019 11:12am
evolutionary neurochemical decision algorithms
What is that ?

cricketo   1 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by cricketo » Jan 18 2019 11:32am

Also here is a good snippet :
In a recent study, research participants who identified as Republican were more than twice as likely to affirm a plausible scientific prediction (namely that, ‘Global temperatures will rise 3.2 degrees in the 21st century’) when it was paired with a free market solution to avoid it than when it was paired with a policy solution involving taxes and regulation (Campbell and Kay 2014). This evidence suggests that climate change deniers don’t always become deniers because they reject the science behind climate change; rather, some may well become deniers because they dislike the proposed solutions—generally regulation or taxes. For such individuals, their dislike of proposed solutions to the problem appears to color their view on whether or not the science regarding the underlying issue is reliable.[5]
https://kiej.georgetown.edu/dont-feed-t ... denialism/

sendler2112   100 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by sendler2112 » Jan 18 2019 11:39am

cricketo wrote:
Jan 18 2019 11:24am
sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 18 2019 11:12am
evolutionary neurochemical decision algorithms
What is that ?
This is one of the things I keep trying to help everyone learn about but very few can be bothered to even sit back and view a video lecture for an hour. One more time. Please. If anyone wants to discuss forward thinking topics, please view the Nate Hagens lecture. And keep in mind that these are just 20 seconds each on 200 pages from his upcoming 1200 page books.
.
https://youtu.be/YUSpsT6Oqrg
.

cricketo   1 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by cricketo » Jan 18 2019 12:10pm

sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 18 2019 11:39am
This is one of the things I keep trying to help everyone learn about
So perhaps you could give your free-form definition of the phrase you used. Looks like a word salad otherwise.

sendler2112   100 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by sendler2112 » Jan 18 2019 12:39pm

cricketo wrote:
Jan 18 2019 12:10pm
sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 18 2019 11:39am
This is one of the things I keep trying to help everyone learn about
So perhaps you could give your free-form definition of the phrase you used. Looks like a word salad otherwise.
It will save me a couple pages of typing if you all would just watch the lecture. This is essential information that is unbeknownst to most people.
.
https://youtu.be/YUSpsT6Oqrg
.
I will be happy to discuss the material with anyone that makes an attempt by watching this.

cricketo   1 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by cricketo » Jan 18 2019 12:53pm

sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 18 2019 12:39pm
This is essential information that is unbeknownst to most people.
LOL

User avatar
TheBeastie   1 MW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by TheBeastie » Jan 19 2019 4:13am

sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 18 2019 11:39am
cricketo wrote:
Jan 18 2019 11:24am
sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 18 2019 11:12am
evolutionary neurochemical decision algorithms
What is that ?
This is one of the things I keep trying to help everyone learn about but very few can be bothered to even sit back and view a video lecture for an hour. One more time. Please. If anyone wants to discuss forward thinking topics, please view the Nate Hagens lecture. And keep in mind that these are just 20 seconds each on 200 pages from his upcoming 1200 page books.
.
https://youtu.be/YUSpsT6Oqrg
.
Yes, Twitter has given me a special window and consolidation/amalgamation of the most typical active mind on the internet in general. Politics only people, supporting their political tribe.
There is an incredible amount of people out there, where the "the argument" or "simply the TRUTH" simply DOES NOT MATTER. These people are COMPLETELY inspired/controlled by the political power part of the situation to a level that I think a higher intelligence mind would see as completely insane.

I realized this when using Twitter, because at least the web-client of Twitter shows you detailed stats of how people interact on the tweet, it shows you total "link clicks" per Tweet, if your tweet had a URL inside of it.
I found I could argue with some people on twitter for days, but I couldn't get them to click on any links, no matter what they were, how many tweets back and forth, or how many links there were, the truth simply does not matter to them, no matter how simple or complex the argument it was. This is tribalism, tribalism isn't in anyway about seeking facts.

I can't stress it enough, what I find truly interesting was that most people, on a level I simply couldn't imagine, refuse to click on links and would MUCH prefer to argue with you, simply forever!

