38% of cars sold in China are now electric, Sinopec says the ICE is doomed
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JackFlorey
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I've heard that before.
I think a stronger effect will be that as demand for gas drops, gas prices will come down, and more people will choose gas cars for economic reasons. That will tend to reduce adoption rates for EVs - even if in the long run they become the majority of cars out there.
I think a stronger effect will be that as demand for gas drops, gas prices will come down, and more people will choose gas cars for economic reasons. That will tend to reduce adoption rates for EVs - even if in the long run they become the majority of cars out there.
scianiac
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I think this may have some effect but I'm not sure how much, the shift will still take time and there are other factors at play. First to set a baseline only about 25% of oil is used for cars so that caps the price decrease somewhat there and those other uses may also take advantage of cheaper oil to use more.
Then you have to consider that while many developed countries are rapidly adopting EVs, the developing world is not and probably won't for a long time. You have to remember most new cars are bought in the developed world so the developing world will still be buying all our used gas cars probably for a long time to come and their oil consumption rate will continue to increase as they develop, somewhat offsetting the decease in oil demand. That is to say I think there will be plenty of demand for oil.
That and lets be real if you are only comparing cost to drive a given distance that gas is going to have to be incredibly cheap to match even an inefficient EV. Sure some will keep their ICE longer if gas is cheaper and some will buy another ICE but I don't think the effect is going to be that noticeable.
And the technology advancement of EVs means they will continue to become cheaper to buy at a faster rate than ICE. Sure there are probably a few advancements left to make a slightly cheaper ICE but at this point those are going to be quite small and are constantly be offset by emissions regulations and the constant push to make ICE more efficient through complexity. Meanwhile batteries are getting cheaper very rapidly and there is no sign of that slowing soon. And only a few companies are just starting to figure out that a whole new architecture allows whole new ways of manufacturing and assembly that are more efficient. Things like more efficient packaging, reduced NVH requirements, combined structural elements, improved vehicle control and stability.
China has a fraction of the oil reserves of the USA, but 4 times the people, and 4 times the coal, so moving to electric makes a lot of sense from a pure economics perspective.
Meanwhile in the USA:
U.S. Holds Most Recoverable Oil Reserves
"OSLO, NORWAY–The United States now holds the world’s largest recoverable oil reserve base–more than Saudi Arabia or Russia–thanks to the development of unconventional resource plays.
Ranking nations by the most likely estimate for existing fields, discoveries and as-of-yet undiscovered fields (proved, probable. possible and undiscovered), the United States is at the top of the list with 264 billion barrels of recoverable oil reserves, followed by Russia with 256 billion, Saudi Arabia with 212 billion, Canada with 167 billion, Iran with 143 billion, and Brazil with 120 billion (Table 1)."
So yeah we are probably stuck on oil for a while until battery technology crosses certain thresholds that make an EV more of a no brainer choice.
Meanwhile in the USA:
U.S. Holds Most Recoverable Oil Reserves
"OSLO, NORWAY–The United States now holds the world’s largest recoverable oil reserve base–more than Saudi Arabia or Russia–thanks to the development of unconventional resource plays.
Ranking nations by the most likely estimate for existing fields, discoveries and as-of-yet undiscovered fields (proved, probable. possible and undiscovered), the United States is at the top of the list with 264 billion barrels of recoverable oil reserves, followed by Russia with 256 billion, Saudi Arabia with 212 billion, Canada with 167 billion, Iran with 143 billion, and Brazil with 120 billion (Table 1)."
So yeah we are probably stuck on oil for a while until battery technology crosses certain thresholds that make an EV more of a no brainer choice.
I think we'll keep burning oil until there's no more left. Even if everyone switches to an electric car, we'll burn oil to make electricity. But it will be burnt all.
Some time ago i read about cargo ships replacing heavy bunker oil with some cleaner alternatives. Great idea, but nobody dared to say what will happen to all that dirty bunker oil if ships don't want it. It has to be produced and will be, because it's a byproduct of oil refinement process, so not even possible to reduce the amount produced. So i'm afraid the answer is simple - somebody else will buy and burn it.
Some time ago i read about cargo ships replacing heavy bunker oil with some cleaner alternatives. Great idea, but nobody dared to say what will happen to all that dirty bunker oil if ships don't want it. It has to be produced and will be, because it's a byproduct of oil refinement process, so not even possible to reduce the amount produced. So i'm afraid the answer is simple - somebody else will buy and burn it.
