What will it take to make ebikes, More mainstream ?

markz
you see that is people mentality,
popularity of ebikes would mean more demand for charging everywhere which for sure would result in busineses flipping breakers OFF on those outside plug ins.
Now Calgary is EV ebike heaven if it comes to free charging all over the place
example Home Depot , Rona ..
while you shop you charge.

My charge is big and heavy. I'm not going to be bringing it anywhere with me. hahaha

arthurtuxedo said:

Widespread cycling suffers from a chicken and egg problem: There aren't enough cyclists to dispel the myths, so negative attitudes about cycling persist, so proposals to expand bike infrastructure don't pass and when they do they are underfunded and designed by planners who don't bike. This discourages people from cycling and the negative loop starts over.

Click to expand...

One of the big myths is that Cycling is dangerous. One person dies in a car every day on NSW roads. If the media published it, we'd get numb, and nobody would be interested.

One cyclist dies every 2 months. Not only is it rarer, the commenters love to say "well they shouldn't be on the road anyway!" Which provokes angry debate, and gets clicks and ad revenue.

So everyone gets the false impression that cycling is more dangerous than it really is.

The government released an advertising campaign that said things like you are more likely to die from the pollution sitting in traffic, than from a collision riding a bike. And how every person who commuted to work by bike saved the government $22 a day, that could be spent on hospitals and education. It was just ridculed and ignored...

Such is the entrenched attitudes, that meant that even if electric bikes were free, they would not be ridden. The only thing I can think of that will change this, is if people simply could not afford to drive.

You have to also account for how many vehicles are on the roads and how many cyclists on riding.
Another way of doing it is, for the total distance of ALL users in one year, much harder to find out.

markz said:

You have to also account for how many vehicles are on the roads and how many cyclists on riding.
Another way of doing it is, for the total distance of ALL users in one year, much harder to find out.

Click to expand...

In 2014, bicycle deaths accounted for 2% of all traffic deaths. I seriously doubt that bicycles account for 2% of traffic miles. For the population in general, riding a bike is probably more dangerous per mile than driving.

wturber said:

markz said:

You have to also account for how many vehicles are on the roads and how many cyclists on riding.
Another way of doing it is, for the total distance of ALL users in one year, much harder to find out.

Click to expand...

In 2014, bicycle deaths accounted for 2% of all traffic deaths. I seriously doubt that bicycles account for 2% of traffic miles. For the population in general, riding a bike is probably more dangerous per mile than driving.

Click to expand...

The data show that walking on sidewalks is the worst of the three. But to fixate on injury or mortality rates is to ignore the main cause. It's cars. Once we treat car driving like the moral and social crime it is, these other details will sort themselves out.

Chalo said:

The data show that walking on sidewalks is the worst of the three. But to fixate on injury or mortality rates is to ignore the main cause. It's cars. Once we treat car driving like the moral and social crime it is, these other details will sort themselves out.

Click to expand...

Yes. Pedestrians in many cities like Phoenix are nearly invisible to drivers of automobiles. And to make matters worse, pedestrians frequently seem to be unaware of this.

With international fatality rates hovering in the range of 1 death per every 100 million miles driven - a rate about 20 times less than what it was when automobiles first began to be adopted as common means of transportation - it is more than unlikely that people will accept it as a moral or social crime.

http://www.who.int/gho/road_safety/mortality/en/

1,250,000 dead per year. Countless maimed and disabled. You and the rest of the drivers can be willfully oblivious to it, but it's nonetheless a moral and social crime.

We'll start to see the scale of it once there are robot cars that don't do it.

wturber said:

Pedestrians in many cities like Phoenix are nearly invisible to drivers of automobiles. And to make matters worse, pedestrians frequently seem to be unaware of this.

Click to expand...

Especially when they just step off the sidewalks into traffic without even looking. :/

(not at crosswalks, intersections, etc--just in the middle of a busy street--sometimes the traffic they get hit by (or narrowly avoided by) is automotive, sometimes it's bicycles--there are places I won't use the bike lanes because it's safer to be in the traffic lanes already "in the way" of cars, than to be where pedestrians are going to step off without warning in front of me, forcing me to dodge left *into traffic* without warning to avoid them).

