Investing in Tesla General Discussion Thread

[wineboyrider]

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/27/elon-mus ... -note.html

I dont doubt the Trump factor is part of the reason, but its unlikely to be the main factor.
Trump is also a supporter of Fossil fuels, which should weigh against Tesla and boost other energy stocks to a similar extent...but it has not.

[Hillhater]

Hmmm ?, a lot of speculation and random interpretation of a few facts there !
Summed up in that last paragraph..

some (or all) of this may turn out to be wishful thinking by fans of Mr. Musk, Tesla investors, environmentalists and hopeful space colonists.......

No real solid reason to think Tesla is worth more today than last November....
.....but i guess that is Wall street in action !

[TheBeastie]

Another self-driving Tesla crash caught on camera. Lately I been seeing the world with quite a fair bit of cynicism lately, so I can only assume that Tesla will be sueing the owner of this particular Tesla for inadvertently making self driving cars look bad..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... ht-dashcam

[bigmoose]

Just a random thought... I read that truck driver was the most common job in like 45 of our states, give or take. I sure don't want to see all those jobs lost to computers driving trucks.

Many, many years ago (1976 to be precise) a eastern gentleman said to me on a business trip that the west's constant quest for efficiency will be our downfall. He stated how all people need a job, and to find meaning in it. Basically idle hands are a devil's workshop.

[wineboyrider]

Just a random thought... I read that truck driver was the most common job in like 45 of our states, give or take. I sure don't want to see all those jobs lost to computers driving trucks.

Many, many years ago (1976 to be precise) a eastern gentleman said to me on a business trip that the west's constant quest for efficiency will be our downfall. He stated how all people need a job, and to find meaning in it. Basically idle hands are a devil's workshop.

Just went and saw the new Marvel movie "Logan" and in it they have self driving trucks that drive containers? Are these real already?

[Hillhater]

Just went and saw the new Marvel movie "Logan" and in it they have self driving trucks that drive containers? Are these real already?

..Yes. There are certainly automated container trucks operating in some of the large container handling facilities.Load/unload fully automated.
But unlikely to be legalised for public highway use yet, though i have read that some have been tested with human "supervision". on board for safety/legal/emergencies.
https://www.wired.com/2016/10/ubers-sel ... 000-beers/

[MitchJi]

Just a random thought... I read that truck driver was the most common job in like 45 of our states, give or take. I sure don't want to see all those jobs lost to computers driving trucks.

Many, many years ago (1976 to be precise) a eastern gentleman said to me on a business trip that the west's constant quest for efficiency will be our downfall. He stated how all people need a job, and to find meaning in it. Basically idle hands are a devil's workshop.

Two other things to consider:
Elon said that he believes that fairly soon that autonomous driving will be good enough to eliminate 90% of accidents. When the NHSTA was investigating the Josh Brown case in which he died crashing into the side of a truck they stated that in MS-MX's with AP installed, not necessarily in use, that accidents serious enough to trigger air bag deployment were reduced by 40%.

We do have a shortage of jobs, but not a shortage of constructive work that should be performed. As a society we could structure our jobs so that we compensated people for doing necessary and constructive work. Of course that's in opposition to the tea-brains who claim we can't afford to do that.

[Hillhater]

.......
We do have a shortage of jobs, but not a shortage of constructive work that should be performed. As a society we could structure our jobs so that we compensated people for doing necessary and constructive work. Of course that's in opposition to the tea-brains who claim we can't afford to do that.

...isnt that called Socialism ?

[TheBeastie]

.......
We do have a shortage of jobs, but not a shortage of constructive work that should be performed. As a society we could structure our jobs so that we compensated people for doing necessary and constructive work. Of course that's in opposition to the tea-brains who claim we can't afford to do that.

...isnt that called Socialism ?

Elon will say anything to boost his stock price. Elon Musk also said that if you cover a nuclear power plant and surrounding area with solar panels you generate the equivalent amount of electrical power and people run around parroting these claims all the time as if they can't make the basic connection between what he says and how much it will enrich him or if it was remotely true it would have already been done, the bias sets in...
It takes a lot of sucker money for him to be able to walk on Mars but so far its working out great for him, I have a feeling a wider amount of people are getting better weighing things up on wikipedia and things might be on a new downtrend for him, not for this remark directly but for things in general.

A 25km2 solar farm generates 125MW average output capacity factor as stated on wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm


Cattenom Nuclear Power Plant 5,448 MW output when ever it wants.


https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewt ... 0#p1208363
The interesting thing about this is how you can quickly work out such a statement is false in 30seconds but 15 years ago trying to find out the truth would have been near impossible.

I don't see why all these extra vehicle sensors/self driving technology can't be combined so that the driver is still needed and ultimately responsible but still having the car doing %99 of the work, which unloads a huge legal headache for authorities , its just that if you can get rid of the driver Elons stock is worth at least double.