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scianiac
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I also think a driver of EV sales will start to become convenience and ease of use both things somewhat separated from gas prices. In the US I think first we'll see more and more two car households switch to one EV along with suburban households. The range anxiety however unrealistic it often is can be overlooked by very easily if you have two cars. If you have a garage and don't live very far away from most things (suburban) the convenience of never having to go to a gas station, no oil changes and similar maintenance, along with a comfortable and easy driving experience will win more and more over.
I think two things are so often overlooked when people talk about EVs that lead to flawed arguments. The first is that EVs are too expensive and they are too boring. I've seen so many people claim that buying a new EV will never pay for itself vs driving the gas car you have and that these new EVs are too expensive, who would pay over 30K for a car. It seems these arguments are always made from people who have never bought a new car and in this discussion the only people that matter really are people who buy new cars, every used car was once new. And while sure I would never spend the kind of money on a car that most new cars cost the popularity of trucks and massive SUVs with crazy price tags seems to indicate that new buyers may not be that price sensitive and getting them to pay an extra 5-10k for an EV equivalent of an ICE if that is what they want is probably not that hard and it's probably more a matter of them wanting it. And that is probably down to things like the garbage EV offerings from many brands, FUD about range, cold weather, battery life, etc and just never having tried one before. Almost forgot, that is to say two car households and suburban households are also probably much more likely to constitute a larger percentage of new car buyers due to wealth brackets.
Which leads me to the EVs are boring, an argument made by car people who seem to often overlook that most people couldn't give a shit about car stuff and just want their car to be an appliance, one that does it's job well without ever having to think about it. They want a vehicle that is quiet, comfortable, low maintenance and if they charge it at home and never go to a gas station, that's all the more convenient and convenience sells.
I think two things are so often overlooked when people talk about EVs that lead to flawed arguments. The first is that EVs are too expensive and they are too boring. I've seen so many people claim that buying a new EV will never pay for itself vs driving the gas car you have and that these new EVs are too expensive, who would pay over 30K for a car. It seems these arguments are always made from people who have never bought a new car and in this discussion the only people that matter really are people who buy new cars, every used car was once new. And while sure I would never spend the kind of money on a car that most new cars cost the popularity of trucks and massive SUVs with crazy price tags seems to indicate that new buyers may not be that price sensitive and getting them to pay an extra 5-10k for an EV equivalent of an ICE if that is what they want is probably not that hard and it's probably more a matter of them wanting it. And that is probably down to things like the garbage EV offerings from many brands, FUD about range, cold weather, battery life, etc and just never having tried one before. Almost forgot, that is to say two car households and suburban households are also probably much more likely to constitute a larger percentage of new car buyers due to wealth brackets.
Which leads me to the EVs are boring, an argument made by car people who seem to often overlook that most people couldn't give a shit about car stuff and just want their car to be an appliance, one that does it's job well without ever having to think about it. They want a vehicle that is quiet, comfortable, low maintenance and if they charge it at home and never go to a gas station, that's all the more convenient and convenience sells.
Nah I don't think so, we'll burn/use it (probably use it longer than we burn it) for as long as it's economically viable to do so. It's not like oil is free to get, move, process, etc and if it's too expensive compared to alternatives we'll stop pumping it just like it became not economical viable to keep using whale oil before we killed all the whales. And I think to produce electricity will be one of the first places it will become no longer viable (I mean it isn't now), I expect the last will probably be as a chemical precursor with shipping and aircraft being somewhere in the middle. Although I could be wrong a few uses could take so long to find a economical alternative we'll pump most of the oil.
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You know what, that's my problem.
Tesla = not boring but way too full of technology for my taste, also intentionally unrepairable, and the company doesn't have their owner's backs like say, Toyota... so for that reason i wouldn't buy one.
Everyone else = everything is overpriced and way too big and heavy for my taste, what i want is something the size of a newer Honda Civic or smaller.
Other problems:
- No possibility of getting affordable EVs thanks to the current and future president here.
- The upfront cost is still high for a quality EV model, in fact cars have gotten very expensive thanks to rampant inflation during the covid era
- No more super low interest financing available makes the above situation worse, USA isn't giving out substantial tax credits that put the EV in price parity with a gasser
- The weight and difficulty to find parts makes these cars non-backyard mechanic repairable; i like to fix stuff
- Few companies are making excellent EVs so far, a lot of them are just making them because of government mandates
- I don't have a plug
I work from home and have a tiny gas car that averages 50mpg that sees 5000 miles on it per year. If i drove more, i'd probably buy a Prius. ( current generation is very impressive )
Hillhater
100 TW
Electric Viking is a tunnel visioned, idealologist with a heavily distorted view of reality !
