Could Electric Bikes Be Killing Off America’s Car Addiction?

wturber · Mar 25, 2018

ScooterMan101 said:
What is killing off the America's past history of individual car ownership is ...

The overall trend is still increasing. Some sub-groups have a shifting downward trend, but that is offset by other groups that are trending up.

If you adjust for inflation, gas prices are about the same as they were when I graduated high school in 1977.

MadRhino · Mar 25, 2018

Yep. The use of cars, and miles traveled, are increasing very fast. That will probably be the cause for some radical change. We can consume with credit, but the earth resources can’t. Sooner or later, our way of life will crash.

markz · Mar 25, 2018

I love to drive, sometimes I just go out for a drive out in the country, other times a spontaneous drive out into the mountains. I've havent driven on a regular basis in a year or two now, I rent cars every now and then. And yes, I rented cars for no other reason then to drive out in the country with nothing to do.

The Roy Green show on Chorus radio was talking about driverless cars and how it could not only kill pedestrians but kill off the "owning a car" addiction or the pure pleasure of just driving. People buy Mustangs, Corvettes and other sporty models, like any 2 door for the pleasure of driving. Its another angle on this threads title. An interesting angle on autonomous vehicles is does the programmer decide if the car occupant lives or the pedestrian/child/stray dog.

LockH · Mar 25, 2018

ScooterMan101 said:
Where I live there is allot of countryside housing , so most of the young people I see that live out there wind up driving older , and junk type cars,
However most everyone who lives out in the countryside would not want to live in the crime infested city areas...

Hehe... I've lived in "crime infested city areas" for much of my life? ... and I blame LOUSY PARENTING... where school teachers get to try and repair the damages... Having been traveling and moving around all my life (12 different houses, 15 different schools before I moved out of my parents last house at 17y.o. ...), the "best" school I EVer went to was for one year in a boarding school in England (England, three years and three different schools...) Hehe... Arrived in England and said to be "talking like a `Merican"... then getting back to Canada and said to be "talking like a Brit".

High Trees School Monolith
http://www.wadhurst.demon.co.uk/high-trees/index.htm

Anyway... Point is only that were I "King" I would remove all kids from their parents until high school-age... give them all the same school uniforms to wear (mine was blue denim overalls... except a "proper" school uniform to wear on Sundays to church and monthly visits by parents...) This was not long after WW2... and the Brits were still big on not wasting stuff... learned how to bath in 3" of "not-too-cold" water.

We had our own gardens for growing vegetables.

Anyway. These daze... May seen like we're in the Century of mass consumption and waste. [sigh]

wturber · Mar 27, 2018

MadRhino said:
Yep. The use of cars, and miles traveled, are increasing very fast. That will probably be the cause for some radical change. We can consume with credit, but the earth resources can’t. Sooner or later, our way of life will crash.

Total U.S. gasoline consumption has (on average) stayed about the same over the last 20 years despite substantial increases in population. Per capita consumption is on a generally downward trend in the U.S. Besides, automobiles only account

There is so much that we don't know, but if we look at history, it seems unlikely that our "way of life" will "crash." Despite predictions of us running out of oil in the '70s, oil reserves have actually more than doubled since I graduated high school. What actually happens is that as a resource gets more expensive we use less and/or find other alternatives. Things are much more likely to shift than they are to crash.

billvon · Mar 27, 2018

wturber said:
Total U.S. gasoline consumption has (on average) stayed about the same over the last 20 years despite substantial increases in population. Per capita consumption is on a generally downward trend in the U.S.

Yep. The substantial increases in efficiency have largely counteracted the increase in miles driven.

There is so much that we don't know, but if we look at history, it seems unlikely that our "way of life" will "crash." Despite predictions of us running out of oil in the '70s, oil reserves have actually more than doubled since I graduated high school. What actually happens is that as a resource gets more expensive we use less and/or find other alternatives. Things are much more likely to shift than they are to crash.

Especially given the options (natural gas, EV, PHEV) that are becoming more and more common. As oil runs out, gas prices will increase, and people will buy cheaper/faster/simpler EV's.

wturber · Mar 27, 2018

MadRhino said:
Yep. The use of cars, and miles traveled, are increasing very fast.

In the U.S. miles traveled has plateaued over about the last decade. Prior to that it was on a steady increase, not an accelerating one. Miles traveled per capita is currently on a downward trend.

Worldwide we can expect and increase in total miles traveled. That's because per capita miles traveled tends to increase as wealth increases and worldwide wealth is on a general upward trend. Add to that the upward trend in worldwide population and increase in worldwide travel seems all but guaranteed.

MadRhino · Mar 27, 2018

wturber said:
MadRhino said:

Yep. The use of cars, and miles traveled, are increasing very fast.

Click to expand...

In the U.S. miles traveled has plateaued over about the last decade. Prior to that it was on a steady increase, not an accelerating one. Miles traveled per capita is currently on a downward trend.

