jonescg wrote: ↑
Feb 08 2019 8:28am
It looks like behind the meter battery storage is exploding in Australia (metaphorically
In 2016: 6,500 batteries installed.
In 2017: 21,000
In 2018: 33,000 (all from the CEC's survey of PV in Australia)
In 2019: BNEF predicts a conservative 70,000 batteries will be connected to solar homes
Now in Australia, one in five households (about 2 million) has solar on the roof, and it's steadily growing. The average system size is 6 kW peak. The average battery install is about 10 kWh, but like solar PV the economics will become so favourable going bigger is better. The homes that installed batteries in 2017 will be doubling their packs by the end of the year because it's cheap enough to do so. They will effectively become off-grid homes, with industry consuming the bulk of grid power (if they don't already have solar on the roof).
Australia's households will be going solar+storage quicker than you can say "It's never going to work"
I suspect that the 70,000 installations for 2019, (4 times last years total) , is assuming SA goes ahead with their " virtual power plant" proposal, which includes 650MWh of subsidised houshold battery installations.
Auatralian solar is so heavily subsidised, anyone who can afford it would be foolish to ignor the possibility
A 6kW system with a 10 kWh battery can be a little as $15k installed.
But there are limits....
According to the last Census, Auatralia has 7.6 m housholds.
But 1.25 m of those are apartments/units which have little oportunity for RT solar.
Also, 30% of all households are rented...again with little prospect of RT benefits..
So we are left with approx 4.5m potential for RT installs
However there will be some (say 1m) , who simply cannot afford the costs ( cash or loan repayments)
And others whos property is simply not suitable ..trees, shading, roof configuration, etc
The end result is there are probably only about 3 m households in total that are likely to utilise RT solar, and 2m of those have already done so.!
And whilst its a good deal for those than can take advantage of the oportunity, you have to consider the effect overall on the population. ..Social consequences..
For every kWh of power not taken from the grid, the operating , maintenance, repair and distribution costs have to be redistributed between the remaining grid users, in the form of higher electricity costs.
Fundamentally that means that the wealthy (lucky) RT users are being subsidised by the unfortunate folks who cannot take advantage or afford RT solar !
How easily can you rest knowing that pensioners and low income families are helping to pay for your electricity ?