The EV market is a false or “Forced” market that exists mainly due to external political policies , subsidies, tarrifs, and penalties.
Even so, there is major trouble ahead as much of the apparent EV sales data is heavily skewed by “internal” or “captive” sales, where manufacturers sell EVs to employees, dealerships, Rental and Government fleets, and even simply pre register vehicles in order to meet sales targets and avoid the huge penalties on ICE/EV ratios.
But that can only be a temporary solution especially as the sales ratio targets increase each year, and those options have been exhausted.
Many traditional manufacturers will suffer huge losses as they are prevented from using the margins made on ICEs to subsidise the higher cost EVs which are not replacing the volume sales of the ICEs
Nissan/ Stellantis and VW are already in a precarious financial situation, with the Chinese waiting to pick up the pieces cheaply.
“Forced” market products are reknown to fail, ( Bud light, New Coke, Windows Vista , etc) or at best have a limited success if the “forcing” and incentives are big enough.
EVs will eventually gain a share of the automotive market, but not as big or as fast as some would have us believe.
The EV market is a false or “Forced” market that exists mainly due to external political policies , subsidies, tarrifs, and penalties.
Even so, there is major trouble ahead as much of the apparent EV sales data is heavily skewed by “internal” or “captive” sales, where manufacturers sell EVs to employees, dealerships, Rental and Government fleets, and even simply pre register vehicles in order to meet sales targets and avoid the huge penalties on ICE/EV ratios.
But that can only be a temporary solution especially as the sales ratio targets increase each year, and those options have been exhausted.
Many traditional manufacturers will suffer huge losses as they are prevented from using the margins made on ICEs to subsidise the higher cost EVs which are not replacing the volume sales of the ICEs
Nissan/ Stellantis and VW are already in a precarious financial situation, with the Chinese waiting to pick up the pieces cheaply.
“Forced” market products are reknown to fail, ( Bud light, New Coke, Windows Vista , etc) or at best have a limited success if the “forcing” and incentives are big enough.
EVs will eventually gain a share of the automotive market, but not as big or as fast as some would have us believe.
Hillhater
100 TW
Anyone attempting to justify an EV on financial a basis, is deluding themselves !
…ask the professionals, (Hertz, Sixt etc) who have real life experience of what EV costs actually are.
beyond the obvious higher purchace or lease cost, running , maintenance, depreciation, and repairs have proven to be much greater than those suggested by the manufacturers. Insurance costs are also becomming a cause for concern.
Electricity costs are increasing much faster than gas fuel costs, again with some scary predictions for the future.
So unless an EV owner is prepared to always recharge fromtheir own Roof Top Solar ( in which case add on the purchace cost of that also ) , then their public “street” recharge costs are likely to exceed gas prices in the future.
P.S…. The AEI have rated Roof Top Solar as the most expensive source of electricity !
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scianiac
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I mean I totally agree on the complexity and repair-ability thing but at this point I don't think an EV is much more difficult to repair or complex all things considered than an equivalent modern ICE car. And I don't mean comparing it to some dirt cheap car with no features because while those do exist here and there for ICE they don't for EVs in many markets. But alas we are not the primary buyers of cars the those that are want more shiny "features", put no thought into the engineering nightmare they are buying, and are not interested or even thinking about fixing a car, they're buying a new car after all probably to not have to think about fixing it. But I think those cheaper and somewhat simpler EVs will come about at some point to fill that market niche but only after the popular markets are filled up.
They're not difficult to repair but the parts, knowledge, over complexity, and software lockouts is the problem.
That and the battery is why they depreciate like mad.
I wish i could buy a dirt cheap car here in the states, everything is over featured and over technology'd, i was lucky to buy a Mazda 2 before they pulled it off the market due to poor sales.
Like literally i would buy an electric version of a base model 1992 Civic. I want the lowest technology car with the highest technology battery.
Supposedly there'll be an 'electrified' miata but that might mean hybrid..
That and the battery is why they depreciate like mad.
I wish i could buy a dirt cheap car here in the states, everything is over featured and over technology'd, i was lucky to buy a Mazda 2 before they pulled it off the market due to poor sales.
Like literally i would buy an electric version of a base model 1992 Civic. I want the lowest technology car with the highest technology battery.
Supposedly there'll be an 'electrified' miata but that might mean hybrid..
slaphappygamer
1 kW
I think this is why lots of people lease an electric car. That and the fact that you don’t have to worry about the battery. Just trade the car back in when your lease is up.
