Still not a drop here since May. We could really use a little rain.
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 August 2018
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: There is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19.
The extended forecast is quite interesting. Will be watching
Tropical Storm Rosa which is currently getting itself organized
way down in the tropics west of Central America. Latest forecasts
bring the feature northward to west of Baja California as a
hurricane by later Sunday/Monday. Meanwhile a longwave trough will
be developing off the California coast. Models are struggling
with the interaction of this trough and the tropical system
forecast to approach northern Baja. We`ve seen some pretty drastic
run to run variations for the last few days and the euro/gfs are
at odds with each other. There are scenarios where the mid-latitude
trough by-passes us and moves onshore over Socal while interacting
with Rosa while other scenarios suggest the potential for some
early season soaking rains over Norcal by early next week.