la Nina rears her ugly head

La Niña Rain Gage
Nothin'/Skunked-Foggy Doggy-Play Misty-Drizzle Corn-Light Showers-Steady Soaker-Bands/Sheets-Cats & Dogs
******************************************************************************** :D
 
Been drizzling and then raining off and on all day today, until around sunset. Now the sky is clear for the moment, but there's more storm stuff coming towards us that may or may not pass over us tonight.

Wasn't all that wet at work, but streets were still very wet and puddly as I got towards home, and right around my block (and probably south of it) it's little lakes everywhere that doesn't have drainage (including my yards).

Jelly was soaking wet when I got home, laying there apparently sleeping with her nose in the gap between the gate and fence, waking up excitedly with her "rusty squeaking" as I turned into the driveway and stopped in front of the gate.

None of the dogs since the fire except Tiny have done anything like that, but Jelly seems to have really decided I'm her peepulz (though honestly she likes most people that will pay any attention to her). (Kirin is a little put out that I pay any attention to anybody but her, but she isn't aggressive about it, just sad and annoyed).
 
Santa Ana winds blowing offshore up to 60 mph for the next few days should take the warm ocean water away from the coast due to cold deep water upwelling, lessening the chance of rain for us for a while. :(
 
STN(LOC)WINDSPD*TIME*****DATE*ELEV
Hemet (7 E) 31 MPH 0316 PM 10/15 1950

Full peak wind gusts table as of this afternoon. Visibility 15 miles+ so dust is low from the recent rain. Red Flag Warning for the entire area except for San Diego County coastal strip.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&wfo=sgx&sid=SGX&pil=PNS

Even though it is windy here, we seem to be sheltered somewhat by Mt. San Jacinto to the east and the Santa Rosa mountains to the south. :)
 
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 82.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
 
The Atlantic goes back to sleep, while"..THE INCESSANT EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON CONTINUES... ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...", looking more and more like El Niño every day.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
 
In ordet for a La Niña to become an El Niño, the warm water (pink area) on the lower left needs to extend to the right of the graphic. Weakened trade winds and cold Humboldt (Peru) Current are contributing factors in the phenomenon. The cold California Current (yellow) is visiuble to the upper right. Been so dry lately that humidity and dew point reported in the low teens in spots. Add some strong east winds and just a spark could ignite a wildfire. :flame: :twisted: :warn:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/sst.php
 
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tcp0RIkqaOI&feature=youtu.be
The news is bad but could improve for us this year.

http://www.weather.gov/media/sgx/2018Fall_CaliforniaCumulonimbus.pdf
For the price of a cheap rain gage could do this as a retirement hobby. 8)
 
Well, it's burning somewhere up north of here and I seem to be downwind getting a lot of smoke.

Visible satellite 11-08-18.JPG

Where's the rain when you need it?
 
It's still really bad this morning. And the fire is about 150 miles away. I guess the wind direction is unfavorable.

 
https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ048&warncounty=CAC065&firewxzone=CAZ248&local_place1=6%20Miles%20WNW%20Pine%20Cove%20CA&product1=High+Wind+Warning&lat=33.7816&lon=-116.8351 :shock:
 
Windy after leaving the house, lots of blowing dust as I went west. Saw two fire trucks lights & sirens on escorting a couple of heavy haul fire department earth movers headed east towards the mountains. Even with code 3 for them over an hours climb to go 20 miles to Mountain Center, fortunately no smoke seen.
 
Rain would be really great right about now. When the "Hazardous" area drifts over you, it's pretty nasty. My cars are covered with ashes.

 
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Thursday
A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 68.
Thursday Night
A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Friday
A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 67.

Most of the rain will probably stay north of Point Conception.
 
Now it's finally getting interesting:

Tuesday Night
Rain, mainly after 4am. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 54. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Rain before 10am, then showers after 10am. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 60. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers. Low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thanksgiving Day
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.
Thursday Night
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 54.
Friday
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 61

Should be enough to put out that fire.
 
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