P.S. An electric Miata would be sick!
Hillhater
100 TW
And you think the lease costs do not reflect the higher purchace price, depreciation and repairs etc etc ??
Leasing makes an EV ACCESSABLE, but does not avoid the costs of ownership !
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JackFlorey
100 kW
We don't now. The only state that uses any appreciable amount of oil for power generation is Hawaii - and even they are phasing it out.
Just saw this recently. Kinda shocking honestly.
Short version: legacy automakers have been caught with their pants down by Chinese EVs flooding the market, and not having anything remotely equivalent on offer. In certain countries where people can buy Chinese EVs, like Thailand and Indonesia, sales of gas cars are so bad that they're shutting down local gas car manufacturing plants that have supplied the regions for ages due to consumer preferences changing.
Nissan and Honda are looking to merge and their reasons are partially related to this.
On that topic, this is a problem in Germany too. German automakers didn't support tarriffs. Mercedes Benz went on the record as being against Chinese car tariffs, because retaliatory tariffs could hurt their business.
Not looking good for them.
The last 10 years of EVs has been pretty disappointing. Only Tesla has been taking EV manufacturing seriously, getting the cost down and improving the state of the art. Everyone else opting to be a B or C level student..
But Tesla got obsessed with selling luxury-ish cars and the average person can't afford one.. they took all that expertise and have only sold to the mid to high end market so far.
It seems we are into the 'early majority' part of EV adoption.. with most of the world having access to Chinese electric cars that are +/- 10% of the price of an equivalent gas car... the global rate of adoption is all up from here.
I mean hey, that's good.
I just hope my only choice for my future EV isn't just Chinese makes!
Short version: legacy automakers have been caught with their pants down by Chinese EVs flooding the market, and not having anything remotely equivalent on offer. In certain countries where people can buy Chinese EVs, like Thailand and Indonesia, sales of gas cars are so bad that they're shutting down local gas car manufacturing plants that have supplied the regions for ages due to consumer preferences changing.
Nissan and Honda are looking to merge and their reasons are partially related to this.
On that topic, this is a problem in Germany too. German automakers didn't support tarriffs. Mercedes Benz went on the record as being against Chinese car tariffs, because retaliatory tariffs could hurt their business.
Not looking good for them.
The last 10 years of EVs has been pretty disappointing. Only Tesla has been taking EV manufacturing seriously, getting the cost down and improving the state of the art. Everyone else opting to be a B or C level student..
But Tesla got obsessed with selling luxury-ish cars and the average person can't afford one.. they took all that expertise and have only sold to the mid to high end market so far.
It seems we are into the 'early majority' part of EV adoption.. with most of the world having access to Chinese electric cars that are +/- 10% of the price of an equivalent gas car... the global rate of adoption is all up from here.
I mean hey, that's good.
I just hope my only choice for my future EV isn't just Chinese makes!
raylo32
100 kW
Not just battery tech and range but charging infrastructure, IMO, is the elephant in the room, at least for many of us who take road trips. Even a mediocre 300 mile range EV would work if you could stop anywhere you ran low to recharge like you can gas up an ICE. But we are just so far from that since it makes little sense to overbuild charging stations with too few EVs out and about. Hard to see how this chicken or the egg scenario resolves anytime soon.
The current situation deters me from getting an EV since you have to use one of those silly planners to guestimate and optimize charge stops... but you never know if they will work when you get there or will be occupied. And if there is a traffic delay on the way all that goes out the window. Just too much logistical pain and risk for me.
And the other issue that never gets discussed is the cost to charge at public fast DC chargers. I have seen base rates up to 72 cents per KWh which makes driving an EV on the highways significantly more expensive per mile than my 2023 Tundra. Sure, if you pay for a "subscription" you get some discount, but will still pay many x what you pay to charge at home. And if you can't find one that you are subscribed to, bend over even more. LOL.
The current situation deters me from getting an EV since you have to use one of those silly planners to guestimate and optimize charge stops... but you never know if they will work when you get there or will be occupied. And if there is a traffic delay on the way all that goes out the window. Just too much logistical pain and risk for me.
And the other issue that never gets discussed is the cost to charge at public fast DC chargers. I have seen base rates up to 72 cents per KWh which makes driving an EV on the highways significantly more expensive per mile than my 2023 Tundra. Sure, if you pay for a "subscription" you get some discount, but will still pay many x what you pay to charge at home. And if you can't find one that you are subscribed to, bend over even more. LOL.