I been testing with this logic for over a year now and for most people, its a lot of people couldn't give a shit about facts, its about everything else you could possibly imagine. Most people on twitter are charged up by politics only and everything is a tribal war rather than anything to do with fact-finding or logic.
Ideally, I think tribalism in this modern world, is part of low intelligence mindset. But we all have it to some degree and in different ways.
It's just like this video on tribalism over logic, this video is geared to insult republican supporters as far as I can tell but please look at it in a generic sense.
I simply love this video, in its generic message form! https://youtu.be/S74C-XF9kYY

Scott Adams I think provides incredibly good rationality on anything, but overall because he tries to ask questions and tries to simply answer them at the same time, with rationality, he has been accused of being a right-wing nazi, or things of that nature. Remember, he predicted Trump would win the US election back in 2015 https://blog.dilbert.com/2015/10/23/the ... de-part-1/

Here he goes over his findings of what he found going over climate change data and how scientists "moderate" the data, but his findings shocked him in this video. Until this video he was and if you watch his more recent climate change videos still is a general climate change believer.
https://youtu.be/DX2MOlAD9jM?t=658

I think as the internet "takes over" the media, the world will accelerate into better-refined views, but we are just beginning in this area.
I think any kind of "spectrum privileged" broadcast/cable/satellite media is backwards and holding us back and when IP-streaming only media takes over traditional TV, we will have generally much better-informed people. But only if the internet and censorship is left unrestricted and in the domains of "freedom of speech". I think the Freedom of Speech "war" on the internet will be the most important thing of the next few decades, because traditional elites in this world giving up power and generally finding the truth, can be one of the most infuriating things people can deal with.

I believe in freedom of speech so much that I believe what is called "fake news" like Alex Jones should be fully allowed, because over time, this type of media will go down the insinkerator as better quality internet media and the fight for truthful media will accelerate, leaving "fake news" in the dust. But this will only happen if free and open media on the internet is left to grow naturally.
Alex Jones media is generally incredibly non-educational and generally unhelpful to anyone, but ultimately the elites hated it so much they got it deplatformed. But competition has to start somewhere, and unbelievably, Alex Jones based on the viewership estimations was a base of competition for convenient access media and opinion, at least for the USA.
Ideally, people should be watching a wide range of different youtube channels for different opinions in replacement of traditional broadcast media like CNN or FoxNews which are both opinionated talk news, but maybe folks having to merely click on anything other than a single video stream is too much work.
I think if there was anything people should mindlessly and relentlessly protest for, its the end of traditional broadcast media and having it replaced with open unrestricted IP-streaming media.

People are dumb, and no one's coming to save us.
I think the western world has been merely lucky to a certain degree so far, and most people just assume things will magically just work them selfs out for the better. I completely disagree.
Half of my background is from eastern European area that was a victim of the Red Holocaust.
One of the smaller countries in eastern Europe that was taken over by the Soviet empire had about half of its entire population wiped out over a roughly 25 year period. Probably for little other reason other than for the Soviet empire to have long-term "more convenient" access to Kaliningrad https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpXkBCiW8QA
This was while the western world was enjoying new technology/TV and general social living advancements, but while in another part of the world, more people were dying than the original WW2 Holocaust.
No one came to save them, ever.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_kill ... st_regimes
The main argued reason why the Red Holocaust is not the prefered and more frequently referenced in traditional mainstream media is merely that it happened over a longer time period that the WW2 Holocaust, and didn't have photographic pictures like gas chambers, this simply makes it a harder/less easily absorbable piece of information to reference in general.
But realistically, considering the huge death toll numbers, there is plenty of room for what some might call "conspiracy theories" on why the Red Holocaust isn't by far the most frequently cited atrocity of our modern times.

The famous professor Jordan Peterson is great on the topic of the Red Holocaust and socialism in general because he also uses it as an example of the insanity of the world and how little people know about the world in general.
The first one is generally the best one to watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXgZAdaMtS8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lTGu35BpZs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0iL0ixoZYo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4R-tc1AtnjU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTwiEGoaAI4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl-JYD7Ss8A
This appears to be a preferred talk topic of Jordan Peterson https://www.youtube.com/results?search_ ... ism+deaths
There is one Jordan Peterson video I saw on the topic that was great but I can't find it.
This one from another person, expert historian professor Stephen Kotkin is just as good, actually its probably the best of them all https://youtu.be/jhi2icRXbHo
sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 15 2019 11:45am
Re: the Yellow Vest movement. "it’s not the gas tax that’s the problem. It’s inequality that’s the problem." https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019 ... ransition/
This is a good article, and this is why I find the Yellow Vests so interesting, its proof that a large number of French people have royally locked onto "Economic Supply & Demand Law".
This is a law that most of the western world no matter what, do not understand the significance of. So many people in Australia like the USA brutally cheer for more immigration while complaining about low wages in their jobs. Supply and demand law DIRECTLY flows into lower paid wages when there is there is more "labour/worker supply" fighting for those jobs.

