All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years

LockH

LockH

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All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in twin ‘death spiral’ for big oil and big autos, says study that’s shocking the industries:
http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/n...os-says-study-that-shocking-the-industry#menu

Starts:
When a major lobbying group issues a statement replying to an academic study before that study even hits the media, you know it's major.

On Monday, the Diesel Technology Forum responded to an article in Nature with a statement that supported "improved real-world testing" of diesel emissions.

Those more stringent tests, the group's executive director Allen Schaeffer said, would "play a major role in helping to reduce nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions."

The group also, naturally, recommends adoption of newer diesel technology with improved exhaust-cleaning and aftertreatment systems.

The study it responded to, Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NOx emissions in 11 major vehicle markets, is a lengthy analysis that summarized the nitrogen oxide emissions of diesel vehicles from roughly 80 percent of the world's diesel vehicles in 11 markets.
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https://www.nature.com/articles/nat...DH2&tracking_referrer=www.greencarreports.com
 
I read that article. I think the article is better summarized as "the technology, and infrastructure, for the elimination of fossil-fueled vehicles will be present within eight years." That makes for a far less sensationalistic article; but I suspect it will be more accurate.
 
Around here, you'd have to take that 4 door one ton pickup out of the guys cold dead hands. Good luck buddy, this is an open carry state.
 
^^ Hehe... Guessing retail price of fossil fuels to get more expensive. :wink:
 
Crazy to think I "may" see this in my lifetime. To think what my dad saw in 1933 to today is hard to imagine. Now it is changing "much" faster... :shock:
 
torker said:
Crazy to think I "may" see this in my lifetime. To think what my dad saw in 1933 to today is hard to imagine. Now it is changing "much" faster... :shock:
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Hehe... It's been a "build up". LOVE yer Dad who saw Watts Coming in 1933.
Cheers
L
 
Got to be wary of news websites these days they're coming out of just about any headline you can imagine to bring the clicks in.

The way big energy companies are crawling over each other to implement renewable energy systems it appears to be a deliberate act to then have an excuse to drive up the price of electricity to the point that electric cars are not as competitive as cheap as fossil fuel cars which is ultimately what the big energy companies want to do, that is, being stuck on fossil fuel cars forever, really seems like the media and the public are just playing right into the big energy companies hands like complete fools.
It's kind of funny and creepy to watch it unfold just like I have long predicted.
 
^^ Amusing... "ClickBait" article written by:
Ambrose Evans-PritchardInternational Business Editor of The Daily Telegraph (ED: UK). He has covered world politics and economics for 30 years, based in Europe, the US, and Latin America. He joined the Telegraph in 1991, serving as Washington correspondent and later Europe correspondent in Brussels.
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dogman dan said:
Around here, you'd have to take that 4 door one ton pickup out of the guys cold dead hands. Good luck buddy, this is an open carry state.
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If they bought a tank or two of the un-subsidized true cost of the fuel, while watching the Tesla trucks running around with acceleration and pulling power that makes them look like stinky rattling dinosaur relics, I bet the conversion happens faster than you may expect.

Even guys who drive big trucks aren't into poisoning their family and friends only to be slower and weaker and more costly as a result.
 
I can see half of all personal vehicles in the USA being full electric in eight years. But...18-wheelers on the long-haul routes? Cargo trains?...A few hybrid 18-wheelers, maybe (on the shorter routes?)...using SSB lithium and bio-diesel?

The military will never give up the common fuel (JP5?). Having two or three fuels is a logistical nightmare in a crisis. The JP family is pretty much kerosene. Fighter jets, cargo jets, helicopters, tanks, small ships, trucks, HUMMVEEs...they all run on JP. Kind of interesting how small ships in the Navy now use a turboshaft engine (a jet that drives a shaft, like a helicopter). I was told that a ships engine room can be "cold" with the crew standing on the pier, and they can be cutting water at full speed in 20 minutes.
 
I don't believe any of this.

Oil is extremely cheap right now and we have a huge glut and the third world is working on becoming 2nd world by taking advantage of all that cheap energy that we in the west are trying to out-regulate the usage of. But we still need cheap and high energy density batteries for transportation.

If we cut out the use of fossil fuels for transportation, we still need fossil fuels for so many things and will continue being hooked on it for a long time.

Everything about oil has changed in the last 10 years. We have gone for fighting wars over who gets to buy oil to who can produce it, to prevent prices from going too low, so that petro-socialist countries like Saudi Arabia can continue to survive.

One day we might have to go to war with India, China, Brazil, Africa, and other countries who have only recently became hooked because of their carbon emissions.

The oil situation is very weird these days, but it is not going away any time soon.
 
The average of heavy haulage trucks in the USA is 7-8 years. (here in Australia it is 14+ years !), and in most other countries in Europe its similar if not more. They are "economic life" driven factors.
There is no way that is going to change dramatically, if for no other reason than the economics of the change and also, there is no electric option currently available, and even if there were, and you started today, there is not enough manufacturing capacity to replace the fleets of millions of trucks in that time scale .
For cars, although there are a few EV options available, replacing the entire 250+ million vehicles on US roads is going to take some doing in 8 years (30+ million per year?) :roll:
 
Lol, yeah. Hitler built some amazing architecture and pulled off some amazing feats at a rapid pace using the extreme compulsion of the fascist state. I don't think 8 years of another amphetamine fueled dictator pooling literally every single resource could even pull off replacing all this fossil fuel stuff though in that time.

