Hillhater
100 TW
Isnt that basicly what Beastie said before you called him a liar ?Arlo1 said:
...and it doesnt sound like a typical over-ambitious, Musk, business plan ?
Tesla Model 3
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...and it doesnt sound like a typical over-ambitious, Musk, business plan ?
raylo32
100 kW
The question is how will Tesla sustain demand once the initial M3 rush is over? Are they expecting M3 customers to trade up to MS? Will there be incremental M3 upgrades... or some new mid level M4 or such... that will get folks to trade? And how will they make a profit long term in the cutthroat auto business? I believe these are all legitimate questions that we don't know the answers to yet.
Hillhater
100 TW
Most new car buyers traditionally replace their cars every 3-4 years ..lease periods, warranty , image, etc.... so if the M3 is as good as claimed and customers are satisfied, there should be a healthy return customer demand.raylo32 said:
Tesla have been quick with upgrades and revisions, so that should also encourage existing customers to replace/trade for new cars.
Add that to the anticipated forecast growth of EV’s , then there should be no problem with future demand....
The biggest threat is from other manufacturers crashing into the EV market with cheaper/better/ more attractive products.
One of the prime factors is price, and the key to price is reduction of manufacturing cost by maximising production rate and efficiency from capital assets.
Musk has stated they need 6000/week production of M3’s to break even, so they will have to find markets to support that capacity and more.
TheBeastie
1 MW
The fact you think the China factory even had a chance of coming online shows you are seriously out of touch with Elon's real goals of death by SEC so he can just dump his shares... It's all about the money!Arlo1 said:
Elon Musk’s CEO pay-to-worker ratio is the highest ever recorded
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2019/04/02/tsla-median-pay-musk-compensation.html
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All new stories out today, some merely hours old, hopefully, some of you guys can get clued up.
This is perhaps the biggest news for Tesla of all time: The Nikkei bombshell that Panasonic is done with investing in the Nevada factory, and plans no investment in Tesla's Shanghai factory, either.
Tesla and Panasonic freeze spending on $4.5bn Gigafactory
Japanese company also suspends planned investment in Shanghai plant
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Tesla-and-Panasonic-freeze-spending-on-4.5bn-Gigafactory
Unfortunately, the Q1 delivery numbers give the game away. $TLSA managed to exhaust, in six weeks, three years of European high-margin Model 3 demand, while US Model 3 demand cratered and Model S and X sales - worldwide - plunged deeply despite drastic price slashing.
https://twitter.com/Polixenes13/status/1116510954664099841
Yes everyone knows the China factory is being built but this is all about creating illusions at the perfect time, it's all going to fail. Elon's plan is to pedal to the metal drive right off the cliff at full speed and take as many people as he can down with him, this is why Panasonic has bailed on him.
You need the Panasonic battery making equipment to make batteries, not just a roof, Panasonic has long had a strict contract with Tesla that Panasonic owns all the IP and manufacturing equipment for lithium cells.
A key Tesla supplier cuts growth plans, raising red flags over demand for the Model 3
https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-demand-model3-models-modelx-20190411-story.html
"Panasonic is freezing plans to expand its role as Tesla’s electric car battery supplier, a move that raises new questions about demand for Tesla’s Model 3 — and the company’s future.
“The Panasonic news is a gut punch. This fans the flames on overall demand worries and profitability concerns going forward,” said the usually bullish Dan Ives, equity analyst at Wedbush Securities."
Even the ultra hardcore green energy Bloomberg dumped on Tesla
Tesla’s Growth Story Needs a New Charge
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-11/panasonic-gigafactory-plans-tesla-s-growth-needs-a-new-charge
And even ultra pro-EV Tesla electrek.co is willing to put out news that the 35k Model 3 Tesla is NEVER coming!
"Tesla kills base $35,000 Model 3, increases prices, makes Autopilot standard
https://electrek.co/2019/04/11/telsa-35000-model-3/
Tesla announced today a series of changes to its vehicle lineup, including moving away from the long-promised base Model 3 at $35,000 and an increase in price across the lineup that comes with Autopilot becoming standard."
Don't kill the messenger, it's all there on the most respectable/sueable media sources out there!
jonescg
100 MW
TheBeastie said:
It's got more than a chance of coming online; it's being built. But I'm well aware of the parallel universe you live in, so fair enough.
The fact you think it's not shows how out of touch you are. So I want to make a point of this time in history and what you just said. I am willing to place a wager on this as much at $150,000 which I would get by re-mortgeing my house to cover. My saying is the China factor is being built and will be online very soon. If they don't build it you win. If they do I win. Simple. Now I will warn you they have already started the assembly of the structure.TheBeastie said:
As for all the rest of your bs lies I will respond later.
raylo32
100 kW
Sure, lets consider Toyota. They have just a "few" other profitable models for customers to move up to bigger/more luxe, or over to trucks, or eco like hybrids and fuel cell vehicles. They don't rely on Camry folks always upgrading to new Camrys every few years. Do you honestly believe that these guys can not build an EV that is as good as Tesla for less $?
https://www.toyota.com/all-vehicles/
https://www.toyota.com/all-vehicles/
Arlo1 said:
Hillhater
100 TW
I cannot quite decide if you have a crystal ball or just a besotted fan boy .Arlo1 said:
Forecasting Musks future decisions is a guessing game.
..how is that Giga factory 2 performing ???
The reason Tesla is betting big on expansion is to try and maintain their lead and avoid getting crushed by the big encumbent car manufacturers when they finally decide to start leveraging their huge manufacturing facilities and supply chains to make EV's. Tesla currently has a huge USP of being unique, but it won't last forever. They need to establish cheaper/better batteries & drivetrains in the long term than their future competitors.