How to get millions of ebikes sold:

An ebike needs to be a legal and reliable "bicycle"(!)

+

you need a bicycle culture in your country, that includes bicycle infrastructure.

There are millions(!) of Pedelecs in Germany sold at high prices with "250W" Motors and rather small batteries, because they just do their intended job as a much easier bicycle. Their job is NOT to be an electric motorcycle with pedals attached to it.

Worst ebike is the one that burns down your home, second worst is the ebike that keeps you stranded while trying to get to work.

Market data for Germany in 2016: http://www.ziv-zweirad.de/fileadmin/redakteure/Downloads/Marktdaten/PK_2017-ZIV_Praesentation_7.03.2017_oT1.pdf
(in German)

They sold 600.000 pedelec in 2016 that run only 25km/h, but only 6.000 speed pedelec that run up to 45km/h.

So it is neither motor power nor price to get high numbers. At least in Europe.

In China the situation is different. There the bicycle is the poor mans vehicle, so the ebike needs to ba something you do not need to pedal for image reasons.

Cephalotus said:

They sold 600.000 pedelec in 2016 that run only 25km/h, but only 6.000 speed pedelec that run up to 45km/h.

So it is neither motor power nor price to get high numbers. At least in Europe.

Click to expand...

Well, of course. If the law forbids more powerful ebikes on the road, then they will obviously sell in lower numbers. That doesn't mean that higher powered bikes, if made legal, wouldn't increase the adoption rate.

I live in the Phoenix metro area near Scottsdale. While bike culture is not huge here, there are a fairly large number of bike paths in the area. This helps make bike commuting practical. My commute to work is 16 miles with hills. It also gets to over 100 degrees F in the summer regularly here. A 250 watt motor is unlikely to give me the assist in speed or hill flattening ability or enough relief on a hot day to be enough help make commuting in this kind of situation practical. A 750-1500 watt motor and the ability to cruise at 25+ mph allows me to cover the distance in 45-50 minutes and at relatively low effort on a hot day. While still twice the time as driving, a bike commute is much more practical with that amount of power. In cities and situations where many people have relatively long commutes like this and some bicycle infrastructure, higher powered ebikes should help attract more utilitarian use of ebikes.

I don't know the situation in Germany, but if many Germans have similarly long commutes, then the 250 watt limit is probably an impediment to adoption even though their adoption rate is already fairly high. I favor allowing higher power motors and speed limits of around 25mph or 40kmh (on level ground) for ebikes.

Speed Pedelec are legal in Germany. You have to buy ibsurnance for them but this is cheap at ca. 35 Euros per year.

My commute is rather short but I use my bike in any weather except heavy storms which are very rare. Germany has a lots of shit weather...
Two collegues use their ebikes for long distance. 28km and ca. 40km one way. One uses hus speed pedelec almost daily exept during winter the other s standard 25kmh Pedelec just 1 or 2 times a week.

100°F is rare here. I usually take a day off on those days and ride my speed pedelec to a nice lake 15km away...

I just watched Justin road trip across Canada again, its quite interesting. Justins work will help ebiking become mainstream, along with a bunch of other people like that Youtuber ElectricBikeReview (EBR), Sondors "BSO", Luna, Endless Sphere Forum, that other forum in the UK called Pedelecs, Facebook groups, Meetup groups, trade shows, and just the fact people see more and more electric bicycles around, it gets them thinking about it. With people getting older and older its cool they have a choice of a low-cost transportation option, whether it be a electric trike, electric bike, a custom mobility scooter.

This is a commercial "fast pedelec" based on cheap Chinese stuff at around 2000 Euro:

https://www.ebike-bausatz.eu/496443/herren-trekking-s-pedelec-28-45kmh-rh52-akku-48v-ladegeraet-inkl-betriebserlaubnis--motor-akkuvariante-vorfuehrbike-mit-standartmotor-bis-45kmh-mit-132ah-akku





It runs 45km/h (or illegally 60km/h) on throttle alone, which is uncommon in Germany and because of that you need to wear a moped helmet.

