disrupting the oil market

We’re probably underestimating how quickly electric vehicles will disrupt the oil market

"Unpredictably rapid growth happens pretty predictably."

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:
http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/2/2/14467748/electric-vehicles-oil-market

Begins:

Just about every analyst agrees that the electric vehicle market is poised for rapid growth. But how rapid?

It’s not an idle question. The rate of EV growth will have huge implications for oil markets, auto markets, and electric utilities. Yet it is maddeningly difficult to predict the future; forecasts for the EV market are all over the place.

I don’t think the wide range of projections means that we’re blind here, though — I think we can make educated guesses. Specifically, I think history justifies optimism, the belief that the high-end projections (like those in a new study I discuss below) are closer to the truth.

Let’s walk through it.

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... and includes:

New study says oil and coal are F’d

Today saw the release of a new study from the Grantham Institute for Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative.
http://www.carbontracker.org/report...gy-solar-electric-vehicles-grantham-imperial/
It argues that solar photovoltaics (PV) and EVs together will kick fossil fuel’s ass, quickly.

“Falling costs of electric vehicle and solar technology,” they conclude, “could halt growth in global demand for oil and coal from 2020.” That would be a pretty big deal.

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Follow the money. Where is it all going?

to the 1%

New study says oil and coal are F’d
It argues that solar photovoltaics (PV) and EVs together will kick fossil fuel’s ass, quickly.

“Falling costs of electric vehicle and solar technology,” they conclude, “could halt growth in global demand for oil and coal from 2020.” That would be a pretty big deal. ....

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The reality of Solar replacing significant amounts of current energy generation is very hard to conceive with current technology
Many of these types of report ( subtly promoting the Solar industries ?) ..also seem to ignore what might be developed for cleaning up the coal/gas fuel combustion processes.
Whilst there are some existing possibilities, in the same timescale as solar development requires, its likely also many unrealized methods of enabling hydrocarbon fuels to be utilised cleanly and efficiently could be found.

then again, in the same 20- 30 year timescale, some other new energy source (Fusion ?) could render all this to a museum !

http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/03/news/economy/donald-trump-manufacturing-jobs/index.html

A major key to eliminating coal is putting the coal miners to work doing something else. Ya gotta build those solar panels SOMEWHERE, West Virginia is aching for something to do. But there's still much coal in them thar hills.

Our local south wales coal is no longer viable to burn as it's bitumen content is high and we have exhausted our surface lying anthracite so theres no cheap option as the industry's to access it is all gone but by no means is the coal all gone.
As a result our local coal burning plant has to run imported coal to operate it's a piss take on all fronts the plant is being forced into closure with no replacement but increased fines and tax revenues placed on coal to make it non profitable.
6 years ago my local forest got labeled with Dutch elms disease with no evidence other than neglect and to densely populated trees but that did not stop the logging of it all then the dodgy council and goverment moves placing hundreds of inefficent turbines on our most famous view points and left with the cost of rising prices and uncertainty to black outs.

Elon musk himself has estimated at 40 years till ice engines are reserved for the museums so I think we should push for high octane valve less engines running 48v bldc tech to replace the starter and alternator for a motor to make it a low assist hybrid if the engine was a 3 cylinder turbo with valveless tech then it would have just over 100mpg, and that's down to earth no whacky figures, to me that's the best way to tackle the crisis of oil.

Going energy cold turkey will be damaging and push human development backwards for most if it's pushed to fast to hard to soon. I'd say the time is right we have good tech and understanding for a slow role out like what's happening but the aggressiveness I've seen made from the experts in the marketing teams of both oil and electric suggests the biggest fight has yet to come as the market share starts to equal out it will release the wolf's.

It's mostly falling solar energy prices that is going to disrupt the oil market, not EV. Also, geopolitics.