[Hillhater]

I have previously pondered how Tesla were going to fully power their Gfactory using their own on site solar farm.
Even the original plan to produce 35 GWh of cells annualy would require quite a installation of solar just for one initial charge of those cells, but now they are suggesting 50-60 GWh of production, and ultimately 150GWh !
Tesla , however claim they will need 300MW (supply?) to produce the initial 35GWh of cell production ?
In addition they will need some impressive battery storage for the periods (days and nights) there is no sun !
And that is ignoring all other power demand for running the worlds largest battery factory 24/7
Even using Teslas ??? Figure of 300MW, and the Topaz data (of 125MW ave, and $2.4b cost) , then it suggests that Tesla will need something over twice the capacity/size of Topaz with the associated cost ($6-$7bn ?)
..+ the battery farm !
None of this adds up at all .

[TheBeastie]

I have previously pondered how Tesla were going to fully power their Gfactory using their own on site solar farm.
Even the original plan to produce 35 GWh of cells annualy would require quite a installation of solar just for one initial charge of those cells, but now they are suggesting 50-60 GWh of production, and ultimately 150GWh !
Tesla , however claim they will need 300MW (supply?) to produce the initial 35GWh of cell production ?
In addition they will need some impressive battery storage for the periods (days and nights) there is no sun !
And that is ignoring all other power demand for running the worlds largest battery factory 24/7
Even using Teslas ??? Figure of 300MW, and the Topaz data (of 125MW ave, and $2.4b cost) , then it suggests that Tesla will need something over twice the capacity/size of Topaz with the associated cost ($6-$7bn ?)
..+ the battery farm !
None of this adds up at all .

Considering Elons history of stretching words to help promote his products I think the numbers on it all will be closely guarded and the best numbers that can be easily distorted and misread are the only numbers we will see.
With the 18650/20700 cells they are encased in steel and nickel plated which would be done by burning lots of coal and energy in China etc putting aside the energy of extracting the lithium and also the 40,000 or so African kids they need to dig up the cobalt. The gigafactory would be the cleaner looking side of it all with the final construction and charging up of the cells. As long as everyone can look/feel good about themselves about saving the planet buying Elons stuff that's all that matters.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-25/w ... ie/8187296

[Punx0r]

Even the original plan to produce 35 GWh of cells annualy would require quite a installation of solar just for one initial charge of those cells...In addition they will need some impressive battery storage for the periods (days and nights) there is no sun !

Hmm. A factory full of li-ion cells that have to be charged & discharged as part of the manufacturing process. I wonder what could be used a sink & source for solar power...

[Hillhater]

Even the original plan to produce 35 GWh of cells annualy would require quite a installation of solar just for one initial charge of those cells...In addition they will need some impressive battery storage for the periods (days and nights) there is no sun !

Hmm. A factory full of li-ion cells that have to be charged & discharged as part of the manufacturing process. I wonder what could be used a sink & source for solar power...

So you think they might somehow arrange to have 300MW (for say 12 hours overnight minimum).. of power available from cells as part of the manufacturing process ?
That would be 3.6 GWh of cells , or more than a months worth of production..
I estimate that to be about 200 million cells !.....all connected up and controlled to feed power back to the main service supply !..with 5 million of them removed and replaced daily to be passed on for pack assembly ?
Or, i guess they could be finished Mod 3 packs....60,000 of them !
..Oh, yes, ..and the Solar farm has to be doubled in size to recharge them again during the day !

[Punx0r]

I never said it would cover all of it (didn't bother to work out the numbers) but it's an obvious solution to at least part of the problem.

The issue is you're doing a back-of-the-envelope calculation using third-hand numbers from the internet and based on the result declaring a billion-dollar project to be fundamentally flawed. Who is really more likely to have made a mistake here?

It's a huge facility in the desert run by a guy who also runs a solar power farm business. On balance of probability there's a good chance that claims made it will run exclusively, or mostly, or a significant part, on solar power are viable.

[brumbrum]

None of this adds up at all .

Considering Elons history of stretching words to help promote his products I think the numbers on it all will be closely guarded and the best numbers that can be easily distorted and misread are the only numbers we will see.
With the 18650/20700 cells they are encased in steel and nickel plated which would be done by burning lots of coal and energy in China etc putting aside the energy of extracting the lithium and also the 40,000 or so African kids they need to dig up the cobalt. The gigafactory would be the cleaner looking side of it all with the final construction and charging up of the cells. As long as everyone can look/feel good about themselves about saving the planet buying Elons stuff that's all that matters.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-25/w ... ie/8187296

Nicely said. Dark, but of course true.

[Hillhater]

The issue is you're doing a back-of-the-envelope calculation using third-hand numbers from the internet and based on the result declaring a billion-dollar project to be fundamentally flawed. Who is really more likely to have made a mistake here...

Or..who is more likely to have massaged the facts and "sold the sizzle" to convince everyone this is a "green" project to gain attention ?
The 300MW is Teslas own figure.
..but please check the figures and let me know how far out i am.

....It's a huge facility in the desert run by a guy who also runs a solar power farm business. On balance of probability there's a good chance that claims made it will run exclusively, or mostly, or a significant part, on solar power are viable.

A solar power business that makes losses
It COULD run .."mostly, or a significant part, on solar power ".... But at what cost ?
Big corporations are known for their total honesty when it comes to selling their image .....especially when seeking funding !
Time will tell .