Problem is, that you get cheap stuff at that cheap price. Maybe the Chinese motor and battery are fine, but the bike itself isn't imho. Neither the fork, nor the light nor the brakes are adequate, I'm not sure about other components like frame or rims...
If you want to ride 45km/h+ on a bicycle yoo need best quality tires, rims, brakes, light, etc...

A bike of this type was recently involved in an accident, the rider is fighting with death...

I don't know if better brakes or lights could have avoided that accident (car didn't see it or didn't expect that speed when turning left), but they wouldn't have hurt...

markz said:

You have to also account for how many vehicles are on the roads and how many cyclists on riding.
Another way of doing it is, for the total distance of ALL users in one year, much harder to find out.

Click to expand...

I agree with the sentiment, but total miles would be highly misleading in favor of making cars seem safe. The vast majority of miles in a trip for a car commuter are on the highway, a controlled environment where accidents are rare. It’s on city streets where most of the accidents happen. To compare apples to apples, you’d have to compare either accidents per hour of operation, per mile excluding highways, or compare drivers and cyclists making long trips and include the miles that the cyclist spends sitting on a train or bus.

IIRC, in North America that still makes cycling somewhat more dangerous than driving, but not by much. The health benefits outweigh the increased risk many times over and in cities with proper bike infrastructure like Amsterdam and Copenhagen, cycling is far less dangerous than driving.

arthurtuxedo said:

markz said:

IIRC, in North America that still makes cycling somewhat more dangerous than driving, but not by much. The health benefits outweigh the increased risk many times over and in cities with proper bike infrastructure like Amsterdam and Copenhagen, cycling is far less dangerous than driving.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Right. Because the most dangerous thing for cyclists is automobiles.

Hehe... Tried searching ES AND this thread for ANY mention of this article from July, 2015?

E-bikes in the Mainstream: Reviewing a Decade of Research:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441647.2015.1069907?journalCode=ttrv20&

Abstract

Electric bicycles (e-bikes) represent one of the fastest growing segments of the transport market. Over 31 million e-bikes were sold in 2012. Research has followed this growth and this paper provides a synthesis of the most pertinent themes emerging over the past on the burgeoning topic of e-bikes. The focus is transport rather than recreational e-bike research, as well as the most critical research gaps requiring attention. China leads the world in e-bike sales, followed by the Netherlands and Germany. E-bikes can maintain speed with less effort. E-bikes are found to increase bicycle usage. E-bikes have the potential to displace conventional motorised (internal combustion) modes, but there are open questions about their role in displacing traditional bicycles. E-bikes have been shown to provide health benefits and an order of magnitude less carbon dioxide than a car travelling the same distance. Safety issues have emerged as a policy issue in several jurisdictions and e-bike numbers are now approaching levels in which adequate safety data are able to be collected. Research on e-bikes is still in its infancy. As e-bike usage continues to grow, so too will the need for further research, in order to provide the necessary data to inform policy-makers and industry.

Click to expand...

"Research on e-bikes is still in its infancy. As e-bike usage continues to grow, so too will the need for further research, in order to provide the necessary data to inform policy-makers and industry."

In case watts BLOODY OBVIOUS isn't "bloody obvious"... for personal use in urban travels aka "traffic". :wink:

I think uber and the ebike they are coming out with will

Right demographic mindset, bike-friendly transportation planning, cost, distance to intended location, cost, ROI, cool-factor, safety concerns, cost, in no particular order.

Cars are a constant threat...have you ever taken the time to look at drivers to see how many of them are actively on their phones ALL THE TIME? Literally watching YouTube, reading news, texting, Instagram, Twitter, you name it. I've had three accidents personally in the past year and a half since using Pikachu all the time, two because they pulled out of a cross street not anticipating my speed correctly, and one who cut across two lanes of traffic when he overshot the entry into a parking lot, again not anticipating my speed, and a TON of close calls with distracted drivers not noticing me despite a 290 lumen rear LED that flashes red/blue like cop lights, and a flashing 1200 lumen front flood. I now wear a helmet cam at all times in case of insurance involvement when it no doubt happens again. :x

I talked with an engineer from Intel about an AI project they're working on for object identification and long distance preemptive collision warning on motorcycles where it charts the trajectory of other objects from long distances in relation to the user...sounds like it could be applied to ebikes as early-warning for cars slowly drifting right too much (smartphone/distracted driver case) that would be far more effective than a mirror. I'm trying to convince him to let me be a guinea pig.