It's the same with the cost of housing, there is limited land and having more people come in from all over the world to live in the same spot drastically pushes up the cost of housing in that area. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqeRnxSuLFI

The Yellow Vests have locked onto this issue on a remarkable level, it's on a level that I never thought possible, I suspect even that someone is making easily accessible/easily absorbable media is constantly reporting supply and demand law economics and fueling the Yellow Vests support, because it seems generally most people do not recognise its significance and simply prefer a completely blind fashion of complaining about the cost of living without understanding why, and even typically blame the opposite entities that they ever should.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... _yDOmNqu9c
^Turn on subtitles/Closed Captions in this video and watch this black French guy complain about "supply/demand law" as if he had just read my post about supply and demand law.
Most of the Yellow Vests talk about this on a remarkable level. Again this is why I find this protest movement so fascinating, and I suspect Macron doesn't even understand it himself, if he does understand the situation then he is a deliberately evil man.

You can watch the Yellow Vests protests live right now.. Apparently, in France, there is a broadcast media blackout of covering the protests. But I am surprised how little they show anything about it on local media as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHZ-14qGfE4


I made this meme about a year ago,it came to me when I saw the madness of the bottom pic of people wanting to wall off Trump at the same time being frustrated at lower wages, it seems to be to fit perfectly with the Yellow Vests.
xlarge.jpg
Supply & Demand Law
We are at "iPhone version 1.0" in robot automation but its significantly going to accelerate in the coming years and the elites who are basically abusing broadcast media to demand more immigration are going to have a harder time justifying it. Especially when they claim they care about the environment, as I was saying in this post https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewt ... 0#p1439160

https://youtu.be/5chk9Sory88


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LikxFZZO2sk
Last edited by TheBeastie on Feb 09 2019 1:54am, edited 3 times in total.
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sendler2112   100 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by sendler2112 » Jan 19 2019 10:28am

TheBeastie wrote:
Jan 19 2019 4:13am
I found I could argue with some people on twitter for days, but I couldn't get them to click on any links, no matter what they were, how many tweets back and forth, or how many links there were, the truth simply does not matter to them, no matter how simple or complex the argument it was. This is tribalism, tribalism isn't in anyway about seeking facts.

I can't stress it enough, what I find truly interesting was that most people, on a level I simply couldn't imagine, refuse to click on links and would MUCH prefer to argue with you, simply forever!
Tribalism is something Hagens talks about. It is ingrained in us physically/ neurochemically from a million years of evolution. Survival of the fittest and most successful at survival. Our brain chemistry evolved to reward us with various "feelings" of joy and accomplishment at finding a new fruit tree or termite mound to eat or raising a child. And defending them against an invading tribe (or alternative information). Humans and prehumans lived in small tribes of hunter gatherers and our brain chemistry evolved over a million years to be successful in that setting. It is only over the last 12,000 years that we learned agriculture so that we had enough societal surplus that some people didn't have to hunt or gather and could do other things. We became super social. But have lived this way only for a brief time compared to our evolutionary past. Now, we are living in the present with modern temptations that are intentionally designed to hijack the brain reward responses that kept us alive in the distant past. We have stone age brains but live in a modern world. Hagens spends 3 weeks on psycholgy at the front of his university course but does manage to squeeze in a glimps of it in the youtube lectures.
.
https://youtu.be/YUSpsT6Oqrg
.

cricketo   1 kW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by cricketo » Jan 19 2019 10:45am

Holy cow! :mrgreen:

billvon   100 MW

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Re: Wind and Solar vs Coal, Gasoline, Nuclear

Post by billvon » Jan 19 2019 11:13am

sendler2112 wrote:
Jan 17 2019 3:17pm
Economy. energy, population, are correlated nearly 1:1:1.
Energy USED can be sorta correlated in that way. Energy EXPENDED cannot be.
--bill von

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