Worldwide we can expect and increase in total miles traveled. That's because per capita miles traveled tends to increase as wealth increases and worldwide wealth is on a general upward trend. Add to that the upward trend in worldwide population and increase in worldwide travel seems all but guaranteed.

Yep. I was talking about the world. The use of cars is spreading in countries that are very populated. Our way of life, that is abusing resources to the point of making them pay by our grand children, will crash. Those who believe it can last forever, are dreaming.

billvon · Mar 27, 2018

MadRhino said:
Yep. I was talking about the world. The use of cars is spreading in countries that are very populated. Our way of life, that is abusing resources to the point of making them pay by our grand children, will crash. Those who believe it can last forever, are dreaming.

I think it will change, not "crash." The combination of a mostly free, but regulated, market, alternatives to oil and advancements in technology will drive people to alternatives before we reach a hard stop due to resource depletion.

MadRhino · Mar 27, 2018

Well, the abuse of resources that personnal cars are, is not only about energy. It is about the mass and variety of materials that are required to make them, and the mass of waste produced by their maintenance and disposal.

An electric car is not much greener than a combustion car. Unless it is half the weight and size, it is not a significative improvement.

John and Cecil · Mar 27, 2018

Until people find happiness with what they need and not from what they want this problem (and all the others) are not going to go away.

wturber · Mar 27, 2018

MadRhino said:
Yep. I was talking about the world. The use of cars is spreading in countries that are very populated. Our way of life, that is abusing resources to the point of making them pay by our grand children, will crash. Those who believe it can last forever, are dreaming.

Yes. Things will change more rapidly as the world becomes more wealthy. That's for sure. But these things are so far out that the notion that there will be a "crash" is super speculative. Though I guess that depends on what exactly you mean by "crash". Change? Of course. Catastrophe? Not likely IMO.

wturber · Mar 27, 2018

John and Cecil said:
Until people find happiness with what they need and not from what they want this problem (and all the others) are not going to go away.

Need ... want. You say tomato I say toemauto.

We will always have problems of this nature since the nature of mankind will not change. You can make subtle shifts in learned behaviors for sure. You can teach things up to a point. But the basic nature that drives most behavior will be unchanged and that will be the major driving force.

John and Cecil · Mar 28, 2018

I wonder how much of the issue is from our nature and how much is from our teachings. I think the problem is there is a huge disconnect between humans and their hearts (inner wisdom). A good example would be how men are taught (brainwashed) early on that they should never cry, but crying is natural and it heals us from suffering. If you don't emotionally process life's situations they will remain with you forever. It is ironic because many men do not cry and they do so out of fear of being perceived as being weak, but it is actually the fear of crying that makes them weak.

You are probably correct though that this will not change. I live in Socal at the moment and this place is probably the capital of the human head/heart disconnect. There is a 75% divorce rate here, it is probably among the highest in the world. Katy Perry and the Beach Boys wish they all could be California girls, but if that were to actually happen I think the world would die from selfishness and greed.

LockH · Mar 28, 2018

Nothing like global climate change to change the way folks travel:
https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1125

:wink:

billvon · Mar 28, 2018

MadRhino said:
An electric car is not much greener than a combustion car. Unless it is half the weight and size, it is not a significative improvement.

I think it's a pretty significant improvement in terms of energy and resource usage, but it's not a complete solution - just another step along the path to "better."

wturber · Mar 28, 2018

John and Cecil said:
<snip> There is a 75% divorce rate here, it is probably among the highest in the world. Katy Perry and the Beach Boys wish they all could be California girls, but if that were to actually happen I think the world would die from selfishness and greed.

And who is to say that long term marriage is generally good? Is that fundamentally so, or is it mostly a social construct that we are taught to accept? <shrug>

I try to look at things that persist through history as a way to figure out those things that don't (and won't) change significantly. It seems obvious to me that we become accommodated to our situations. That reality will tend to blind us to understanding our situation and will affect those things that we desire. In short, it will always be a struggle for a human bean to be objective - and many of us don't even try very hard. :^)

MadRhino · Mar 28, 2018

wturber said:
John and Cecil said:

<snip> There is a 75% divorce rate here, it is probably among the highest in the world.

Click to expand...

And who is to say that long term marriage is generally good?

Well, I am at 100% divorce, with 3 ex wives and 7 kids.

All my ex wives and kids are successful and happy, so for me divorces had been good. Expansive, but good. I would be happy to do it again, if I was still young enough.

John in CR · Mar 28, 2018

MadRhino said:
Cagers and riders are mostly different animals.

Hens would not fly to save their lives.

I'm glad this animal changed its spots. I loved driving for over 30 years until the nonsensical traffic congestion where I lived 10 years ago made me start checking my watch to see if it was a good time to leave in the car, because I hated time wasting traffic so much. While waiting in line several cycles at traffic light a bike whizzed by and the guy wasn't pedaling. As soon as I got home I started researching electric bikes online. I built a horrible emoto and a bit better chain driven ebike and appreciated the potential. Then 10 years ago today I got my first hubmotor, a Grubee 750W DD hubby, and haven't looked back. I hate driving now...well not driving so much as wasting any amount of time stuck in traffic. Gas is expensive here, so I save at least $2k a year just in gas making my longest lasting hobby quite a profitable one even after spending nice chunks of change on ebike stuff.