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Western carmakers relied on superior combustion engine technology, advanced mechanical design and manufacturing. China had no easy way to reach similar level. But EVs , they're mostly electronics, batteries and software - China has all the know-how and it's the West suddenly playing catch-up.
classicalgas
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Second or third hand EV's are readily available for under ten grand...under five grand if you don't need more than 100 mile range
A couple examples...
Kid in college, needs something to get to school and back, go out with friends (under 50 miles a day) He was driving a family hand me down, a late 90's Toyota Avalon, that needed increasing amounts of repairs ... leaky power steering, spark plug replacement (it's a transverse V-6, spark plug change cost $300+, often requires removing the intake manifold) tires, water pump, belts, hoses, leaky valve cover...
Kid did his research, found a ten year old Fiat 500 E for seven grand. Looks almost new. He gets free parking and charging at home *and at school*, figures it will pay for itself (compared to keeping the Avalon running), in less than five years. No hassles with a mechanic, no checking fluids once a week, no wondering about funny smells or noises...
Only downside is it's a cramped three person car, not a semi cramped five person car. Also, no two thousand mile road trips like he did in the Avalon.
Second example...Retired couple, suburban home, it's ten miles to the nearest grocery store. They drove two gas cars for decades, but one of them only leaves the drive once or twice a week, and then, drives less than 50 miles. If her car weren't a hybrid that gets over 45 mpg average, a plug in EV would easily replace it, and probably cost only a couple grand more than they'd get in trade for the hybrid. If they expected to drive it more miles a week, or for more years ( she's going blind ) a used EV would be an obvious replacement for the old hybrid...cheaper, newer, simpler.
Used EV's are an obvious win unless your household only has one one car, or everyone in it drives more than 100 miles a day.
A couple examples...
Kid in college, needs something to get to school and back, go out with friends (under 50 miles a day) He was driving a family hand me down, a late 90's Toyota Avalon, that needed increasing amounts of repairs ... leaky power steering, spark plug replacement (it's a transverse V-6, spark plug change cost $300+, often requires removing the intake manifold) tires, water pump, belts, hoses, leaky valve cover...
Kid did his research, found a ten year old Fiat 500 E for seven grand. Looks almost new. He gets free parking and charging at home *and at school*, figures it will pay for itself (compared to keeping the Avalon running), in less than five years. No hassles with a mechanic, no checking fluids once a week, no wondering about funny smells or noises...
Only downside is it's a cramped three person car, not a semi cramped five person car. Also, no two thousand mile road trips like he did in the Avalon.
Second example...Retired couple, suburban home, it's ten miles to the nearest grocery store. They drove two gas cars for decades, but one of them only leaves the drive once or twice a week, and then, drives less than 50 miles. If her car weren't a hybrid that gets over 45 mpg average, a plug in EV would easily replace it, and probably cost only a couple grand more than they'd get in trade for the hybrid. If they expected to drive it more miles a week, or for more years ( she's going blind ) a used EV would be an obvious replacement for the old hybrid...cheaper, newer, simpler.
Used EV's are an obvious win unless your household only has one one car, or everyone in it drives more than 100 miles a day.
classicalgas
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The charging station distribution could change quickly, there are a few companies working on charge stations that don't require heavy duty grid hookups. Without those massive loads, it's cheaper, faster and easier to place them more often, or where they won;t see tons of use.
The Rise Of The Drop-In, Off-Grid EV Charging Station
The new EV charging station solution from DC Grid combines DC fast-charging technology with quick and simple no-trench installation.
cleantechnica.com
The basic idea is that the charge station has an energy buffer (battery pack or fuel cell) so it can pull low loads to fill, but dump lots of current to charge a car/cars quickly. Some even use PV panels to charge the buffer, for really remote locations with good solar exposure.
If there's a grid hookup, all the stations in a given area can work as load leveling buffers for the grid (absorbing excess daytime power and releasing it to the grid after dark, for instance)
offGridDownUnder
10 kW
A comment...
Most are responding to this thread as 'electric vs fossil fuel'. ICE means 'combustion', not necessarily fossil fuel.
The diesel cycle (developed by Rudolf Diesel) could use vegetable oil for farmer's tractors.
Another aspect from the 1970s (I was around then) is the conversion of gasoline engines (in cars) to burn alcohol - the main problems were that some components dissolved in alcohol and clogged the fuel filter and that alcohol is better with a higher compression ratiio than gasoline.
But both alcohol and vegetable oil are sustainable fuels.