As Hillhater said, it's a real, existential threat to Tesla.
As Hillhater said, it's a real, existential threat to Tesla.
Have you ever noticed you can find a negative news source towards Tesla? I mean head lines could even read "Tesla announces cure for cancer stock drops 10%" Someone will spin anything they can in a bad way.Hillhater said:
Seems pretty good to me. https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-gigafactory-2-tesla-energy-ramp/
Ianhill
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Arlo1 said:
It's who got the most money can take the biggest loss hit till they dominate then implement ways of making you stick with them, Like Amazon has done some of the car makers are making a move and toyota and vw group are the ones to watch they have enough backed up to sell cars below their cost as a finger in the sky to tesla.
Let's be honest elon has struggled to keep cost down and production schedule where as in the early 90's America count make a car with out having a strike and union involved and honda came and sorted that out so maybe toyota and their work ethics with a healthy start to their day may have what it takes to keep forward and make a model that stand a out like the prius did for hybrid they sure do have the logistical position, work force and revenue to implement a world beater.
What is a world beater is it the best of everything? No its what's easy enough to use gets you there in comfort with reliability and most important it's cheap to own and service all of those things toyota is more than likely the brand that will get the job done but are waiting for the perfect time to pounce let there be a big enough demand first more than just enthusiasts when the public demand shifts to pure ev tesla won't have it all their own way or do they have any thing special that others can not emulate if not improve the motor technology is current gen but whats stoping toyota or alike jumping a generation in motpr tech to to an axial halbach array ?
I think there will be alot of one upmanship going on like we have always seen with the ice cars.
liveforphysics
100 TW
Maybe I just notice them more, but it seems like I'm seeing more Tesla's than Toyota's on my daily commute here in California. I'm sure there's hundreds of Toyota's registered for every 1 Tesla, but once someone has a Tesla that Toyota's going to be a driveway ornament rather than something someone wants to drive.
Model S is incredible and already slayed the sporty luxo-box market. Model 3 is incredible, and the self driving is so amazing it makes commutes and long trips an effortless relaxing scenic tour.
New Roadster is positioned to create performance irrelevance and obsolescence of every production supercar/hypercar at any price.
Toyota is positioned great for volume production of chassis and motor/inverter tech. However, the coming car market is pure EV, and you win that game at the battery level. Whomever is positioned to have lower cost of energy storage can afford to put more into the vehicle and it's performance for a given price-point of vehicle. Nobody else aside from Tesla has a Gigafactory, and Tesla is about to have 2 of them...
There's about to be a collapse of the ICE vehicle demand as more people gain awareness it's not a good idea to poison your life support system. In this collapse, most of the big players with a foot in each boat (ICE and EV) will fall, Tesla and maybe a couple others who were early to get volume EV production and supply chain worked out will survive to try to fill whatever niche parts of the market Tesla doesn't choose to dominate.
Model S is incredible and already slayed the sporty luxo-box market. Model 3 is incredible, and the self driving is so amazing it makes commutes and long trips an effortless relaxing scenic tour.
New Roadster is positioned to create performance irrelevance and obsolescence of every production supercar/hypercar at any price.
Toyota is positioned great for volume production of chassis and motor/inverter tech. However, the coming car market is pure EV, and you win that game at the battery level. Whomever is positioned to have lower cost of energy storage can afford to put more into the vehicle and it's performance for a given price-point of vehicle. Nobody else aside from Tesla has a Gigafactory, and Tesla is about to have 2 of them...
There's about to be a collapse of the ICE vehicle demand as more people gain awareness it's not a good idea to poison your life support system. In this collapse, most of the big players with a foot in each boat (ICE and EV) will fall, Tesla and maybe a couple others who were early to get volume EV production and supply chain worked out will survive to try to fill whatever niche parts of the market Tesla doesn't choose to dominate.
larsb
1 MW
Tesla will eventually be losing the automotive battle. Sure they are hyped and disruptive today but the established car makers are on the hunt. Any of the big ones can make a better car package once the electric solutions have reached a more mature state.
Doesn't matter if you were first once someone else is better..
Doesn't matter if you were first once someone else is better..
larsb said:
This is complete fallacy.
The major OEMs are hurting now. And its just going to get worse. They need batteries look at GM or BMW do they make batteries?
How many years does it take to build a battery factory and learn how to mass produce batteries?
GM looses major money on the BOLT because they don't make any of the EV components!
Good frocking luck. All the Major OEMs who have a Stake in the ICE game are screwed if they try to go hard after the EV market they will kill their own ICE brand and loose 10s of Billions in the process.
LeftieBiker
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Panasonic has pulled out of the Giga Factory expansion. The Chinese have their own giant battery factory.
larsb
1 MW
Might be like this for the american brands.. Volvo in sweden are already in negotiations to handle their ICE developers future. They know their time is up.
Batteries can be bought, whoever seals the complete car package the best will win.
I don't think it'll be tesla. They had their moment, just like the cd player and VHS tape.
Ianhill
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I won't rule tesla out they could branch out just like toyota has with Lexus and turn the model s x y and 3 into a luxury chain and move a new brand at the cheaper end of the market utilizing components from the brother brand but with a raspi for the infotainment system and cut throat self driving system just basic pedestrian safety and braking etc if they pulled that one out the bag in a yaris size car then they will dominate bit these current wagons are to luxury to hit a wide enough audience.
larsb said:
When you mark up the most expensive part of an EV to make your company profitable. You better hope you are the one making the battery rather then another middle man.
Tesla is a energy company first car company second. This is just 1 of their many moats.
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