MadRhino · Mar 28, 2018

John in CR said:
MadRhino said:

Cagers and riders are mostly different animals.

Hens would not fly to save their lives.

Click to expand...

I'm glad this animal changed its spots. I loved driving for over 30 years until the nonsensical traffic congestion where I lived 10 years ago...

You are one of the few, who gave up cars for ebikes. Most ebikers have a riding background. While it is an outstanding gain of time and troubles to switch from car to bike, most drivers wouln’t.

I always hated driving in town. I used to let my staff drive for work, and wife or kids for personnal transportation. As soon as my work requirements did let me, I abandoned cars about 30 years ago. I am a born rider, my fun had always been on 2 wheels, or 4 hooves. And I am still having the same fun riding, going on 71 years old.

vagosofron · Mar 29, 2018

billvon said:
MadRhino said:

An electric car is not much greener than a combustion car. Unless it is half the weight and size, it is not a significative improvement.

Click to expand...

I think it's a pretty significant improvement in terms of energy and resource usage, but it's not a complete solution - just another step along the path to "better."

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't petrol necessary for electricity production? I mean, EVs are not 100% green if you look at the big picture. Despite that, I'm building my own though...

LockH · Mar 29, 2018

^^ Hehe... In watt part of the world?

(WikiThe electricity sector in New Zealand uses mainly renewable energy sources such as hydropower, geothermal power and increasingly wind energy. 80% of energy for electricity generation is from renewable sources, making New Zealand one of the lowest carbon dioxide emitting countries in terms of electricity generation.
:wink:

... and PS: "EVs are not 100% green"... Watt size "EV"s... "Little" one-seaters? Or ones weighing many thousands of pounds with lots of extra, empty seats... with lots of (empty) cargo spaces... and designed to go much faster than most urban speed limits? (AND are really hard to pedal.)

[Insert Extra Wink here]

vagosofron · Mar 29, 2018

LockH said:
^^ Hehe... In watt part of the world?

(WikiThe electricity sector in New Zealand uses mainly renewable energy sources such as hydropower, geothermal power and increasingly wind energy. 80% of energy for electricity generation is from renewable sources, making New Zealand one of the lowest carbon dioxide emitting countries in terms of electricity generation.
:wink:

Click to expand...

... and PS: "EVs are not 100% green"... Watt size "EV"s... "Little" one-seaters? Or ones weighing many thousands of pounds with lots of extra, empty seats... with lots of (empty) cargo spaces... and designed to go much faster than most urban speed limits? (AND are really hard to pedal.)

[Insert Extra Wink here]

I don't know, but perhaps New Zealand is the exception? The "EVs are not 100% green" comment was more for the second category you mentioned hehe.

LockH · Mar 29, 2018

Hehe...

Electric bike purchases pulling people from private cars, finds NITC study:
https://cyclingindustry.news/electr...ng-people-from-private-cars-finds-nitc-study/

Starts:

A study of nearly 1,800 North Americans using electric bikes has found that a large chunk primarily took to pedal-assist bikes in order to help ditch their private cars.

Undertaken by the National Institute for Transportation and Communities, the study is an eye-opener as to why people are taking note; some 28% said they made a purchase specifically to reduce their car reliance. Users further reported that, without their e-Bike, 76% of their trips would have been made by car.

... "the study is an eye-opener"...

Includes a graph/pic:

Some folks may continue to think that some folks may like getting around town faster while saving TONS of money. :wink:

John in CR · Mar 29, 2018

vagosofron said:
billvon said:

MadRhino said:

An electric car is not much greener than a combustion car. Unless it is half the weight and size, it is not a significative improvement.

Click to expand...

I think it's a pretty significant improvement in terms of energy and resource usage, but it's not a complete solution - just another step along the path to "better."

Click to expand...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't petrol necessary for electricity production? I mean, EVs are not 100% green if you look at the big picture. Despite that, I'm building my own though...

Here in Costa Rica last year's electric production reached almost 100% from renewable sources...geothermal, wind, solar, and mostly hydro. The gas turbine backup system gets fired up only very rarely. Where electricity is produced by burning something the process is significantly more efficient and clean than burning it in a car, but you're correct in that nothing is 100% green, not even walking or pedaling a bike since powered by food is one of the most inefficient, costly, and pollution creating power source. Ebikes OTOH are the most efficient form of land transportation devised by man, and whether I charge mine from a wall socket or using my solar panels, they're about as green as it gets. Plus until we can move around by personal multi-rotor aircraft, they're the most fun and most time efficient and economical means of transport.

Could Electric Bikes Be Killing Off America’s Car Addiction?

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