A hydrogen fueled engine may be an ICE, although I wouldn't put a fuel cell into that category.
So, this thread appears to be more about the relative economics of moving from fossil fuel than about ICE vs electric.
Most are responding to this thread as 'electric vs fossil fuel'. ICE means 'combustion', not necessarily fossil fuel.
The diesel cycle (developed by Rudolf Diesel) could use vegetable oil for farmer's tractors.
Another aspect from the 1970s (I was around then) is the conversion of gasoline engines (in cars) to burn alcohol - the main problems were that some components dissolved in alcohol and clogged the fuel filter and that alcohol is better with a higher compression ratiio than gasoline.
But both alcohol and vegetable oil are sustainable fuels.
A hydrogen fueled engine may be an ICE, although I wouldn't put a fuel cell into that category.
So, this thread appears to be more about the relative economics of moving from fossil fuel than about ICE vs electric.
classicalgas
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People who like the idea of sticking with ICE ( using renewable fuels ) seem to be unaware of the basic futility of internal combustion compared to electric.
An ICE throws away ( at the very best) two thirds of the energy you put into it, as heat.
That's when it's moving the vehicle. Whenever the vehicle is stopped with the engine running, it's throwing away 100% of the energy in the fuel.
Then, since a running ice makes all that heat, you need a system to move it out of the engine and discard it...weight and complication
Since almost all car engines use reciprocating pistons, and vibrate, you need ways to keep the passengers from feeling too much of that, and a system to take noisy and toxic exhaust away from the passengers....more weight and complication
and a system to provide high pressure fuel to the engine in precise amounts, and a system to get that engine started...more weight and complication
and a pressurized oil system system to keep all those hot, thrashing parts from welding themselves to each other (and keep that lubricant relatively cool and clean)...more weight and complication.
An EV needs none of those things.
... and turns about 90% of the energy you put into it into forward motion.
...and wastes none of it when sitting still.
Then we have the energy costs involved in growing the feed materials for bio-based fuels, and in processing them... but I think I've made my point.
Yeah.. barring some unprecendented, large increase in the efficiency of ICEs.. i really think the ~90% efficient electric motor is gonna win, no matter the wonder fuel you cook up to fuel the ICE.
China is looking to produce batteries on insane scales now and i think that is going to lead to lower and lower battery prices over time... and ICE is struggling to scale as a transportation technology due to the pollution it creates... we're at an interesting tipping point right now.
China is looking to produce batteries on insane scales now and i think that is going to lead to lower and lower battery prices over time... and ICE is struggling to scale as a transportation technology due to the pollution it creates... we're at an interesting tipping point right now.
offGridDownUnder
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Wow. You make it sound really complicated.
Please note, I am strongly against fossil fuel use and in favour of renewables as well as not-poisoning the air-and-water-cleaning system (i.e. Nature). I'm just as happy if batteries or such meet those criteria to use electric (my own bikes do) and I'm also open to less-polluting renewable bio-fuels of various sorts.
I also understand that everything we do now generally pollutes (with poisons) so there's the question of how to trade off what we have to get to where we want to be.
And there's also the question of what 'the markets' lead to, which may be more of what this discussion is about.
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raylo32
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I really would like to see an electric future and believe we will... eventually. I just don't see it happening anytime soon. There are lots of good ideas to improve charging infrastructure and vehicle batteries certainly will continue to advance. But the sheer scale of getting there, especially in light of the logistical challenges (charging speeds and range) and high initial costs are going to make it painfully slow in absence of govt mandates, regulations, and universal adoption of standards. And cost for public charging needs to come down a lot closer to the basic resource cost and certainly shouldn't approach or surpass ICE fueling costs. But, being the cynic I am I believe the charging network vendors will never leverage that advantage in favor of drivers, but instead will try to squeeze us dry. And I don't see any scenario for the foreseeable future where there is any real competition where a driver could simply choose to go to a different and cheaper charging station. You're lucky to even find one that works now and then you just have to pay whatever it costs.
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Replace "charging" with "gas" and you could be describing the status quo with ICE cars. So what's the difference? If you have a gas car, you're totally locked in to an existing infrastructure and dependent on fluctuating gas prices. The only difference i see is that there's more gas stations, and that we've simply become accustomed to it.
If anything, you have more "fueling" options with an EV. You can charge at home. You can build a solar panel setup and charge off-grid. Can you do either of those effectively and cheaply, no, of course not. But the option is there, in a way that isn't there if your only transportation is a gas-powered car.
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