If it were possible, you'd have to use a lot of fossil fuel to pull off such a feat because we are still well hooked on the black tar. :lol:
 
Marine transport is a major user of fossil fuels..heavy, dirty, "bunker" oil, feeding very large 2 stroke diesel engines.
Finding a non fossil alternative for those will be a interesting challenge !
The bigger new container and bulk carriers use engines of 100,000+ hp (80,000kW) output that run for several days non stop between port stops.
Nuclear is about the only realistic way to power that size of vessel ( as with large Navy carriers) , but i dont see letting thousands of Nuclear reactors loose in the hands of untrained ships crew, happening easily ! :shock:
But on the other hand, the concept of a 400-500 MWh battery on a ship, defies imagination...and how to recharge quickly ???
...and then do all that for many thousands of ships in the next 8 years ... :lol:
 
:oops: ...i think i calculated that battery size wrong for the container ship ?
80,000 kW for 4 days is closer to 8000,000 kWh or 8 GWh of battery :shock:
At 250Wh per kg, that would be 30,000+ tonnes of battery :oops: :lol: :shock:
And an even bigger recharging problem !
 
Looking at the history of EVs in the late 1800s and early 1900s, it looks like we are going to repeat the same cycle in similar ways.

Its the exact same thing 100 years ago now when Lead-acid battery EVs owned the car market but as the industry grew it just couldn't keep up despite the industry having well-organized battery swap programs etc.
Electric cars owned it all and have the records for the first cars to break 100KMph/60mph https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Jamais_Contente

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicle#Golden_age

Considering the price of core Tesla cell metals this might be as cheap as it ever gets. You can't get any cheaper then 40,000 African kids digging up cobalt etc.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2016/01/amnesty-international-report-children-mine-cobalt-used-in-gadget-batteries/

Here is the chart of Cobalt which is crucial for decent performance and lifetime out of lithium cells, the Lithium metals chart looks pretty much exactly the same btw.
file.php


The things that are different this time around is peoples standards on whats acceptable for a "renewable" world, no one cares its African kids that help make it all possible as long as this "clean energy" is powered by the brute fear of increasing carbon dioxide levels makes it all OK.

Our latest mining technologies should propel us for a further amount of time along the line of metal based battery fuels this time around but I doubt it will kill oil which will remain cheap and plentiful for a long time, and who knows maybe folks will catch onto the idea that carbon dioxide helps plants grow and is in fact as "renewable" as it gets https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2qVNK6zFgE , while metals just like the lead-acid days of EVs past do nothing good at all in the long term for the environment https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/02/an-american-history-of-lead-poisoning/462576/

At least for our local governments they look at all the latest facebook renewable energy memes claims and believe it just as much as anyone. Such as claiming your going to be able to charge your near 1MWh (800KWh) Tesla semi truck from your home roof etc https://www.wired.com/2017/04/tesla-electric-truck/

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/nsw-government-to-sell-ausgrid-for-16bn-to-australian-consortium/news-story/241c15edc1442b9270f0bd324dcf294e
I think as long as we have sold our electricity grids to hedge funds and shut down our cheap coal mines so that its all locked in and based on oil imports which is where the heaviest money investment has been placed over the last decade then they got us right where they wanted us.

file.php
 
The congo is quite a hellhole to live in. Only there does digging for rare minerals by hand beat out other ways of making a living.

What's best for these people? i sure as hell don't know. Our extreme level of consumption in the west creates a lot of problems but also creates opportunities that wouldn't exist otherwise for the ultra poor. China built some amazing wealth and a huge middle class when we basically handed them the work we didn't want to do ( manufacturing ), but it took a while. I remember being shocked in the 1990's to learn that Chinese were being paid 10 cents an hour to make my clothes.

What's really more moral.. letting people in the Congo region go back to death by malnutrition, or continuing to employ them to do this shit work? or maybe a middle ground where we hand 'em a little bit of decent mining hardware and let them strip mine their region? or perhaps give up on the electric vehicle dream and stick with oil? or...

There is no clear cut decision here. But for the sake of the planet we live on, i'd say try to consume as little as possible. Buy a Model 3 instead of a 2 ton Model S. Hypermile your gas car if you can't afford an electric.. ride a bike.. don't go to walmart and waste your future wealth on things made in sweatshops that you'll just throw away a few months later.. etc.
 
perhaps give up on the electric vehicle dream and stick with oil?
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perhaps give up on the electric vehicle dream and stick with oil?

ACK!!!

Surely you jest Sir. One might figure is, the best humans can do is leave this planet a "better place" for future generations (dang animal bodies...)

(One of my ancestors helped start kids school - kindergarten - in Toronto... )

:)
 
Well, what's the best option? we are starting to see environmental problems with electric vehicles at a small scale already.

Building a fleet of more gasoline engines from aluminum, iron, rubber, and lubricants is pretty low impact... it's the fuel that's the problem.

With electrics, the fuel is not necessarily the dirty part, but batteries made with cobalt and nickel, plus solar panels made from cadmium = environmental nastiness once the scale of production begins to climb.

I would still take an electric vehicle over a gas vehicle any day because the powertrain is superior in every way. Not because i think i'm saving the planet by choosing a 4,000lb electric over a 3,000lb gas car.

Best thing to do would be to ride a 2 or 3 wheeled thing instead of a car tho. Consume less, waste less, and don't have a bazillion kids.
 
neptronix said:
Consume less, waste less, and don't have a bazillion kids.
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Where "bazillion" equals a number greater than one. We need to have fewer of us or everyone and everything will suffer.
 
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