GIGATT said:

I think uber and the ebike they are coming out with will

Click to expand...

^^ Hehe... Watt HE said. MY "target market" is rentals to "tourists". Sorta like Uber et al in "bike-share", but "on steroids". Like, the "tourist market" has "money to burn" plus local ebike stores tell me their Number One Selling Tool" is "Would you like to try a ride?". So I'm thinking tourists... Having tried the Ebike Syndrome while on vacation, watt're they gonna buy when back home? :wink:

We shall see what Uber does next week.

Do you rent ebikes?

LockH said:

GIGATT said:

I think uber and the ebike they are coming out with will

Click to expand...

^^ Hehe... Watt HE said. MY "target market" is rentals to "tourists". Sorta like Uber et al in "bike-share", but "on steroids". Like, the "tourist market" has "money to burn" plus local ebike stores tell me their Number One Selling Tool" is "Would you like to try a ride?". So I'm thinking tourists... Having tried the Ebike Syndrome while on vacation, watt're they gonna buy when back home? :wink:

Click to expand...

Here in the ATL there are a few bike shops that now rent low-power (250-350W) PAS only eBikes. Obviously, they wouldn't want to rent out higher power bikes with throttles to people who have no experience with that. IIRC, the legal limit in USA is 750W nominal and top speed of 28 mph assisted. For the bike-rental market, that is a frock-ton of power and speed for someone who's never touched an eBike before and who may not have ridden any sort of bike for several years. I watch the (non-electric) bike rental people riding on the trails/paths and on surface streets and I'm amazed they don't kill themselves and everyone around them. They have no concept of the rules (written or understood) and don't care about it because in a couple of hours they'll return their bikes, go home to the 'burbs, and not ride again for another year. As a business, you'd need to have a mandatory basic training and disclaimers/waivers out the wazoo to protect yourself from dumb people suing you if you wanted to get into the eBike rental business. I personally wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot, electrically grounded pole.

zro-1 said:

IIRC, the legal limit in USA is 750W nominal and top speed of 28 mph assisted.

Click to expand...

There's been lots of mistakes like the above statement made in various threads, with corrections in most of them, if you want to look around the forum. But in short:

There is no federal "legal limit" (other than what can be sold as an ebike, in the CPSC regulations). Federal "law" can't regulate stuff like transportation definitions (taht's up to the states).

The limits you list are just what some states have adopted. Most places it varies quite a bit.

Here in AZ there is presently no power limit for electrics (just CC limit for ICE), and you simply must operate the bike under 20MPH (so 19.999999999999999~ MPH max).

GIGATT said:

We shall see what Uber does next week.

Do you rent ebikes?

Click to expand...

Hehe... Not YET. HAVE convinced one local bike store owner to jump into this rental business. When last heard he had signed a five year contract to "man a spot"/ place in a local park. He's done Year One already, with staff manning a "low traffic spot". This year the Parks Dept. have agreed to let him move to a "higher traffic area" in the same park.

BUT, he's renting pedal-only bikes like he sells in his nearby store? So MY plan is to ship him bikes with assist. For him/his crew to rent "all summer long" (the contract is limited to six months each year)... and then for him to "kick back" some of his net profits. Hehe... The Lazy Mans way to earn incomes. Store owner and crew do all the work... I just get some small cheque each year just before Christmas... Sorta like buying stocks with a steady income. ...I suspect.

Based on all I know/have heard and read, the electrics will be their "top sellers" in his rental biz...

You'll notice that Rob, the store owner has almost zero electric bikes:
https://velotique.com/collections/bicycles

Given that I have about zero $$$ to buy any new ebikes... currently looking for one or more "investors" just to buy ("quality"/"brand name") ebikes and have them shipped to Rob for him to rent. (And for them to earn a healthy return on their "investment", obviously...)

... and the general idea is to get folks addicted to electric assist such that they start buying ebikes from his store. :wink:

His shop is located right at the edge of a more "affluent" neighbourhood featuring long bike paths.

... and "deep pockets". :lol:

Screw the middleman , rent them out yourself start with two twin bikes and a smile